Super Bowl LX is just days away from kicking off, and The Ringer has been on-site in the Bay Area to cover the final matchup of the season, between the Patriots and Seahawks.
Instead of focusing on quarterbacks Drake Maye and Sam Darnold, let’s preview this game by looking at the matchups between other players, coaches, and situations that could swing the outcome.
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. New England’s Secondary
Seattle’s best overall player is receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and I expect he’ll be the player utilized best this Sunday. He’s the overwhelming betting favorite to be Offensive Player of the Year, and he led the league with 1,793 regular-season receiving yards.
Smith-Njigba is the engine behind Seattle’s explosive offense, and coordinator Klint Kubiak maximizes his talent by flipping conventional football wisdom on its head. Instead of spreading the field with as many receiving options as possible and trying to find the right one-on-one matchup to attack, Kubiak puts tight ends and fullbacks on the field to force defenses into simple and predictable coverages. In the regular season, the Seahawks averaged 9.3 dropbacks per game against base defenses, the fourth most in the league, and saw zone coverage on 83 percent of those snaps, which made the game easy for Darnold and Smith-Njigba. You’ll see in the clip below how much space there is for these two to connect in the middle of the field, as underneath defenders are pulled farther away from their coverage responsibilities out of respect for Seattle’s run game.
New England doesn’t play as much zone coverage in its base defense as the rest of the league; with a 71 percent mark in the regular season, New England was 4 percentage points below the league average. But that’s still high enough for the Seahawks to find easy opportunities through the air—and it’s a concern for the Patriots because of their struggles in coverage out of base personnel. New England ranked in the bottom 10 in passing success rate when it played zone coverage in base personnel and allowed a 75 percent completion rate. If the Patriots are giving up easy looks to Smith-Njigba early in the game, we may see this defense decide it’d rather sell out on playing man coverage.
2. Nick Emmanwori vs. Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry
Seahawks rookie defensive back Nick Emmanwori has quickly become one of the best slot defenders in the league, and he is fresh off an excellent performance in the NFC championship game. His versatility is a major reason why the Seahawks defense is one of the league’s best. And now he’s a significant question mark heading into the Super Bowl.
Emmanwori reportedly left practice early on Wednesday with what head coach Mike Macdonald described in a pool report as an ankle injury. “We’ll kind of go from here and figure out what are the next steps,” Macdonald said.
If Emmanwori can play Sunday, he’ll be Seattle’s answer to stopping the most potent part of New England’s passing game: Maye’s throws to receivers in the slot. Against a Patriots offense that wants to throw the ball to tight end Hunter Henry and receiver Stefon Diggs—who had 83 combined targets in the slot in the regular season—Emmanwori’s play will probably be the deciding factor in how effective New England's offense is through the air.
One of the best examples of his dominance in coverage came against Rams receiver Puka Nacua. Emmanwori flashed his length and closing speed, breaking up what should’ve been an easy completion on a quick out route. Those kinds of underneath routes have been Diggs’s specialty, as he’s averaged under 5 air yards per target in New England’s offense this postseason. If he’s running routes against Emmanwori like Nacua did in the clip below, he’ll need perfect ball placement from Maye.
Emmanwori's next-best play in that game came in man coverage against receiver Davante Adams, when he broke up an in-breaking route inside the red zone. In the clip below, Emmanwori gets away with a bit of a grab, but he was clearly the better athlete in that matchup and perfectly executed his technique to swat the ball away. These are the kinds of routes he’ll see from Henry up the seam, pushing up the field vertically before breaking across the middle.
Watching Emmanwori in coverage is a key subplot in this Super Bowl. Just last year, we saw slot cornerback Cooper DeJean return an interception in Super Bowl LIX for a touchdown, kicking off Philadelphia’s rout of Kansas City. Emmanwori should be close to the ball several times on Sunday, and I’m excited to see whether he can have a similar game-altering impact.
3. Will Campbell vs. Seattle’s Pass Rush
Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell is talented, but he’s gone through a gauntlet of pass rushers this postseason and struggled to keep up.
He’s allowed 11 pressures and three sacks in the playoffs; both of those marks are the highest in the league. Denver’s Nik Bonitto, Houston’s Will Anderson Jr., and the Chargers’ rotation of edge rushers had no problem running by him in January. Now he’ll be facing off against one of the deepest defensive lines in the league. Patriots fans have to be concerned about whether New England’s offense can stay afloat if Campbell has another rough outing.
Seattle forced two strip sacks, nine total quarterback hits, and three throwaways in just two playoff games. There will be no margin for error for Campbell (or right tackle Morgan Moses) against Seattle edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence, Derick Hall, and Boye Mafe.
4. Kenneth Walker III vs. New England’s Front
Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III’s potential impact on Super Bowl LX is tied to the effectiveness of Smith-Njigba and Darnold. If the Patriots are in base personnel to match up in size with Seattle’s tight ends and play man coverage to deny easy throws, there’ll be opportunities for Walker to get out on the perimeter and break a few big runs.
The Patriots defense has been middle of the pack against outside runs this season. Per Next Gen Stats, the Patriots allowed 4.6 yards per carry on off-tackle runs in the regular season, ranking 14th in the NFL. And if you consider how light New England’s schedule was, it paints a more troubling picture for this defense.
In their three combined games against Buffalo and Baltimore, the Patriots gave up 457 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns—and allowed an average of 2 yards before contact. Those opponents found success attacking this defense on its edges, as Ravens running back Derrick Henry does below.
Walker isn’t Henry, but that kind of outside zone run is a foundational piece of the Seahawks offense, especially in the heavier personnel groupings we’ve been discussing. You see it against the 49ers in the clip below, where Seattle gets multiple blockers on the edge to stretch San Francisco’s defense horizontally.
New England’s defense can be exploited by all the things the Seahawks offense does best. I’ll have my eyes trained on how well this defensive front holds up against Walker and this run game, especially if the Patriots sell out to slow down Smith-Njigba out on the perimeter.
5. New England’s Pass Rush vs. Seattle’s Offensive Line
The problems Seattle’s offense can cause don’t make Sunday a hopeless matchup for New England, but its defense will need an equalizer to keep the Seahawks from totally dictating the terms.
That has to be its pass rush, led by defensive tackle Milton Williams and edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson. The two have combined for 35 pressures and five sacks this postseason, totally wrecking Los Angeles’s and Houston’s offensive lines on the way to the Super Bowl.
There’ll be a fascinating matchup between this defensive front and Seattle’s pass protectors, because Kubiak’s system is designed to keep his quarterbacks totally out of harm’s way. The Seahawks have allowed only 1.29 sacks per game this season, the third-lowest mark in football. New England’s red-hot pass rush will have to play its best game of the year against Seattle. Otherwise, I’d expect Kubiak and Darnold to operate this offense with ease throughout Sunday’s action.
6. Jay Harbaugh and Rashid Shaheed vs. Jeremy Springer and Marcus Jones
While I’m a coach and can go a little wild over well-executed special teams play, I understand that most people are refilling cups and grabbing wings while kicks are taking place.
If you don’t listen to anything else I say, heed my words on this: You won’t want to miss a moment when these teams are returning kicks. Seahawks receiver Rashid Shaheed and Patriots defensive back Marcus Jones are the best in the sport when it comes to returning kicks, and their value is boosted by playing for great special teams coaches.
Austin Gayle, my colleague at The Ringer, wrote a primer on the schematic creativity that comes with the dynamic kickoff, and Seattle special teams coordinator Jay Harbaugh maximizes that. In the clip below, Shaheed returns a kick 100 yards for a score, and it’s set up by a blocking scheme that has a frontline blocker work opposite the initial flow of the return. Because the backside defenders are sealed off and the flow of the return looks like it’s designed to run along the sideline, there’s a natural misdirection element that resembles a “trap” or “cross buck” running play, two old staples of wishbone and single-wing offenses.
As for Jones and New England special teams coach Jeremy Springer, their best punt returns resemble man blocking schemes. In this touchdown return against the Giants, the blocks are set up like a pin-and-pull play, another old-school blocking scheme. New England builds a wall along the sideline, and there’s nobody left to tackle Jones but the punter. My favorite thing to watch is the technique New England executes on its blocks. You don’t see the dramatic and dangerous peel-back blocks on defenseless players—just a scheme perfectly set up to break a special playmaker free.
It’s entirely possible that these two teams will avoid each other’s return men all game on Sunday, but I think we’ll see a few opportunities for both teams’ return groups to make their mark on the game, and that could be what swings the final result.
7. New England’s Offense vs. Super Bowl LX’s Game Flow
Now’s not the time to revisit New England’s strength of schedule or relitigate how deserving the Patriots are of a Super Bowl berth, but there’s one thing we haven’t learned much about when it comes to New England, and that’s how it plays when it’s chasing points.
Including the postseason, the Patriots had just 39 offensive snaps when trailing by more than eight points. For context, the league average this season was 221, and the average among playoff teams was 148. There have been only four teams in the past decade to finish a season with fewer than 50: the 2015 Patriots, the 2019 49ers, the 2023 Ravens, and the 2025 Pats. That 49ers team went to the Super Bowl, while the 2015 Patriots and 2023 Ravens both fell short in the AFC championship game (both against stellar opponents).
With all respect due to New England’s journey to this game, I don’t think this Patriots team matches up at all with the aforementioned teams. My instincts tell me Seattle has the talent to control the game on Sunday, and Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has to manage possessions to avoid that happening.
That means New England will have to sit on the ball, play the field-position game, and avoid turnovers at all costs—and that’s precisely how McDaniels has been approaching the playoffs. No team this postseason averaged more runs on first and second downs than the Patriots (at 28.7 per game), and that included the woefully predictable Eagles. Those early-down runs will keep the clock rolling and put pressure on Seattle to score on every possession. If the Patriots aren’t turning the ball over, this game will feel like it’s flying by due to the handoffs.
8. Carlton Davis III vs. the Officials
Patriots cornerback Carlton Davis III is one of the better defensive backs in the league, with the physicality and ball skills to disrupt any receiver. But if Darnold sees him matched up with Smith-Njigba or Shaheed without any help over the top, I expect we’ll see Darnold take some deep chances against him. Davis leads the playoffs in defensive pass interference calls, with three, and has cost his defense 63 yards on those calls. A double move is almost certainly coming against Davis, and he’ll have to be his most disciplined to avoid being called for another backbreaking penalty.
If he does get penalized, he’d better perform like he did against the Texans to even things out.
9. AJ Barner vs. New England’s Linebackers
We’re not done going down the rabbit hole of how New England’s choices on defense might decide the outcome of Sunday’s game. Even if we paint the best-case scenario—the Patriots lock down Smith-Njigba with man coverage without giving up big runs to Walker—we still have to consider matchups elsewhere on the field. Seattle’s tight ends against New England’s linebackers is an important one to highlight, and it’s the kind of small-sample situation that can tilt the game in either team’s favor.
Tight end AJ Barner is a huge target who can help Seattle find chunk gains. If New England is playing man on a regular basis, expect at least a couple of jump-ball targets to the 6-foot-6 Barner, and if he’s matched up against the wrong Patriots tight end, it could spell the same trouble it did for the Cardinals in the clip below.
New England obviously has a better defense than Arizona does, but its linebackers aren’t exactly coverage specialists. The best person for the Patriots to match up against Barner is probably Robert Spillane, who still gives up about 5 inches and is not a guarantee to play Sunday because of an ankle injury. If he can’t go, New England won’t have a matchup it’s comfortable with, and that’ll leave the defense crossing its fingers that Kubiak’s play calling doesn’t exploit its weaknesses.
10. TreVeyon Henderson vs. His Own Coaching Staff
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson was one of the most explosive players coming out of college football last year, and I had hopes that he would add a dynamic element to New England’s offense that would be a major factor against elite competition.
In the playoffs, though, the exact opposite has been true. After a healthy workload in the wild-card and divisional rounds, Henderson was mostly nonexistent against the Broncos in the AFC championship game, and I’m left wondering whether he’ll be trusted enough to make a legitimate impact in Super Bowl LX.
His tape this postseason has been disappointing; he’s missed opportunities for easy yards between the tackles and gone down on first contact far too often. While I believe he’s been a bit miscast in this offense lately (asked to find yards in tight spaces, which has never been a major strength of his), the combination of uninspiring runs and shoddy pass protection has cost him reps and kept a badly needed speed threat out of the lineup for New England.
11. Kyle Williams vs. Seattle’s Secondary
With how good Seattle’s defensive secondary is and how uneven New England’s passing game has been in the playoffs, we might get only one or two chances to see Patriots receiver Kyle Williams break out on Sunday. Williams has only one reception on four targets this postseason, gaining a paltry 7 yards.
But if the Patriots want to win this game, they absolutely need their speedster to create offense in the open field, and McDaniels has to manufacture those opportunities. Williams’s 72-yard score against Tampa Bay this season flashed how easily he can pull away from chasing defenders. On a crossing route in the clip below, Williams hits a gear that New England hasn’t fully maximized in its offense.
Maye missed him on downfield throws earlier in the postseason, but I think there’ll be confidence and trust in him against one-on-one coverages. In the clip below against Houston, Williams has a chance against cornerback Kamari Lassiter, and if he gets a free release like that in the Super Bowl, it could change the game.
12. Klint Kubiak vs. Fan Superstition and Bad Vibes
This 12th one isn’t a real concern in my mind, but I figured I would acknowledge a little fan superstition for any Seahawks fans reading this.
Several NFL fans have been in these shoes before, with a hotshot offensive coordinator presumably becoming a head coach the moment the Super Bowl ends. Every time a play doesn’t work, the irrational part of your fandom is going to blame Kubiak’s interviews with the Raiders. If the team goes cold for a quarter, it's because he didn’t get to spend extra time ironing out the kinks of his game plan.
It isn’t helped by some of the heartbreak suffered by his coaching-tree predecessors, either. In 1987, the Broncos and then–offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan were blown out by Washington in Super Bowl XXII as Shanahan was heading out the door to take the Raiders job. Current 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s last game before taking over in San Francisco was the infamous 28-3 comeback by the Patriots in Super Bowl LI, when he was working with the Falcons. Klint’s own father, Gary Kubiak, didn’t blow a Super Bowl before taking the Texans job, but Denver was dominated by the Steelers in a home playoff game in 2006 despite having one of the best teams in the league. Klint Kubiak can’t possibly wash away the losses of decades past, but the wrong result here would make him the next member of this coaching tree to fall flat just as he became one of the hottest names in football.
Add in the bad vibes from Super Bowl XLIX that Seahawks fans have been fighting against for the past two weeks, and it leaves Kubiak holding the fragile hearts of Seattle in his hands. And while I don’t believe in momentum in sports, there are times in life when bad shit begets more bad shit. Kubiak better call a hell of a game on Sunday, and we better not see him get cute anywhere near the goal line.
