The 2026-27 NBA season is right around the corner, and with it comes heavy anticipation and a sea of hope for all 30 teams. Following a summer that was highlighted by several shocking trades and free agent signings, the landscape before us is highly competitive and particularly challenging to forecast. Very few teams got worse, but only one can win it all.
With opening night just a month away, here’s how I’d rank the entire league, in tiers that simultaneously reflect where they’ll finish in the regular-season standings and how likely it is that they’ll be the last squad standing.
Just Relegate Us Now
30. Sacramento Kings
My brain malfunctions whenever I think about this team. Domantas Sabonis is emotionally distraught whenever he looks at the roster sheet. Doug Christie—somehow, incredibly, still employed—sheds a tear whenever he’s reminded that Zach LaVine is his number one option. Ben Simmons lives? This is, on paper, one of the worst defenses ever assembled, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that rookie point guard Darius Acuff Jr.’s usage rate will exceed his field goal percentage. “Light the Beam” might as well have happened 35 years ago.
29. Milwaukee Bucks
I have no idea how Taylor Jenkins will establish a convincing identity with this random collection of cast-offs, journeymen, rookies, dudes looking to secure their next contract, and veterans who were initially acquired to complement a superstar who is no longer there. That’s, admittedly, a glass-half-empty point of view I hold despite actually liking (or at least being intrigued by) several players on this team. My fondness for someone like Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Brayden Burries isn’t enough for Milwaukee to stay within two touchdowns of most opponents, though. What’s the opposite of the whole being greater than the sum of its individual parts? That’s these Bucks. The pieces, understandably, do not fit. It’s a franchise going through a trauma, sitting in a transitory wasteland created by its own inability to accept reality.
A Disgracefully Impatient Excuse for a Basketball Team
28. Washington Wizards
I am baffled by how this team was built. What are the Wizards doing? Why are Khris Middleton and Deandre Ayton here? Does Trae Young’s contract deserve some kind of investigation? Will AJ Dybantsa have to fight for touches and shots? If Anthony Davis is awesome, would that even be a good thing? How will Brian Keefe juggle the need to develop some of Washington’s very real young talent and the organization’s clear desire to win as many games as it can? I genuinely have no idea.
(Slightly) Better Than You Think (but Still Pretty Bad)
27. Chicago Bulls
A page has been turned! The Bulls finally appear to be starting over. There’s now actual direction, a potential franchise cornerstone, and a couple of legitimately fun reasons to watch them on a regular basis. Caleb Wilson and Matas Buzelis are beacons of light for a fan base that hasn’t enjoyed a sunny day in at least 10 years, and Norm Powell’s contract should be leveraged to make the future more promising than it already may be.
26. Los Angeles Clippers
Ignore the humiliating scandal and debilitating punishment and just look at this roster. There are decent players here, including some elite 3-point shooters (Darius Garland, Max Strus, Rui Hachimura) and real defensive pests (Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr.). If Keaton Wagler is able to give them anything consistently positive as a backup point guard or secondary ball handler alongside Garland and Brandon Ingram—who, not for nothing, can score and made the All-Star team last year—he will ever so slightly alleviate some of the playmaking burden on L.A.’s two best players. Yanic Konan Niederhauser is a maniac (complimentary) who, if healthy, may be able to control the paint for 15-ish minutes a night. The Clippers won’t make the play-in or anything, but there are worse things than having a bunch of average role players who’ve already established what they can and can’t do on your team.
25. Memphis Grizzlies
The Ja Morant era has officially reached its end, and with it comes a never-ending sigh of relief. Instead of being stranded in purgatory, the Grizzlies already have a brand-new franchise player to lean on. Cam Boozer has size, skill, and unteachably selfless on-court qualities. Will he ever share the court with Zach Edey and Quinten Post? It’s the type of question all my true sickos out there are dying to see answered. Memphis’s ability to grab about 80 percent of its own missed shots for a few minutes and then make a line change and have four guards plus Isaiah Stewart in the game is why this team will be a League Pass staple in my home. Scotty Pippen Jr., Cam Spencer, and Ty Jerome all together at the same time? Say less. Throw Cedric Coward’s sophomore season into the discussion, and I’m not sure how many other teams can credibly stake a claim to being more worth your attention on a random Tuesday night.
24. Brooklyn Nets
I like this team more than most sane people should, but my cautious optimism will disappear if Michael Porter Jr. gets moved before the February trade deadline. Brooklyn’s best player is currently eligible for an extension; if Nets general manager Sean Marks doesn’t want to make an offer both sides can agree upon, this team will lose one of the league’s top off-ball scorers for nothing. Porter should’ve been an All-Star last season. He was excellent, propping up an undersized, inexperienced roster that didn’t have any competent ball handlers. The fact that the Nets offense was league average with MPJ on the court was a small miracle. Now, other veterans are in town. Julius Randle, warts and all, will look like Wilt Chamberlain when he’s compared to last season’s frontcourt rotation. Moe Wagner and Keon Ellis aren’t the sexiest names but can execute whatever game plan Jordi Fernández draws up every night. Youngsters Mikel Brown Jr. and Egor Demin have the talent to someday form a foundational backcourt, with the latter already showing genuine potential as a knockdown shooter who can make all the right passes out of the pick-and-roll. The frontcourt seems thin (and is), but lineups that feature MPJ, Randle, and Day’Ron Sharpe shouldn’t have an issue rebounding the ball.
23. Dallas Mavericks
I know it’s only September, but more people should be having conversations about Cooper Flagg’s second season. What’s the ceiling here? An All-Star with league-average true shooting? An All-NBA member who averages 27-8-6? Will any embarrassingly premature, albeit sort of respectable, MVP votes be cast in his honor? Despite having some real roster-related obstacles, Flagg displayed truly special qualities as a rookie whose statistical output was prioritized ahead of winning games—which is fine and made enough sense for where Dallas was. If Kyrie Irving isn’t traded, this year could be very different. The Mavericks are younger and faster and have more complementary pieces (like Santi Aldama) who can accelerate Flagg’s development.
Sad Play-In Hopefuls
22. Golden State Warriors
There’s pretty much no logical reason to feel optimistic about these Warriors, the oldest team in the league. It’s a bummer. Even if Steph Curry plays 80 games (which he won’t), Jimmy Butler makes the most miraculous recovery that any orthopedic surgeon has ever seen (sorry, nope), and Brandin Podziemski looks like an All-Star (I don’t even know why I typed this), it’s so hard to see everyone else on this talent-deprived ghost ship staying healthy enough to make noise in the Western Conference. Draymond Green is 36 years old. Al Horford is 40. Kristaps Porzingis moves like he’s 43. But for all the doom and gloom that comes when a curtain is about to close, there will still be plenty of games where all those guys see the floor, execute a gorgeous brand of basketball, put their pride on the line, and give themselves a chance to win.
21. Portland Trail Blazers
Portland’s vibes are giving “tomato sauce–soaked spaghetti sliding down a glass window.” It was building toward something kinda interesting last season. And now … this. Why is Ja Morant on the team, let alone penciled in as an opening-night starter? Who did Scoot Henderson offend, and is it too late for them to accept his apology? When will Deni Avdija—somehow the eighth-highest-paid Blazer—demand a trade? Is 6-foot-7 Toumani Camara the only playable power forward on this entire roster? What does Damian Lillard have left? Will someone rescue Jrue Holiday? Portland has talent, but very little of it makes sense together.
20. New Orleans Pelicans
The apathy in New Orleans is, for lack of a better word, unsettling. The Pelicans won 26 games last year with Zion Williamson pretty much as healthy as he’s ever been, and they still decided to run things back. Why should anyone think this year could be different? Well, allow me to answer my own rhetorical question with a semiserious answer: Dejounte Murray! I only half believe in Murray’s ability to stabilize lineups that were a train wreck without him last year, but the small-sample results after he returned from his Achilles injury were legitimately encouraging! He’s also an actual point guard on a decent roster that could be pretty efficient with more people who can dribble and pass. An actual conductor. That doesn’t mean the 2027 New Orleans Pelicans will remind anybody of the 1992 Dream Team, but there are enough pieces here to be competitive, particularly if Jamahl Mosley can instill a defensive identity.
May Hang a Banner If They Win a Playoff Series
19. Phoenix Suns
The Suns sneaked up on the league last year. In the aggregate, they cared about more possessions than their opponents, and it showed. I’m skeptical that it can happen again, especially if Jalen Green is healthy enough to lessen the defensive tenacity that lifted Phoenix to its shocking regular-season success. Maybe that criticism is a smidge unfair. Despite being an inefficient, high-usage player, Green had decent general lineup data last year. Phoenix was damn good when he shared the court with franchise mainstay Devin Booker, who quietly turns 30 next month and may need to have a career year if the Suns are going to exceed expectations yet again. I am obsessed with Khaman Maluach and think Oso Ighodaro is the most underrated big in the league, but the shoulder injury that will sideline Mark Williams for an extended time won’t help a team that was ultimately done in by its lack of size. Miles Bridges is the answer to no team’s tangible problems.
18. Charlotte Hornets
Even without LaMelo Ball’s eccentric flair and the hugely positive impact it had on Charlotte’s offense, there’s something to say about this group: It can really shoot and really rebound. This isn’t a collection of spot-up threats, either. The Hornets almost have too many movement shooters, if there is such a thing. There’s so much gravity, a ton of speed, and a style of play that leverages all of its moving parts at the same time. In that ecosystem, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel have plenty of room to spread their wings. One could even be an All-Star this season.
17. Miami Heat
Miami’s defense should be solid. Bam Adebayo, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and Erik Spoelstra’s broad playbook should get the job done. They’ll force turnovers, protect the defensive glass, deploy various zone coverages, and keep their opponents off balance. One minute they’re switching every screen, and the next they’re pouncing with a double-team. And if there’s anyone who can find ways to protect weaker individual defenders who pretty much have to be on the court because of their vital contributions on the other end (Tim Hardaway Jr. and Klay Thompson come to mind), it’s the longest-tenured head coach in the league. Where things get a little more uncertain is on offense. Last year, Spoelstra installed a singular offensive system that was allergic to pick-and-roll basketball. The result was a randomized blitzkrieg that didn’t have time to turn the ball over, rarely settled for midrange jump shots, and swarmed the paint. Now Giannis is here to either enhance or (more likely) upend that strategy. The Heat will still want to play fast but don't have enough ball handlers to really zip around in transition, and their overall 3-point shooting is just OK, which could be a problem for Antetokounmpo, who’s at his best when driving lanes are wide and the paint is clear.
16. Utah Jazz
I’m going to watch so many Jazz games this season. They’ve got an unknowably high offensive upside that I’ve been daydreaming about pretty much ever since they drafted Darryn Peterson. Will Hardy’s creative playbook should be able to maximize the skill and shotmaking ability that Utah’s new franchise player promises to add to a roster that already has such a unique combination of size and skill. Lauri Markkanen has been out of sight, out of mind for the past couple of years, but having an elite movement shooter who’s 7 feet tall makes everyone’s lives easier, including his frontcourt mate Jaren Jackson Jr. and Keyonte George, who showed last season that he can draw fouls at a high rate. Defense is another question—I wish Walker Kessler were still here—but the offensive firepower should win the Jazz a bunch of games.
15. Orlando Magic
Something has to give here. Orlando has the league’s third-highest payroll, a monstrous tax bill, and, not for nothing, zero above-average offensive seasons since Barack Obama was first elected president. Jamahl Mosley was replaced by first-year head coach Sean Sweeney this year. Maybe he will turn everything around. But on the personnel side, Orlando’s answer to a wildly disappointing campaign was … to bring back Nikola Vucevic? What? If Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, or Jalen Suggs gets moved before the trade deadline, don’t be surprised.
Paper-Thin Margin for Error, but Crazier Things Have Happened
14. Atlanta Hawks
Heading into last season’s playoffs, the Hawks appeared to be a juggernaut. To go along with a 20-6 record coming out of the All-Star break, Atlanta boasted the second-best defense in the NBA. Its starting lineup was awesome, and Quin Snyder was able to finally implement the up-tempo, pass-happy offensive system Trae Young’s presence didn’t allow. How much of that can carry over into this season, with Jalen Johnson one year older (and presumably motivated after a very disappointing postseason), Lu Dort’s junkyard defense replacing Zaccharie Risacher’s ability to sit on the bench, and a whole bunch of capable 3-point shooters? Dyson Daniels has found ways to impact winning (on offense!) without an outside shot and Nickeil Alexander-Walker just won Most Improved Player. This is a good team that could be aggressive on the trade market.
13. Indiana Pacers
I have no idea what to expect from the Pacers, and I’m pretty sure no team has a wider range of possible outcomes this season. Hopefully, Tyrese Haliburton can conduct Rick Carlisle’s beautifully unpredictable offense like he did pre-Achilles injury. If he can, they may win the East. If not, they may not make the playoffs. I'd feel more confident about this group’s ability to rekindle the magic they enjoyed during the 2024-25 postseason if they didn’t surrender their lottery pick to the Clippers. Daydreaming about these Pacers with Caleb Wilson or Darryn Peterson is a futile exercise, but, alas, we’re only human over here. Bennedict Mathurin and Myles Turner are gone, effectively replaced by Ivica Zubac and Kelly Oubre Jr. That’s good! But I still want to see how the holdovers who endured basketball hell last year look as they finally recover from what was one of the most devastating gut punches any team in league history has ever had to absorb.
12. Cleveland Cavaliers
Peyton Watson could be the piece Cleveland has spent the last few years searching for. The long, dynamic wing is just as likely to knock down a corner 3 as he is to spike someone else’s layup off the backboard. If you believe Watson’s growth was real last season—I do, enough to think he should be a Most Improved Player candidate—then his presence is also helpful in the potential opportunities he gives Kenny Atkinson to rest James Harden and Donovan Mitchell at the same time, or at least tinker with his rotation enough to allow Watson some time and space to spread his wings as the primary ball handler for a stint or two every night. Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson can shoot the crap out of the ball and Evan Mobley, who rules, is still here. But there are serious depth issues the Cavs will have to work through. A long-term injury to anyone in their starting lineup could spell their doom.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
Julius Randle has never been my cup of tea. He’s inefficient, erratic, and, in a basketball sense, greedy as hell. All are qualities that soured his on-court relationship with Anthony Edwards and helped rationalize Minnesota’s decision to dump his salary before making a blockbuster trade for LaMelo Ball. But Randle is also an innings eater during the regular season. He put up numbers, forced opponents to adjust, and quietly had a very positive impact on his team’s offense last season. (Even when Ant played, the Timberwolves offense was middling without Randle.) All this is to say, I’m more curious than bullish to see what Minny looks like after making the dramatic changes it did over the summer. Edwards still has another gear—horrifying thought—that he should reach sooner or later. But over the past couple years, this team could lean on its bravado and physical toughness whenever things got a little too turbulent. Without Randle, Naz Reid, and Donte DiVincenzo (who is still recovering from an Achilles injury), that crutch will morph into something else. Time will tell if change actually equals progress in Minnesota.
10. Philadelphia 76ers
Talent goes hand-in-hand with winning at the NBA’s highest level, and the Sixers probably have the most talent in the NBA. Hence, nobody should argue against their ceiling. It’s irrefutably sky high. But as I write this, several weeks before Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe (who’s quite possibly the biggest x-factor in the entire league) share the floor for the first time, the abundance of questions that relate to their collective health and non-negotiable need to compromise are a fair concern. Furthermore, can they defend at an above-average level? What’s the pecking order in crunch time? Will their locker room implode if they start the season 12-12 or lose five games in a row? There are very strong personalities on this team, swaths of pride, oceanic egos. That doesn’t mean they’re doomed to point fingers if things get off to a poor start, but it does matter. There’s more pressure on these Sixers than anybody else. (For what it’s worth, James has only won three playoff series since the bubble.) Bang or bust.
9. Los Angeles Lakers
There’s no need to overthink this. The Lakers spent a ton of money on a roster that doesn’t have any tradable draft picks. There are reasonable questions and cause for a degree of long-term defeatism. But in the here and now, they will be good. Perhaps, very, very good. Luka Doncic, a generational floor raiser who single-handedly guarantees elite offense, is just now entering his prime, perfectly positioned to win his first MVP award. Is his supporting cast perfect? No. Is it sufficient? Absolutely. Austin Reaves is a hyper efficient primary ball handler who gets to the line, finishes at the rim, creates his own shot, and knows how to shine when Doncic isn’t on the court. Elsewhere, most of Los Angeles’s new role players should be able to support those two on both ends. Ignore their contracts for a second: Walker Kessler, Collin Sexton, Quentin Grimes, Matisse Thybulle, and Sandro Mamukelashvili are all specialists who make sense on this team. For this exercise, that’s all that matters.
Title Contenders With a Puncher’s Chance
8. Denver Nuggets
As I asked last month, what the hell are the Nuggets doing? This organization spent the offseason undermining Nikola Jokic, the man most responsible for their only championship in franchise history. But until further notice, he is still a Nugget, and by law, whichever team happens to employ the world’s best, smartest, and most unselfish player must be taken seriously. They can win it all if everything goes right (i.e., Aaron Gordon stays healthy) and they catch a few lucky breaks. Jokic remains that special.
7. Detroit Pistons
Can they shoot enough 3s? Does Cade Cunningham have too much offensive responsibility on his shoulders? Will Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren evolve as independent shotmakers/creators? These are all understandable, significant questions worth asking about the Eastern Conference’s reigning no. 1 seed after a summer that saw them tweak their DNA. While there’s probably still some work to be done by Detroit’s front office, if the steps this organization made toward shifting its identity away from physicality to skill pay off, they’ll be even more formidable come next spring.
6. Toronto Raptors
I am, against my better judgement, forever a Kawhi Leonard optimist. It’s not that I turn a blind eye to the likelihood of his body crumbling at the absolute worst possible time. This is a very real possibility we’ve all witnessed four or five times in Leonard’s career. But when health trouble is literally the only hangup for someone who, as I write this column, is 100 percent fine and was last seen looking like an MVP candidate, I don’t really care as much. When his deadeye jumper, one-on-one expertise, on-ball defense, interior strength, vision, instinct, or awareness start to falter, come talk to me. Until then, Leonard is pretty much exactly what the Raptors need. And, conversely, Toronto’s infrastructure, young talent, and selflessly tenacious style of play is exactly what Leonard could stand for at this stage in his career. Scottie Barnes—who might be the most versatile defender in the NBA and may soon become the premier passer at his size and position—is an ideal co-pilot.
5. Houston Rockets
I find it easy to make excuses for what happened to the Rockets last year. Houston badly missed Fred VanVleet, then badly missed Steven Adams, then, in the playoffs, badly missed Kevin Durant. All those players are mission critical for these Rockets, which, given their ages and injury histories, would be extremely problematic if not for the supplementary muscle Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun will provide. Throw in a few up-and-coming-eye-of-the-beholder talents—Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr. (he’s still only 23!), and Tari Eason (who may soon find himself on the most team-friendly contract in the NBA)—and the promise of a severely pugilistic defense, and I’m … still sold!
4. Boston Celtics
I thought the Celtics were going to be terrible last season. In hindsight, that was foolish. They won 56 games and finished the regular season as one of the NBA’s most balanced, competent, and reliable teams despite not having their franchise superstar for all but 16 games. Assuming Jayson Tatum is back to his All-NBA self (not a given, but fair enough to presume), the 28-year-old’s presence should offset Jaylen Brown’s departure on a team that essentially replaced him with Paul George, Mitchell Robinson, and the great Mike Conley Jr. Defense, depth, athleticism, and lots and lots and lots of outside shooting are winning ingredients, all belonging to a group that happens to also be too disciplined to ever deviate beyond the periphery of their head coach’s pragmatic vision. Teams that want to beat the Celtics must do so knowing they will almost never beat themselves.
If You Aren’t Picking One of These Teams to Win It All, God Bless You
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
There are two ways to look at Oklahoma City. The first is as a prohibitive favorite that will roll to its second championship in three years if Jalen Williams’s hamstrings oblige—whether Chet Holmgren takes a step forward or not. The second is as a slightly-less-threatening juggernaut with real miles on its odometer (keep an eye on Alex Caruso) and some depth questions now that Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe are gone. I fall somewhere in the middle. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander probably won’t win his third straight MVP because, almost regardless of how well he plays, some voters will be hesitant to put him in historically rare air. But he’s still only 28 years old and by far the best scorer in the league, standing in front of what should still be by far the best defense in the league. Even with the Spurs standing in the way, a dynasty is still possible in OKC.
2. New York Knicks
At this point in time, it’s simultaneously valid and pointless to wonder if the 2026-27 New York Knicks will more closely resemble last year’s pretty good regular-season squad or the historic wrecking crew that demolished everyone in the playoffs (except CJ McCollum) and won the title. The defending champions don’t have anything to prove, per se, but Mitchell Robinson is no longer lurking in the paint as a walking second-chance opportunity, and the health/incredible shot-making they enjoyed during the postseason probably won’t carry through an 82-game season. But until someone beats the Knicks, they more than deserve to be in the top tier.
1. San Antonio Spurs
This has potential to be an epic revenge tour. Everyone who directly contributed to last season’s Finals team is back, plus Tobias Harris (who was just the third-leading scorer on a first-place team). The offense is relentless and versatile. The defense is a brick wall that can punch you in the face. Victor Wembanyama is somehow still only 22 years old, coming off a precedent-obliterating MVP-caliber campaign that was ultimately stifled by some shaky stamina in the playoffs. Dylan Harper is the prohibitive favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year until/unless he forces Mitch Johnson to insert him into the starting lineup sometime before Christmas. Steph Castle should make his first All-Star team. All the above, and everyone else, is pissed off, motivated, and now understands what it takes to win at the highest level. Good luck beating this team four times in a seven-game series!
