Welcome to Statue Season! Each week leading up to the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, we’ll be checking in on the closest races, the winningest narratives, and the plain old movie magic that will decide who’s taking home the gold on March 15, 2026. This week, we’re taking stock of the exclusive club of actors who have won three Oscars—and who could be the next to join them.
If Emma Stone’s bald head and whiteface via antihistamine cream haven’t tipped you off, she’s got her eyes on another Oscar. Bugonia hit theaters over the weekend, and, in addition to the physical transformations she’s known for in her collaborations with director Yorgos Lanthimos, her performance features manipulation, physical torture, and the repeated phrase “Let’s have a dialogue.” All the signs are there—with two Oscars under her belt, it’s clear that she’s already itching for a third.
If you’re thinking that sounds like a lot, you’re absolutely correct. Stone landing a third Oscar with Bugonia would put her in quite exclusive company—not only does the Three-Timers Club have only six members, but Stone would be the fastest to pull off the Oscar hat trick since Walter Brennan nabbed three trophies from 1936 to 1940. Earning three Oscar wins is not an easy feat—the last person to do it was Frances McDormand, and it took her over 20 years from her first trophy to her third. So how likely is it that we’ll see Stone—or, really, anyone—join the Three-Timers Club this year, let alone in our lifetime?
There are exactly 20 living actors with two Oscars—already a pretty exclusive club in and of itself. To explore who actually has the best chance of landing a third trophy at some point, whether it’s this year or 20 years into the future, I’ve narrowed it down to the top 12 actors who I think have the easiest path to the Three-Timers Club. Let’s weigh the pros and cons of each in their quest for another statuette, in order from most to least likely to actually get there. (Note: The Oscar résumés listed for each entry include only their stats in the acting categories—nominations as a producer, as a director, or for a special award weren’t considered.)
It’s Statue Season
1. Sean Penn
Oscar résumé: Five nominations, with wins for Mystic River (Best Actor, 2003) and Milk (Best Actor, 2008)
The case for a third Oscar: I’m tempted to say Penn will win a third Oscar. Penn’s turn as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in One Battle After Another has been leading the Best Supporting Actor race since the movie sped down the highway to rave reviews back in September. By throwing on a too-tight T-shirt and, you know, just contorting his face into expressions of unspeakable menace, Penn might have that third trophy all but locked up for March’s Academy Awards ceremony. However …
The case against: This weekend, Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value will hit theaters in a limited release across the U.S. and offer Penn’s most formidable opponent in the Supporting Actor race: Stellan Skarsgard. The film (and Skarsgard’s performance) has gotten fantastic reviews on the festival circuit since it premiered at Cannes and nearly won the Palme d’Or in May. Skarsgard has never won an Oscar (or been nominated!), and the Academy could see this as an opportunity to right that wrong—Gold Derby currently has Penn and Skarsgard practically neck and neck for the award.
And if Penn does lose, it’s not a guarantee that he’ll have another chance like this again. While he was practically an auto-nomination throughout the 2000s, his role in One Battle After Another would be his first nomination since he won for Milk back in 2008. He works pretty regularly, but not often in the type of roles that get noticed by the Academy. (Case in point: May I interest you in 100 minutes of him and Dakota Johnson talking in a cab in a movie actually called Daddio?) Plus, he is—how do I put this delicately?—a little bit unhinged. As in, cussing out Will Smith over the slap a full year and a half after it happened and threatening a hypothetical AI rendering of someone’s daughter unhinged. The Academy might be wary of putting him back on the stage—especially after a certain Best Actor’s gum-throwing incident last year (more on that later).
2. Emma Stone
Oscar résumé: Four nominations, with wins for La La Land (Best Actress, 2016) and Poor Things (Best Actress, 2023)
The case for a third Oscar: Stone is the only other person on this list who is in competition for their third Oscar this year. Even in a stacked Best Actress field, she has a strong shot at a nomination for her performance in Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia, especially after two of her three previous collaborations with the director were recognized by the Academy. More broadly speaking, Stone has established herself as a critical darling through her acting career and production work via her company Fruit Tree (I Saw the TV Glow, A Real Pain). She’s aligned herself with interesting voices and still has many years ahead of her to gain entrance to the Three-Timers Club. And honestly, her mockery of Nathan Fielder in The Curse has stuck with me so deeply that I would allow the Academy to retroactively honor a TV role in this one instance.
The case against: Stone’s wins came rather early in her career, and it may be a while before the Academy is ready to throw another trophy her way. Plus, her last win, for her role in Lanthimos’s Poor Things, was pretty polarizing—many people expected Lily Gladstone to take home the gold for Killers of the Flower Moon (and based on Stone’s reaction, so did she). The divisive reception to her Poor Things victory may have also been an early sign of fatigue setting in with regard to the Stone-Lanthimos team: Bugonia made just shy of $5 million domestically in its wide release over the weekend, and it’s not looking likely that Stone will win anything for the film. Best Actress is widely seen as Jessie Buckley’s (Hamnet) to lose, with Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) serving as the most likely spoiler.
3. Denzel Washington
Oscar résumé: Nine nominations, with wins for Glory (Best Supporting Actor, 1989) and Training Day (Best Actor, 2001)
The case for a third Oscar: For my money’s worth, Highest 2 Lowest was the single most fun theatrical experience I’ve had (or will have) this year, and I’d give Washington the Oscar for “Why she gotta be a bitch?” alone. Alas, it’s looking like he’ll miss out on this year’s ceremony. Even so, despite not having won in over 20 years, Washington is still regularly recognized. He’s gotten four nods since taking home a trophy for Training Day in 2001—most recently for 2021’s The Tragedy of Macbeth. (Although his greatest performance in that time may have actually been at the Oscars—who could forget “At your highest moment, be careful; that’s when the devil comes for you”?) He’s usually good for one movie role per year—next up is the Netflix heist film Here Comes the Flood, alongside Robert Pattinson—and even when his movies aren’t so great, he’s still often considered for a nomination, like when he almost landed a nod for last year’s poorly received Gladiator II. Washington is a full-on legend still consistently performing at the top of his game—his third Oscar is a matter of when, not if.
The case against: Washington has maintained lately that he’s not chasing another trophy. “I don’t care about the Oscars,” he said earlier this year on the Highest 2 Lowest press tour. “I don’t care about that kind of stuff.” (This attitude was also evidenced by his reaction to the Gladiator II snub: “Are you kidding me? Awww. Oh, I’m so upset.”) As much as I loved him in Highest 2 Lowest, you don’t get the sense that an Oscar was at the front of his mind as he was trading bars with A$AP Rocky. He also still often lends his talents to action fare that isn’t likely to be recognized by the Academy—like the Equalizer series—and he’s shifted some of his attention to producing. Third Oscar or not, Washington’s legend status is cemented, and he knows he has nothing to prove.
4. Cate Blanchett
Oscar résumé: Eight nominations, with wins for The Aviator (Best Supporting Actress, 2004) and Blue Jasmine (Best Actress, 2013)
The case for a third Oscar: Frankly, Blanchett should already have three—or, at least, Lydia Tár (who is real) should have an Oscar for playing herself. Regardless, Blanchett has been a regular Oscar nominee throughout the 21st century and established herself as a generational actor in the process. She won’t get nominated this year, despite turns in the acclaimed Black Bag and Father Mother Sister Brother, but if her filmography is any indication, she has about 15 auteur directors in her DMs at any given time. It won’t be long before she’s nominated again.
The case against: Despite Blanchett’s reputation as one of Hollywood’s most prestigious actors, her filmography isn’t without its flaws. I mean, just a year ago she was donning that lopsided red wig in the Borderlands movie. But even putting quality aside, she often takes on films that aren’t necessarily in pursuit of awards—her upcoming movies are the action-comedy Alpha Gang and the drama Sweetsick, which is by a first-time director. She takes on lots of different types of roles and doesn’t always have her eyes on the prize—Tár may have ultimately been her best shot at that third Oscar.
5. Robert De Niro
Oscar résumé: Nine nominations, with wins for The Godfather Part II (Best Supporting Actor, 1974) and Raging Bull (Best Actor, 1981)
The case for a third Oscar: Come on, it’s Robert De Niro! I don’t think anyone would be mad at the guy who played Travis Bickle being canonized in the Three-Timers Club. And there have certainly been a number of opportunities to hand him that third trophy recently—he’s still often in multiple films a year, and, after a lull in the late ’90s and 2000s, De Niro got Oscar nods in 2012, 2019, and 2024. De Niro won’t make an impact at this year’s ceremony (even though we all definitely agree that The Alto Knights should snag him at least two trophies), but it’s been so long since his last win that he could be due for another coronation soon.
The case against: Five of De Niro’s Oscar-nominated roles (including his most recent two) have come from his collaborations with Martin Scorsese, and the legendary director famously doesn’t have the best record at the Oscars—Raging Bull is the only Scorsese picture that yielded De Niro a win. While the actor is bound to have a role in at least one of the roughly 900 Scorsese projects in development that could land him an Oscar nomination, the statistics don’t indicate a strong chance for a win there. Plus, De Niro is 82 years old—he may be looking to wind down his prolific career soon. The Oscar opportunities could dwindle from there—unless, of course, Focker In-Law sweeps the 2027 ceremony.
6. Mahershala Ali
Oscar résumé: Two nominations, with wins for Moonlight (Best Supporting Actor, 2016) and Green Book (Best Supporting Actor, 2018)
The case for a third Oscar: Ali’s acting stock skyrocketed after he quickly snagged two statuettes in the mid-2010s. While his career has cooled down since then, his performance in Moonlight is still rightfully celebrated as one of the best of the century. It is a truly excellent performance, and still proof that Ali can steal the show in Oscar-worthy productions.
The case against: Should I just copy and paste the entire Wikipedia article for “Development of Blade (upcoming film)” here? After collecting his two Oscars in quick succession, Ali signed on to portray the Marvel vampire hunter. That has turned out to be a fateful decision. As the film’s production slowly unraveled into a full-blown catastrophe over years of delays, Ali’s attachment to the film slowed the momentum he built off those two Oscars to a screeching halt. Since then, his limited output has included a number of voice roles and Jurassic World Rebirth—not exactly the oeuvre we expected from someone who established their bona fides so quickly.
7. Jodie Foster
Oscar résumé: Five nominations, with wins for The Accused (Best Actress, 1988) and The Silence of the Lambs (Best Actress, 1991)
The case for a third Oscar: Wouldn’t it rock if Jodie Foster got a meaty role in an awesome movie again? Even though she still works pretty frequently—and got an Oscar nomination as recently as 2024 for her supporting part in Nyad—it’s been a while since she landed a great leading film role. But if she did, I could totally see the Academy and audiences alike heralding her big-screen comeback. People were so ready for Season 4 of True Detective to jump-start the Jodie Foster hype train that even when the season landed with a thud, she still picked up an Emmy. Now someone do that with a movie, and make it actually good this time!
The case against: Foster just recently started working at a steady pace again after her acting output took a dip in the 2010s when she shifted her focus to directing. It may take some time for her to build up the momentum toward an Oscar-worthy role again. The biopic-y supporting parts she often books, like in Nyad or 2021’s The Mauritanian (which won her a Golden Globe), are often good enough for a nomination but are a little too thin to translate to a win.
8. Anthony Hopkins
Oscar résumé: Six nominations, with wins for The Silence of the Lambs (Best Actor, 1991) and The Father (Best Actor, 2020)
The case for a third Oscar: Look, I know Hopkins is almost 90, but the man has not slowed down. Take IMDb with a grain of salt, but the site currently has him attached to EIGHT upcoming projects. He’s putting out work at a higher clip than Timothée Chalamet and Austin Butler! And he’s still getting rewarded for it—he won a statuette for The Father just five years ago, becoming the oldest recipient of an acting Oscar. It’s not totally off base to think he could break his own record—Hopkins nearly landed another nomination for his fantastic turn in 2022’s Armageddon Time.
The case against: OK, yes, he is about to enter his 10th decade, and the rate he’s working at can’t be sustained forever. Also, the fact that he’s won so recently may hurt his chances at that third trophy—the Academy might feel that it has already covered his late-career recognition with that Oscar for The Father and could be reluctant to honor him again.
9. Renée Zellweger
Oscar résumé: Four nominations, with wins for Cold Mountain (Best Supporting Actress, 2003) and Judy (Best Actress, 2019)
The case for a third Oscar: I don’t think a lot of people remember that Zellweger has two Oscars, which could actually work in her favor. Her wins were for Cold Mountain, which was a hit in the early 2000s but is hardly remembered today, and the Judy Garland biopic Judy, which may as well not exist. If she were back in Oscar contention for a big role in a movie people actually saw and liked, who says she couldn’t nab a third?
The case against: Well, it’s gonna take more than Bridget Jones … and that’s kind of all she’s had going on recently. The fourth installment in the rom-com series, this year’s Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, was Zellweger’s first movie role since 2019’s Judy. Her recurring role in the latest season of Only Murders in the Building may also signal a greater and more lasting shift to TV.
10. Tom Hanks
Oscar résumé: Six nominations, with wins for Philadelphia (Best Actor, 1993) and Forrest Gump (Best Actor, 1994)
The case for a third Oscar: Hanks is certainly considered among Hollywood’s living legends and has the cachet necessary for Three-Timers Club admission. And since he’s joined Wes Anderson’s crew, he’s been turning in some compelling work—he was excellent in 2023’s Asteroid City, and he was quite literally hoopin’ in this year’s The Phoenician Scheme. It’s been 30 years since he won his two trophies in back-to-back ceremonies, and the Academy could be ready to see him win again—with the right role.
The case against: The type of middlebrow dramas that made Hanks a lock for an annual nomination throughout the ’90s haven’t given him the same results in the 21st century. He just missed out on nods for The Post, Captain Phillips, and Sully (wake me up inside …)—all roles representative of the kind of stuff the Academy couldn’t get enough of in Hanks’s early film career. His Supporting Actor nomination for 2019’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood was his first Oscar nod in nearly 20 years. And outside of his collaborations with Anderson, Hanks’s filmography has been … interesting in the last few years, to say the least. He starred in two truly cursed Robert Zemeckis films (2022’s Pinocchio and 2024’s Here) and some junky dramas that didn’t land (2021’s Finch and 2022’s A Man Called Otto), and let’s not forget that Colonel Tom Parker voice in Elvis. It seems wild to say this about such a broadly appealing star like Hanks, but maybe he’s gotten too weird for the Academy?
11. Sally Field
Oscar résumé: Three nominations, with wins for Norma Rae (Best Actress, 1979) and Places in the Heart (Best Actress, 1984)
The case for a third Oscar: She’s iconic, beloved, and one of the most comforting presences in cinema history. Field certainly has the legend status worthy of the Three-Timers Club, and, despite the misleading title of 80 for Brady, she’s only 78 and still regularly acting.
The case against: Even with the two trophies, Field doesn’t have the most prolific track record at the Oscars. The kindly maternal figures she became known for in the ’90s never quite translated to a nomination. Her nod for 2012’s Lincoln was her first recognition since the mid-’80s, and she hasn’t been back since. That might also be due to the fact that her recent output hasn’t totally been in line with what we think of as Oscar fare. She’s mostly taken her talents to mid-tier comedies like Hello, My Name Is Doris; Spoiler Alert; and 80 for Brady. And this is the premise of her next movie, presented without commentary: Netflix’s adaptation of the bestseller Remarkably Bright Creatures, wherein Field will befriend a talking octopus. Make of that what you will.
12. Adrien Brody
Oscar résumé: Two nominations, with wins for The Pianist (Best Actor, 2002) and The Brutalist (Best Actor, 2024)
The case for a third Oscar: I mean, he’s technically batting a thousand!
The case against: OK, yeah, I just remembered him throwing his gum at his girlfriend last year. They’re never letting him on that stage again.
Bonus: What About the Four-Timers Club?
The Four-Timers Club is a lonely one. There’s only one person in it: Katharine Hepburn, perhaps the greatest screen actor of all time, who famously never attended an Oscar ceremony to accept a statuette in person. Perhaps eschewing the whole thing is secretly the best path to an Oscar! But is there actually anyone in line to double the membership of the Four-Timers Club? Only four living actors have three trophies: Meryl “21 Nominations” Streep, Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Frances McDormand. Nicholson is retired, and Day-Lewis is probably going to retreat back into retirement harder than ever after the reception to his future nepo-baby classic, Anemone.
That leaves Streep and McDormand—and despite Streep’s reputation as an Oscar cheat code, I’m giving the edge to McDormand. For one, she’s younger. But Streep has also taken her foot off the gas in terms of Oscar-hopeful roles. She hasn’t been nominated since her turn in 2017’s The Post and is now in the longest stretch without an Oscar nod of her career. She’s now invested some attention into TV, and her only confirmed upcoming movie role is in The Devil Wears Prada 2. While McDormand won her last two Academy Awards pretty recently and will likely have to wait a while for a potential fourth, she’s still consistently taking on Oscar-worthy fare—next up is another collaboration with her husband, Joel Coen, for Jack of Spades, alongside Josh O’Connor. My honest guess is that Hepburn will remain solo in the Four-Timers Club for the foreseeable future, but if I had to choose who’s most likely to get there, it would be McDormand.
Stock Watch
To paraphrase one of cinema’s great stockbrokers: Nobody knows if an Oscar stock is going to go up, down, sideways, or in circles. In this section, we’ll evaluate who’s on the up-and-up and whose momentum is sputtering out as the competition across categories heats up.
Stock up: Netflix doesn’t release its box office numbers, but the photos of Jacob Elordi’s Frankenstein transformation making the rounds on social media might mean people actually went and saw the movie in theaters for Halloween ahead of its streaming release this Friday. Abbott Elementary contributed to some grassroots campaigning for Sinners: Its Halloween episode included a Ryan Coogler–IMAX screen couple’s costume. Chances are you saw an Elphaba or a Glinda at a costume party over the weekend; the Wicked: For Good hype train (or hype flying monkey?) is officially taking off.
Stock down: Jeremy Allen White’s Springsteen impression wasn’t enough to keep Deliver Me From Nowhere from falling out of the top five at the box office in only its second weekend, devastating his Oscar hopes. Teyana Taylor has a starring role in the viciously panned Ryan Murphy show All’s Fair—is it bad enough to impact her Oscar campaign? Bugonia’s underwhelming box office opening (and, perhaps, general fatigue over the director’s whole deal?) has all but taken Yorgos Lanthimos out of contention for Best Director. Ya gotta make them want you, Yorgos!
