Welcome to Statue Season! Each week leading up to the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, we’ll be checking in on the closest races, the winningest narratives, and the plain old movie magic that will decide who’s taking home the gold on March 15, 2026. This week, we’re analyzing what constitutes a true Oscar-bait film.
Alert your grandparents and stock up on tissues: We have a certified weepy in our movie theaters. And I don’t just mean any regular old sad movie. I’m talking costume drama. I’m talking family tragedy. I’m talking historical fiction. I’m talking “On the Nature of Daylight.” I’m talking reactions that range from snotty crying for two hours straight to scoffing at obscene emotional manipulation (and people disagreeing about that being extremely normal to each other). That’s right, folks—we’ve reeled in this awards season’s freshest, meatiest piece of Oscar bait.
I’m of course referring to Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, which hit theaters in limited release over Thanksgiving and has been a Best Picture front-runner since it premiered at Telluride this summer. And whether you loved this movie or hated it, it’s not beating the Oscar bait allegations. But what actually are the traits that come to mind when we think of Oscar bait? And what track record do the films boasting those traits actually have at the Oscars? Is it guaranteed that Hamnet will take home some trophies come March? (Spoiler: Yeah, kinda!) I’ve put together a handy checklist for the next time you feel your eyes stinging at the multiplex and fear that you might be falling victim to some effectively pungent Oscar bait. Let’s see how much of it might come into play at next year’s Academy Awards ceremony.
1. Is it set in the past?
We’ve seen our fair share of not a phone in sight, just living in the moment cinema as many filmmakers have retreated into a pre-internet era for their recent movies. But I don’t just mean some bell-bottoms and ’70s nostalgia—Oscar bait is at its most stereotypical when it features Tudor architecture, candlelit rooms, and people who don’t bathe regularly. A good old-fashioned costume drama is one of the hallmark genres of Oscar bait, but regardless of exactly when they’re set, period films have historically dominated Best Picture. Early winners like All Quiet on the Western Front (1930) and Gone With the Wind (1939) established the notion that setting a movie in the past is a viable path to the Academy’s top prize. In fact, the latter was the first Best Picture winner that was released in December with the intention of meeting the late edge of the Oscars’ qualification window, now a common strategy for films with awards aspirations. (Studios were already gaming release dates by the Academy’s 12th ceremony!)
But the costume drama boom really took off in the post-New Hollywood ’80s. The studio Merchant Ivory became synonymous with the genre, especially after its most famous production, A Room With a View, nabbed eight nominations in 1987. The ’90s, though, brought about some of the most infamous Best Picture winners, all of which were period films with Oscar-bait sensibilities: Dances With Wolves, The English Patient, and Shakespeare in Love remain some of the most controversial choices for the top Oscar, beating out beloved films like Goodfellas, Fargo, and Saving Private Ryan.
Period films continued to make noise at the Oscars into the 21st century, the most egregious examples being 2010’s The King’s Speech and 2011’s The Artist. (This is probably the first time you’ve thought about those movies in over a decade.) But as Hamnet looks to follow in the genre’s footsteps, the Academy has been uncharacteristically leaning more contemporary lately. Six out of the last seven Best Picture winners were set in the present—the exception being 2023’s Oppenheimer. Films like Parasite and Anora dealt with modern life in an especially urgent way and are more tonally in line with this year’s other Best Picture front-runner, One Battle After Another. Awarding those kinds of films may signal a shift in the Academy’s taste—Hamnet might represent an old school of Oscar thought that isn’t the surefire path to victory it once was.
That said, don’t be surprised if Hamnet takes home more total Academy Awards than Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, even if it loses Best Picture. Period films still clean up in the technical categories—awards for costumes, makeup and hairstyling, and production design have recently gone to films like Little Women, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Poor Things. Basically, if you’re putting a famous actress in a corset and petticoat, just start making room on your mantle for your Best Costume Design Oscar now. This year, though, while Hamnet will surely nab a number of nominations across the technical categories, it will likely be going up against fantasy and sci-fi films (some of which are also period-set) like Sinners, Wicked: For Good, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and Frankenstein. Those genres also often find success in those categories, so a Hamnet sweep is far from a guarantee.
This year’s offenders: Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee
Statue Season
2. Does it involve a historical figure or event?
This goes hand-in-hand with a period setting, but you know an actor has an Oscar at the forefront of their mind when they take on the role of a historical figure. I’ve written in this column about how music biopics aren’t actually the Oscars cheat code they’re cracked up to be, but biographical roles in general are still often rewarded in the acting categories. (Though it’s far more prevalent in the Best Actor wins than the Best Actress wins.) J. Robert Oppenheimer, Judy Garland, and Winston Churchill have all been winning roles in the past 10 years. Recreating a story people are already familiar with—and therefore mimicking characters people know—can be seen as an easier sell to Oscar voters than something entirely new.
Hamnet follows William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) and his wife Agnes (Jessie Buckley) as they raise their children and mourn the death of their young son, Hamnet. But unlike a recent biopic success story, Oppenheimer, which adhered largely to a fact-based narrative, Hamnet deals in historical fiction. It’s based on a novel that competed in literary prizes for fiction and hinges on the largely speculative notion that Shakespeare’s Hamlet was inspired by its author’s paternal grief. The film’s mix of fiction and history puts it in conversation with ’90s Best Picture winners like Titanic or—perhaps its most natural comparison—Shakespeare in Love. That said, Hamnet’s thesis relies on a questionable reading of Hamlet that some have pushed back on. Could it be too big of a reach for the Academy, too?
This year’s offenders: Hamnet, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee
3. Is it a tearjerker (or, more accurately, a tear-manhandler) as a result of an interpersonal tragedy?
There’s no need to be embarrassed. It’s happened to all of us. You’re watching a melodramatic Oscar hopeful that is extremely transparent about its intentions as you see it practically force its way through the screen to tug on your heartstrings. And yet, you still cry anyway. That’s what these movies do best! But it leaves you (and the Academy) with an odd conundrum: If the movie made you cry, does that mean you liked it? There’s the notion that a movie “worked” on you because it assaulted your tear ducts and elicited an emotional response, but does that make it good?
The Academy opted for “yes” on that throughout the golden age of Oscar bait in the ’90s as voters cried through Forrest Gump, The English Patient, and Titanic and awarded them all the top prize. But while you might have welled up at some recent Oscar players like Everything Everywhere All At Once and Past Lives, Hamnet harkens back to an era of weepies that hasn’t been as impactful at the Oscars lately. That could work in its favor: The Academy often shows goodwill toward any film that reminds it of Hollywood’s heyday. But Hamnet’s penchant for tears has also led some to call the film emotionally manipulative and exploitative. Perhaps the weepy is simply a relic of a bygone era and the Academy will see it as such.
Regardless, Hamnet’s sobs and sniffles will certainly benefit its lead actors’ awards campaigns—Jessie Buckley in particular has absolutely no competition for Best Actress. That is the single biggest lock at this stage of Oscar season. Buckley has cemented her status as a uniquely compelling actor after her roles in I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Lost Daughter (which garnered her a Best Supporting Actress nom), and Women Talking, and the Academy would be ready to coronate her no matter what her performance was. But her turn as Agnes is a viscerally emotional (read: lots of intense crying) and weighty role that had me thinking that the Academy will somehow invent new awards to give her for it. That’s not to say her performance is unmerited bait—she absolutely delivers the real emotions that Hamnet is exploring—but it also is certainly the type of showy, intense role that the Academy loves to reward. Mescal could also make some noise in the Best Supporting Actor race (via some mild category fraud), but that’s shaping up to be this year’s most stacked category. He’ll likely have to beat out the One Battle boys (Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro) along with Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein). Still, even as Best Picture remains up in the air, Buckley’s victory is as close to a guarantee as you can get four-plus months out from the Academy Awards.
This year’s offenders: Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Train Dreams
4. Are the lead actors using accents?
Get ready to learn Shakespearean English, buddy. It’s one thing to throw on an era-appropriate costume, but you have to complete the transformation with an era-appropriate dialect. I mean, in 2023, the Best Actor Oscar was engraved the second Cillian Murphy channeled a vaguely transatlantic accent for Oppenheimer. And it’s always a plus if you can pull off an accurate impression of a voice everyone knows—like how Timothée Chalamet nearly raspily whined his way to an Oscar last year as Bob Dylan. In Hamnet’s case, we obviously don’t know exactly what William Shakespeare sounded like, but both of the film’s leads are Irish and did throw an English twang on their voices for their roles. Sure, most Americans probably won’t pick up on that, but if you harness a voice strong enough to effectively deliver Hamlet’s “to be, or not to be” speech, that might be enough right there to land a trophy.
This year’s offenders: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Wicked: For Good, The Testament of Ann Lee
Bonus: Does it allude to the power of cinema?
OK, this is where I admit I’m a bit of a sucker for this strain of Oscar bait. If a film ends on a poignant note about movie magic, I can’t help but get a little swept up in it. I mean, movies, man. Need I say more?
Delivering an ode to cinema isn’t as prevalent an Oscar-bait strategy as, say, sobbing directly into the camera—though it was present in recent Best Picture Everything Everywhere All At Once’s film references (and not to bring up The Artist again but … yeah, The Artist happened). But a few Best Picture nominees as of late took the meta-cinema route, like Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood, Licorice Pizza, and The Fabelmans. This year, both international front-runner Sentimental Value and fringe contender Jay Kelly (which have surprisingly similar plots) are set in the world of film. But I would argue Hamnet is the most explicit in its championing of the power of cinema. OK, the film is technically addressing theater and the written word as therapeutic outlets for reckoning with grief, but, come on, Shakespeare never even got the chance to see, like, 28 Years Later. I imagine he would’ve felt the same way about cinema. “Theater magic” just doesn’t have the same ring to it anyway.
This year’s offenders: Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, Hamnet
Stock Watch
To paraphrase one of cinema’s great stockbrokers: Nobody knows if an Oscar stock is going to go up, down, sideways, or in circles. In this section, we’ll evaluate who’s on the up-and-up and whose momentum is sputtering out as the competition across categories heats up.
Stock up: One Battle After Another is kicking off the awards circuit with a bang: It took home the top prizes from the Gotham Awards, New York Film Critics Circle, and the National Board of Review this week. Rose Byrne also took home NYFCC and NBR awards for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, boosting her status as a fringe Best Actress Oscar contender. Sinners’s Wunmi Mosaku nabbed the Best Supporting Performance Gotham Award, signalling that she might sneak into the Oscar race as well.
Stock down: Sean Penn missed out on both the NYFCC and NBR awards for Best Supporting Actor, losing to his costar Benicio del Toro—might his turn as Col. Lockjaw be losing its luster? Wicked: For Good continues to be defied by gravity as its Oscar odds fall down Gold Derby’s list amid the film’s middling reviews. Blue Moon’s Ethan Hawke got paired up with Sydney Sweeney for this year’s edition of Variety’s Actors on Actors series. Make of that what you will.
