The Ringer is going deep on each division as the start of the 2026 NFL season approaches. So far, we’ve covered the NFC East, the AFC East, and the NFC North. Now we’re on to the AFC North. Is new head coach Jesse Minter exactly what Lamar Jackson needs to get the Ravens over the hump? Are the Bengals a sleeper Super Bowl contender? What does change look like in Pittsburgh? And can the Browns’ young talent make them frisky? Let’s dive in!
Cincinnati Bengals
What’s at Stake for the Bengals
When you have an elite quarterback in his prime, you can’t afford to waste any years. Joe Burrow turns 30 (!) in December, and he’s talked all offseason about feeling a sense of urgency. The Bengals have missed the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. If they underwhelm again, it seems like something (head coach?) will have to change.
Reasons for Optimism
Let me come clean here: I fall for the Bengals every year. It’s an annual September tradition. Kids go back to school. I contemplate quitting golf because I stunk it up all summer. And I consider making the Bengals my Super Bowl pick. I am a creature of habit, and this is how I mark the passage of time and the changing of seasons. I just needed to get that out of the way so that you know where I’m coming from.
But this year, there really are legit reasons to be optimistic about the Bengals. I swear! Let’s start with Burrow. I’m sensing that there is backlash brewing. He’s overrated. He’s living off that one Super Bowl run. Does he even know how to use a telescope? I don’t buy it. My Burrow analysis is pretty simple: As long as he’s healthy, the Bengals offense will be good. Last year, when Burrow was on the field, the Bengals offense performed like a 74th-percentile unit in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play—roughly at the same level as the Bears. In 2024, the offense ranked sixth in EPA per play. In 2023, Burrow was injured. But in 2022, they also ranked sixth. This group has actually been quite consistent as a top-quartile unit pretty much every year. I think that’ll continue. They still have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. They were sixth in rushing DVOA last season. And the offensive line has solidified. Offensive line expert Brandon Thorn has them ranked 14th in his preseason projections. Burrow was pressured at the 12th-lowest rate of any starter last season, and he took sacks at the lowest rate of his career. Add it all up, and I see an offense that will once again work quite well.
The defense is an obvious question mark. The Bengals ranked 29th in EPA per drive last season. In the offseason, they traded for Dexter Lawrence and signed veteran defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe. They bolstered their secondary by signing veteran safety Bryan Cook. They’ve got a couple of talented corners in DJ Turner and Dax Hill. I’m not trying to convince you that they’re suddenly the ’85 Bears. But the bullish case for the Bengals is that the defense can be competent.
A couple of other things are working in Cincinnati’s favor. One, they have the third-easiest schedule if you go by preseason Super Bowl odds.
And two, they are likely to benefit from turnover regression. The Bengals ranked 30th in turnover EPA last year. Opponents scored a whopping nine (!) defensive touchdowns against them. That was despite the fact that Burrow had the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of any starting quarterback, according to Pro Football Focus. In other words, this was a case of really, really bad luck, and it’s unlikely to repeat.
Reasons for Concern
There’s a chance that this season will just look a lot like the past three seasons. Burrow, Chase, and Higgins will play well. The offensive stats will look good. But the defense just won't be good enough. Burrow will get emo in his December press conferences. We'll all speculate about whether Zac Taylor will be fired. And we'll vow to never get fooled by this team again. (OK, that last one mostly applies to me.)
The Bengals gave up a first-round pick for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, who had 0.5 sacks, eight QB hits, and four tackles for loss for the Giants last season. Was Lawrence bad or just uninterested in playing on a noncompetitive team? The answer to that question could determine whether the Bengals should be viewed as an actual contender. I have questions about the pass rush, the linebacker corps, and the defensive coordinator (Al Golden, back for a second year). Again, there are no guarantees that the offseason moves will provide vastly different results.
Offensively, the Bengals need to find ways to create more explosive plays in the passing game. Too often it was Burrow in the shotgun, diagnosing the coverage, and taking what the defense gave him. He’s capable of moving the ball that way, but when you have Chase and Higgins, there should be more opportunities for home runs. That’s one reason why the Bengals appear to finally be implementing more under center/play-action. But Burrow has been resistant to these schemes in the past, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll take to them this year.
The final issue is Burrow’s health. He’s missed significant time in three of his six NFL seasons. By all accounts, he’s been healthy all summer. And while it’s impossible to predict quarterback injuries, it’s fair to point out Burrow's durability issues.
How I See It
Over the past four seasons, even with Burrow’s injuries, the Bengals have ranked 10th on offense and 29th on defense EPA per drive. Again, this shouldn’t be a complicated analysis. It’s quite obvious which side of the ball has let them down over and over and over again.
So yeah, I’m falling for it again. I think that the offense will be good, and I think that the defense will be good enough when you factor in the easy schedule. I have the Bengals winning the division, and they look like a legit Super Bowl contender to me.
Projected record: 11-6
Baltimore Ravens
What’s at Stake for the Ravens
When you have an elite quarterback in his prime, you can’t afford to waste years. Does that sound familiar? Yes, it’s the same thing I wrote about the Bengals and Burrow! Just checking to see whether you were paying attention. But it’s true. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP and a three-time first-team All-Pro. Yet he’s never played in the Super Bowl, he’s entering his age-29 season, and the Ravens appear to be staring down yet another bizarre contract situation with Jackson, whose current deal would include an $84 million cap hit next season. The whole point of firing John Harbaugh and hiring Jesse Minter was to finally get over the hump with Jackson. That’s what the 2026 season is about for the Ravens.
Reasons for Optimism
There are quite a few, but I'll start with the new head coach. Minter proved with the Chargers that he’s an adept defensive coordinator who can do more with less. Los Angeles’s defense finished seventh in EPA per drive last season and was sixth in 2024. Go look at those Chargers depth charts. They were not loaded with talent. This Ravens defense, meanwhile, has one of the NFL’s best defensive players in safety Kyle Hamilton, and they’ve poured valuable draft resources into the secondary in recent years with the additions of corner Nate Wiggins and safety Malaki Starks. There are young, talented pieces to work with, and Minter’s track record suggests that he’ll get the most out of them. From an overall team perspective, this Baltimore situation felt like it was screaming for a new voice. While there are no guarantees, it’s entirely possible that Minter will provide an upgrade over Harbaugh.
Offensively, the Ravens are transitioning to a new scheme with coordinator Declan Doyle. The goal will be to build a strong run game that can mix in a high volume of play-action that allows Jackson to rip throws to the middle of the field and create explosive plays. The Ravens have had a (mostly) high-floor, high-ceiling offense with Jackson, and he could look like an MVP once again in this scheme.
The bottom line is that the Ravens haven’t lost a lot during the Jackson era—he has a career record of 76-31 in the regular season. And they are facing the NFL’s fifth-easiest schedule. The step back that they took last year could end up being a good thing because it forced an organizational reset and will potentially position the Ravens to maximize this next part of Jackson’s career.
NFL Season Previews
Reasons for Concern
Are we sure that this is a good roster? Offensively, the Ravens are below average at wide receiver and on the offensive line. Their pass rush ranked 28th in pressure rate and 31st in sack rate last season. Adding Trey Hendrickson should help, but he’s 31 and played in only seven games last season. Getting defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike back is nice, but his career was in jeopardy as recently as a couple of months ago. Other than quarterback, running back, secondary, and maybe linebacker, is there an above-average position group on the roster? I’m not sure.
Having Jackson at quarterback has provided high highs, but the Ravens offense has dipped into mediocrity more often than some might realize. Here’s where they’ve ranked every season since 2019.
Three top-10 finishes in the past seven seasons (and obviously, Jackson’s injuries were a factor some of those years; you can probably tell which ones). But my argument would be that Jackson sets a high floor (the offense has never really been bad with him), while the other variables (coaching, supporting cast) determine the ceiling. And the Ravens haven’t consistently nailed those other variables.
My other concern focuses on whether Jackson is entering a different phase of his career in terms of how he has to play. This might be premature, and last year could have been a simple case of him playing through injuries, but there were some potentially troubling signs in terms of his athleticism. Jackson averaged a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game. He was sacked on 10.7 percent of his dropbacks, which ranked 32nd out of 33 quarterbacks. And he ranked 33rd out of 38 quarterbacks in pressure-to-sack rate. Jackson can obviously operate as a pocket passer. He’s proved that throughout his career. But there’s no denying that his legs and elusiveness are part of what has made him so difficult to defend. Again, maybe those aspects of his game will return this year if he’s healthy. But that’s not a guarantee.
How I See It
The Super Bowl case here is straightforward: Jackson is healthy and thrives in the new offensive system. The offensive line overachieves. A young pass catcher like rookie Ja’Kobi Lane emerges as a quality second option. And Minter coaches the defense to a top-five level.
I see a very good team, but the issues above give me pause. I see a team that can win in different ways. But I’m not sure I see an elite unit. I could get there with the offense if I trusted the offensive line or the pass catchers more. I could get there with the defense if I were confident in the pass rush.
I like the Ravens as a wild-card team with a Super Bowl ceiling. But ultimately, I think that they probably need one more offseason to build up the roster.
Projected record: 11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers
What’s at Stake for the Steelers
Not much? In some ways, this was a wild offseason for them as the Mike Tomlin era came to an end. But other than that, aren’t they pretty much in the same spot? Nobody is going to pick this team to make the Super Bowl. Nobody is going to pick them to have a top-five draft pick. They are once again locked into the NFL’s middle class, with no clear plan for getting out.
Reasons for Optimism
I think they’ll have a top-five defense. Patrick Graham might be the most underrated defensive coordinator in the NFL. Working with very little talent last year in Las Vegas, he somehow coached the Raiders to competency (14th in defensive DVOA). Now he has much better players to work with. I especially like the Steelers front. They have a nice blend of vets (Cam Heyward, TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig) and up-and-comers (Keeanu Benton, Derrick Harmon). This is a deep and talented group that is capable of taking over games. They won't be fun to play against.
The secondary has a few question marks, but Pittsburgh added cornerback Jamel Dean and safety Jaquan Brisker in free agency. Joey Porter Jr. is a talented man-coverage corner. I think that this group will be good enough as long as the pass rush shows up, and I trust Graham to figure out how to get the most out of them.
Offensively, I think the line can be pretty good, and the Steelers ranked eighth in rushing DVOA last season. Aaron Rodgers’s best skill at this point is avoiding negative plays. He won't put the ball in harm’s way, and he’ll get rid of the ball quickly and avoid taking a high number of sacks. DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. offer a solid pass catching duo, although the group isn’t particularly deep behind them. The Steelers’ path to a playoff spot looks like this: play great defense and have a very good run game, with strong special teams, and a quarterback who avoids negative plays. I feel like we’ve seen this formula before in Pittsburgh!
Reasons for Concern
Can the Tomlin voodoo carry over to the Mike McCarthy era? Tomlin went out in the most Tomlin-y way imaginable. The Steelers were second in turnover EPA last season. They were sixth in adjusted games lost (AGL), which measures injury luck. And they were 7-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer. For years under Tomlin, we pointed out how those things don’t generally translate from one year to the next. And then the next year, what do you know? The same things would happen! But again, McCarthy might not have the same magic.
And then there’s Rodgers, who turns 43 in December. The Steelers’ passing game was broken last year, and there’s little reason to think that McCarthy will be able to fix it. Dropback success rate measures how often each pass play produces a positive result for the offense. Rodgers ranked 31st out of 33 quarterbacks in that metric—ahead of the league’s only other 40-something, Joe Flacco, and rookie Cam Ward. Rodgers’s playing style at this stage of his career is predicated on getting rid of the ball quickly—on average, in a league-low 2.59 seconds last season. His average pass traveled 6 yards—the shortest distance of any qualified quarterback. That’s just a hard way to play, and it seems unlikely to change now that he’s a year older.
How I See It
McCarthy’s Pro Football Reference page is more impressive than his reputation. He has a .608 career winning percentage and has coached his team to the playoffs in 12 of 18 seasons. But the thing is, he’s pretty much always had above-average quarterback play—from Brett Favre to MVP-level Rodgers to Dak Prescott—during those successful seasons. I just don’t think that’ll be the case this season. I see a high-floor team with a pretty good roster, a limited passing game, and a fun defense that'll hover around .500 for most of the season.
Projected record: 8-9
Cleveland Browns
What’s at Stake for the Browns
Their relationship with the fan base? Draft positioning for next year? Take your pick. This is Browns football, baby!
Reasons for Optimism
Here’s the thing: The Browns have some fun, young players. In a different scenario where they could get out from underneath the financial burden of the worst trade and the worst contract in NFL history, maybe they’d be getting some buzz and a fun, frisky, up-and-coming team. Offensively, running back Quinshon Judkins and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. are coming off promising rookie seasons. We’ll see what rookie wide receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion do, but signs from camp seemed to be positive. And the Browns addressed left tackle in the first round with Spencer Fano.
Defensively, Carson Schwesinger looks like he’s on track to be one of the better linebackers in the NFL. Defensive tackle Mason Graham at least has a chance for a second-year leap. And the team got Jared Verse, one of the league’s best young defensive ends, in the Myles Garrett trade.
Cleveland has a new head coach in Todd Monken, who has an impressive track record as an offensive schemer. And they have the league’s fourth-easiest schedule. I think I might deserve some kind of award for coming up with this many things to include in the case for Browns optimism.
Reasons for Concern
We can also label this: The Quarterback Section. If we look at every quarterback season over the past two years, Deshaun Watson’s 2024 campaign ranks last in EPA per pass play, and Shedeur Sanders’s 2025 performance ranks second to last. This was the Browns’ quarterback competition! Because the Browns botched the Watson contract so badly, they’re not positioned to release him without facing historic and devastating salary cap ramifications. So instead, they are starting the quarterback who faced dozens of claims of sexual misconduct and never apologized for any of it. Instead, Watson has played the victim and antagonized the fans. He’s started 19 games over the past five years, and when he’s played, he’s looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, this defense was a real strength last year. But when you trade Garrett and lose one of the best defensive coordinators of the past 25 years in Jim Schwartz, chances are you are destined to take a pretty big step back.
How I See It
There’s a non-zero chance that Monken can emulate some version of late-career Bruce Arians. Monken is a good offensive coach, this team has some young talent, and the schedule is not daunting. Success this season would be Monken developing the young players on the roster, showing that he’s up for the job, and then the team finds a quarterback of the future in next year’s draft.
Awful quarterback play is nearly impossible to overcome in the NFL, and the bottom line is that’s what’s probably going to define the Browns’ 2026 season.
Projected record: 5-12
