Over the past week and a half, The Ringer has gone deep on each division as the start of the 2026 NFL season approaches. So far, we’ve covered the NFC East, the AFC East, the NFC North, the AFC North, the NFC West, the AFC West, and the NFC South. Now, finally, we’re on to the AFC South. Are the Jaguars and Texans both Super Bowl contenders? Can Daniel Jones regain his 2025 form with the Colts? And how will we look at Cam Ward after his sophomore campaign? Let’s dive in!
Houston Texans
What’s at Stake for the Texans
There might be more at stake for C.J. Stroud this season than any other quarterback in the NFL. The Texans have him under contract through 2027 on his fifth-year option, but he is now eligible for a contract extension. If he has a great season, Stroud will almost certainly be paid at the top of the quarterback market (over $60 million per year!). If he struggles in 2026, the Texans might have to think long and hard about whether he’s their future.
Reasons for Optimism
The Texans are my pick to have the best defense in the NFL in 2026. They finished last season second in expected points added per drive. They were fifth in 2024. What I love about Houston’s defense is that it makes opponents feel it. It operates with a physicality and violence that is unmatched. Opposing offenses know going into each matchup against Houston that it won’t be a fun time. That defense has shown that it can deliver against top-level offenses. Against Josh Allen and the Bills last year, the defense delivered a 73rd percentile performance in terms of EPA per drive. In the playoffs against Drake Maye and the Patriots, it produced an 80th percentile performance (and Houston still lost; more on that in a moment!). In fact, there were only two games all season (playoffs included) in which the Texans defense rated below average in EPA per drive.
From a defensive personnel standpoint, the Texans are bringing back mostly the same group. Plus, they signed safety Reed Blankenship and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney while drafting run-stopping defensive tackle Kayden McDonald. Up front, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are the best defensive end pairing in the NFL, and Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are in the running for best cornerback duo.
The Texans went 12-5 last season, and there was nothing fluky about it. By DVOA, they were the NFL’s fourth-best team—and no. 1 in the AFC. If you are looking for a team that could follow the blueprint of the past two Super Bowl champions—the 2025 Seahawks and the 2024 Eagles—the Texans check a lot of the boxes: a great defense, lots of talent, an offense that can be good enough, and a quarterback who can get hot at the right time.
Reasons for Concern
OK, let’s talk about the quarterback and play a game in which we ask: Is C.J. Stroud good? Let’s start with the regular-season stats.
C.J. Stroud in the Regular Season
This is the look of a high-variance quarterback! In three seasons, Stroud has ranked as high as seventh and as low as 26th in EPA per pass play. If you’re a hater, you can say: Great rookie season, but once the rest of the NFL got film on him, he was well below average in success rate. If you’re a Stroud fan, you could point out that he’s really had only one bad year to go along with two above-average seasons.
Where do I stand? I find myself being cautiously optimistic. Stroud looked broken when he threw four interceptions, including a pick-six, in that divisional-round playoff loss to the Patriots last season. There’s no sugarcoating it. But I like bigger samples, and overall, Stroud has been an above-average quarterback in two of his three seasons, especially in 2023, when Stroud showed he has a high ceiling.
So what will 2026 bring? On one hand, Houston rebuilt its offensive line (yes, again). But the team’s run game has been consistently awful over the past three years, and I don’t know that it’ll be much better now. O-line guru Brandon Thorn has Houston’s offensive line at 27th in his preseason rankings. Because the run game and the line have been consistently bad, the offense’s ceiling has been capped: 17th (2023), 25th (2024), and 23rd (2025) in EPA per drive over the past three seasons.
How I See It
There have been times this summer when I’ve considered making the Texans my AFC Super Bowl pick, but here’s what’s stopped me: Why is this season going to be different for them on offense? I don’t think the offensive line will be much better. I like David Montgomery, but the addition of a veteran running back like that rarely moves the needle. The Texans’ pass catching group is mostly the same as it was last season, aside from the late trade for Kayshon Boutte, who had fallen down the Patriots’ depth chart. The offensive coordinator is the same. And Stroud is a wild card. Again, this offense hasn’t ranked above 17th in any of the past three seasons.
I think they’re a contender. I think they’re a really good team. But I don’t trust the offense to be good enough in a big spot.
Projected record: 11-6
Jacksonville Jaguars
What’s at Stake for the Jaguars
The Jaguars should come out of this season being able to answer this question: Do they have one of the better head coach–quarterback pairings in the NFL? The job that Liam Coen did with Trevor Lawrence last season was impressive: Jacksonville went 13-4, and it looked like a legit Super Bowl contender down the stretch. But it was one season. Is this organization built to contend for the long haul?
Reasons for Optimism
The Jaguars were legitimately one of the best teams in the league in 2025. They finished sixth in DVOA, and their plus-138 scoring margin in the regular season was fourth behind only the Seahawks, Rams, and Patriots. While Jacksonville’s offense grabbed a lot of the headlines, it was actually the defense that led the way. The Jaguars defense ranked fifth in EPA per drive, ranked seventh in success rate, and allowed explosive plays at the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Offensively, Coen looks like he has the goods. He did a terrific job with Baker Mayfield in 2024 as Tampa’s offensive coordinator and then got Lawrence back on track last season. The Jaguars didn’t have their full group on offense for the entire season. They really took off after an in-season trade for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Pass catchers Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Meyers should complement each other well and give Lawrence plenty of options.
If you like teams that can win in different ways, the Jaguars fit the bill.
Reasons for Concern
Lawrence is entering his sixth season, yet it’s still hard to know exactly what you’ll get from him in any given year. Let’s forget about the rookie season with Urban Meyer. Here’s how Lawrence’s last four seasons look in terms of EPA per pass play.
Trevor Lawrence EPA/Pass Play Since 2022
Granted, there have been times when the Jaguars have been plagued by drops, penalties, and other factors that are out of Lawrence’s control. But the numbers here paint the picture of a high-variance quarterback who can look like an MVP candidate at times but is probably more likely to settle into the NFL’s middle tier of starting quarterbacks. There’s a case that the public perception of the Jaguars offense last year doesn’t exactly match the numbers. Lawrence was 18th in EPA per pass play, and the offense was 14th in EPA per drive. Again, there’s no denying that Jacksonville’s offense performed better in the second half of the season, but overall, this was not the unit carrying the team to the AFC South title.
There are some concerning regression possibilities as well. The Jaguars were 6-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. They ranked fourth in EPA gained on turnovers. And they were seventh in adjusted games lost, which measures how badly each team was hurt by injuries. They lost starting running back Travis Etienne Jr. and linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency as well.
How I See It
My biggest issue with Jacksonville is that I don’t trust general manager James Gladstone. I hope 2025 first-round pick Travis Hunter has a Hall of Fame career, but trading up to take a two-way player who might not be elite at either receiver or corner seemed absurd at the time. While Gladstone seems to be convinced he has an edge in the draft, I’m really not sure that’s the case.
Here’s what I’ve learned writing these division previews. I have become a “Can we see it again???” guy. That’s especially true when talking about Jacksonville. I liked what I saw from Coen last year. He’s a fun character. He also seems quite volatile, and I’m not sure how this will look if things start to go badly. Lawrence is a high-variance QB. And Jacksonville does not have the deepest or most complete roster. (Thorn has their O-line rated as the third worst.) We saw the high ceiling last year, but it feels like a step back could be in the cards in 2026.
Projected record: 9-8
Indianapolis Colts
What’s at Stake for the Colts
Everything! This franchise could have more turnover at every level than any other team next year if it delivers another mediocre season. The Colts have gone five straight seasons without making the playoffs and seven straight without winning a playoff game. At some point, enough will be enough, and general manager Chris Ballard will have to go. Head coach Shane Steichen is 25-26 without a playoff berth in three seasons. And the Colts can move on from quarterback Daniel Jones after this season if they want to. If things go well, you run it back with all three. If the Colts struggle, it feels like they’ll be heading into the start of a new era in 2027.
Reasons for Optimism
Through Week 12 last season, the Colts had the best(!) offense in the NFL in terms of EPA per drive. They were creating explosive plays at the highest rate and also had the league’s best rushing success rate. Steichen was on fire. His overall record as a head coach does not reflect the fact that he’s been a wizard with bad quarterback situations. If there’s one thing that should give Colts fans hope, it’s that Steichen will squeeze whatever juice is available out of this offense.
Jones, meanwhile, was in the midst of a career revival before he was injured in Week 13. He ranked eighth in EPA per pass play and fifth in success rate up to that point. So can he do it again in 2026, less than a year removed from a torn Achilles tendon? Jones has the same play caller in Steichen, and the Colts go into the season with what looks like a top-five offensive line. Jonathan Taylor is back. And so is wide receiver Alec Pierce.
The Colts defense could be one of the NFL’s most improved units. Corner Sauce Gardner was on the field for just four games last year after the big in-season trade. Cornerback Charvarius Ward played in just seven games. And defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was healthy for only 10. Assuming those key players will be on the field more this year, and Indy can get contributions from its defense-heavy rookie class, this unit will have a top-10 ceiling.
Reasons for Concern
Last year was a huge outlier season for Jones. Remember, this was a quarterback the Giants quit on and the Vikings let walk. Here’s how his career has gone.
Daniel Jones Career EPA/Pass Play
There are a couple of spikes in there (2022, 2025). If the supporting cast and coaching are good, and if Jones is healthy, he can offer above-average quarterback play. But the floor is quite low. And this season, Jones is coming off a serious injury. All signs this summer have been positive, but still, it’s hard to believe he’ll look like the same guy. The Colts traded away receiver Michael Pittman Jr. in the offseason, and Pierce missed much of the summer as he recovered from an ankle injury.
And then there’s the question of how much you believe your eyes from last year. Even before the Achilles injury, Jones was showing signs that his play was coming back down to earth. His last three full games before the injury were all below average in terms of EPA per pass play.
How I See It
Everything about the Colts’ 2026 profile screams mediocrity. Steichen has won either eight or nine games every season. Across his career, Jones has been below average. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has coached mostly mediocre defenses. And the roster is meh. If some bounces go their way, the Colts could compete for a wild-card spot. But it sure feels like the most likely scenario is more of the same.
Projected record: 8-9
Tennessee Titans
What’s at Stake for the Titans
Let’s play a game of: I’m just a guy asking a question. What happens if the Titans have the worst record in the NFL this season, land the top pick, and have a chance to draft Arch Manning (or whoever ends up being the best quarterback prospect)? Yeah, that’s what’s at stake this season. The Titans need to know by the end of Cam Ward’s sophomore campaign whether he’s definitely the guy they’re moving forward with.
Reasons for Optimism
Rookie seasons for quarterbacks can lie to us. Caleb Williams struggled as a rookie. After a strong second season with the Bears, it seems like everyone views Williams as a legit franchise guy. Josh Allen struggled as a rookie. Now he’s won an MVP and looks like a future Hall of Famer. Trevor Lawrence struggled as a rookie. Last year, his team won 13 games. You get the point. At a bare minimum, you want to see a high first-round pick on a bad team flash potential during his rookie season. You want to see that, from a physical perspective, he can do the job. I think that’s the case with Ward.
Ward’s supporting cast is better in 2026 than it was last season. The Titans drafted Carnell Tate and signed Wan’Dale Robinson to go along with Calvin Ridley at wide receiver. The Titans made moves to fit new head coach Robert Saleh’s vision for the defense. They acquired edge defender Jermaine Johnson II, signed defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers, and used a first-round pick on defensive lineman Keldric Faulk. In the secondary, they added a couple of corners in Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott. In his last stop as a head coach, Saleh did a nice job with the Jets defense. The hope is that he can turn this group around as well.
Reasons for Concern
OK, where do we want to start? Last year was bad for Ward, even if we do adjust for how hard it is to be a rookie. Over the last 10 seasons, among qualifying rookie quarterbacks, Ward’s season ranks 26th out of 32 in terms of EPA per pass play. The only rookie quarterbacks who were worse: Justin Fields, DeShone Kizer, Zach Wilson, C.J. Beathard, Bryce Young, and Josh Rosen. None of those quarterbacks got second deals with the teams that drafted them (though Young’s situation in Carolina is still TBD). It’s certainly still possible that Ward will become a quality NFL starter. To say it’s likely, based on NFL history, probably isn’t accurate.
Let’s move on to the structure around him and start with a review of how the last three years have gone for new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll:
2023: Giants offense ranked 29th in EPA per drive, and the team went 6-11.
2024: Giants offense ranked 29th in EPA per drive, and the team went 3-14.
2025: Daboll was fired after a 2-8 start. The QB he couldn’t win with in New York (Daniel Jones) led the NFL’s top-ranked offense and looked like a completely different guy in a new environment away from Daboll.
So why are we convinced that Daboll is the guy to get the most out of Ward??? Because he coordinated good offenses with Josh Freakin’ Allen??? The NFL confounds me sometimes. Oh, by the way, the Titans might have the worst offensive line in the NFL.
Defensively, I like Saleh as a coach, but he’ll probably need some time to fix that group. In his first season with the Jets, their defense ranked dead last in DVOA. Last year’s 49ers were decimated by injuries, but still, they ranked 27th in defensive DVOA under Saleh.
How I See It
If the game slows down for Ward, he has the talent to be one of the surprises of the 2026 season. And it’s possible that I’m being too harsh on Daboll, and he’ll be able to build a scheme that fits Ward’s talents. And maybe Saleh won’t need as much time to turn around Tennessee’s defense.
But I think you can probably tell by now what I really think. I think this will be another tough season for the Titans.
Projected record: 5-12
