Welcome to Statue Season! Each week leading up to the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, we’ll be checking in on the closest races, the winningest narratives, and the plain old movie magic that will decide who’s taking home the gold on March 15, 2026. This week, we’re updating our Best Picture tier list after the Golden Globes nominations (and some early awards circuit prizes) were announced.
We finally have some actual information we can base Oscar predictions on! Instead of perusing tweets and Gold Derby odds, we now have some early returns from the awards circuit and a full slate of Golden Globes nominations to work from. Is Wicked: For Good actually cooked? Can anyone challenge One Battle After Another? Are both Richard Linklater films in the mix? We’re a bit closer to knowing (or at least guessing semi-accurately).
That said, the Golden Globes aren’t necessarily the best predictor of the Oscars. Both recipients of last year’s top prizes—The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez—ultimately fell short for Best Picture, and the Golden Globes voting body is made up of almost 400 people, while the Academy has more than 10,000 members. But if we combine those nominations with the results from the National Board of Review, the Gotham Awards, and the New York Film Critics Circle Awards (plus the Critics’ Choice Awards nominations), we can start to get a sense of what Oscar nods might look like when they’re announced on January 22. There are still some wild cards in play—is the Academy ready for a third trip to Pandora?—but this is a good time to reassess where the Best Picture race currently stands.
One of These Will Win Best Picture …
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
These have been the clear top three since we even started thinking about the 2026 Oscars, and that still hasn’t changed. These three films all took wildly different paths to awards season: One Battle After Another is an auteur’s latest big, brash masterpiece that a lot of people saw, but it sparked discourse about profitability; Sinners is a beloved early-year box office phenomenon still riding a wave of unparalleled success; Hamnet is a tragic period piece that’s making people cry and collecting trophies on the way, just as it was designed in a lab to do. Yet it’s easy to see how all three paths could lead to the Best Picture statuette.
As for who’s in first place at the moment—it’s really tough, but I’m sticking with One Battle. It racked up the most Golden Globe nominations (nine) and has already picked up the top prizes from the National Board of Review and the Gotham Awards, as well as both the Los Angeles and New York film critics awards. I’ve had Hamnet in second place for the past couple of months, but, at this moment, I’d slot Sinners ahead of it. Granted, part of my reasoning for that is vibes based—something shifted after Hamnet marketed itself as “the best film ever made”—but the early returns also do indicate that Sinners has a slight edge over Chloé Zhao’s film. Sinners is the most nominated movie at the Critics’ Choice Awards (17 nods), over both One Battle and Hamnet, and it received more nominations than Hamnet at the Golden Globes as well. Ryan Coogler’s film has also taken home awards for its screenplay (NBR), cinematography (NYFCC), and supporting actress (a surprising win for Wunmi Mosaku, who plays Annie, at the Gothams). Hamnet did take home a slew of prizes on the festival circuit (and let’s keep in mind just how much Hamnet plays to the Academy’s sensibilities), but that has yet to translate into anything significant in the awards campaign thus far. If anything can take a bite out of One Battle’s Best Picture chances at this stage, it’s Sinners.
Statue Season
… Unless One of These Wins Best Picture
Marty Supreme
It Was Just an Accident
OK, I know I just said that there is a clear top three for Best Picture, but what if maybe there’s actually a top five? Marty Supreme hasn’t come out yet, but it’s got a ton of momentum thanks to all the advance critical acclaim and Timothée Chalamet begging for an Oscar at every opportunity he gets. It didn’t get a ton of attention from the Golden Globes—just Best Motion Picture and Best Actor in the musical/comedy categories (R.I.P. Kevin O’Leary’s Oscar campaign), as well as Best Screenplay—but I think Marty Supreme’s performance at the Oscars will hinge on the Academy’s perception of Chalamet. Since he has two Oscar nominations already under his belt, could the Academy be ready to anoint him as one of the greats? Or will it leave him to grovel for another year? Director Josh Safdie doesn’t have a great track record at the Oscars—here’s your unfortunate reminder that Uncut Gems was completely shut out of the 2020 ceremony—but Chalamet’s stock could be high enough to elevate Marty Supreme as a whole.
It Was Just an Accident is my dark-horse pick to shake up the Academy Awards in March. It’s an electric, politically charged film with a fantastic premise made by a master filmmaker who’s long overdue for recognition by the Academy. Winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes, as It Was Just an Accident did back in May, has been a huge résumé booster at the Oscars in recent years. But also, director Jafar Panahi has quite a strong shot at Best Director—that category has been considered Paul Thomas Anderson’s to lose ever since One Battle came out, but after Panahi won the Gotham and the NYFCC Award and nabbed a Golden Globe nomination, PTA’s victory is far from a sure thing. Don’t be surprised if It Was Just an Accident surges over the next few months.
Guaranteed a Nomination, but Won’t Win
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
My way-too-early Best Picture prediction at the height of summer festival season would have been Sentimental Value. After Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World landed a couple of nods at the 2022 ceremony and Renate Reinsve turned in excellent work in last year’s A Different Man, I figured that the Academy would be ready to shower them both with awards this time around. Now that some time has passed, however, I really don’t think Sentimental Value can win Best Picture. It’s well reviewed and well acted, sure, but it’s also a quiet, intimate film that’s not built on big moments the way the five films I’ve placed ahead of it are. (Apologies to all the cinephiles who considered the Piano Teacher joke to be a big moment.) Plus, Neon could turn its campaign focus toward It Was Just an Accident if that does start to heat up. That said, at eight nods, Sentimental Value is the second-most nominated film at the Golden Globes (although the Globes can often be more favorable to non-American films than the Academy due to its international voting body), and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas’s case for Best Supporting Actress is strengthening after an NBR win and a couple of other nods. Sentimental Value isn’t completely out of the race, but I’d bet that it tops out at a Best Picture nomination.
Meanwhile, I continue to be baffled by Netflix’s awards campaign. I would not have guessed that Frankenstein would emerge as the streamer’s biggest Oscar player—some predicted that A House of Dynamite would be the Netflix original competing for the top prize come March (more on that later, but, boy, were they wrong). In hindsight, though, it’s kind of obvious why this happened—director Guillermo del Toro is an Oscar darling, and Jacob Elordi in monster drag has “first-time nominee” written all over it. But I feel confident in saying that Frankenstein’s Best Picture run won’t go past a nomination. And perhaps Netflix knows that, too—and opted to literally buy a studio to boost its next campaign.
Would Love to Just Be Included
Bugonia
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
Jay Kelly
No Other Choice
The last three spots to round out the Best Picture slate are still a toss-up. Train Dreams and Jay Kelly are both Netflix productions that sparked chatter online and are hoping to translate that discussion into some Oscar nominations. Bugonia is the latest outing from a director-actor pairing that’s often been an awards season favorite, but it underperformed at the box office. The Secret Agent, a Brazilian political thriller with strong visual flair, is sure to land a Best Actor nod for Wagner Moura, but it might not quite make the Best Picture cut. Park Chan-wook’s eventual Oscar coronation feels inevitable, but is No Other Choice the film that will get him there? Bugonia, The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice all landed Best Motion Picture nods from the Golden Globes (the Best Actor nomination for No Other Choice’s Lee Byung-hun was also a welcome surprise), but I actually see Train Dreams sneaking into the Oscars. I’m the last person to predict a double Netflix Best Picture slate, but the Joel Edgerton–led feature is an emotional, meditative film that’s really surged over the past month—earning recognition from the NBR, Gothams, and Critics’ Choice Awards. Plus, Edgerton is knocking on the door of a stacked Best Actor slate—the hype around the film might be enough to catapult it into one of those coveted 10 slots.
Wait, Are Neither of the Big-Budget Sequels Getting Nominated?
Wicked: For Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Is it actually happening? Is Wicked’s bonkers second act bad enough that it’s going to keep a musical that grossed $450 million out of the Best Picture lineup? The Golden Globes shockingly left the latest dispatch from Oz out of the Best Motion Picture—Musical or Comedy category, but I’m still not convinced we won’t see it make it into the Academy’s 10 come Oscar nominations day. For one, some of the films that got a Globes nod over Wicked: For Good appeal much more to the Golden Globes’ sensibilities than to the Academy’s sensibilities. (It’s no surprise that the Globes are chain-smoking whatever the French New Wave homage Nouvelle Vague is offering.) And Wicked’s momentum in other categories hasn’t really let up—Variety is still predicting that Ariana Grande will nab Best Supporting Actress and that the film will take home awards for costume design and sound. Wicked’s yellow brick road could still very much lead to a Best Picture nod.
As for Avatar: Fire and Ash, I’m less surprised that it was largely shut out of the Globes. It is a better movie than Wicked: For Good, but it’s the third movie in a franchise that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere—if the previous two installments didn’t result in Best Picture wins, then maybe the Academy will revoke Avatar’s status as an auto-nom to avoid repetition. It also hasn’t come out yet, and the Avatar films’ campaigns are often fueled by their box office performances (although that didn’t stop the Globes from handing it a nomination for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement—guess that shows how much thought is put into that category), but it’s hard to imagine financial returns high enough to convince the Academy on a franchise that’s already made billions. James Cameron’s cachet might be enough for Avatar to slot into the Best Picture slate once again, but there’s a strong possibility that it gets recognized only in the technical categories.
Directed by Richard Linklater
Blue Moon
Nouvelle Vague
The Gen X whisperer and king of talky dramedies put out two highly enjoyable, dialogue-heavy features set in the world of entertainment this year. Blue Moon is an incredible showcase for lead actor Ethan Hawke, who plays 1940s songwriter Lorenz Hart on the night that his old writing partner Richard Rodgers debuts Oklahoma! with a new collaborator: Oscar Hammerstein II. The hype around Hawke’s performance—for which he threw on a combover and somehow shrunk about a foot—has been on the up-and-up since the film released in mid-October and could easily shake up the Best Actor race. Nouvelle Vague, which depicts the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s masterpiece Breathless and is Linklater’s first film in French, hasn’t quite gotten the same buzz, but it could make some noise in a couple of categories. France is submitting It Was Just an Accident for Best International Feature, so it won’t get a nod there, but Variety currently predicts that it will get recognized in the new Best Casting category. Both films got Best Motion Picture—Musical or Comedy noms from the Golden Globes (again, over Wicked!). I wouldn’t count on Linklater getting the same attention from the Academy, but the Globes acknowledgment has certainly boosted both his films’ campaigns.
Would Be Nominated If the Academy Were Cooler
The Testament of Ann Lee
Sorry, Baby
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
It’s time to pay our respects to the Best Picture hopefuls you will undoubtedly see on your favorite critics’ year-end lists but that won’t actually make the leap into the final field. All three of these films got some attention from the Golden Globes (Eva Victor’s Best Actress nod for Sorry, Baby was wonderful to see) and will continue to pop up sporadically on the awards circuit. (Rose Byrne’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You campaign has gotten off to a hot start, with wins from the NBR and NYFCC.) In the end, however, these movies are all a little too left of center for the Academy. I’m still holding out hope for at least a Testament of Ann Lee musical performance during the ceremony.
Made Enough Money to Not Care About Oscars
KPop Demon Hunters
Weapons
Zootopia 2
F1
Remember when the Best Picture field was expanded from five to 10 and everyone thought that meant an animated film would make the cut every year? That happened in only the first two years of the expanded slate, when Up got a nod in 2009 and Toy Story 3 followed in 2010. Even as Zootopia 2 crushes at the box office and HUNTR/X continues blaring in every child’s home in America, it doesn’t look like an animated film will crack into the 10 this year, either. Weapons has built a strong campaign for Amy Madigan in the Best Supporting Actress race, and F1 will surely appear in a couple of technical categories, but neither will compete for the Academy’s top prize. Hopefully, hundreds of millions of dollars is enough to compensate for missing out on the statuette.
Do I Need to Watch These?
Rental Family
Nuremberg
Go to a mirror and say this out loud to yourself: You do not need to watch Rental Family or Nuremberg. You do not need to watch Rental Family or Nuremberg. You do not …
Absolutely Tanked out of Contention
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
A House of Dynamite
The Smashing Machine
Man, these were really some of the most spectacular awards campaign freefalls we’ve seen in a while. Jeremy Allen White and especially Dwayne Johnson were looking like inarguable locks for Best Actor a few months ago, and while they still landed Golden Globes nominations (which recognize 12 lead actors across drama and musical/comedy), their films flopped hard enough that it’s largely taken both of them out of the Oscar race. A House of Dynamite had some juice coming out of the Venice International Film Festival, but its ambiguous ending immediately angered viewers the moment it landed on Netflix. (The Pentagon wasn’t too happy about the whole endeavor, either.) The three films do offer a couple of lessons for future Best Picture hopefuls: One, make sure people are going to see your movie before you launch an Oscar campaign, and two, try not to piss off the U.S. government.
Ella McCay
Ella McCay
It’s the bad shoe heard round the world. If someone does the #EllaMcCayChallenge onstage at the Academy Awards, it will be a bigger win for cinema than any other award given out that night.
Stock Watch
To paraphrase one of cinema’s great stockbrokers: Nobody knows if an Oscar stock is going to go up, down, sideways, or in circles. In this section, we’ll evaluate who’s on the up-and-up and whose momentum is sputtering out as the competition across categories heats up.
Stock up: The Testament of Ann Lee’s Amanda Seyfried is looking to challenge a wide-open Best Actress field after landing Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe nominations. Arco is putting pressure on Zootopia 2 and KPop Demon Hunters in the Best Animated Feature category as it also collects nods from the Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Jay Kelly’s Adam Sandler may actually have a few more months of wearing suits ahead of him after notching a Best Supporting Actor nomination from the Globes.
Stock down: Gold Derby saw Cynthia Erivo’s Best Actress odds drop dramatically after Wicked: For Good’s not-so-good showing in the Globes’ nomination slate. Benoit Blanc has a new mystery to solve: why Wake Up Dead Man didn’t garner a single Globes nod. Marty Supreme’s Gwyneth Paltrow might be heading back to Goop after also missing out on Globes recognition.
