The Ringer is going deep on each division as the start of the 2026 NFL season approaches. So far, we’ve covered the NFC East, the AFC East, the NFC North, the AFC North, and the NFC West. Now we’re on to the AFC West. Is this finally going to be Justin Herbert’s year? Can the Broncos go back-to-back as division champs? Are the Chiefs primed for a bounce-back? And will the Raiders show signs of life? Let’s dive in!
Kansas City Chiefs
What’s at Stake for the Chiefs
Is this a transition year for this franchise? That sounds wild to say about a team that has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Yet Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL he suffered in mid-December, and the Chiefs traded cornerback Trent McDuffie in the offseason. Both of those things feel significant. It’s possible that the Chiefs will return to contender status. It’s also possible that this is the year before the year that they return to contender status.
Reasons for Optimism
I can make a pretty strong case that the Chiefs last year were better than you remember when Mahomes was their starter. Was it a fun experience to watch? No. Everything looked difficult. But Kansas City had a 6-8 record—and 1-7 in games decided by seven points or fewer—before Mahomes got hurt. In 2024, they were on the right side of almost every one-score game. Last season was the opposite.
If we isolate just the offensive performance when Mahomes was in the lineup, the Chiefs performed roughly like the NFL’s fourth-best unit in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play. And they did it without a great group of pass catchers. Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice (who played in only eight games last season), and Xavier Worthy are back. The only contributing receiver that the Chiefs lost in the offseason was Marquise Brown. Their offensive line has potential; Brandon Thorn has them seventh in his preseason projections. It just feels like the floor of a Mahomes-led passing game and a top-10 offensive line is going to be pretty high.
One big issue that the Chiefs had last year was that their run game lacked any kind of explosive element. The Chiefs had an explosive run rate of 5.5 percent, which ranked 29th. They signed Kenneth Walker III, a boom-or-bust back who was tied for third last year with 10 runs of 20-plus yards for the Seahawks. The hope is that Walker and a potentially strong offensive line can give the Chiefs more explosive plays on the ground.
Defensively, the Chiefs had a lot of roster turnover—especially at corner, with McDuffie and Jaylen Watson now both on the Rams—but we have a decent sample size showing that coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be able to get Kansas City to competency no matter who is on the field. Here’s where the Chiefs defenses have ranked over the past seven seasons.
Given how much change the Chiefs have had on defense, it feels like the floor might be more important than the ceiling. They are leaning on a bunch of young players like rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane and defensive tackle Peter Woods. This doesn’t look like a great group on paper, but history suggests that they should at least be mediocre.
Reasons for Concern
I just gave you the stats on how the offense performed with Mahomes last season. And there’s another important stat: Mahomes often carried the Chiefs with his legs, averaging a career-high 30.1 rushing yards per game. Given that he’s coming off a knee injury, the scrambling option that got the Chiefs out of a bunch of jams last season might not be as available to him.
And there’s no sugarcoating how bad this supporting cast is. Yes, the Chiefs made it work at times last year, but there’s no guarantee that’ll happen again. Kansas City has missed on some draft picks, and the franchise’s team-building decisions have left them with a well below-average group of pass catchers. Mahomes gives the Chiefs a high floor, but the supporting cast helps determine the ceiling. Check out where Mahomes has ranked in EPA per pass play over his career. There’s a pretty direct correlation most years to who he was throwing the ball to.
2022 was an exception. The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill before that season, but Kelce was in his prime, and Mahomes played at an MVP level. The last three years have been pretty consistent—good, but not great.
And then there’s the Andy Reid discussion. Does he still have his fastball? I’m not so sure. He could have scoured the entire country to find a great offensive coach with innovative ideas. Instead, he came back to Eric Bieniemy. Maybe Bieniemy will be good in his return to K.C., but I always get concerned when coaches default to familiarity. It can be a sign that they’re close to running out of new ideas.
How I See It
Let me take you inside my personal process. I have changed my mind on who’s going to win this division roughly 700 times over the past three months. Last week, I got to a dark place and asked myself: If your life depended on it, who would you pick? Instantly, that rules out the Chargers. No reasonable person could pick them if their life was on the line.
So it then came down to the Broncos and Chiefs: one team with a great roster and another team with a great quarterback. I initially went with Denver, thinking that the last two Super Bowl champions (Seahawks and Eagles) had great rosters. Then I yelled at myself for drawing conclusions based on a sample of two and remembered that NFL history is littered with stories of quarterbacks doing more with less.
So finally, I landed on the Chiefs. Do I feel good about it? Of course not. But here we are.
Projected record: 11-6
Denver Broncos
What’s at Stake for the Broncos
Any time your success is built (at least partially!) on having a great roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, the urgency ratchets up every year you don’t get to the Super Bowl. And that’s exactly where the Broncos are right now. They very easily could have gotten there last season if Bo Nix hadn't gotten injured in the divisional round. The Broncos were aggressive in the offseason, and they have a lot of talent. But the clock is ticking before they have to pay Nix and adjust their team-building strategy accordingly.
Reasons for Optimism
This looks like the best roster in the NFL. Offensively, the line is excellent, and the Broncos traded for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle in the offseason. Waddle had 64 catches for 910 yards and produced in the 92nd percentile in yards per route run last season while playing in a bad Dolphins offense. His skill set complements Denver’s star receiver Courtland Sutton well, and Sean Payton has earned the benefit of the doubt that he’ll know how to use Waddle. Defensively, the Broncos are loaded at cornerback, led by Pat Surtain II. And up front, they have a strong group led by Nik Bonitto. From a personnel standpoint, there just aren’t a lot of weaknesses.
The Broncos ranked 15th in offensive DVOA last year, and they have unmatched continuity. All 15 of the players who logged 300-plus snaps for them last season are back. Nix ranked 13th in EPA per pass play in 2025. His superpower appears to be sack avoidance. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Nix ranked second in pressure-to-sack rate, behind only Brock Purdy. His ability to avoid negative plays kept the Broncos on schedule and positioned Payton to cook last season.
Defensively, coordinator Vance Joseph has bucked NFL trends and played an aggressive style—relying on man coverage and blitzing at a high rate. It worked well, as Denver ranked eighth in EPA per drive and first in success rate.
The bottom line is that the Broncos can win in a lot of different ways. Nix can make plays with his legs. Their wide receivers are going to be tough to match up with. They can rush the passer. They can cover on defense. They’re not an easy team to prepare for.
NFL Season Previews
Reasons for Concern
The Broncos probably weren’t quite as good as their record (14-3) indicated last year. Their nine wins in games decided by seven points or fewer were the most of any team, and their .818 winning percentage in such games was second to only the 49ers. If you want to say that Nix has a clutch gene, go for it. To me, it feels more like a bunch of things bounced their way last year. Denver shouldn’t have to apologize for that! But those bounces might not go its way again this season.
Offensively, Nix ranked 23rd in dropback success rate. Success rate is binary. It looks at whether each play was positive or not. But big plays (explosive completions, turnovers) don’t carry extra weight. The number here suggests that Denver didn’t have the healthiest passing game. Nix and Co. were not creating positive plays at a high rate. Rather, the offense’s strength was avoiding those truly damaging negative plays like sacks and turnovers. It will be harder to play that way if the Broncos get worse turnover luck or if their defense takes a step back.
Defensively, my main concern is the potential for Denver’s pass rush to regress a bit. Jonathon Cooper was third on the team in pressures and second in sacks last year. He recently pleaded not guilty to multiple domestic violence charges and is on the commissioner’s exempt list, meaning he is essentially on an indefinite paid leave while the NFL investigates and the legal process plays out. Meanwhile, John Franklin-Myers was fourth on the team in pressures and third in sacks, but he left in free agency. Assuming that this pass rush is going to be as good as last year feels like a mistake.
And finally, maybe the most bizarre, underrated story of the offseason: Payton is giving up play calling duties to 31-year-old Davis Webb. The official story here is that Payton loves Webb and didn’t want to lose him, so he’s essentially made him his protégé. My favorite conspiracy theory is that Payton thinks the Broncos are going to struggle early in the season with Nix coming off the ankle injury. If that happens, he can swoop in, take over the offense, and play the role of savior. But no one believes that’s actually what’s happening here, right? RIGHT??
[Afraid to say anything.]
Regardless, it’s strange for Payton, one of the best offensive coaches of the last 25 years, to give up control. That is typically not how things work in the NFL, and at the very least, it adds an element of uncertainty to the Broncos’ season.
Last thing here: The schedule strength looks drastically different from a year ago. In 2025, the Broncos faced the fourth-easiest schedule. This year, their schedule projects to be eighth hardest.
How I See It
Sean Payton loves him some Sean Payton. But Sean Payton is undeniably an excellent coach. He has produced a winning record in seven of his past eight seasons dating back to his time in New Orleans, and he won 10-plus games in six of those seasons. This year, he has a talented team, and the floor feels high.
I considered picking the Broncos as my AFC Super Bowl team, but I couldn’t quite get there. I see the potential for a high ceiling with this offense, but I’m not convinced they’ll get there. And as mentioned, I have concerns about the pass rush taking a step back. Combine those things with the play calling switch and the harder schedule, and I see a solid, well-rounded playoff team whose record isn’t going to be as good as it was last year.
Projected record: 10-7
Los Angeles Chargers
What’s at Stake for the Chargers
It feels like this is Justin Herbert’s best chance to get over the hump. The ball knowers’ favorite quarterback is now paired with the ball knowers’ favorite offensive mind in Mike McDaniel. If Herbert can’t win a playoff game this year, who gets the blame? Herbert? McDaniel? Jim Harbaugh? GM Joe Hortiz? The ceiling is higher for this team than it’s been in a while. But if the Chargers fall short, I’m not sure they’re going to be patient and just run the whole thing back in 2027.
Reasons for Optimism
Harbaugh’s teams win a lot of games. He doesn’t always get mentioned in the same class as the league’s top coaches, but his track record is nearly unmatched. Harbaugh’s .679 winning percentage is 10th best in NFL history. The only current coach with a higher winning percentage is Nick Sirianni. Harbaugh has done it with different quarterbacks and different organizations and different rosters. He’s won 11-plus games five times in six seasons and has never had a losing record.
This offseason, Harbaugh went outside his usual circle and hired McDaniel, who had been fired as head coach in Miami. McDaniel has never had a quarterback as talented as Herbert. Herbert has never had an offensive coordinator as talented as McDaniel. When healthy, the Chargers have one of the best tackle duos in the league in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. But those two players combined to play in just six games last season. Just getting them back on the field should make a world of difference. Bottom line: This offense is set up well to be much improved and should emerge as a top-10 unit.
Defensively, the Chargers finished seventh in EPA per drive last season. They are bringing back a lot of the same personnel and are hoping that first-round pick Akheem Mesidor can give their pass rush a boost.
Reasons for Concern
I am a Herbert believer. I think that at some point in his career, he will either win an MVP or a Super Bowl. But I do get a bit annoyed when the hipsters act like anyone who is critical of Herbert is a dummy. There’s a legit statistical case to suggest that he’s been disappointing, relative to his talent. Here’s where Herbert has ranked in EPA per pass play over his career.
And here’s where the Chargers offense has ranked over the past six seasons.
So what are the conclusions? Herbert has finished in the top 10 in EPA per pass play twice in his six-year career, and he’s finished outside the top 10 for four consecutive seasons. The Chargers offense has been in the top 10 once in six seasons with Herbert and has been outside the top 10 for four consecutive seasons. Again: I like Herbert! I believe in Herbert! But I definitely felt like he would have accomplished more by this point in his career.
Now’s the part of the article where many of you are screaming at me: “IT’S NOT HIS FAULT!” And there’s absolutely some truth to that. But are we sure, then, that this year is going to be different? Yes, the Chargers get their tackles back, but their interior offensive line is a potential disaster. There’s a scenario where we’re just shifting our blame from the offensive coordinator to the general manager at the end of this season.
Defensively, former coordinator Jesse Minter did more with less with this group last season. And new coordinator Chris O’Leary will have to prove he can do the same. This is not the most talented depth chart. Up front, Tuli Tuipulotu was excellent last year, but Khalil Mack is 35 years old, and the Chargers are counting on Mesidor to make an instant impact. If that doesn’t happen, this pass rush could be mediocre.
Last year, the Chargers faced the eighth-easiest schedule and were 6-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This year, they face the fourth-hardest projected schedule.
How I See It
Earlier this summer, I took a long, hard look at the Chargers as a potential Super Bowl team. There’s a chance that this Herbert-McDaniel offense will take the league by storm and drop 30-plus on unsuspecting opponents week after week. That honestly would not surprise me at all.
But ultimately, I look at this roster and I don’t see enough. I have questions across the board—interior offensive line, pass rush, secondary. Maybe young players will emerge as stars, or the Chargers will coach their way out of talent deficiencies. But the operation feels a bit fragile. I see a playoff team, but not a juggernaut.
Projected record: 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders
What’s at Stake for the Raiders
Hope. By the end of this season, Raiders fans should feel like the franchise is headed in the right direction. That means Klint Kubiak looks the part as a head coach and, more importantly, Fernando Mendoza shows promise as the quarterback of the future. If those two things happen, almost nothing else matters for the Raiders.
Reasons for Optimism
Kubiak did an incredible job with Sam Darnold last season in Seattle. Darnold had played well the previous season with the Vikings, but this was another level. Kubiak’s scheming and play calling were excellent. Seattle produced explosive pass plays at the third-highest rate in the NFL. That doesn’t mean everything is going to translate to Las Vegas. But there is certainly some proof of concept here.
No one seems to know exactly what the Raiders’ timeline is to start Mendoza, but by all accounts, for now they are committed to being patient and won’t rush him onto the field until he’s ready. I don’t know whether the Raiders’ plan is going to work, but unlike last year under Pete Carroll, at least there appears to be a plan.
From a talent perspective, the cupboard is mostly bare. Brock Bowers could emerge as the NFL’s best tight end. And the Raiders signed center Tyler Linderbaum to a big contract in free agency. Defensively, Maxx Crosby is back, and they signed a couple of linebackers—Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker—in the offseason. Again, it’s not a lot. But it’s a little something.
Reasons for Concern
Kirk Cousins is going to start the season at quarterback, and there’s little reason to believe he can give the Raiders quality play at this stage of his career. Cousins is 38 years old, and last year with the Falcons he ranked 25th in EPA per pass play. In other words, if he performs like he performed last year, that’s not any better than an average season for a rookie starter in the NFL.
And while Kubiak can scheme it up, this supporting cast just leaves a lot to be desired. If you’re out with friends this weekend, see whether anyone can name the Raiders' starting wide receivers: Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, and Jack Bech. That has to be the most anonymous pass catching trio in the NFL (OK, fine, maybe Miami wants a word). While the offensive line could be better, it still projects as a bottom-10 unit.
The defensive depth chart is rough, too. This is what happens when an organization strings together a bunch of disastrous years, with frequent turnover in the coaching staff and front office. I don’t think we can blame Tom Brady for this yet, but that day is likely coming. It’s not going to help that the Raiders play in a very good division and face the NFL’s sixth-hardest schedule.
How I See It
Again: Kubiak and Mendoza. Nothing else matters. This is clearly a transition year, the roster is bad, and the schedule is hard. That’s likely going to translate to one of the lowest win totals in the NFL.
Projected record: 4-13
