Welcome back to The Ringer’s Ball Knower’s Notebook. We’re taking the best and worst of the most recent slate and giving it a closer look through the all-22 film angles.
We’re covering a little bit of everything in this edition, from Jalen Carter’s big day against the Jaguars, to Christian Watson’s potential breakout season, to Bo Nix torpedoing Denver’s offense, to a thrilling Monday Night Football matchup.
We’re also putting an All-22 Spotlight on frustrating coverage breakdowns and an example of good coverage rendered irrelevant by perfect offense. This was a fun week to review, and I can’t wait to share it all with you. Let’s talk some ’ball.
What Went Well: Josh Allen Willing His Way to a Win
The NFL has given us some damn good offensive showcases in prime time this year, and the best of the bunch might have been Monday night's matchup between the Rams and Bills, which Buffalo won 37-34 in overtime.
Control of the game swung back and forth so frequently that I struggle to say that any one thing decided the outcome … except for Rams kicker Harrison Mevis getting his game-winning field goal attempt blocked in overtime. But what I am certain of is who the most unstoppable force was on the field, and that was Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Allen led all players with 121 rushing yards on Monday, 91 of which came in the fourth quarter and overtime. His scrambling was Buffalo’s best offense all night, and the Rams were helpless against it.
When someone that size hits top speed, it can make even the sport’s most reliable tacklers look like practice-squad players. Allen’s late-game heroics helped dispel the memory of his disappointing first half, when he threw just seven times for 60 yards and one of his throws produced a WTF-inducing interception a minute before halftime.
To come back from an inexplicable throw like that and give us multiple game-breaking plays is the true Josh Allen Experience, and it’s why many (including me) can live with his worst and remain optimistic about his best. When Buffalo needed it, Allen put his struggling defense and running back (James Cook, who almost fumbled the game away) on his back and carried this team to a win without his best receiver in D.J. Moore. Allen still looks like the best quarterback in football this season, and he jumped back to the top of my MVP leaderboard after Monday night.
What Went Well: Jalen Carter’s Swim Move
When Philadelphia drafted defensive tackle Jalen Carter ninth overall in 2023, it was hoping he’d be a foundational piece of its defense. Sure enough, he had an All-Pro season in 2024 and anchored a Super Bowl–winning unit. Then, when Philadelphia signed Carter to a $152 million extension this summer, they expected him to take the next step toward being a consistently elite force.
In Sunday’s game against the Jaguars, Carter met those expectations. In Philadelphia’s 19-17 loss to Jacksonville, he finished with three tackles for loss and a pair of sacks and was clearly the best player on the field. And so far this season, he’s tied for second in the NFL in tackles for loss and fourth in sacks, living up to his billing as one of the best young players in football. One of my favorite things about Carter’s game right now is the development of his signature move: the arm-over (or “swim”) he uses to throw offensive linemen past him. It’s the same move Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald has used throughout his Hall of Fame–worthy career—and Carter has an additional 30 pounds on Donald and 4 inches of wingspan to help move blockers out of his way.
Carter used the move several times to get in the backfield against the Jaguars, like in the clip below. Jacksonville is trying to run the ball behind its two tight ends, and the Eagles have two deep safeties—which signals to the offense that they don’t have enough players up front to account for every gap. Philadelphia is also leaving a ton of space between Carter and edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie, so any mistakes by the Eagles front will lead to a huge hole. Philly sends slot corner Cooper DeJean on a blitz to get an extra body at the line of scrimmage, but the play is truly made by Carter’s swim move. He discards guard Ezra Cleveland and gets into the exact gap Jacksonville tries running into.
You know a defensive lineman has thoroughly won a rep when you see an offensive lineman facing his own backfield, as Cleveland was there. And it wasn’t the only time Carter dominated Cleveland on Sunday. In the next clip, Carter uses the same swim move to beat Cleveland as a pass rusher, instantly winning after the snap and knocking the ball out of quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s hand for his first of two strip sacks. As you watch the clip, focus on the precision of Carter's hands and feet when executing this move. First, Carter’s left hand strikes Cleveland’s right elbow, which negates Cleveland’s attempt to engage him and throws the guard off-balance. By the time Cleveland regains his footing and tries to reengage, Carter already has a full head of steam and an angle on Lawrence. Because Carter’s toes were pointed at Lawrence, he was able to bend around a tight corner, and that’s why he was close enough to knock the ball out of Lawrence’s hand, even as he trips over tackle Cole Van Lanen.
These are the kinds of examples coaches call “teaching tape”—something you can use to show other players what they should be emulating. But sometimes, there are things only a select few humans on earth are capable of doing, and that’s what we see in the clip below. Carter again blows past Cleveland with his arm-over move, but this time he takes a wider angle so that edge rusher Nolan Smith can twist inside on a defensive line stunt. Jacksonville handles this properly, with Van Lanen and Cleveland exchanging their blocking assignments. But it doesn’t matter because Carter’s footwork is so graceful. Watch Carter rip through Van Lanen and turn the corner to force another strip sack, one he recovers himself. As a high school football coach myself, I can take the best defensive tackle in San Diego County and work on this move for months, but they may never have the combination of athletic gifts and mobility to pull it off—especially at 315 pounds.
With Philadelphia’s offense looking like one of the worst in the league, there’s no telling where the Eagles’ season might go from here. But I’ll keep tuning in as long as Carter is playing at this level.
What Went Well: Christian Watson’s Deep Targets
Packers receiver Christian Watson is finally in the midst of his breakout season. During Green Bay’s disappointing start—particularly in the trenches—Watson’s been doing the heavy lifting for this offense, with 474 receiving yards and six touchdowns. His production through the first five weeks is quadruple his previous best, when he had 116 yards in 2023.
Now that he’s healthy, we’re seeing the potential top-10 receiver talent that Green Bay always believed he had, and his production is coming via his best trait—his ridiculous speed. Per Next Gen Stats, Watson has the ninth-fastest top speed of any ballcarrier this season, at 21.09 miles per hour. His speed allows Packers quarterback Jordan Love to rip passes downfield, and their synergy is why Watson leads the league in expected points added on targets of at least 15 air yards.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur knows that Love and Watson are in perfect sync right now, and he’s using it to tear apart his opponents' coverages. In the clip below, Green Bay breaks the huddle in 13 personnel (three tight ends), and Chicago responds with its “base” defense (three linebackers, four defensive backs). When defenses are in base, you’re likely to get one of two things: hyper-aggressive blitzing or extremely safe zone coverages. Both are used in hopes of protecting linebackers from being caught in bad matchups—and Chicago tried the former with a double cornerback blitz. However, when tight end Mark Redman motions across the formation, Chicago ends up with linebacker D’Marco Jackson chasing Watson up the seam. That’s an impossible situation for Jackson, and it results in a 31-yard strike.
Green Bay relentlessly hunted mismatches like these when Chicago was in base defense, with Watson gaining 80 of his 143 yards (and Love passing for 252 of his 367 yards) when the Bears had fewer than five defensive backs on the field. In the next clip, Green Bay again has multiple tight ends on the field (this time in 12 personnel), and Chicago again tries a double corner blitz, hoping to stop the run or sack Love. Unfortunately, that aggression means linebacker Devin Bush is left out on the perimeter, and he has no chance to impede Watson’s vertical route. Because Chicago’s blitz doesn’t get home, Love has enough time and space in the pocket to launch this 42-yard touchdown pass, and Watson is moving so fast that Bears safety Xavier Woods doesn’t even realize Watson’s streaking by him until the ball’s in the air.
Watson had an excellent day on Sunday, but I also want to credit Green Bay’s offensive line for improving enough to pick these blitzes up and allow Love the time to be an aggressive passer. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Packers were allowing pressure on nearly half of Love’s dropbacks. In their past two games, they’ve allowed the lowest pressure rate in the league, at just 20 percent. That’s helped this offense get back to its explosive nature—and helped LaFleur cool off his seat for the time being.
What Went Wrong: Sean Payton Commandeering Play Calling Duties
We’re only a month into this NFL season, so I’m leaving myself open to the possibility that head coach Sean Payton can help Denver’s passing game turn a major corner. But that optimism is all I have to lean on right now, because the Broncos aren’t fielding a championship-level offense at this stage, and their biggest holdup is quarterback Bo Nix.
Nix is a good athlete with enough arm strength to make any throw he wants. He was experienced coming into the NFL, has had ample opportunity to develop in the league, has one of the best supporting casts of any quarterback, and has the gift of continuity, as he’s known only one offensive system in his pro career. Everything about Denver’s scheme is designed for any kind of quarterback to succeed, especially one as talented as I believe Nix is. But this offense cannot ascend the way it should be able to as long as Nix is playing the way he’s been this season.
Of the 31 quarterbacks who’ve started at least three games this year, Nix ranks 25th in passer rating and 28th in yards per attempt. It would be one thing if Nix were aggressively pushing the ball downfield and simply going through a cold streak—or if he were under too much pressure in the pocket. But neither of those applies right now, as Nix has the lowest air yards per pass attempt in the league and the second-lowest quarterback hit rate (in part because he bails out of the pocket so often). Both Payton and offensive coordinator Davis Webb have been dealing with the same issue, and it isn’t play calling. It’s their quarterback breaking the scheme, like you see in the tweet below.
Payton took play calling back after the team’s 24-14 loss to the 49ers in Week 4, ostensibly to give Nix more opportunities to make throws he’s comfortable with. That means more routes near the sideline—so far this year, Nix averages the league’s fewest number of throws between the numbers. But what happens when a quarterback won’t throw in the middle of the field, and his opponent knows it? You get clips like the one below, from Sunday’s 23-17 win over the Chargers, where L.A. defenders are plastered to receivers and there’s no space for Nix to throw into. Cornerback Tarheeb Still has a jump on receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey’s out-breaking route because he knows Humphrey won’t get targeted if his route breaks across the field.
The Chargers were able to play man and aggressive match coverages against the Broncos throughout Sunday’s game, daring Nix to sit in the pocket and work through progressions over the middle of the field. That strategy worked well despite the Chargers’ loss, because Nix wouldn’t take those chances even when his receivers were open. In the clip below, Denver designs a “snag” concept for Nix on third down, with two underneath routes in the flats and one deep corner route. Nix’s job is to read the coverage over these three routes, then, if none are open, get his eyes to the deep in-route on the backside. Los Angeles is in man coverage to take away yards after catch on quick throws—but that means the backside dig should be open (and it is). If Nix resets in the pocket, there’s a chance to target receiver Courtland Sutton and move the chains, but he instead forces the ball underneath for a completion well short of the sticks. These decisions might be good enough to beat a floundering Chargers team, but they won’t help Denver win the AFC.
And one of the biggest reasons Nix has these issues is because of how poorly he manages the pocket. The next time you’re at home watching a quarterback, pay attention to their feet—that often communicates whether they feel confident in their eyes and their pass protection. If your feet are unsettled in the pocket, you don’t feel like you have enough time to work through reads and get your body ready to deliver throws accurately.
Nix seems to have an issue with trusting the play’s design (or maybe it’s that he doesn’t trust himself). In the next clip, Nix is working through a “dagger” concept, the same one that drew the ire of many Broncos fans against the 49ers. Again, he has a window on the deep in-breaking route, but it’s just tight enough for me to understand why Nix decided not to throw it there. What I can’t understand is why he wouldn’t then reset and throw the checkdown to running back R.J. Harvey with a lead blocker in space. It’s second-and-20 before halftime, so it would actually make sense to take the checkdown in hopes that Harvey gains enough yards to make third down manageable. And there’s plenty of space for an even bigger play if tight end Nate Adkins makes his block. When you watch from the end zone view, the indecision that leads to his sack is shown by his feet. Nix looks frantic and off-balance throughout the play, even though the pocket is clean until he runs himself into a strip sack. That one play is representative of the Nix experience this year—watching him leave easy yards on the table and create more problems for himself.
Payton will have his hands full trying to iron the hesitation out of his quarterback. Tailoring the scheme to an apprehensive Nix clearly isn’t working for Denver, and as long as Nix plays this way, the Broncos’ opponents will continue to challenge him to throw to the middle of the field. Whether or not the Broncos meet expectations this year will be determined by Nix, and he doesn't seem willing to do what’s necessary to maximize their opportunities.
All-22 Spotlight: Las Vegas’s Blown Coverage
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has finally found the same groove he was in last season, leading the league in expected points added on dropbacks over the past two weeks and putting up a 123.2 passer rating.
It’s hard enough to play defense against any elite quarterback on a hot streak—the last thing you want to do is make things even easier with a coverage breakdown. But that’s exactly what occurred on Sunday when receiver DeMario Douglas broke free on a 35-yard touchdown to kick off the scoring in New England’s 45-17 blowout win over the Raiders.
Let’s take a look at what happened in the Raiders secondary, because this kind of breakdown should never happen. Las Vegas is in Cover 4 against New England, and having safeties over the top should protect this defense from giving up deep passes. But when tight end Tanner Arkin stays in to protect, safety Jeremy Chinn causes the blown coverage. By the rules of Cover 4, safety Treydan Stukes and cornerback Hezekiah Masses should be running with their respective receivers, and Chinn should help in coverage against the most dangerous receiving threat running deep across the field. With both a dig and a post route coming Chinn’s way, he has a bit of a high-low conflict, but he can’t necessarily be wrong by helping against either receiver—and he commits to the dig when he sees Stukes running with Douglas on the post. But Stukes gets lost after a great route from Douglas, and he makes the error of assuming Chinn is covering for him. In Cover 4, deep defenders can never assume that they’re receiving help, and they aren’t supposed to abandon vertical threats in their area.
This is a rookie mistake from Stukes that makes life easy on Maye and the Patriots, and it isn’t the only time New England found open receivers downfield on Sunday. Maye finished the game with 374 yards and four passing touchdowns, peppering the Raiders secondary throughout. Las Vegas has a lot to clean up defensively after allowing nearly 1,000 yards of offense over the past two weeks—especially unacceptable busted coverage like this.
All-22 Spotlight: Will Anderson Jr. Borrowing From Danielle Hunter
My appreciation for Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is well documented, and he’s been the best defensive player in football over the first five weeks of the season, leading the league in both sacks and tackles for loss.
He tied his single-game high with three sacks against Tennessee on Sunday, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise given how much better Anderson is than the Titans’ tackles. But what I enjoyed most from his performance was seeing the growth in his game—and how much of that is a result of borrowing from teammate Danielle Hunter.
Hunter’s signature move is a jab step that looks like it's lifted straight out of an NBA highlight tape. He uses it to confuse offensive linemen and knock them off their rhythm; then he changes gears and flies by them for a sack. He has one of the most unorthodox approaches to pass rushing you’ll ever see, and Anderson is trying to use it to set up his power rushes. In the clip below, you see Anderson deploy Hunter’s jab step, but the movement is too exaggerated and he doesn’t leave himself enough space to get by tackle JC Latham. Still, his failed attempt forced Latham to stop his feet long enough for Anderson to turn the corner and get a sack. The move has value for him even when it isn’t perfectly executed because he’s a good enough athlete to win with just the slightest angle or advantage.
On this next clip, you see Anderson use the move much more effectively. Houston has him lined up off the ball in a “spinner” position—something Danny Kelly broke down in a blog over a decade ago, if you’re interested in learning about the role—and Anderson uses the jab step to find an area to attack. When Tennessee's protection scheme becomes clear (sliding to the offense’s right), Anderson knows to attack guard Peter Skoronski. His jab steps throw off Skoronski’s rhythm, and Anderson sprints by for another easy sack. This is an encouraging development for Anderson’s game and makes me think he’ll get even better at it as the season goes on.
Anderson is hard enough to block already. If he can actually master Hunter’s unpredictable style of pass rushing, the Defensive Player of the Year trophy will be his.
All-22 Spotlight: Justin Jefferson Dunks on Triple Coverage
Kyler Murray has already learned the most important lesson of playing in the Vikings offense: Receiver Justin Jefferson is down there somewhere.
In the clip linked above, Jefferson fights through a re-route from a Saints defender (that could’ve been a penalty for illegal contact), regains his footing, and somehow tracks the ball through three Saints defenders to complete the catch in the back of the end zone. Besides the catch—which is on the short list of best offensive plays this year—I loved watching Murray pat the ball several times waiting for Jefferson to get to the perfect spot for this throw. He knew this was the best decision he could make, and it didn’t matter what New Orleans did to try to stop it.
I can’t even say the Saints did anything wrong here! Outside of a true double-team, any coverage that ends with three defenders surrounding Jefferson in the end zone is probably the right idea. It just doesn’t matter when the ball is thrown this well and when Jefferson’s on the receiving end.
Even when he’s covered, Jefferson is open. Minnesota’s offense has been a tough watch this year, but getting the ball in his hands as often as possible will go a long way toward fixing things.
