The first week of the 2026-27 NBA season is nearly in the books, which means that it’s time to make some sweeping declarations (call them overreactions, if you must) based on just a handful of games. We’re working with impossibly small sample sizes and stats that will swing wildly over the next few weeks. But why be rational? The NBA’s opening week is a perfect stage for exaggeration. Let it wash over us all.
1. The Miami Heat are already on life support.
The Heat are the most disappointing team in the league right now. That’s not to say they can’t turn things around or solve whatever’s ailing them, but through the first week of this season, pretty much everything about them has been a disaster.
They’re 0-3, with losses against the Timberwolves, Pistons, and depleted Hornets. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging nearly a point a minute, but the team has been outscored by 54 in his 88 minutes. He fouled out of that aforementioned loss against Charlotte, and Andrew Wiggins, who’s really struggled, got all his minutes taken by Pelle Larsson in the fourth quarter.
We had a feeling that Miami would play fast, but with Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo—two stars whose minutes have been staggered by Erik Spoelstra—its offense has looked uncomfortably sped up. Very early on against the Hornets, Giannis dribbled up the left side of the court, passed to Bam on the wing, and watched him misfire on a contested 3 with 20 seconds on the shot clock.
Klay Thompson unfortunately looks old and irreplaceable. His outside shooting is critical, but it comes at a painful cost—he’s a slow defender who keeps fouling people. Thompson’s crunch-time minutes against Charlotte were a testament to the dearth of two-way wings on this roster. Brandon Miller hunted him in the closing minute, drew a foul, and put the game away.
Making matters worse, Miami has gotten obliterated on the glass, which is not the norm under Spoelstra. Time will tell whether that trend will hold, but this isn’t a huge team. Right now, with 6-foot-11 Nick Richards out of the rotation, Bobby Portis is the backup center and 6-foot-10 Nikola Jovic has already seen his minutes dwindle.
If you’re searching for good news, the Heat have endured the worst 3-point luck in the league by a significant margin. The Timberwolves and Pistons absolutely lit them up. The defense hasn’t been atrocious, otherwise. They’ve kept opponents away from the rim, only to watch them knock down an unsustainable 57.1 percent of their long 2s. All that will eventually turn around (and Davion Mitchell looks great). But don’t be surprised if the Heat miss the playoffs entirely. The East is unforgiving and slows down for no team. By the time they figure things out, it may be too late.
Jaylen Brown dribbles during the game against the Pistons
2. Philadelphia should keep its foot on the gas.
I’ll refrain from making any bold proclamations about this fascinating team after watching its first few games—consider me skeptical about the defense!—but I am willing to state what’s already obvious: Philly is uncontainable in transition. We expected that to be true before the season even started. Tyrese Maxey, LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, and VJ Edgecombe are all dynamite in the open floor. But it’s one thing to list names and another to watch them take flight together:
Through three games, the Sixers rank sixth in transition frequency, and their starting lineup leads all five-man units in fast-break points per game. But there are still plenty of opportunities for this group to go even faster, whether by being more hawkish in passing lanes and hoping that Joel Embiid can be a backstop at the rim, or by getting to the first option a little faster after a dead ball. Embracing how the Miami Heat play and eschewing pick-and-roll basketball in favor of a randomized, one-on-one, relentlessly downhill attack wouldn’t be the worst idea.
Philly’s half-court offense is a work in progress, and finding the right balance among its four stars will be critical in determining this team’s destiny. But the Sixers don’t have the luxury of regular-season experimentation in such a competitive conference. They need to find an identity and lean into it.
Embiid is a tricky fit in games that turn into track meets, but he’s also skilled enough to initiate delay sets from the top of the arc. It’s a great way to keep everyone involved and flow into actions that keep defenses on their toes. More generally, the success of their half-court offense will be more dependent on egos and sacrifice than on whatever scheme Nick Nurse’s coaching staff settles on. That doesn’t necessarily translate to a ton of ball movement. It’s more about identifying who has the right matchup and poking at it. That could be LeBron in the post, Jaylen at the elbow, or a Maxey-Embiid pick-and-roll. See where the advantage is, and then go.
Above all else, the Sixers should have no brakes. It’s a mindset that can accentuate their best players—particularly Brown, who can (should?) lead the NBA in fast-break points. Run off turnovers. Fly off makes. Sprint off misses. This seems like a recipe for success.
Ja Morant shoots over Darius Acuff Jr.
3. Ja Morant has already made the Blazers my favorite League Pass team.
I don’t know how good the Blazers will be this season, but I do know that I forgot how much pleasure can be derived from watching Ja Morant command a basketball game, yo-yoing defenders with You Can See Everything levels of manipulation. I was a Morant cynic after he was traded to the Blazers—I didn’t (and still don’t, to be honest) understand why they wanted him—but Ja’s celebration with Damian Lillard, a fellow undersized point guard who’s carried the hopes and dreams of a small-market NBA franchise on his shoulders, was charmingly sentimental.
Morant cared in Portland’s season-opening blowout win against the Suns. He talked shit, hustled for loose balls, and carried himself like someone who was once destined to be an All-NBA mainstay. Morant’s aesthetic peak rests above that of 99.999 percent of all players who’ve ever appeared in an NBA game. He’s one of the most entertaining players of all time. The functional spacing issues created by his up-and-down 3-point shot will often be mitigated by his ability to slalom through a defense, see the floor, and spray darts out to teammates who can either knock down spot-up 3s or drive hard closeouts. Deni Avdija was an All-Star last season, but he’ll have a blast playing off Morant:
Ja’s lobs will give you a nosebleed, his singular imagination in the open floor will make your eyelids twitch, and more than half of Portland’s shots have been 3s when he’s on the court. Buckle up, Portland. Even if Morant’s All-Star days are a thing of the past, his ability to do things you’ve literally never seen before still exists. Go Blazers. Down with El Cheapo.
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should play off the ball even more.
It’s hard to concentrate on anything basketball related in Oklahoma City after watching Jalen Williams suffer such a devastating injury on Sunday night. All the best to him on making a full recovery and getting back to the player he was. The league is so much better with Dub in it.
Injuries are unfortunately a part of the sport, though; the Thunder still have to play 79 more games without their second-best player. And before Williams went down, I had a thought while watching their first couple of games. Most of this is based on anecdotal evidence, but there’s almost nothing more demoralizing for an opponent than when the Thunder score without SGA’s direct help. He’s in the game but working exclusively off the ball, either never touching it or functioning entirely as a dummy on the weakside. We all know he can bury opponents with preposterous shotmaking, but SGA’s ability to take over games without overwhelming his own team’s offense is special.
I’m thinking about a few plays on opening night, when the Thunder still shined without SGA being directly involved, even though he also took 27 shots and scored 32 points. Some of that was thanks to Stephon Castle’s physical defense and Victor Wembanyama’s focus on Shai, but some of it felt like an intentional continuation from the preseason, when OKC's offense didn’t over-rely on its reigning two-time MVP as an initiator or finisher.
It’s not that he’s a luxury. Far from it. The Thunder do in fact need SGA to hit hundreds of seemingly impossible jumpers if they want to win their second title in three years. Gilgeous-Alexander’s on-ball percentage is about where it was last year, and the team is obviously at its best when he’s drawing fouls and drilling acrobatic leaners. With Shai on the bench, the Thunder’s offensive rating through two games is 76.0.
But there’s just something about watching everyone else shine independently when he’s on the floor. It’s so satisfying to see Cason Wallace bring the ball up to run a successful two-man game with Isaiah Hartenstein as SGA looks on from the opposite corner, or to watch a dual-side action where he comes off a stagger away just to hold the defense’s attention as Williams gets the ball after curling off his own wide pindown. (SGA finished first in perimeter off-ball gravity last season.)
The Thunder can still win it all if Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in usage rate. But their path back to the Finals (this season and for several more to come) will feature fewer hurdles if their offense evolves into a more equal-opportunity invasion. Hand Chet Holmgren, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, and Wallace the spatula and let them cook.
All this might sound counterintuitive, but it’ll be borderline impossible to slow this group down if everyone in the car gets to grab the steering wheel.
5. Naz Reid is about to average 20-10-5.
I love when a fun player goes to a new team and is able to show off parts of his game that weren’t needed where he used to be. That might be what’s happening to Reid, now the full-time starting power forward for the Hornets, who have a ton of 3-point shooting and players who know how to leverage one another’s gravity.
In Charlotte’s season-opening win against the Brooklyn Nets, Reid tied his career high with seven assists. Here are a few that, for a moment, made me feel bad for Timberwolves fans:
Just look at these passes and where they are coming from! Reid is going coast-to-coast, reading the defense off dribble handoffs, Euro-stepping through the paint, and whipping no-look dimes out of short rolls. Big men with this much skill are precious commodities who invert the floor and make life easier for everyone around them. Now Reid is getting a chance to show he’s so much more than just a shooter.
Averaging 20, 10, and five seems outlandish. And it probably is. (Reid had two assists in the Hornets’ second game and zero in their third.) Hey, I promised overreactions. But placing Reid next to Kon Knueppel and Coby White (both of whom have yet to play) should only increase his efficiency and make it easier to rack up assists.
6. The Milwaukee Bucks should be abolished.
After a brutal preseason that ended with an 0-for-8 shooting performance and included three games in which he never came off the bench, Gary Trent Jr. was a healthy scratch in Milwaukee’s regular-season opener, which is not something that normally happens to someone who just signed a four-year, $64 million contract. People should look into this situation. It seems odd.
Zooming out, while the Bucks have managed to embarrass themselves off the court, they’ve been just as bad on it. There are too many examples to choose from in their opening-night loss against the Washington Wizards, but this one stands out. The Bucks are so concerned with denying an inbound pass to Trae Young that they forget there are four other Wizards still on the court:
Milwaukee had no answers for Leonard Miller during its opening home loss against the Chicago Bulls. It also subjected its fans to extended stretches sans anything close to the execution of an offensive set. If it weren’t for Brayden Burries—who should absolutely be in the starting lineup; what are we doing?—Fiserv Forum would be where dreams go to die. At least the Bucks own none of their first-round picks for the rest of the decade! Adam Silver should consider relegating this organization to the Big Ten.
Marcus Smart shoots a layup against the Dallas Mavericks
7. Marcus Smart is a championship race X factor.
If you view Sixth Man of the Year as an award that’s designed to celebrate the player who’s best at altering an entire game’s trajectory when he enters it—as opposed to the guy who just averages the most points—then there’s a chance you’ll come to see Smart as a legitimate candidate.
Steven Adams and Reed Sheppard are more identifiable figures off Houston’s bench, but Smart’s impact is singular. After a season when he resurrected his career as a defensive linchpin for the Los Angeles Lakers, the 12-year veteran’s unsung contributions were all over the place during Houston’s opening blowout win against the Dallas Mavericks.
His influence can be subtle. A timely peel switch or help rotation. On one play against the Mavericks, he saw that Sheppard was guarding Kyrie Irving—not a matchup the Rockets want!—so he sprang a double-team and let Sheppard switch back onto Max Christie before the Rockets got a stop.
Plays like that give the Rockets freedom to experiment. When fully healthy, they likely won’t spend much time without a center on the floor. But Smart’s blend of toughness, versatility, and intuition allows Ime Udoka to get creative and go small. There’s real trust there. Udoka coached Smart in Boston when he won Defensive Player of the Year. Pair him with Amen Thompson and Fred VanVleet, and Houston has a three-guard lineup that won’t be bullied—as we saw throughout its win against the San Antonio Spurs.
I was already high on Houston before the season started. Smart was one reason. His imperfections are a charm—the endearing scuff on the side of your shoe, a beloved rip below the knee of your favorite jeans. Few role players are able to destabilize their environment in ways that mostly help their own team; Smart’s limitations belie a determination to do everything physically possible to win. Seeing him fly around, spontaneously thwarting offensive sets with a level of anticipation that can’t be taught, was a reminder of just how demonic he can still be. Houston will not regret this signing.
8. Chris Finch already deserves “Playbook of the Year.”
The Timberwolves are in a blissful honeymoon stage right now. They’re exhilarating, fearless, and, seemingly to a man, ecstatic to be coworkers. What really stands out, though, is the tactical layers within their offense. Actions trickle off each other. Yes, they currently lead the league in isolation plays. LaMelo Ball is prone to fire up a quick 3, and Anthony Edwards will see three defenders in front of him and believe (often correctly) that attacking the rim is still the best option.
But, as a whole, part of their early success is thanks to a punctual system that really aligns with their personnel. Their best moments are a flood of syncopated screens, cuts, and passes that take advantage of the entire court. There’s an awareness of spacing combined with improvisational flair. There are ghost screens into flare screens into side pick-and-rolls as someone who’s seemingly uninvolved in the play sneaks from one side of the floor to the opposite corner for an open 3:
Whether Ball is in the game or not, there are shades of how the Charlotte Hornets played last season. Possessions are simultaneously well-organized and choose-your-own-adventure. It’s a philosophy that, early on, has allowed Minnesota to overcome some obvious mistakes. Sometimes blazing speed is the ultimate equalizer. Here’s Joan Beringer not setting a screen for Ant when he’s supposed to. No big deal. Ayo Dosunmu reacts by blowing past his man and generating a wide-open corner 3:
I don’t know how far the Timberwolves will go this season, but if they fall short of expectations, it won’t be Finch’s fault.
9. The Utah Jazz might want a do-over.
Yes, I watched Walker Kessler’s lackluster homecoming and understand how early in the season we are. Who knows how long the injury-prone big man will stay healthy or what the Jazz will look like when Jusuf Nurkic is able to play. But, um, yeah, the Lakers’ new starting center has otherwise looked kind of incredible. He’s finishing everything around the rim that Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are able to give, protecting the paint better than anyone not named Victor Wembanyama, and looking like the exact type of stabilizing interior presence Utah’s young backcourt could really use right about now.
In the shocking sign-and-trade that sent Kessler to the Lakers, his former team received four draft picks and was able to maintain a little more financial flexibility. But then Ty Jerome drops 45 points on you, Jaxson Hayes is immediately pulled out of Will Hardy’s starting five, and L.A. allows only 99.3 points per 100 possessions (!) with Kessler on the court in its first two games, and a pinch of regret inches its way into the frame.
No trade should be judged after just a few games, and pretty much every statistic is meaningless right now. But the Jazz wouldn’t be allowing the most points in the paint if Kessler were still on the team. And, again, if you’ve seen how convenient a target he’s been for Luka and Reaves—and how many corner 3s the Lakers have been able to generate out of simple high pick-and-rolls—it makes you think about how much easier every drive would be for Darryn Peterson and Keyonte George when they reach the paint. Kessler is averaging 16.7 points on 82.1 percent shooting. Maybe (just maybe) the Jazz should’ve given him the contract he wanted.
10. God bless the Pelicans.
Strange things happen in the NBA. There are countless funky plays and weird inexplicable decisions. It’s early, but the Pelicans are responsible for one that I can’t stop thinking about. It happened during the first quarter of New Orleans’s loss at Utah on Friday night, when Jordan Poole, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen, Saddiq Bey, and Bennedict Mathurin all shared the floor. You read that right. These five players were purposefully instructed to work together, as in, be on the court at the same time. It was remarkable. It was bewildering. It was a basketball lineup that could not possibly be less complementary on offense or ineffective on defense. I like to rewatch horror movies that still disturb me on every viewing; similarly, I am desperate to see this again.
Scottie Barnes dribbles against the Chicago Bulls
11. Scottie Barnes is an MVP candidate.
Excusing Barnes’s scoreless dud Sunday night against the Timberwolves, I find it hard to bestow too much hype on Toronto’s 25-year-old star. When it comes to his multipronged promise, no question feels outrageous. What if Barnes eclipses Kawhi Leonard as Toronto’s best player by Christmas Day? What if he establishes himself as the go-to option at the end of quarters and in crunch time? What if Leonard is able to coast through the regular season because Barnes has figured out how to balance relentless tenacity with composed precision, honing a rarefied level of comfort with the ball in his hands?
Watching Barnes in Toronto’s opener, I was reminded of the superstars who play at their own pace, using their size, skill, and touch to get whatever shot they want, whenever they want it. You can see that in the clip below, along with a possession that made me write, “Jayson Tatum impersonation?” in my notes:
Great offensive players are often credited for making the game easier for everyone around them. But what also makes them special is their ability to make the game easier for themselves. It’s a maturity that comes with time and experience. In the play above, Barnes sprints into a screen, makes enough contact to force a switch, seals a smaller defender, and then goes to work at the elbow. The fact that he made this shot is cool, but what’s far more important is that he knew how to get to his spot and acted like his defender wasn’t even there.
I already picked the Raptors to reach the NBA Finals, but I was still blown away by the confidence this dude has displayed throughout Toronto’s commanding wins. His basketball IQ has never been in doubt, but, in the past, Barnes tended to look a bit overexuberant at times. Frazzled, one might say. Now, he’s leveraging his size, moving with the type of unbothered surety his new Hall of Fame teammate is well known for.
There will be nights when his jumper doesn’t fall, and those won’t be the end of the world. Barnes already impacts the game with passes, cuts, rebounds, and the degree of trust he instills in everyone else. But on nights when he’s confidently drilling straightaway 3s and chuckling at helpless defenders who’re constantly one step behind, the Raptors will look like a bona fide champion contender that’s led by a blooming superstar. Scary stuff.
12. Ty Jerome is untradable.
It has to be mentioned. Jerome leads the NBA in scoring, at 34.7 points per game. In a comeback win over the Warriors on Friday night, he yelled “and-fucking-1!” in Draymond Green’s face several times, and the greatest defender of his generation could do nothing about it. Jerome is regularly drilling 3s from several feet behind the arc and has drawn more shooting fouls than Tyrese Maxey and Luka Doncic. His PER is 36.9, and his usage rate is higher than that of Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
I’m not exactly sure what’s happening here, but I am more than prepared for a world where Jerome (at 29 years old!) becomes an actual star. Our cursed timeline deserves a blessing or two.
