The NFL is back, and we’re already (over?) reacting to Drake Maye’s three interceptions in New England’s season-opening loss to Seattle. So there is no better time to go on the record with my award picks, from MVP to Coach of the Year and everything in between.
I’m a voter for the AP’s annual awards, so I’ll be thinking about these categories and the All-Pro list all season. While I’m certainly not anchoring myself to any of these predictions, this is my process for setting up my short list for each award as we head into the season, and I’ll share my insights into what my fellow voters might be paying attention to.
Most Valuable Player: Quarterback Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
I think the NFL is due for a fresh face to win MVP this year. For most of this decade, we’ve started the season with the same favorites: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen, each of whom has won the award at least once already. I think it would take near record-setting production by any of those quarterbacks (or total team dominance) to win over a plurality of the voters again. Love could be an unexpected winner. He’s currently fifth in MVP odds to open the year on FanDuel (+2200)—so not a favorite, not a dark horse, but fitting for someone who at times plays like a top 5 quarterback. Just watch these clips:
Because Love hasn’t won double-digit games in a single season or had a deep playoff run yet, the average fan probably views him as a good but not great quarterback. But his passing statistics suggest that he is bordering on elite. Last year, he finished in the top 10 in passer rating (101.2) and yards per attempt (7.7). His passing volume should be up this year, especially if Green Bay’s defense struggles at all without edge rusher Micah Parsons (who’s recovering from last season’s torn ACL) and the offense has to put up high-scoring games. Love should throw enough to cross the 4,000-yard mark this year, and if he can lead the Packers to an NFC North title, he’d be credited for carrying this team in Parsons’s absence.
Watch list: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence
Offensive Player of the Year: Wide Receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Volume is everything when it comes to this award. The last four receivers to win the award, including Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year, were targeted at least 160 times (three had at least 180 targets!). The last four running backs to win had at least 330 touches. Efficiency on less opportunity might land a player on the All-Pro team, but this hardware is won by virtue of workload.
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Only one receiver has been targeted 160 or more times in each of the past two regular seasons: Chase. He’s the engine of Cincinnati’s offense, he’s arguably the most explosive receiver in football, and we already have proof of how well he produces when he’s getting a high volume of targets. Chase had a strong case to win this award for the 2024 season, when he had 17 touchdowns and 1,708 receiving yards. He was beaten out by Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, who surpassed 2,000 rushing yards. If Cincinnati gets back into the playoffs this season, it’ll almost certainly be because of its high-powered passing game—specifically because Joe Burrow will be feeding the ball to Chase and letting the receiver cook in the open field.
Watch list: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Taylor, George Pickens
Defensive Player of the Year: Edge Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans
Anderson is an incredible player to watch and the embodiment of an elite edge rusher. He’s much lighter than the offensive linemen he’s lining up against, but he physically dominates with his strength and high motor. Anderson’s speed gives him the option to run around the tackles he can’t bully physically. His 2025 highlight reel should be nightmare fuel for NFL quarterbacks.
I’ve been predicting that Anderson will become the best defensive player in football for the past three years, and I’m too invested to waver on that take now. He has had 30 sacks and 46 tackles for loss in his first three years in the league, and he’s quickly become the kind of rusher that no offense can afford to block one-on-one.
Rams edge rusher Myles Garrett is the only player who could beat out Anderson for this award, but Garrett would be a repeat winner (so voters could have fatigue). Garrett was singularly dominant during his time in Cleveland, but in L.A. he’ll be playing alongside other stars, which could depress his own stats. That could help open the door for Anderson to emerge as the premier edge rusher of 2026.
Watch list: Myles Garrett, Nik Bonitto, Jalen Carter, Kyle Hamilton
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Wide Receiver Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans
This was the hardest award to predict because I’m not sure which rookie will be productive enough in their offense to merit the honor of Offensive Rookie of the Year. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza is starting the season on the bench, running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are splitting carries in their backfields, and most of the receivers drafted this year aren’t slated to be the number one options in their offenses. And this award became even more difficult to predict after 49ers receiver De’Zhaun Stribling left Thursday night’s game against the Rams in Australia with a non-contact injury.
The one receiver with a clear pathway to winning the award is Tate. Tennessee needs him to play well in order to have a functional passing game. There are few other quality receiving options for the Titans outside of Tate, and if the Titans find themselves playing catch-up, Cam Ward could funnel plenty of targets his way.
Watch list: Jeremiyah Love, Fernando Mendoza, Jadarian Price, Ja’Kobi Lane
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Edge Rueben Bain Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bain had the best college production of any edge rusher in his draft class, and he probably would’ve been my prediction for this award no matter where he landed. But he should really shine in Tampa. The Bucs front seven has enough talent to draw attention away from Bain, leaving him free to tear off the edge in one-on-one matchups. Former Rams edge rusher Jared Verse won the award with just 4.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 2024—that’s an attainable stat line for Bain.
Watch list: Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Mansoor Delane, David Bailey
Comeback Player of the Year: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
This is a layup for Mahomes, who had surgery to repair a torn ACL in mid-December. After an impressive (and rapid) recovery, he’s set to start Week 1. The Chiefs absolutely need Mahomes to be a superhero to carry this offense, and we should expect him to be productive as both a passer and scrambler. Unless Aaron Donald puts up 15 sacks this season after a two-year layoff (and I suppose we shouldn’t rule that out), Mahomes can start drafting his acceptance speech now.
Watch list: Aaron Donald, Jayden Daniels, Micah Parsons, Malik Nabers
Coach of the Year: Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens
If we’re looking at the recent history of this award, the implied criteria for winning Coach of the Year are as follows: take a team from bad to good, make the playoffs, and get more production out of your quarterback than expected. That’s the formula that worked for Mike Vrabel, Kevin O’Connell, Kevin Stefanski, and Brian Daboll.
It will be hard for two-time MVP Lamar Jackson to outperform expectations. But it’ll help Minter’s case that Jackson is coming off a down year in which he missed time with injuries, and voters will be looking at a now healthy QB in a new offense designed to maximize his skills. But where Minter can really shine is as a defensive play caller. If Baltimore’s defense is significantly better and the Ravens get into Super Bowl contention because of it, that would make Minter the clear favorite.
Watch list: Brian Schottenheimer, Kevin O’Connell, Ben Johnson, Dan Campbell
Assistant Coach of the Year: Mike McDaniel, Los Angeles Chargers
This is another one that feels too easy to predict. Mike McDaniel is already a known commodity as a schemer and play caller—and he’s probably overqualified as an offensive coordinator. McDaniel will probably get the credit for any improvement in production from quarterback Justin Herbert. Add in the potential improvement to Los Angeles’s run game—which would totally be a by-product of his play calling and game-planning—and McDaniel has all the necessary ingredients to run away with this award. Now all he needs is for his offensive line group to stay healthy.
Watch list: Kelvin Sheppard, Christian Parker, Sean Mannion, Declan Doyle
Protector of the Year: Offensive Tackle Joe Alt, Los Angeles Chargers
I expect the Chargers offensive line to benefit just as much from McDaniel’s new scheme as Herbert will. The Chargers’ run game will be totally different from how it operated under former coordinator Greg Roman, and the structure of the passing game will be built around getting the ball out quickly.
That’s great news for talented right tackle Joe Alt, who spent training camp doing things like this:
The former first-round pick was already great in pass protection, and now he’ll be playing in a system designed to get him on the move as a run blocker.
Watch list: Penei Sewell, Tristan Wirfs, Garrett Bolles, Darnell Wright
