The Ringer is going deep on each division as the start of the 2026 NFL season approaches. So far, we’ve covered the NFC East, the AFC East, the NFC North, and the AFC North. Now we’re on to the NFC West. Are the Seahawks lined up for a repeat? Can the Rams live up to the hype? Are the 49ers already having a season from hell? Should the Cardinals be relegated? Let’s dive in!
Los Angeles Rams
What’s at Stake for the Rams
Everything? I don’t want to make it sound like the Rams definitely have a one-year championship window, but Matthew Stafford is 38 years old, they spent a first-round pick on Ty Simpson, and they traded for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie. They addressed other weaknesses in free agency. Oh, and Aaron Donald came out of retirement! Other than using the Simpson pick on another position, I’m not sure there’s really anything else the Rams could have done to better position themselves to make a run this season. Now all they have to do is go win the Super Bowl, because anything short of that will feel like a failure.
Reasons for Optimism
The truth is, even if they didn’t do anything of significance this offseason, the Rams still would have been on the short list of Super Bowl favorites. They went 12-5 against the NFL’s fourth-hardest schedule last year. They went toe-to-toe with the eventual Super Bowl champion Seahawks on multiple occasions. It was those two teams and then everybody else. As long as Sean McVay is the head coach, the foundation in Los Angeles will be strong. He’s 92-57 (a .617 winning percentage) in his career and has had a winning record in eight of nine seasons. The Rams had the NFL’s best offense last season based on expected points added per drive, and they’ve been good every season that Stafford has stayed healthy. Puka Nacua is one of the NFL’s best wide receivers, and the Rams have an elite run game with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
The defense let them down in the NFC championship game against the Seahawks, but that group was fourth in DVOA during the regular season. Adding Garrett is huge because it builds on a pass rush that was already a strength. The Rams were second in pressure rate and ninth in sack rate last year. Now they’re adding a dude who had 23 sacks last season. For Garrett, this is the best group of defensive teammates he’s ever played with. Every week, offenses will build entire game plans to keep him from wrecking the game, and that’ll make life easier for his teammates.
There’s just a lot to like here. The Rams have a coach and quarterback who can problem-solve against great defenses. The offense can gash you on the ground or burn you with explosives. And the defense figures to have an elite pass rush. There is one team that I project to have both a top-five offense and a top-five defense. It’s the Rams.
More NFL Season Previews
Reasons for Concern
A few weeks ago, I was at a dinner (flex) where a friend proclaimed: “The Rams are not winning the Super Bowl!” Others at the table pointed out that such a take lacks juice. Of course, the most likely scenario is that they won’t win the Super Bowl. The Rams are heavy favorites at +550. But +550 translates to about a 15.4 percent chance to win the title. The point is: Yes, the Rams have the best chance of any team to win the Super Bowl, but it is far more likely that something will go wrong and they’ll end up falling short.
So what could actually go wrong? Maybe the offensive line won’t be great. But I kind of trust McVay and Stafford to be able to scheme around that. The Rams don’t have great wide receiver depth behind Nacua and 33-year-old Davante Adams. But wasn’t that the case last year? And they still had the NFL’s best offense. Maybe injuries will catch up to Stafford. OK. But you could say that about any team’s starting quarterback. Stafford played in all 17 games last season and won his first MVP.
The linebackers aren’t great? They’re not deep at corner? They face the second-hardest schedule? All true. Maybe Nacua will continue to be a mess off the field. Or maybe McVay will turtle with his in-game decision-making. Those things are certainly possible. But again, we’re digging pretty deep here!
How I See It
I am Team Content, so every bone in my body has wanted to zag against the Rams hype. But all of the actual reasons I could come up with felt flimsy and applied to pretty much every other team in the NFL.
Simple exercise: How many teams can you identify that check the following boxes?
- You trust the coach.
- You trust the quarterback.
- You trust the pass rush.
It’s not a long list! I know it’s not quite that simple. But also: It kind of might be that simple? Bad things that are hard to predict right now might happen to the Rams. But given what we know at this very moment, of course they are legit Super Bowl contenders.
Projected record: 13-4
Seattle Seahawks
What’s at Stake for the Seahawks
One Super Bowl title is nice. But going back-to-back puts a team in a different category. It’s happened only nine times in the Super Bowl era, and the Seahawks have a real chance to be no. 10. When you win two in a row, you automatically receive a ticket to every “greatest teams of all time” discussion. That’s what the Seahawks are gunning for this season.
Reasons for Optimism
The way I see it, Mike Macdonald enjoys two things:
- Coaching elite defenses
- Squeezing into smedium tri-blend T-shirts
And he’s all out of tri-blend T-shirts.
OK, not sure I landed the plane there, but it’s a new season, and I’m trying things.
This feels wild to say, given that Macdonald hasn’t yet celebrated his 40th birthday, but he’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory. I really think you could hand him almost any defensive roster in the NFL and he’d find a way to produce a top-10 unit. The Seahawks defense ranked first in EPA per drive last season. Yes, it has talented players. But more importantly, it has a coach with a clear vision for how to use those players. Nothing the Seahawks did last year felt fluky. Seattle lost a few players in free agency, but the core pieces on Macdonald’s defense are back, and I see a group that should once again be among the best in the NFL.
But with Macdonald, it’s not just about coaching up the defense. What I find most impressive about the Seahawks is their consistent competitiveness. They had a bye in Week 10 of 2024, Macdonald’s first season. Since then, the Seahawks have gone 23-5, and only one team has beaten them by more than four points in that span. Let me repeat: ONE LOSS BY MORE THAN FOUR POINTS IN THEIR LAST 28 GAMES! That’s absurd. This team has just been really hard to play against for a year and a half.
Offensively, quarterback Sam Darnold is coming off of an impressive season in which he ranked 10th in EPA per pass play and sixth in dropback success rate. And the Seahawks have tremendous continuity. The only new projected starter on offense is rookie running back Jadarian Price, who takes over for Kenneth Walker III.
Reasons for Concern
While the offensive roster is largely the same, the Seahawks lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who is now the Raiders’ head coach. Replacing Kubiak with Brian Fleury adds an element of uncertainty, as he’s never before called offensive plays. He could be better than Kubiak. He could be worse. He could be exactly the same. We just won’t know until Fleury does the job.
It’s important to examine the bar that Fleury is trying to clear. The Seahawks offense overachieved last season, but it wasn’t a juggernaut. Darnold played well, and that unit created explosive plays at a high rate. But the run game was mediocre for most of the regular season, and the offense overall finished 16th in EPA per drive.
My big concern with the Seahawks is that their offensive depth could get tested more this season. Last year, according to adjusted games lost, which measures injury luck, the Seahawks had the third-healthiest offense in the NFL. Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba feels like one of the most indispensable non-quarterbacks in the NFL given how the Seahawks funnel targets to him. Any injuries up front could have a real domino effect. When Darnold was kept clean last year, he ranked seventh in EPA per pass play. When he faced pressure, he ranked 29th.
How I See It
Inside their building, the Seahawks have to be loving all the hype that the Rams are getting. The Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champs, and they’re not even favored to win their own division. I see a high floor for this team. They’ll have a great defense. They’ll be well-coached. And they’ll be consistently competitive. I could see a slight step back on offense given the coordinator change and the potential for their depth to get tested more. But this still looks like one of the best teams in the NFL.
Projected record: 11-6
San Francisco 49ers
What’s at Stake for the 49ers
Once again, it’s Kyle Shanahan’s quest to finally win a Super Bowl. Shanahan turned in one of the best coaching jobs of his career last season, but in the end, there was an obvious gap between the 49ers and truly elite teams like the Seahawks and Rams. Heading into most seasons, you can find someone who is picking the 49ers to get over the hump, but I’m not sure that’s the case this year. It feels like they’ve had a summer from hell. Will that carry over into the regular season, or do they have some sleeper potential in the NFC?
Reasons for Optimism
Shanahan is a skilled offensive coach, and when starting quarterback Brock Purdy is on the field, the 49ers win games at a very high rate. Last year, San Francisco finished second in offensive DVOA. It’s easy to forget now, but there were times during the regular season when it was shocking for a San Francisco drive not to end in a touchdown. Those results are especially impressive when you consider that the Niners had the sixth-worst injury luck on offense and endured an eight-game stretch in which Mac Jones was the starter.
Here’s where the 49ers have finished in EPA per drive over the past five seasons:
Simply, this has been a reliable offense—especially when Purdy has been healthy. The 49ers are 30-15 in 45 games with Purdy as their starter, and over the past three seasons, Purdy ranks first in both EPA per pass play and dropback success rate. We can say with confidence that the passing offense will operate at a high level as long as Shanahan is calling the plays and Purdy is in the huddle.
On paper, the supporting cast of Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Mike Evans looks promising, but we know it’s not quite that simple (more on that in a moment). Normally, at this point, I would point out that the 49ers ranked 28th in AGL last year and tell you that if they just get league-average injury luck, the arrow should be pointing up. But we’ve all been paying attention to the 49ers’ massive injury list throughout the preseason and know that those rules don’t apply to them (I am showing great restraint by not making an electrical substation joke here!), so I won’t insult your intelligence and will instead just move on.
Reasons for Concern
I have quite a few. Let’s start on the defensive side of the ball. This unit was decimated by injuries last year and finished 26th in EPA per drive. A few months ago, I thought that maybe they would bounce back. But now I can’t quite get there. Edge rusher Nick Bosa missed nearly a month of practice this summer because of tendinitis in his surgically repaired right knee. 2025 first-round pick Mykel Williams is out for at least the first four games as he recovers from a torn ACL. And the signs have not been encouraging for second-year defensive tackle Alfred Collins, who had surgery on his shoulder in the offseason. The 49ers traded for Osa Odighizuwa earlier this year, and he now appears to be the only sure thing on a pass rush unit that finished 32nd in pressure rate last season.
While I have faith in Shanahan and Purdy, I see an old, fragile team when I look at the offense. Kittle turns 33 in October and is trying to return from an Achilles tendon injury he suffered in January. Evans is 33, missed nine games last season with the Bucs, and was sidelined at times during training camp. McCaffrey is 30 and coming off a season in which he had 450 touches—65 more than any other running back! And left tackle Trent Williams is 38.
And I haven’t even mentioned the serious car crash that Kyle Shanahan was in or made a joke about how what happens in East Palestine, Ohio, should stay in East Palestine, Ohio. I’m exhausted just writing this section. Quite simply, it feels like there are a lot of things that can go wrong or already have gone wrong with this football team.
How I See It
The 49ers went 12-5 last season, but they were 5-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their .833 winning percentage in those games was the highest of any team. If this summer had gone differently or if I really felt like they had a chance to get league-average injury luck, I could make the case for San Francisco being a Super Bowl sleeper. But in reality, I see a defense that’s likely to be bad and an offense that’s likely to take a step back from last season. It’s entirely possible that we’ll have a January 2027 discussion about where the 49ers go from here.
Projected record: 9-8
Arizona Cardinals
What’s at Stake for the Cardinals
Absolutely nothing. This team is irrelevant except for the jokes (oh, and fantasy and gambling too, I guess). Their ownership is among the worst in the league. As an organization, they never seem to have a plan. And this season, they have the hardest schedule in the NFL. But other than all that, things are going great in Arizona.
Reasons for Optimism
What’s that? Your eyes are getting tired? OK, fine. We can make this quick. The Cardinals’ offensive personnel is not terrible. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett ranked 23rd in EPA per pass play last year. That’s below average but not a disaster. The offensive line could wind up being mediocre. Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Kendrick Bourne actually make a pretty decent pass catching group. There could be stretches when this offense looks OK.
The Cardinals were a bad team last year, but they also got the worst injury luck in the NFL and were 2-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Maybe they won’t get quite as unlucky this season.
Reasons for Concern
They were the last team that should have been spending a first-round pick on a running back. The selection of Jeremiyah Love (and to be clear, I hope he has a Hall of Fame career!) was a clear indication that this is a directionless franchise. Then the way they used Love in the preseason made it clear that this new coaching staff is in over its head. Mike LaFleur picked Nathaniel Hackett to be the team’s offensive coordinator, one of the most uninspired hires in recent memory. LaFleur and Hackett then decided to give Love 14 (!) touches in a preseason game, and the rookie suffered a high ankle sprain late in that contest. I’m not kidding when I say that process told me all I need to know about whether this coaching staff has a chance. (Spoiler: It does not.)
How I See It
If the Cardinals played in a bad division like the NFC South, and if I thought the coaching staff was mildly interesting, I might talk myself into the Cardinals potentially being a frisky, entertaining team. Again, they’ve got a decent number of competent players. But in this division against this schedule? I think it’s going to be mostly ugly.
Projected record: 3-14
