The NFL’s quest to own not just Sunday, but every day of the week, becomes even more obvious once the calendar reaches Week 16. Even though the first round of the College Football Playoff features a Saturday triple-header, that will not stop the NFL from trying to steal the spotlight with a double-header of its own—Eagles vs. Commanders and Bears vs. Packers.
Fortunately for us football lovers, we’re blessed with two of the most important games on the schedule on Thursday and Saturday. On Thursday, the Rams will visit the Seahawks in a game that is highly likely to decide the no. 1 seed in the NFC, and on Saturday, the Bears-Packers rematch will likely determine the NFC North champion. Add in the first of two NFC South battles between Tampa Bay and Carolina this week, and there’s plenty of high-leverage football to kick off the festive holiday period.
Here are my thoughts on the entire Week 16 slate, including my favorite five bets. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through 15 weeks, this column is 57-57-1 overall and 35-40 on the Favorite Five.
Philadelphia Eagles (–6.5) at Washington Commanders
The Eagles finally had their “get right” game at home in a dominant shutout win against the Raiders on Sunday. While their passing game was executed well for the first time since Week 8, their run game continues to underperform against expectations. Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby finished the game with 3.5 and 3.4 yards per carry, respectively. Philadelphia currently has its worst EPA per rush metrics in any of the five years that Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts have been together.
Without an effective running game, the passing game remains too unreliable from week to week for me to trust the team as a significant road favorite. Lest we forget, the Eagles pass offense ranks below average in success rate, too.
Marcus Mariota has been considerably more efficient than Jayden Daniels for the Commanders offense this season. Mariota ranks 14th out of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps in EPA and completion percentage of expected composite, while Daniels is 30th. I’m not here to say that Mariota is better than Daniels, but he has been significantly more effective as the signal caller in 2025.
The best way to take advantage of the Commanders defense is by stressing the middle of the field, where the linebackers struggle in coverage. The Eagles, though, have not been willing to attack there consistently.
Verdict: Bet Washington +6.5 (–110)
Green Bay Packers (–1.5) at Chicago Bears
The Packers are now without their best pass rusher, best run stopper, and potentially one of their two crucial safeties now that Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt are out and Evan Williams is questionable.
These two teams played two weeks ago at Lambeau, where Bears coach Ben Johnson tried to unleash Caleb Williams through the air early in the game. It backfired, and Chicago had three punts and 5 total yards on its opening three possessions. Chicago then committed to the run and found a lot more success in the second half. That could be an avenue for success again this week, but the pass game should also open up given that the Packers lack a quality second rusher without Parsons.
A healthier roster may give the Bears an edge in this second meeting, but their defense is still prone to giving up big plays, which Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love took advantage of two weeks ago. With Packers receiver Christian Watson potentially playing as well, this game profiles as another high-scoring affair, just like last time.
Verdict: Bet over 46.5 (–110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (–3)
The Broncos have been an underdog five times this season, and they’ve won four of those games, including the come-from-behind win against Green Bay last week. It was one of the best all-around games Bo Nix has had as the Broncos quarterback, but a lot of Denver’s success did come following multiple key injuries to Green Bay’s defense. The problem I have is trusting Denver to win by margin. When the Broncos have been favored by at least three points this season, they are just 2-6 against the spread.
Denver’s offense operates best when it's able to run the ball and stay ahead of the chains. It doesn’t have a lot of negative plays because Nix rarely takes sacks. The problem with this matchup is that the Jaguars have an excellent run defense that’s top five in rush success rate allowed. Denver will hit on some big plays, as it always does, but the offense may be stop-and-start as a result of its inconsistent running.
On the other side of the matchup, the trade deadline addition of Jaguars receiver Jakobi Meyers matters a ton. You can’t throw at Broncos CB Patrick Surtain’s side of the field, so having a second quality receiver is paramount. The Jaguars are a good bet to win this game, and I’ll take the three points and continue to fade Denver as a favorite.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars +3 (–110)
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (–2.5)
Based on the lines from the past two Patriots games, it’s clear that the market still has doubts about how good New England really is. The Patriots closed +2.5 at home against Buffalo and lost, and now, even though it’s 11-3, New England is a road underdog against 7-7 Baltimore. The Patriots don’t really need this game, as they just need to win their final two games of the season against the floundering Dolphins and Jets to clinch the AFC East title. But this is another excellent measuring-stick game to help us figure out the real quality of New England’s defense. After taking a 21-0 lead, the Patriots allowed touchdowns on five consecutive possessions last week, and the linebackers especially struggled to cover the middle of the field. The defense is 26th in overall DVOA. If they’re struggling to cover backs and tight ends, then Baltimore could be a terrible matchup.
The Ravens still aren’t generating much of a pass rush, which hurt them two weeks ago against Pittsburgh—Aaron Rodgers had plenty of time to throw downfield and torch them. Still, with this line under three points, I’m trusting Baltimore at home in a high-leverage spot against the weak Pats defense.
Verdict: Bet Baltimore –2.5 (–120)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-7)
Since starting 4-1, the Lions have alternated wins and losses every single week. On the one hand, they’re still maintaining their streak of not losing two in a row under Dan Campbell since 2022. On the other hand, they’re trying to make the playoffs and need to run the table to have any realistic chance of returning there.
The biggest statistical mismatch in this game is the Lions’ explosive offense against the Pittsburgh defense, which has seriously struggled to prevent big plays. The Lions are second in explosive play rate this season, and they’ve featured running back Jahmyr Gibbs, their best player, even more since Campbell became play caller midway through the season. The Steelers are traveling after a short week, and while Monday night’s win was a breeze for them, they’re pulling up with a defense that ranks 23rd in explosive play rate allowed. PFF also grades their tackling unit as below average.
The Lions will get their big plays off and score. The question is whether or not Aaron Rodgers can keep up.
Verdict: Bet Lions team total over 29.5 (–120)
Thursday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams offense vs. the Seahawks defense will be one of the biggest strength-on-strength matchups we’ve seen this season. The Rams have scored 40-plus points and totaled 500-plus yards in each of their last two games, and the Seattle defense is allowing the fourth-fewest points per drive in the league. The Rams will likely be without Davante Adams, who has been unstoppable in the red zone and leads all receivers in touchdowns. This will make them a bit more predictable and far more likely to lean on heavier offensive sets. Seattle is well equipped to handle those sets, which it proved in the teams’ first meeting this season, when Seattle conceded just 12 first downs to L.A. According to the forecast, the defenses will also get the added benefit of rainy conditions and high winds.
The counterpoint to Seattle’s matchup advantage is two words: Sam Darnold. Can you trust him in a big spot? Dating back to last season, we’ve seen Darnold struggle with sacks and interceptions in each of his past three high-leverage prime-time games—two of which came against the Rams in the playoffs and in Week 11. I can imagine no worse feeling than betting Darnold here and then seeing him get that look in his eyes early on in the game. You know the look. I’ve been a Seahawks backer all year, but I’ll stick with the under in this ugly bad-weather game instead.
Verdict: Bet under 42.5 (–110)
The Rest of the Slate
Buffalo Bills (–10.5) at Cleveland Browns
Shedeur Sanders ranks 44th out of 44 quarterbacks in EPA and CPOE composite among players with at least 100 snaps. The Browns offensive line has also been decimated by injury; they may not even be able to run Quinshon Judkins. On the surface, because the Bills give up so many explosive plays, the should be able to break a couple of long runs. But the Browns offensive line was so bad last week in Chicago. Judkins ran the ball 12 times for 21 yards against the average Bears run defense.
At home, Cleveland’s defense is usually good enough to warrant looking at the squad as an underdog, but there are better ways to risk U.S. currency than wagering on the eliminated and very injured Browns in late December.
Verdict: Pass
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (–2.5)
The key crux of this matchup is whether the zone-heavy Chargers defense can force Dak Prescott to make a throw or two into tight windows and produce a turnover to swing the game. Prescott loves to aggressively push the ball downfield, and the Chargers exploit quarterbacks who aren’t patient about methodically moving the ball.
The other key is whether or not the Cowboys defense can step up after the loss of top run stopper Quinnen Williams. Williams, who is in concussion protocol, has been a crucial linchpin of Dallas’s improved run defense since the trade deadline. The Cowboys have not technically been eliminated from playoff contention, but they could be by the time this game kicks off on Sunday if the Eagles beat the Commanders the day before. The market has really soured on the Chargers due to their offensive line injuries, yet they’ve pulled off consecutive upsets against both the Eagles and Chiefs in the past month. This time, they find themselves as the underdog yet again.
Verdict: Pass
Cincinnati Bengals (–4.5) at Miami Dolphins
Both of these defenses are in the bottom seven in the NFL in explosive play rate allowed, which suggests that this game could be one of those end-of-season classics in which neither has much to play for, and midway through the third quarter you look up and the score is 20-20. However, it’s reasonable to expect that Miami will really lean extra on the run game this week.
The Dolphins timed their decision to bench Tua Tagovailoa and start Quinn Ewers well; as a starting NFL quarterback, you won’t find a better on-ramp to success than a home game against the Bengals defense.
Miami should be able to move the ball consistently on the ground if it commits to it. Cincinnati is 29th in EPA per rush allowed, and for that reason, the Dolphins should probably be a slight home favorite. With that being said, teams that get shut out, as the Bengals did last week, have gone 5-0 against the spread in the following week since 2015, and I do think that there’s some signal in that small-sample trend.
Verdict: Lean Dolphins +1.5
Kansas City Chiefs (–3) at Tennessee Titans
Patrick Mahomes is out for the season, Rashee Rice is in concussion protocol, and the Chiefs are playing meaningless football for their last three games, so it’s difficult to say which version of Kansas City we’ll see on Sunday. The market has bounced back and forth between Chiefs –3 and –3.5 all week, but I’m not very interested in getting involved in this game.
Verdict: Consider Titans at +3.5
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Anytime a defense gets embarrassed in consecutive weeks, it’s human nature to want to continue betting against it. The Jets allowed 82 points to the Dolphins and Jaguars, and it really could have been more.
As is always true in betting (and in life), if something seems a little too easy, it usually is. I like Tyler Shough and think that the Saints have been consistently underrated since he took over as quarterback. But with this line now ballooning up to –4.5, they’re certainly not underrated anymore.
Verdict: Pass
Minnesota Vikings (–2.5) at New York Giants
Jaxson Dart’s first year in the NFL has been quite the roller-coaster ride, and it’s always a risk betting on him since he’ll probably be making his weekly trip into the blue tent for a concussion check in every game. However, Dart has excelled when blitzed this year. Six of his 10 starts have been above average in EPA against the blitz. That’s usually a key predictor of success when facing a Brian Flores defense.
Each time this line has moved to Minnesota –3 in recent days, there’s been immediate, sharp buyback on the Giants to push it back to 2.5. If the line is at 3, I’d bet the Giants on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Giants at +3 or better
Atlanta Falcons (–2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Instead of asking who'll win this game, we should be looking at which coach has a better chance of surviving after their teams' disastrous seasons.
The Falcons embraced the spoiler role against the Buccaneers last Thursday and pulled off a heroic comeback, and they’re now entering this game with extra rest.
Since Week 12, when Kirk Cousins became the starter following Michael Penix Jr.’s injury, Atlanta’s offense has ranked 17th in EPA per play, one spot behind the Cardinals, who have inflated their offensive metrics in garbage time during blowout losses.
Like the Miami game, this has all the makings of a classic late-season high-scoring matchup.
Verdict: Lean over 47.5 (–110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans (–14.5)
I think that this line is entirely too high, and from a buy-low and sell-high perspective, the number tells me I should probably bet the Raiders. As I said earlier for Cincinnati, teams that get shut out do traditionally cover the ensuing week. But it’s December, and I’m tired after two consecutive weeks of betting on the Raiders and then watching them produce next to zero offense. Personally, I’m no longer willing to tolerate that pain and suffering. But this week, it’d still be reasonable if you are.
Verdict: Lean Raiders +14.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–3) at Carolina Panthers
The Buccaneers’ free fall after their 5-1 start came all the way back down to earth on national television last week with their late-game collapse against the Falcons, which left Todd Bowles shouting expletives in his press conference. The Panthers' meltdown on the road against New Orleans wasn’t much better, and now we’re left with two 7-7 teams that are fighting for the division title and a chance of a home playoff game.
The Panthers’ offensive success hinges on their ability to run the ball on early downs, which makes the Buccaneers a bad matchup on paper. Tampa Bay is in the top three in the NFL in rush success rate allowed, which could leave the Panthers in more obvious passing situations than they’d prefer. Carolina is 25th in EPA per dropback on third or fourth down and 6-plus yards.
The main difference between these two teams is their ability to hit explosive plays. Now that Bucs receiver Mike Evans is healthy, Tampa’s offense should start to look more like it did early on in the season. Is that enough to lay three points on the road, though? I would say probably not.
Verdict: Lean Tampa Bay –3 (–110)
San Francisco 49ers (–6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Last week, the state of the game allowed Indianapolis to stay competitive until the end. It was able to control the clock and field position very effectively. The Colts were never truly in a position where they needed to unleash 44-year-old Philip Rivers and drop him back in clear passing situations. But like everyone else, I do wonder about the longevity of this bold Rivers plan now that Niners defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has new film to study.
San Francisco’s offense has ranked in the top five in EPA per play in the second half of the season, and the Colts defense remains relatively injured and struggles to cover the middle of the field. I would not feel comfortable betting the Colts at all if they’re forced to come from behind.
Verdict: Lean 49ers –6.5 (–110)
The Favorite Five
Commanders +6.5 (–110)
Packers-Bears over 46.5 (–110)
Ravens –2.5 (–120)
Jaguars +3 (–110)
Lions team total over 29.5 (–120)
Other Bets
Rams-Seahawks under 42.5 (–110)
Waiting for Giants +3
