Last year offered plenty of change in the NFL hierarchy. Perennial Super Bowl contenders like the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens faltered and opened the door for four somewhat surprising teams to make it to conference championship weekend. Now that the 2026 season is just days away, the question is whether the typical juggernaut franchises will reclaim their position at the top of the NFL food chain, or whether we’re in for yet another year of change.
The upheaval in the NFL order is especially notable in the AFC betting markets, where the traditional top three teams (Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills) no longer stand above the rest. Meanwhile, the Rams are entering the year with the highest expected win total, and they are significant favorites to win the Super Bowl in their home stadium in February. They’re priced like a super-team. At The Ringer, we’ve already done offensive and defensive rankings, and we’ve been previewing each division. Now it’s time to bring it all together with a 32-team betting guide to identify the win totals, futures, awards markets, and long shots that will define the 2026 season.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has won at least 11 games in each of the past six seasons despite offensive coordinator changes, injury issues across the defense, and a lack of quality receiving options. The Bills offense is a lock for the top five every year—that’s one of the most predictable outcomes across the entire league. Their run rate and rushing efficiency peaked last year—although I suspect that was out of necessity, as the offense was trying to control the ball and hide just how terrible the run defense was.
I believe that Josh Allen is likely to throw the ball more in 2026, reversing the Bills’ trend toward more rushing. And that will come at a cost to running back James Cook as he tries to repeat his career 2025 season.
Best bet: James Cook under 1,175.5 rushing yards (–114)
New England Patriots
New England’s 2025 résumé has every regression indicator. The Patriots faced the easiest schedule in the NFL last year. They had the league’s best injury luck, per FTN’s adjusted games lost metric. They won the clear majority of their toss-up games. Drake Maye finished as the most efficient deep-ball passer in the league, and he’s prone to fall back a bit. As such, the Patriots didn't rest on their Super Bowl appearance but instead made a lot of improvements to their roster this offseason.
The Pats are a much better football team on paper entering 2026. And even though this offense is less established than the Bills’, I’d rate the two teams about the same entering the season. The betting markets say that the Bills are nearly a full win better. I disagree. New England’s continuity advantage—both its offensive and defensive coordinators are returning—makes me think that there’s not much of a gap between the top two teams in the AFC East.
Best bets: Over 9.5 wins (–130), win the AFC East (+130), and A.J. Brown 10-plus touchdowns (+250)
New York Jets
The analytics community is arguing that the Jets will benefit from positive regression this season. They recovered only 35.5 percent of their fumbles last year. They didn’t have a single interception on defense, which had never happened before in NFL history. The Jets were actually quite competitive in the first two months of the season and lost a bunch of close games even though they fielded a quarterback (Justin Fields) who isn’t NFL-starter material.
This offseason, a bunch of veterans were brought in to raise the floor of the defense. The team will inevitably force some turnovers, even if by accident. And the offense will at least be capable with Geno Smith under center—meaning that the Jets could win six or more football games.
Here’s the problem: New Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich hasn’t coached a quality NFL offense since 2020. Reich’s Colts unit cratered in 2022, and he was fired midseason; he didn’t make it to December in his single year in Carolina, either. And Reich’s interim Stanford stint in 2025 went poorly, too. He was one of the better offensive coaches in the league in the late 2010s, but as Slim Charles says in The Wire, “The thing about the old days ... they the old days.”
Even though head coach Aaron Glenn is defensive minded, that unit got walloped down the stretch in 2025. If the offense isn’t effective this season and the defense still has issues with tackling, the Jets could very well bottom out once again. And given my thoughts on the next team in this division, I think it’s worth taking a flier on that possibility. But if you feel strongly that the Jets can overperform based on the talent of their roster, then take Glenn to win Coach of the Year at +2000. It’s a boom-or-bust outlook.
Best bet: Jets to have fewer wins than the Dolphins (+210) OR Aaron Glenn Coach of the Year (+2000)
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are not trying to win this year. That’s clear from the front office, the cap, and their roster management. Plus, their schedule is absolutely brutal, the defense is incredibly young, and most of the team’s highest-paid players this season are not on the roster anymore.
All of that said, there’s usually little value in betting on a team that’s already been counted out. In fact, the market is often overconfident in projecting just how bad some of the worst teams in the league will be. So it’s worth at least considering a scenario in which Miami will outperform expectations.
Quarterback Malik Willis is in a prove-it situation, he’s playing behind a competent offensive line, and he’s passing to De’Von Achane, who is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL. Sure, Miami’s receiver room ranks 32nd out of 32 teams in talent, but the Dolphins’ ability to unleash Willis as a runner could give their offense its floor.
Best bet: Dolphins to have more wins than the Jets (+210)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
If you’re anticipating a major bounce-back year for the Ravens as they get healthier on defense and move into a new era with head coach Jesse Minter, congrats—the oddsmakers agree with you. The Ravens are projected to have the second-highest win total in the NFL, behind only the Rams, and that’s in large part because they have one of the most favorable schedules in the league.
It would not surprise me if the Ravens hit the ground running and end up as the best team in the AFC. I have them ranked in the top 10 on both offense and defense in my preseason power rankings. But there is a significant downside risk here. The roster has way less depth than usual, an oft-injured quarterback, aging corners, and two load-bearing defensive players who barely played last year. If Trey Hendrickson and Nnamdi Madubuike are not back to their pre-2025 selves, the Ravens’ easy schedule won’t be so easy. To bet on the Ravens at their current win total price, you’d have to be very sure that Lamar Jackson’s drop-off in rushing efficiency last season was just a one-year blip due to injury and not the start of an age-related decline.
Best bet: Miss playoffs (+240)
Cincinnati Bengals
If you were hoping to get a discount by betting on the Ravens and Bengals after their disappointing 2025 seasons, you’re out of luck. Oddsmakers weren’t so friendly. Armed with a favorable schedule in 2026, the Bengals are priced at –205 (roughly 67 percent) to make the playoffs, even though they have missed the postseason in each of the past three years. This is even-year Burrow, though, which means that the QB is due to stay upright and deliver another prolific passing season. And when Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are healthy, the Bengals consistently have a top-seven offense. That should be enough to get them back to the playoffs, given their competition. But it remains to be seen just how good the defense is.
The Bengals are most interesting as a regular season–ceiling team. The roster lacks depth and is fragile. But if everyone important stays healthy and they pounce on the easy schedule, they’ll be in the driver’s seat for a no. 1 seed.
Best bet: AFC no. 1 seed (+800)
Pittsburgh Steelers
By now, you’ve probably heard that Mike Tomlin went 19 seasons without a losing record in Pittsburgh. Since he’s been replaced by Mike McCarthy this year, it’d be easy to pencil in that this team will finally fall below that mark in 2026. But allow me to present an alternative case.
The defense had its second-worst season ever under Tomlin (and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin) last year and may have been trending in the wrong direction against modern offenses. New DC Patrick Graham, meanwhile, consistently gets his defenses to outperform their talent level—his Raiders defense finished 14th in DVOA last year. And with the additions the Steelers have made to the defensive backfield, Graham now has the most talented unit he’s ever coached.
The betting market has been warming up to Pittsburgh all summer, and its projected win total has risen steadily throughout August. I’m betting that the Steelers will go over their win total and keep the streak alive after Tomlin. They’re also worth a flier as a long shot to win the competitive but flawed AFC North.
Best bets: Over 8.5 wins (+115) and win the AFC North (+550)
Cleveland Browns
It would be hard for the Browns to get less from the quarterback position than they did last year. And the offensive roster is certainly more talented now with rookie receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. But how much more can we really expect from the Cleveland offense? Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson were the two worst quarterbacks by efficiency in the NFL last year. And the Browns are choosing to start the older, and more hated, quarterback in Week 1 on the road in Jacksonville.
When you throw in that there’s potential for defensive regression following the Myles Garrett trade, there’s no real floor for how bad Cleveland could be. The Browns’ home schedule in November and December suggests that they could pop off a couple of upset wins, but who’ll be playing quarterback by then? And how many quarterbacks should we expect to start for Cleveland this year? The smart money would be on over 2.5.
Best bet: Under 5.5 wins (–110)
AFC South
Houston Texans
The Texans have two players I’m eyeing as potential award winners if this team hits its ceiling on both sides of the ball. First, let’s start where Houston is reliably great.
Will Anderson Jr. led the NFL last year in total pass rush wins and finished fourth in pass rush win rate. He’s entering his prime at age 25 and has all of the underlying metrics of a player who is about to produce an elite sack total (he had seven, 11, and 12 sacks in his first three seasons, respectively). Defensive player of the year tends to be awarded to the league’s top pass rusher, and while Myles Garrett is the favorite to win, he just broke the NFL’s sack record last season. He’s unlikely to come close to that total again in L.A., and expectations around him and the Rams are extremely high. So the smart money could be on Anderson.
On offense, the Texans are trying to rebuild the line yet again and find some semblance of a run game. At best, Houston is a mediocre running team that uses the rushing attack as a jab to set up haymakers later. When this offense has been at its best, it’s fostered the connection between C.J. Stroud and top wideout Nico Collins.
Collins finished in the top five in yards per route run in both 2023 and 2024. He dipped to 10th last year as the Houston offense hit the basement. If you think the Texans will bounce back this season, then you should sprinkle on Collins to win offensive player of the year at +4000. He has top-receiver-in-the-NFL upside, especially if the Texans stop running the ball at the highest rate in the league on first down.
Best bets: Will Anderson Jr. DPOY (+650) and Nico Collins OPOY (+4000)
Jacksonville Jaguars
You could make the case that Liam Coen is on Ben Johnson’s level as an offensive play caller, just without the PR. Johnson earned golden-boy status after coaching an elite offense in Detroit. He then immediately turned the Bears around. But if you look at the before and after of Coen’s offenses in both Tampa Bay (2024) and Jacksonville (2025), he has a case to be in the Johnson conversation.
Trevor Lawrence was a top-five quarterback in adjusted EPA per play and success rate after Week 10 last year. That was made possible by the Jakobi Meyers trade, the explosion of Parker Washington, and Lawrence’s increased comfort with the offense. I don’t think the median or even mean outcome for Jacksonville is all that compelling from a betting perspective, and I haven’t bet on the team’s win total. But if you’re all in on Coen, the best way to leverage that would be to bet Lawrence at +1700 for MVP.
Best bet: Trevor Lawrence MVP (+1700)
Indianapolis Colts
It’s hard to imagine a more perfectly middling team than the Colts. The floor of the offense is quite high with Shane Steichen running the show—as long as Daniel Jones is a functional quarterback, which is a question after his Achilles injury. And the ceiling of the defense is quite low, unless they develop a real pass rush out of nowhere. None of the Colts skill-position players are particularly interesting from an awards perspective, and all of their defensive rookies play non-premium positions.
So let’s consider how this season could play out. Even if Jones is healthier than expected, there’s still not much room for this team to overperform. Maybe the Colts could win 11 games and the division—if you think that’s possible, consider Daniel Jones for Comeback Player of the Year at +2200.
But what if Jones isn’t fully recovered from his injury? The Colts have an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season. And a bad early record could spell doom for this squad. Even though I’m bullish on Indianapolis relative to the market, it’s easy to buy into the basement outcomes entering 2026.
Best bets: Daniel Jones Comeback Player of the Year (+2200) if you’re bullish, under 6.5 wins (+210) if you’re bearish
Tennessee Titans
The Titans would need to make a seismic leap from three wins last year to seven this year to go over their projected win total, and nothing from preseason reporting would suggest that is about to happen. Cam Ward finished near the bottom last year in all quarterback efficiency metrics. And even though Tennessee brought in Brian Daboll and Robert Saleh this offseason, those coaches’ reputations exceed their recent results.
Daboll’s offenses deteriorated after his first season with the Giants, while Saleh floundered for four years with the Jets. Sure, the Titans defense will improve. And maybe Ward will make a massive second-year jump and the new staff will raise the floor. But too much of the optimistic case depends on this team having a competent infrastructure.
The market initially embraced that possibility and priced Tennessee like an outsider with a competitive chance, but it has noticeably soured on the Titans lately. This still looks much more like a rebuilding roster than a legitimate playoff dark horse.
Best bets: Under 6.5 wins (–130) and worst record (+900)
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
This year, the Chiefs offense is looking to rely less on extreme pass rates for Patrick Mahomes and more on the run game. Kansas City finished dead last in explosiveness from its running game the past two seasons, and that put undue pressure on Mahomes (not to mention it left the team entirely one-dimensional). Kenneth Walker III isn’t the most reliable running back from a health perspective, but relative to what the Chiefs have had in the past, he’s a major upgrade.
Kansas City will lean on him, and I’ll be leaning on him for a 10-plus-touchdown season prop bet.
Best bet: Kenneth Walker III 10-plus touchdowns (+155)
Los Angeles Chargers
If you think as highly of Mike McDaniel as I do following his stint in Miami, then it’s only natural that you’d be excited about all the possibilities of his reimagined offense in L.A. First, there’s the potential for Omarion Hampton to have a breakout season.
Hampton is being taken in the top 15 of fantasy drafts, which shows how much ceiling the fantasy nerds think he has. He showed flashes in his rookie season, but ultimately put up little production due to injury. Now, he enters a scheme that’s built to create rushing lanes through motion, misdirection, and advantageous boxes. McDaniel helped make Raheem Mostert a 21-touchdown scorer at age 31. Hampton is younger, more talented, and capable of staying on the field in every situation.
The return of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater should also raise the team’s overall offensive floor, and Justin Herbert’s arm prevents defenses from selling out against the run. If the Chargers become a top-10 offense and Hampton approaches 1,500 scrimmage yards, his offensive player of the year candidacy will not feel as outlandish in December as it does right now.
Best bets: Win the AFC West (+200) and Omarion Hampton Offensive Player of the Year (+30000)
Denver Broncos
Denver won 14 games last season, reached the AFC championship game, and then added Jaylen Waddle. That the Broncos are projected to win fewer than 10 games is disrespectful. But I think it reflects the fact that a lot went right for the Broncos last year—and some of that good fortune isn’t sustainable year over year.
The defense demolished bad quarterbacks, but showed real cracks against legitimate offenses. Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Green Bay all found answers against it. The Broncos trailed in 15 of their 17 games and required numerous fourth-quarter comebacks to win, despite having a friendly schedule. Denver avoided Patrick Mahomes once and Justin Herbert once, and played against Marcus Mariota instead of Jayden Daniels and Jake Browning instead of Joe Burrow. That’s a legendary run of luck against good opposing quarterbacks.
Plus the team lost defensive passing game coordinator Jim Leonhard, who’s now in Buffalo, and defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers, who is in Tennessee. Denver should remain solid defensively because of its elite foundation, but the schedule of opposing quarterbacks is going to make it quite difficult to win in the ways they did in 2025. I’m taking a flier on Denver to start poorly this year.
Best bet: Broncos to start 1-4 (+400)
Las Vegas Raiders
If we learned anything from the Klint Kubiak offense last year, it’s that Kubiak will relentlessly target his top receiving option. He will scheme up explosive plays at every opportunity. And he will cover for offensive line deficiencies and make the whole more than the sum of its parts. Throw in Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback (for most of the year, at least), and you have the recipe for an elite Brock Bowers season. Bowers was rarely 100 percent healthy last year, and he still put up 680 yards in 12 games while playing in a broken offense.
Best bet: Brock Bowers over 925.5 yards (–114)
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are blowing up their offensive scheme of yesteryear and trying something new under coordinator Sean Mannion.
They’re asking Jalen Hurts to throw over the middle with anticipation. They’re relying on timing and motion more than past iterations did. The Eagles have always banked on the fact that they’re more talented than their opponents. But for the first time since A.J. Brown arrived in Philadelphia, I am questioning whether that’s the case.
The offensive line is still excellent on paper, but it has more downside risk given the end-of-season retirement questions surrounding Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson and their health. The run game took a major step back last season. And as Hurts becomes less of a runner as he ages, the offense becomes more reliant on his arm. Fortunately, that could be a sustainable solution in this new scheme. It also means that we can bet against him scoring touchdowns with his legs.
Best bet: Jalen Hurts under 7.5 rushing touchdowns (+112)
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ defensive numbers were truly bottom of the barrel last year, but the team has hit the reboot button in a way. Not only does Dallas have a new defensive coordinator in Christian Parker, but most of the roster has also turned over. So will this unit be better? Almost certainly. How much better? That’s the big question. When you compare this group with the one that existed before the Quinnen Williams trade, Dallas essentially has eight new starters. Many of the players on last year’s depth chart aren’t even rostered now. And Williams, plus Rashan Gary, DeMarvion Overshown, Von Miller, rookie Malachi Lawrence, and Caleb Downs, certainly looks like an impressive spine for the defense.
The Cowboys are projected to have a top-five offense, and there are obvious comparisons to be made between Dallas and Cincinnati. So I’m chasing the regular-season upside for both teams. The Cowboys are worth a flier on plus-money bets that they’ll both win the NFC East and end up with the conference’s top seed. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer is also a solid flier to win Coach of the Year at around +1500.
Best bets: Win the NFC East (+180) and NFC no. 1 seed (+1300)
Washington Commanders
The Commanders had a year from hell last season, and this year they’re entering Week 1 having already lost star left tackle Laremy Tunsil to a torn triceps. That invites major questions about how they're supposed to protect their franchise quarterback. Commanders beat writer Nicki Jhabvala actually moved the betting market with her post about the state of the offensive line. The win total took money toward the under when Tunsil got hurt. It took more money the day of that post, and it hasn’t really recovered. There’s not much belief in the Commanders.
If you want to look at Washington positively, its success starts and ends with Jayden Daniels putting up a season like 2024. The best way to bet that is to put money on Daniels to be Comeback Player of the Year at +750. But if you view Washington like I do, then the more standard bet is taking the under on wins.
Best bets: Under 7.5 wins (–110) if you’re bearish, Jayden Daniels Comeback Player of the Year (+750) if you’re bullish
New York Giants
I have been skeptical about the John Harbaugh hire from the moment he announced the rest of his coaching staff. Add in that the roster still has major skill-position question marks (depending on Malik Nabers’s health) and potential holes in the secondary, and the Giants are one of my favorite win total fades of the season. The Giants had a solid offense with Jaxson Dart at quarterback last year, but so much of that was driven by his scrambles and deep passes. Dart has to improve at the down-to-down stuff, and I’m not sure Matt Nagy and Greg Roman are the offensive minds to engineer that.
It’s absolutely true that the Giants were better than their record indicated last year. They were essentially a seven-win team that won only four games. However, there are so many holes in this roster that I don't think they'll win more than seven games this season.
Best bet: Under 7.5 wins (–115)
NFC North
Detroit Lions
Since the market opened in June, there’s been steady over money pouring into the Lions. Like the Bengals in the AFC, the Lions have an easy schedule, a dominant skill-position group, and a track record of elite offense. But Detroit has major holes in the defensive secondary due to injuries, and there are emerging questions along the interior of the offensive line. And unlike each of their division rivals, who retained their offensive play callers, the Lions also have their fourth different play caller in three seasons.
The expectations for Detroit this year are a real mixed bag. I am generally lower on the offense than most due to my uncertainty about the play caller and questions about the offensive line. But because of how easy its non-divisional schedule is, I’m not ready to straight fade Detroit.
The Packers have had a ton of success against this Lions defense. Minnesota and Brian Flores stifled Jared Goff multiple times last year. And the Lions will end the year on the road in Chicago and Green Bay, in potentially bad weather. Based on all that, I settled on Lions under 3.5 division wins as my favorite way to play against them.
Best bet: Under 3.5 division wins (–140)
Green Bay Packers
It’s easy to forget just how dominant Green Bay was in the opening weeks of the 2025 season. The Packers smoked both the Lions and Commanders at home and looked like they had a top-five offense and maybe even a top-five defense. They had a game-breaking edge rusher in Micah Parsons, and they were my early-season Super Bowl pick as a result. Then came a series of calamitous injuries.
Fast-forward one year, and everyone is ready to write off Green Bay in its brutal division. I totally understand why. Without Josh Jacobs, the running game looks barren. But the run game last year was already the worst of the Matt LaFleur era. The offensive line has holes, and interior pressure could doom Jordan Love. The lack of pass rush and corners is a problem, too.
However, the Packers have an elite offensive pedigree and an extremely talented, albeit injury-prone, pass catching group. The depth is gone, but the starters—Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft—are borderline elite as a unit.
If the Packers lose any more skill guys, this could fall apart quickly. Just look at what happened in the Eagles game last year, a 10-7 loss in which the Packers couldn’t move the ball at all (it was their first game without Kraft). But Green Bay should have a top-10 offense again, and that’s hard to bet against, especially since Parsons will hopefully be back in October. The Packers are rated about even with the Lions for me if Parsons is back for half the year. And I will once again ride with the cheese accordingly.
Best bets: Over 9.5 wins (–110) and win the NFC North (+250)
Chicago Bears
With every confident Ben Johnson quote and Caleb Williams preseason highlight, the media inflates the Chicago balloon further. But it’s exceedingly rare for a team to make a leap in one season, like the Bears did last year, and then make another jump in the ensuing year. There are regression concerns here—and Johnson himself has talked about wanting to spurn those.
But the Chicago defense will almost certainly be the worst of the eight offensive and defensive units in this division. So even if the Bears offense is the best—which is far from a guarantee, given the competition—the albatross of a defense could weigh it down.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that after Coby Bryant’s injury, this could be one of the bottom four defenses in the league. That makes the Bears vulnerable to missing the playoffs.
Best bet: Bears to miss playoffs (–110), consider Bears to finish fourth in the NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are entering the season with the worst projected odds in the NFC North. But while the defensive personnel doesn’t look elite on paper, Brian Flores has coached this team up to be top five in DVOA in two straight seasons. Even if the defense takes a step back, we have more than enough evidence to show that this unit will outperform its talent level and probably end up no worse than 10th in efficiency.
Maybe Kyler Murray truly has declined and this experiment won’t work out. But this is the best situation Murray’s ever been in; he’s surrounded by an excellent skill-position group and an above-average offensive line. I’m not saying that this will be a repeat of 2024, when the Vikings were surprisingly one of the best teams in the NFL as Sam Darnold revived his career, but there’s not much of a gap between the Vikings and the rest of this division, and their schedule is marginally easier than the Packers’ and Bears’. If Murray is just average in efficiency, as he’s been throughout his career, Minnesota will be in every divisional game and could compete for the NFC North title in January.
Best bets: Over 2.5 division wins (–110) and win the NFC North (+500)
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers suffered through both an injury crisis and a defensive crisis last season and still finished in a three-way tie at the top of the division. The loss of wide receiver Mike Evans is important in theory, but in reality he gave them very little production last season. Tampa has the best quarterback, best offensive line, and best pass rush in the NFC South.
This will be yet another year with a new offensive coordinator for the Bucs, but it’s not as if this was a great passing offense last season anyway. It took a step back after Liam Coen departed for Jacksonville. The jury may still be out on offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, but this offense was just 15th in EPA per dropback in 2025, despite Baker Mayfield’s highly efficient scrambling year.
The defensive secondary could have some real holes as it tries to replace Jamel Dean, but the team’s first two draft picks—pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and linebacker Josiah Trotter—have a chance to be immediate difference makers.
Small arms be damned, I’m riding with Bain to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. We know that first-round picks—specifically pass rushers—have historically won this award. Carson Schwesinger, a second-round pick in 2025, was a major outlier when he won it last year. If Bain revitalizes the Bucs defense en route to a division title, that would put him in serious contention. He’s a much better bet than Cowboys safety Caleb Downs (safeties never win this) or inside linebackers on worse projected defenses, like the Commanders and Giants.
Best bets: Win the NFC South (+175) and Reuben Bain Jr. Defensive Rookie of the Year (+500)
New Orleans Saints
The Saints played from behind more than every other team in the NFL last season, and now they’re blessed with one of the easiest schedules in the league. I’m not necessarily buying the Saints overall this year—although I do think they’re a rightful second in this division. But I am buying the rushing attack’s efficiency. Kellen Moore has traditionally schemed up quality run games, and the addition of Travis Etienne Jr. gives him a back to lean on for the bulk of the carries.
As New Orleans plays with a lead more often, I expect Etienne will find six touchdowns or more.
Best bet: Travis Etienne Jr. six-plus touchdowns (+125)
Atlanta Falcons
There has been a ton of discussion this offseason about the QB Battle That Wasn’t. But I’m almost as worried about the defense now that James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker will miss half and all of the season, respectively. Pearce is suspended for eight games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy after a February arrest on domestic violence charges (felony charges could be dropped if Pearce meets the conditions of a pretrial diversion program), and Walker is out injured. The Falcons defense took a real step forward last year, and if it falls back to mediocre, the offensive skill group won’t be able to rescue it.
Bijan Robinson and Drake London are great, but the depth behind them is abysmal. The deeper I look at this team, the less compelling it is. Their projected win total has dropped like a rock over the past month, so there’s not much value in betting against them on the season-long win total markets. However, given the difficulty of their early-season schedule, I think it’s worth taking a flier on them to be the last winless team at +1200. This is their start to the season:
- Pittsburgh (A)
- Panthers (H)
- Packers (A)
- Saints (A)
- Ravens (H)
- Bears (H)
They’ll be favored at home against Carolina in Week 2, but outside of that game, the path to a win is challenging.
Best bet: Falcons to be the last winless team (+1200)
Carolina Panthers
Even though the Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9 last season and nearly beat the Rams in the playoffs, they weren’t a particularly good football team. The Panthers nabbed a few high-profile upset victories to mask their mediocre underlying metrics. If you exclude garbage time, Bryce Young was a less efficient passer than Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jacoby Brissett in 2025. The running game was quite good for a stretch, but the departure of Rico Dowdle and injuries along the offensive line threaten the continued success of the ground attack.
Carolina’s offensive line would have graded out as clearly above average at full strength, but without both Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton, it could be in the bottom five of the league. And while the Panthers added linebacker Devin Lloyd this offseason and should be better against the run, the pass defense won’t be much improved unless they can find a real pass rush.
The Panthers have a limited passing offense, an injured offensive line, and a shaky defense at the premium positions (Jaycee Horn excluded). It could be a long year—one that ends with Dave Canales on the hot seat.
Best bet: Under 6.5 wins (+110)
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were already the best team in football last season, and then they decided that running it back was simply not enough. So they added Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trent McDuffie to a roster that came within one game of the Super Bowl and was power-rated as the best team in the NFL at the end of the year. There are legitimate age and durability concerns here, but they have enough depth to assuage them.
Los Angeles possesses the league’s best offensive infrastructure. Sean McVay produced a historically efficient offense last season despite Matthew Stafford offering nothing as a runner, and the Rams can win through their running game, their stars at receiver, or McVay’s ability to scheme open whichever fourth option the opposing defense forgot existed.
The problem with betting on the Rams is that none of this is a secret. Their projected win total is enormous, and their Super Bowl price has been flattened accordingly, so there isn’t value there. That’s why I’m looking at running back props. Kyren Williams is their starter, and a good one, but McVay heavily relied on a running back committee toward the end of last season. Having a tougher schedule this year will make it harder for them to rely on just Williams.
I’m fading Williams’s usage and will be looking to bet the Rams to win the NFC West after the brutal start to their schedule.
Best bet: Kyren Williams under 925.5 yards (–114)
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks defense finished first in DVOA against both the run and the pass last season, and Mike Macdonald has constructed a unit that can erase the run without overloading the box, manufacture confusion without constantly blitzing, and survive without relying on turnovers. There is no obvious schematic pressure point for opponents to target here.
The offense doesn’t need to be elite for Seattle to threaten the Rams. The Seahawks have invested enough in the offensive line and skill-position group to create a respectable floor, and their willingness to play conservatively is much less frustrating when paired with a defense that’s capable of controlling games.
Seattle would be the clear favorite in at least half the divisions in the league this year. But in the NFC West, it gets stuck behind a superteam. Still, its early-season schedule is much easier than Los Angeles’s. The Rams’ first month of the season involves a brutal trip to Melbourne, a road trip to Denver, and a cross-country game in Philly. Seattle’s toughest two games in the first five are at home (against New England and San Francisco), and it has two manageable road games at Arizona and at Washington. Grab the Seahawks to win the division preseason and look to come back on the Rams after their tough stretch.
Best bet: Win the NFC West (+210)
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers remain the team most likely to receive the universal benefit of the doubt because of their coach and offensive infrastructure. Kyle Shanahan provides an exceptionally high offensive floor, and last season’s nearly identical production from Brock Purdy and Mac Jones showed how strong the overarching system is. But this year, San Francisco is trying to preserve its old identity with a roster that no longer has the same physical advantages.
The running game has steadily declined, falling from third in EPA in 2023 to 16th last season. The stars who once made this offense feel unfair are older, less durable, or gone, and adding Mike Evans into the mix only makes the age curve more dramatic. The defense has also lost the depth that allowed it to rotate waves of pass rushers and survive injuries in recent seasons. It will bounce back just based on health alone, but can we count on those previously injured players to regain their form?
Shanahan and Purdy will keep the 49ers competitive, but I don’t see this team having a championship ceiling, and this division is absolutely brutal. The best bet here is probably for De'Zhaun Stribling to be the leading rookie wide receiver this year, given that his strongest competition is on bad offenses in Tennessee and Cleveland.
Best bet: De’Zhaun Stribling most receiving yards as a rookie (+470)
Arizona Cardinals
If the Cardinals played in any other division, I’d make a case for them as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. Alas, the schedule is impossible for them to navigate. But the offense looks legitimately interesting. Jacoby Brissett was mediocre but not terrible efficiency-wise last season. The team was competitive for the first 60 percent of its games before the wheels came off defensively; Arizona had more injuries on defense than any other team in Aaron Schatz’s adjusted games lost database.
The offensive line looks mediocre on paper, but the offensive skill group is clearly above average and balanced. And based on health alone, the Cardinals defense will be better in 2026. The quarterback room is clearly a glaring hole here, but Arizona will be a live underdog an awful lot this season.
It’s challenging to know the best way to approach them in the betting markets. There’s no upside in this division, and they don’t have any one individual worth betting on except for rookie running back Jeremiyah Love for Rookie of the Year. So that’s my pick. The ROY market has been active all summer, with a medley of receivers getting massive price bumps, while players like De’Zhaun Stribling, Ja’Kobi Lane, KC Concepcion, and Denzel Boston have seen their prices cut in half. That’s helped Love have more value at the top of the board.
Best bet: Jeremiyah Love OROY (+470)
