The Ringer is going deep on each division as the start of the 2026 NFL season approaches. So far, we’ve covered the NFC East, the AFC East, the NFC North, the AFC North, the NFC West, and the AFC West. Now we’re on to the NFC South. Can the Panthers repeat as division champs? Will we see a Baker Mayfield revenge tour (against his own team)? Is being a Shough-head about to become a thing? Will the Falcons let a fan start at quarterback? Let’s dive in!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What’s at Stake for the Bucs
The head coach’s job and the quarterback’s future. That’s kind of a lot! The Bucs have finished with eight to 10 wins under Todd Bowles in each of the past four seasons. But if they miss the playoffs for the second straight year, the Bucs could make a change at the top. Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, is entering the final year of his deal. If he plays great, he could get a monster contract—from either Tampa or someone else. If he doesn’t play well, Tampa could look smart for being patient. The Bucs are usually a team that's free from drama, but we could get plenty of it this season.
Reasons for Optimism
This looks like a top-10 roster in terms of overall talent. I like teams that are strong on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Bucs have a top-five offensive line, and I’m bullish on their defensive line (more on that in a second). The skill group around Mayfield, led by wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, has potential. Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell offer a nice one-two punch at running back. And Tampa has some young pieces in the secondary who could emerge.
Last year, the Bucs offense finished 20th in expected points added per drive. Why would this year be any better? Injury luck is the big thing. Last year, Tampa’s offense ranked 29th in adjusted games lost, which measures how badly each team and each unit was hurt by injuries. The Bucs’ offensive line was decimated at times last season, and Mayfield was playing through injuries. There’s reason to believe this group can be pretty good if it gets healthier. From 2023 to 2024, the Bucs ranked seventh in EPA per drive, and Mayfield ranks 10th in EPA per pass play over the past three seasons. It’d be no surprise to see Tampa’s offense bounce back if it gets even league-average injury luck.
I’m bullish on the defense, too. Up front, the Bucs added Rueben Bain Jr. to a group that includes Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey (who missed 14 games last season), and Yaya Diaby (whose 65 pressures last season ranked 10th leaguewide). The secondary needs to prove itself, but there is a strong foundation here.
We know the division is not exactly loaded, and the Bucs have the NFL’s sixth-easiest schedule overall if we go off Super Bowl odds.
Reasons for Concern
I think that Mayfield will play pretty well this season. But I’m not sure that he will. A couple of things worry me. One, he ranked tied for 31st out of 38 quarterbacks last year in turnover-worthy play percentage, as tracked by Pro Football Focus. His decision-making was off, and so was his accuracy. Mayfield ranked 30th out of 38 quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage (a metric that doesn’t ding quarterbacks for drops and doesn’t include things like spikes and throwaways). It could have just been that he was dealing with injuries. But it also could be a sign of a downward trend.
For the first time in Mayfield’s Bucs career, he won’t be throwing to Mike Evans. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin Jr. is 30 years old and has played in a total of 16 games over the past two seasons because of injuries. The pass catching group has potential, but it’s far from a sure thing.
And then there’s the Bowles factor. He has been a very good defensive coach for a long time, but it’s fair to wonder whether his aggressive blitzing style can still work consistently against good offenses. The results have been meh in recent seasons. By EPA per drive, Bowles’s defenses ranked 16th in 2025, 18th in 2024, and 18th in 2023. In other words, perfectly mediocre. He’s got better talent to work with this year, but Bowles needs to show he can maximize it.
How I See It
I’m optimistic that the 2026 Bucs can be a good football team. This looks like easily the most talented team in the NFC South, and I feel pretty strongly that Mayfield (especially with the added motivation) will be the best quarterback in the division. A top-12-ish offense and a top-12-ish defense feel realistic and could be enough to get them to double-digit wins against this schedule.
Projected record: 10-7
Carolina Panthers
What’s at Stake for the Panthers
Gaining quarterback clarity one way or another. If the Panthers really believed in Bryce Young, he’d already have a long-term deal. Instead, he’s still playing on his rookie deal, though the team did pick up his fifth-year option for 2027. If Young struggles this season, the Panthers could get aggressive in finding their next guy in the offseason. If he has a career year, Carolina can think about working toward a long-term deal.
Reasons for Optimism
These are the defending division champs, baby! PUT SOME RESPECT ON THEIR NAME! OK, sorry for the outburst. Just trying to psych myself up to write about the NFC South. But yes, they did win the division last year at 8-9. How you think the 2026 Panthers will do likely depends on how much weight you put on their playoff performance. Carolina went toe-to-toe with an excellent Rams team before ultimately suffering a 34-31 loss. That type of effort and experience has to count for something.
Young showed growth in two specific areas last season. One, his accuracy was pretty good. Young ranked eighth in adjusted completion percentage. And two, he took sacks at the lowest rate of his career. His sack rate has decreased every year, and the numbers suggest that it goes beyond the Panthers’ improved offensive line play. Young ranked 11th last season in pressure-to-sack rate.
Up front, the Panthers signed left tackle Rasheed Walker in free agency and drafted right tackle Monroe Freeling in the first round. At wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan is coming off a promising rookie season in which he had 1,014 yards. And Dave Canales has looked like a competent head coach who could be good when he has more talent to work with.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers spent big in free agency, adding edge defender Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd. The cornerback duo of Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson is one of the better ones in the NFL. Bottom line: There’s definitely more talent here than there’s been in previous years.
Reasons for Concern
We can admit that there were fraudulent aspects to their division crown last season. Not only did the Panthers get into the playoffs with an 8-9 record, but they were 7-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer. That means they had just one win by more than seven points. Other teams with just one such win last year: the Titans, Cardinals, and Raiders. Not the company you want to be mentioned with! Every other team had at least two.
I find Young to be easy to root for, and I think he has certainly improved. But three years in, we have pretty much no evidence that he can be an above-average starter. In a career year last season, Young ranked 24th in EPA per pass play. It’s possible that he—and this offense—will make a leap in 2026. But that’s definitely not the most likely outcome.
Defensively, the Panthers ranked 31st in pressure rate last season. Yes, they added Phillips, but they also lost Nic Scourton (who led the team in pressures last season) to a season-ending knee injury during training camp.
How I See It
I don’t think this is a good team. I don’t think this is a terrible team. The Panthers are just another squad that appears to be stuck in the NFL’s middle class. It’s possible that they’ll put out a better team than they did last year, even if the record doesn’t reflect it. If Young makes a leap or if the defense looks significantly improved, they could certainly win the division again. But a slight step back seems just as likely.
Projected record: 7-10
New Orleans Saints
What’s at Stake for the Saints
Answering the most important question for any NFL team: Do they have their quarterback? The Saints went 5-4 with Tyler Shough as their starter last year. Can he build off his rookie season and show that he’s the guy? Or will he get exposed with a larger sample, putting the Saints on the list of QB-needy teams in the 2027 draft?
Reasons for Optimism
Shough’s old-school stats were pretty good last season. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes, averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, and threw 10 touchdowns with six interceptions. He showed toughness and athleticism and made some impressive throws. Perhaps most noteworthy, Shough didn’t put the ball in harm’s way. He tied for the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate among starting quarterbacks. Plus, the Saints have a good no. 1 receiver in Chris Olave. They added running back Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency and have what looks like a top-10 offensive line on paper.
The Saints defense quietly outperformed expectations last year. Brandon Staley’s unit ranked 10th in EPA per drive and sixth in success rate. It allowed explosive plays at the third-lowest rate. (This is the part of the column where Chargers fans ask: Where the *&^% was that when he was OUR head coach?)
The Saints lost linebacker Demario Davis in free agency but brought back Kaden Elliss. They also lost corner Alontae Taylor. But other than that, this group has a lot of continuity.
A recurring theme in the NFC South: This isn’t a killer schedule. In fact, the Saints’ schedule, specifically, projects to be the easiest in the NFL.
Reasons for Concern
If we go under the hood on Shough’s rookie season, the advanced numbers paint a less flattering picture. He ranked 26th in EPA per pass play. To put that into context, Spencer Rattler, the quarterback he replaced, ranked 29th. Rattler actually had a higher dropback success rate than Shough, but he was a turnover machine.
While Shough didn’t turn it over, he still managed to produce a high percentage of negative plays. They just came in the form of sacks. Shough’s pressure-to-sack rate ranked 37th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks—ahead of only Geno Smith. This will be a key area to focus on in year two: Can he get rid of the ball and avoid those negative plays when he’s pressured?
Elsewhere on the roster, the Saints used a first-round pick on wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, but he could miss two months with a hamstring injury. Overall, head coach Kellen Moore has been underwhelming as an offensive play caller in New Orleans. Shough used play-action at the fourth-lowest rate in the league in 2025. The Saints ranked 27th in offensive DVOA, and their run game ranked 30th. There wasn’t much evidence of Moore doing more with less in year one.
How I See It
The range of outcomes seems somewhat narrow for the Saints. They look like a group that is destined to win seven to nine games. Given that the defense could be good and Shough could improve, it’d be no surprise to see them take the division, especially given the easy schedule. But I need to see more from the Shough-Moore partnership before buying in.
Projected record: 7-10
Atlanta Falcons
What’s at Stake for the Falcons
Not much? I’m just being honest. The Falcons are digging themselves out of a hole created by the previous regime. They already made their big moves: hiring Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Ian Cunningham as general manager, and Matt Ryan as president of football (yes, that’s a real title—I just looked it up). Because of their competition, the Falcons have a chance to steal the division, but nobody’s really expecting anything from them this season.
Reasons for Optimism
The cupboard isn’t completely bare. The Falcons should have a competent offensive line and a quality group of playmakers that includes running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts. They currently have four quarterbacks on their roster: Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa, Cooper Rush, and Jack Strand. I can make the glass-half-full case for exactly one of them: Penix.
It feels like Penix’s performance last season was viewed by most as a disaster. But statistically, that wasn’t the case. He ranked 22nd in EPA per pass play and 13th in success rate. Penix’s dropbacks produced a positive play at roughly the same rate as Trevor Lawrence’s. I think that would surprise a lot of people! I’m not telling you that he’ll be amazing. But if Penix is healthy, there’s at least a little there to suggest he’ll be worth a longer look.
This was not a bad defense last year. That unit ranked 14th in EPA per drive, and it brought back defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. OK, I think that’s all I got.
Reasons for Concern
I have a question about Kevin Stefanski: Are we sure he’s good? I understand that the Browns are the Browns and there is a lot of institutional dysfunction going on there, but Stefanski went 8-26 the last two seasons, and Stefanski’s offense ranked dead last in EPA per drive both years. I know what you’re saying. “Sheil, c’mon, Cleveland’s quarterback situation was terrible.” I understand. But lean in here, and let me tell you a little something about the current Falcons quarterback situation: It’s also terrible! Everyone’s made the joke already, but Tagovailoa literally lost a quarterback competition to nobody. The Falcons brain trust watched him in camp and in the preseason and decided he wasn’t the guy.
I know I said some nice things about Penix earlier, but he’s coming off yet another ACL injury (his third!) and has been healthy for a total of 14 games in two NFL seasons. This is not a man I would be rushing back onto the field if I were the Falcons.
While Atlanta’s defense overachieved last year, it could have one of the NFL’s worst front sevens in 2026. Last year, the Falcons had seven players with at least 25 pressures. Among those seven, the only ones returning are James Pearce Jr., Brandon Dorlus, and Jalon Walker. And those three aren’t even all the way back. Pearce is suspended for eight games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy following a February arrest on felony domestic violence charges. And Walker is out for the season with a torn ACL. That leaves … Dorlus? Tough times!
How I See It
There was a scenario where I could have been tempted to pick the Falcons to win the division. If Penix were fully healthy and looking good in camp. If the defense looked young and frisky. If players raved about a new era with Stefanski. None of those things have happened. This has not been a good summer for Atlanta, and I’m not sure you’ll find anyone who’s optimistic about this group.
Projected record: 5-12
