Over the next week and a half, The Ringer will be going deep on each division as the start of the 2026 NFL season approaches. First up: the NFC East! We have Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels trying to learn new offensive schemes, the Cowboys crossing their fingers about a defensive makeover, and John Harbaugh trying to prove that he still has his fastball. What will go right? What will go wrong? Let’s dive in!
Philadelphia Eagles
What’s at Stake for the Eagles
Two things have defined the current era of Eagles football: winning and drama. Over the past four seasons, the Eagles have produced a league-best 50-18 record in the regular season. They’ve been to the playoffs five straight years, have gone to the Super Bowl twice in that span, and have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy once. Yet it somehow always seems like everyone is one bad season away from getting traded or fired. The 2026 offseason brought significant changes to the roster and coaching staff, and if those moves don’t work out, nobody (Nick Sirianni? Jalen Hurts?) should feel great about their future in Philadelphia.
Reasons for Optimism
General manager Howie Roseman has been on an all-time heater in the draft and once again has assembled one of the five most talented rosters in the league. The defense, specifically, is loaded with elite young players like defensive tackle Jalen Carter, cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, and defensive back Cooper DeJean. Under veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, the Eagles finished seventh in DVOA last season and were first in 2024. Unless something goes horribly wrong, this once again should be a top-quartile unit; its ceiling is becoming the best defense in the NFL.
You could easily make the case that last season, when the Eagles offense finished a disappointing 19th in EPA per drive, was an outlier. Here’s where the Eagles offense finished the previous four seasons with Hurts:
The common factor in all those seasons: The run game was among the NFL’s best. The Eagles consistently had great offensive line play during those years. Legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland knew what buttons to push to get the most out of his unit, and Hurts’s legs made the Eagles’ scheme difficult to defend. But that all changed last year. The offensive line dealt with injuries and inconsistencies. Hurts wasn’t much of a factor as a runner. And the coaching staff couldn’t seem to get on the same page to find solutions. The result was a run game that finished 24th in DVOA.
This offseason, the organization took drastic measures to try to find solutions. It fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and replaced him with Sean Mannion, who comes over from Green Bay. Stoutland left the organization. Offensive linemen Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens each went to Colombia to undergo stem cell treatments in hopes of getting healthy. The hope is that Mannion will modernize the Eagles’ scheme by pairing a wide-zone run game with more under-center play-action and that improved health will help the offensive line get back to being an elite unit. O-line guru Brandon Thorn has that group ranked as the NFL’s second best, despite last year’s struggles. If Hurts takes to the schematic changes, the Eagles could once again produce a top-10 offense and be a Super Bowl contender.
Reasons for Concern
Regression alert! The Eagles went 11-6 last year, but that was with some good luck. They were 8-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer. They were sixth in EPA gained on turnovers. And they were second in adjusted games lost, which measures how badly each team is hurt by injuries. Turnovers, injuries, and performances in close games are not generally things that transfer from one year to the next.
The offense is filled with uncertainty. Receiver A.J. Brown wanted out, and the Eagles traded him to the Patriots. That leaves them with DeVonta Smith as their no. 1 wide receiver, but behind him are questions. The Eagles are counting on rookie Makai Lemon and veteran Dontayvion Wicks, who had just 332 receiving yards for the Packers last season.
And then there’s Hurts. Here’s how he’s ranked as a passer during his five NFL seasons:
Hurts’s overall value for the Eagles has been higher than those numbers indicate because in his first four seasons he gave the offense a big boost in the run game. But his rushing numbers dipped last year, and now he’ll be playing in a brand-new system that will ask him to do things he’s never done before at high volume, like working from under center, targeting the middle of the field, trusting his reads, and playing on time. If he takes to the changes, Hurts could unlock a new version of himself that is more consistent, even if the talent around him isn’t as great. But if he struggles, the Eagles will have to go back to the drawing board next offseason to figure out how to extend their Super Bowl window.
How I See It
I think that the defense will carry this team to a bunch of wins early on, and the hope has to be that the offense can eventually find its footing and catch up. In some ways, this offseason has worked out great for Hurts’s standing among Eagles fans. They’ve rallied behind him after the Brown drama and will point out to any unsuspecting hater that Hurts balled out in both of his Super Bowl appearances and that the team has won 76 percent of the games he’s started over the past four seasons. He’s their guy, and they very badly want this new experiment to work.
The biggest factor that will determine whether the Eagles are just a good team or a legit Super Bowl contender is the offensive line. There’s a scenario in which this group bounces back after a down season.[1] There’s also a scenario in which this group struggles in a new scheme without Stoutland pulling the strings and the 2026 Eagles end up looking a lot like the 2025 Eagles.
Bottom line: The defense offers a high floor, and the offense will determine the Eagles’ ceiling. I still see enough talent here for another division crown.
Projected record: 11-6
Dallas Cowboys
What’s at Stake for the Cowboys
We all know about the streak, right? It’s been 30 (!) years since the Cowboys have gotten out of the divisional round of the playoffs. Some of those years, they had pretty good teams but couldn’t get over the hump in the postseason. Other years, the only people labeling them contenders were TV talking heads who were trying desperately to get some pop during another cringe-worthy segment. This season? Well, the Cowboys actually have a shot to make some noise. Quarterback Dak Prescott has a good supporting cast around him. And if the defense can prove to be just competent enough, the Cowboys could be contenders.
Reasons for Optimism
A truth that everyone would be wise to accept at this point is that Prescott is good at football, and when he’s healthy, the Cowboys offense performs well. Want proof? Here’s how the offense has ranked in EPA per drive the last five times that Prescott’s started at least 12 games.
Cowboys Offense EPA/Drive With Dak Prescott
The Cowboys are well positioned to produce a top-five offense once again. They are bringing back their top five pass catchers from last season, including CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and Thorn is projecting that they’ll have a top-10 offensive line. Tremendous continuity combined with a fun scheme and good quarterback play should be a recipe for success.
The Cowboys made a bunch of defensive additions in the offseason, but two stand out: defensive coordinator Christian Parker and rookie safety Caleb Downs. Parker spent the past two seasons in Philadelphia under Fangio and had previously coached under him in Denver. His job is clear: It’s not about producing an elite defense. It’s about getting that unit to a level of competency that will allow the Cowboys offense to carry the team. Downs, meanwhile, was the 11th pick in this year’s draft. On paper, the Cowboys defense lacks impact players. They desperately need Downs to be good right away.
One other factor that I think the Cowboys have working in their favor: They might be well coached! I know. I can’t believe it, either. This time last year, I was making Brian Schottenheimer jokes like the rest of you, but it’s pretty clear now that the players seem to like him and he’s implemented a good offensive scheme. I like his coordinators. Could Schottenheimer be a little more aggressive with his in-game decision-making? Sure. But hey, nobody’s perfect.
Reasons for Concern
Remember how the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons before last season and then their defense turned into the worst in the NFL by just about every metric?
Dallas Cowboys Defensive Ranking 2025
Yet Jerry Jones wonders why he can’t have nice things. OK, he has a lot of nice things, but in this context, the nice thing would be a team that contends for a Super Bowl.
The Cowboys have some intriguing new defensive players, from Downs to edge defender Rashan Gary, linebacker Dee Winters, and cornerback Cobie Durant. But other than standout defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, there aren’t many sure things on that side of the ball. The hope has to be that Parker can coach up the young defensive backs, like second-year corner Shavon Revel Jr., while also finding ways to scheme up pressure. The Cowboys are making a big bet that Parker will know how to make the new pieces fit and that the whole will be greater than the sum of the parts.
How I See It
The Cowboys are 10-14-1 in their past 25 games with Prescott as their starter. Last year, they won seven games, and that was against the fifth-easiest schedule. This year, they face the seventh-hardest projected schedule. There’s a scenario in which this season looks exactly like last season for the Cowboys. The offense cooks, the defense stinks, they win seven or eight games, and they miss the playoffs.
But I think that this season will be different. The Cowboys offense is as reliable as any in the NFL. With Prescott, Lamb, Pickens, a decent O-line, and a good run game, they’ll just be really hard to defend most weeks. And on defense, Parker will be less vanilla than his predecessor, Matt Eberflus, who was clearly not up for the challenge of doing more with less after the Cowboys traded Parsons last season. I think that Dallas’s defense will get lit up at times early in the season, but if the young, talented defensive backs can find their way eventually, this could be an average unit in the second half of the year.
Every year, I try to find at least three new playoff teams in each conference. I’ve got the Cowboys as one of them, as a wild-card team. If their defense is a little better than expected or if the Eagles offense is a little worse than expected, Dallas could take the division.
Projected record: 10-7
Washington Commanders
What’s at Stake for the Commanders
I’m not saying for sure that Dan Quinn is on tilt about saving his job. But if he were on tilt about saving his job, this is what that would look like: Fire both coordinators. Hire two new coordinators who have no experience doing the job. And implement spelling bees and friendship quizzes to improve team morale.
Quinn seems like a nice enough guy. And I think he can be (and has been) a good coach in the right situation. But we all know the score here. If the Commanders underperform like they did last season, Quinn will be gone, and they will try to find a young, offensive-minded head coach who can maximize Jayden Daniels’s talents.
Reasons for Optimism
The Commanders were 5-12 last season, but they had a lot of things working against them. Daniels wasn’t healthy and started just seven games. They were 31st in turnover EPA. They were 30th in AGL, which measures which teams were most hurt by injuries. And they were 1-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. As mentioned above with the Eagles, turnover luck, injury luck, and performances in close games are not typically things that carry over from one year to the next. The 2025 Commanders got quite unlucky with those things. Perhaps the 2026 Commanders will land more around league average in those categories.
If Daniels regains the magic from his rookie season, that will give Washington its most direct path to a playoff berth. Last year, he ranked 25th in EPA per pass play and 15th in success rate among 37 qualifying quarterbacks. The difference in the two numbers suggests that Daniels was slightly above average down to down, but he got dinged by turnovers and a lack of explosive plays. Like the Eagles, the Commanders appear to be implementing a massive offensive scheme change, going from Kliff Kingsbury to David Blough. Blough has just two years of coaching experience and will be calling plays for the first time. The expectation is that Washington will implement more under-center, play-action schemes, as opposed to Kingsbury’s shotgun, up-tempo spread attack.
The scheme change on defense also appears to be significant. Quinn hired Daronte Jones from Minnesota, and he is expected to employ a creative Brian Flores–style attack with heavy blitzing to make up for roster deficiencies. Jones has an intriguing background, but like Blough, he has never been an NFL coordinator before. In addition to the scheme change, the Commanders overhauled their personnel, adding edge defenders Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson in free agency and drafting linebacker Sonny Styles seventh. If Jones proves to be a capable schemer, there are some pieces to work with here.
Reasons for Concern
If I were Quinn, I’d hire some PR help immediately. He seems to be taking all of the heat publicly for last year’s disappointing season. But has anyone looked at this depth chart?? The 2025 failures were not the result of a coach failing to maximize a talented roster. They were the result of the roster being flawed in the first place. The talent here is mediocre at best, yet general manager Adam Peters seems to be escaping criticism. Going into Daniels’s third season, why do you need to add a 32-year-old wide receiver (Stefon Diggs) in August to start for you? Diggs might wind up being good for Washington, but the whole point of having a promising quarterback on a rookie contract is that you can go above and beyond to pay up and surround him with talent. The Commanders, however, have tried and failed to do just that.
Meanwhile, up front, one of Washington’s best players, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, is out indefinitely with a torn triceps. Now they have a below-average skill group with a below-average offensive line and an unproven play caller. It could still work if Blough is good and Daniels is good. But it’s hard to bet that it will work. The truth is that there’s not a lot to hate here. There’s just a lot that’s meh and uncertain.
How I See It
If you squint, you can see some upside for this team. But there are a lot of ifs. And the Commanders are facing the NFL’s ninth-hardest schedule. The truth is that there are as many unknowns here as there are for any team in the NFL. If some bounces go the Commanders’ way, they could be a little sleepery and compete for a playoff spot. But I think that the most likely scenario is a season stuck in mediocrity.
Projected record: 8-9
New York Giants
What’s at Stake for the Giants
Can this franchise stop embarrassing itself? In the past 10 years, the only organization that has won fewer games than the New York Giants is the New York Jets. Since winning Super Bowl XLVI following the 2011 season, the Giants have won one playoff game. It’s now on John Harbaugh to get the franchise back to relevancy. The Giants don’t need to be a contender right away, but Harbaugh needs to prove that things will be different and that the Giants are heading in the right direction.
Reasons for Optimism
It starts with Harbaugh. He couldn’t get the Ravens over the hump with Lamar Jackson, but just three losing seasons over an 18-year span is an impressive run. Harbaugh’s .614 winning percentage ranks 14th of all time and is better than that of guys like Pete Carroll, Bill Parcells, and Mike Shanahan. Is it a little weird that every time I go to check out Giants coverage, I see a new “inside access” feature on Harbaugh? Sure. But what great coach hasn’t cared at least a little bit about great PR? Harbaugh has the credentials to get the Giants back to being a respectable, professional organization. And their fans should be excited about that.
As for the players, it all starts with Jaxson Dart. He is one of the toughest quarterbacks to project for 2026. Over the past 10 seasons, among 32 qualifying rookie quarterbacks, Dart’s 2025 performance ranks sixth in EPA per pass play. The only players with better rookie seasons by that metric are Dak Prescott, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Mac Jones. EPA per pass play takes everything into account, including turnovers, sacks, and explosive plays. But Dart ranked 30th out of 33 quarterbacks last season in success rate. This metric is binary. It quantifies each play as simply having a positive or a negative result and is a handy way to measure overall efficiency. The only quarterbacks who were less likely than Dart to produce a positive play on any given dropback were Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, and Cam Ward. In other words, Dart wasn’t very good on a down-to-down basis, but the plays he made were extremely impactful. That makes him one of the higher-variance quarterbacks in the NFL going into 2026.
The Giants went 4-13 last season, but all four wins came in the 12 games that Dart started. They were 1-6 in games decided by seven points or fewer, suggesting that they might not have been quite as bad as their final record indicated. The Giants have some talent at the premium positions, particularly wide receiver Malik Nabers, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and pass rushers Brian Burns and Abdul Carter. And they added a couple of first-round picks who should contribute right away: offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa and linebacker Arvell Reese. The cupboard isn’t completely bare for Harbaugh and his new staff.
Reasons for Concern
About that new coaching staff … let’s review who Harbaugh hired on the offensive side of the ball. Matt Nagy is his offensive coordinator. Andy Reid seemed to stealthily fire Nagy after underwhelming results in Kansas City last season, even though they both spun it as Nagy looking for a new opportunity. Under Nagy is Brian Callahan, fresh off one of the most incompetent head coaching tenures we’ve seen in years with the Titans, who now has a job as passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Harbaugh also hired Greg Roman, who Harbaugh’s brother, Jim, fired in Los Angeles, as a senior offensive assistant. This does not look like the brain trust I would want to surround my young quarterback with.
Speaking of that young quarterback, it’s no fun to predict injuries. But we can at least say that Dart’s reckless style of play will open him up to a lot of hits, and it’s hard to see a scenario where he stays healthy for all 17 games. Maybe he’ll adjust his play style in his second season, but I think that most of us are in “believe it when we see it” mode with that. As for Dart’s supporting cast, if Nabers is healthy, he’s a force multiplier. But if Nabers isn’t in the lineup, this won’t be a group that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.
Defensively, the pass rush looks good on paper, but last year the Giants ranked 21st in pressure rate and 17th in sack rate with most of the same key players. The bigger concern is their run defense, which was the worst in the NFL last season and looks just as bad on paper for 2026. The depth chart at defensive tackle, specifically, is highly concerning after Dexter Lawrence was traded away in the offseason.
How I See It
If you are a Giants fan and want to believe that this team can be frisky and compete for a wild-card spot this season, go for it. There’s a scenario in which Harbaugh shows he’s still got it, Dart is an exciting playmaker (and stays healthy), and Carter emerges as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
But I can’t get there. Harbaugh did not look like a great coach with the Ravens last year. I need to see a lot more from Dart before believing that he can be a real difference maker. This roster still has a lot of holes and lacks depth. And I’m not sure that the offensive coaching staff will be able to do more with less. This feels more like a transition year in which Harbaugh figures out which guys he wants to build with going forward.
Projected record: 6-11
