The Ringer’s NFL Power Rankings are back after the first month of the season, and I’m delivering what I’m calling the first “progress report.” Four games in, we’re resetting our rankings to reflect what we’ve seen so far this season and spinning forward into what we can expect over the next four weeks.
If a team got off to a hot start or fell flat on its face, that'll be reflected in these rankings, but our guiding principle is always building these rankings based on a team’s likelihood of winning a championship. See where your favorite teams rank below!
1
Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
The NFL’s reigning champions deserve to be back at the top of our rankings. Aside from their upset loss against the Commanders—which was the most inexplicable outcome of a game so far this season—Seattle’s been dominant each week.
I wasn’t sure how the Seahawks offense would look under new coordinator Brian Fleury, but he’s done a great job setting quarterback Sam Darnold up for success and managing multiple games with backup Drew Lock under center. Seattle has the sixth-best success rate on passes in the league because Fleury’s play calling utilizes all of the team’s offensive versatility, and because he’s wise enough to know that his best option is feeding the ball to receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Through four weeks, JSN is top five in catches and receiving yards.
Seattle has one of the toughest stretches of its season coming up, against the 49ers, Broncos, Chiefs, and Bears. After last season, I know to expect the defense to rise to the occasion. If the offense shows up, too, I’ll be pretty damn confident that head coach Mike Macdonald will have his team ready to repeat as champs.
2
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Entering this season, I don’t know whether I doubted any team that made the playoffs last season as much as Jacksonville. I didn’t think it was possible for the offensive line to keep quarterback Trevor Lawrence upright all season, and I didn’t think Jacksonville’s defense could replicate the good turnover luck it had in 2025.
So far, the Jaguars have defied all my doubts, and they’ve now won 11 of their past 12 regular-season games. Lawrence has taken some hits behind this offensive line, but Jacksonville still has a top-10 passing game by expected points added and passer rating. The defense is still a turnover-forcing machine, tied for the league lead in interceptions through four weeks. And beyond the data, it’s simply been one of the NFL’s coolest teams to watch. Head coach Liam Coen has one of the best-designed offenses in the league, and you’d think Lawrence was throwing to several Pro Bowlers based on how open his receivers are at times.
Jacksonville doesn’t get much national attention, so general NFL fans might be missing how well it’s played to start the year. It has a few high-profile games in the coming month, though, so tune in and enjoy the show.
3
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
The Chiefs are back—but things are different than they were before. Thanks to running back Kenneth Walker III, quarterback Patrick Mahomes finally has a dynamic teammate who can create explosive plays on his own. Kansas City hasn’t done the best job of blocking for Walker—he’s just using his speed and elusiveness to make big plays out of nothing. After four weeks, he leads the league in rushing yards over expected, nearly 100 yards clear of Bijan Robinson in second place.
The vibes are great in Kansas City, and I think it’s back as a championship front-runner. The only real snag could be the receiving corps, now that Tyquan Thornton is out for a few months with a dislocated ankle and Rashee Rice is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Chiefs’ early-season bye (Week 5) might give them enough of a reprieve to get Rice back healthy again and figure out a way to work around Thornton’s absence, but they should be in the market for another field-stretching option Mahomes can rely on.
4
San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
Without question, this has been my favorite offense to watch through the first four weeks of the season. Despite all of its injury issues, this unit feels as unstoppable as ever thanks to the combination of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s play calling and quarterback Brock Purdy’s execution.
There’s a symbiosis between Purdy’s passing game and Christian McCaffrey’s run game that started last season and seems to be carrying over into 2026. Defenses are in an impossible bind when they have to decide between loading up the box or keeping safeties deep—and it feels like they’re wrong no matter what choice they make.
I expect San Francisco’s offense to keep rolling over the next month, but how the defense performs will determine whether this is still a top-five team at the midseason mark. Seattle, Atlanta, and Las Vegas have all been excellent to start the year, and playing them will reveal whether this defense has severe flaws that might keep it from contending.
5
Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Multiple things are true in Buffalo. Quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, and the offense is still unstoppable when he’s at his best. Receiver DJ Moore has fit into this group seamlessly, and previously disappointing receiver Keon Coleman seems to be turning a corner. The offensive line is still one of the league’s best, and the Bills can run the ball against anyone. They’re still one of the first teams I think of when the question of who’ll win the AFC arises.
However, this defense is still a liability. Defensive tackle Deone Walker and edge rusher Greg Rousseau are both having phenomenal starts to the season, but they can’t do much to keep receivers from getting open against Buffalo’s secondary. And the number of explosive passes they give up affects how much I feel I can trust the Bills in a playoff game.
If Allen and this offense remain as excellent as they’ve been, the Bills will continue to hover around the top five of our rankings. But at this point, I’m less interested in how the Bills stack up relative to the rest of the league than I am in whether they can finally address some of their clear weaknesses.
6
Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
With the news that quarterback Lamar Jackson’s ankle sprain could potentially be a multi-week issue, I’m more nervous about Baltimore than any other team in our top 10. We saw just a year ago how out of rhythm Jackson looked while suffering from a nagging hamstring injury, and ankle sprains often have the same effect on athletes. Which makes me wonder whether the same dynamic version of the offense we’ve watched over the first month of the season will exist when he returns.
The Browns, Bengals, and Bills are all on the schedule in the next month, so Baltimore may not need Jackson’s usual explosiveness to win. But Baltimore’s defense and head coach Jesse Minter will need to step up in Jackson’s absence and make sure they’re getting enough stops to keep backup quarterback Tyler Huntley out of high-leverage situations.
7
Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
The Rams will be exactly the team we all expected them to be whenever they decide to stop beating themselves. Los Angeles has lost the sixth-most expected points in the league via turnovers this season, the fourth most via offensive penalties, and the second most on special teams.
Aside from the beatdown they took in Week 1—caused by another mistake that head coach Sean McVay publicly admitted to—the Rams have looked like one of the best and sloppiest teams in football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has a 1-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and most of his picks have stemmed from poor decisions. Stafford has always played a high-risk game, but reining in some of his aggression would be in this offense’s best interest—and could help mitigate the effects of Los Angeles’s penalty and special teams issues, which are out of his control.
Defensively, I’m encouraged by what we’ve seen from the Rams without edge rusher Myles Garrett (and mostly without defensive tackle Aaron Donald). The Rams have blitzed effectively to generate pressure in Garrett’s and Donald’s absences, have improved against the run since their messy showing in Week 1, and are getting the most value out of cornerback Trent McDuffie. Don’t be surprised if the Rams get hot in the next month or so, just as their schedule lightens up.
8
Denver Broncos (2-2)
One reason we wanted to make The Ringer’s NFL Power Rankings quarterly this year was to avoid being too reactionary to weekly results. But it’d be dishonest not to acknowledge the bad taste that Denver’s 24-14 loss to the 49ers left in my mouth.
San Francisco was the better team in that game, and Denver was battling through injuries, so the loss itself doesn’t bother me as much as what I learned about Denver’s offense along the way. It has no identity and no consistent way to feed the ball to its best playmakers. We’ve all been wasting our time debating whether head coach Sean Payton or offensive coordinator Davis Webb is the right play caller to maximize this unit. That’s irrelevant if quarterback Bo Nix won’t play aggressively when receivers are open downfield. Nix has all the tools he needs to succeed: a good arm, an all-time-great offensive mind at head coach, a former quarterback calling plays and relaying information to him, and a strong supporting cast. The only thing standing in his way is himself.
Denver is far too talented to rank any lower than no. 8, but I’m disappointed in its start to the season. The next month offers a couple of opportunities for them to make a statement, including games against the Chargers and Cardinals. When the Broncos are matched up against an inferior team, I expect to see Nix and this offense go into a higher gear and look like the championship front-runners I believe them to be.
9
Chicago Bears (3-1)
When quarterback Caleb Williams went down with a hamstring injury in Week 2, I expected Chicago to take a major tumble in these rankings. But the Bears have since dominated both the Eagles and Jets—and fielded the league’s 12th-best offense by EPA in the process.
Chicago’s success in Williams’s absence is a testament to how good of a play caller head coach Ben Johnson is. Teams knew he would lean on his run game without his star quarterback, and the Bears still averaged 4.3 yards per rush in Weeks 3 and 4. He somehow extracted an efficient performance from third-stringer Case Keenum against the Eagles defense, one of the most talented units in football. And because of their early-season success, they can take their time with Williams’s recovery.
Chicago is well-positioned now, but the next month poses some challenges for its defense, which is still the team’s weakness. Atlanta, New England (assuming receiver A.J. Brown returns by Week 7), and Seattle will each offer a legitimate matchup problem for the Bears’ secondary. If the Bears defense can contribute to wins over this stretch, I’ll be ready to consider them legitimate title contenders.
10
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
The Bengals are in an odd place for me. They’re clearly a more balanced and better-constructed team now than they were in the past, but the results are still lagging.
Their consecutive losses to the Steelers and Jaguars have me wondering whether these are still the same old Bengals who go into each Sunday trying to outscore opponents instead of trying to control the line of scrimmage. They’re currently averaging 42.7 dropbacks per game, the highest mark quarterback Joe Burrow’s had in the first four weeks of a season since 2022, and that doesn’t feel like a sustainable way for the Bengals to play all year.
But I can’t blame head coach Zac Taylor for leaning so heavily on Burrow and receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Where else are wins going to come from? Their rushing attack isn’t going anywhere right now, and their defense still looks a bit unreliable.
11
Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Minnesota’s off to one of the weirdest 4-0 starts in recent memory. It has a plus-35 point differential despite having the third-worst offense in the NFL by EPA. The Vikings can only be understood through the dominant performance of their defense, with coordinator Brian Flores calling the kinds of blitzes that leave opposing teams’ heads spinning. The Vikings have the best defense in football—though it helps that they’ve faced off against several mediocre (or worse) teams to start the year.
Aside from the Bears—whom they beat 9-3, though that was partially influenced by quarterback Caleb Williams leaving the game with a hamstring injury—the Vikings haven’t played any team that clearly looks like a playoff contender. And because of that, the Minnesota offense has been able to get by each week without much heavy lifting.
I’m open to the idea that Minnesota will be able to maintain its winning ways by leaning on Flores and this defense, because it feels like the entire league is helpless against Flores’s relentlessly aggressive scheme. But if this start to the year catapults the Vikings into surprise contention, Kyler Murray and this offense will need to take a big step forward. There used to be a time when Minnesota’s offense was capable of creating explosive plays no matter who was under center, but right now it’s laboring to even move the ball. There have been fleeting moments when Murray has delivered the ball in rhythm downfield and the offense has looked like a classic Kevin O’Connell–coached group, but those occurrences need to be way more frequent in the next few weeks.
12
New England Patriots (2-2)
New England’s season is still alive, but the Patriots will play themselves out of contention if quarterback Drake Maye doesn’t stop turning the ball over. The Patriots should be 3-1 after the first month of the season, but their out-of-rhythm offense has held them back—and made them a difficult team to fully understand.
The play calling from offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels isn’t helping matters. New England has one of the worst early-down rushing attacks in football, ranking 23rd in success rate on first- and second-down rushes. And that’s put more stress on Maye to bail this unit out of bad situations.
Last season, that wasn’t an issue—Maye was lights out in every key moment. But that’s not the case now, and it’s clear that Maye and this offense need receiver A.J. Brown back so they can get some easy looks against tight coverage. New England beat the Bills in Week 4, and Maye led the offense up and down the field in the second half, which has helped restore some of my faith in this team’s ability to get things back in order. And with upcoming games against the Raiders and Jets, they’ll have a shot to quell more of my concerns by the midseason mark.
13
Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
I can’t in good conscience call the Cowboys contenders because their defense is off to an awful start this season. But they have the most enjoyable offense to watch in football right now. Dallas can conjure a scoring drive at will thanks to its well-executed passing game, and I still think there’s room for quarterback Dak Prescott and his supporting cast to improve.
Dallas has scored 30 or more points in three of its first four games, and the team would be 3-1 if not for a botched end-of-game sequence against the Ravens in Brazil. Prescott is playing at an MVP level, completing 70 percent of his passes and putting up a passer rating of 105 in his first four games. And if you ignore Dallas’s uninspiring season-opening loss to the Giants, his passer rating moves to an even better 110.9. He’s surrounded by great playmaking talent, with receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but it’s clear that he’s the one creating the opportunities.
I think Cowboys fans should feel fine about the start of the year, but for the team to take the next step, one of two areas will need to improve: the run game or the defense. Trading for cornerback Joey Porter Jr. might help with the latter, but things have been so rough for this team in coverage that I don’t feel confident banking on major leaps in performance. The more realistic improvement should come from the run game, which averaged 5.1 yards per carry in the first four weeks of last season and just 3.8 yards per carry this time around. That production could jump when guard Tyler Smith comes back from injured reserve. An improved rushing attack would balance this offense and put defenses in an impossible situation where they’ll be forced to choose between keeping the Cowboys’ receivers in check or preventing huge holes in the run game. That’s Dallas’s best shot at being a legitimate playoff team, and it’s a possibility I’m willing to buy into.
14
Carolina Panthers (2-2)
We’ll never know what this Carolina team could have been this season because of the injuries it’s suffered—but head coach Dave Canales and offensive coordinator Brad Idzik are doing all they can to mitigate those issues.
Tackles Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are on injured reserve (Moton is eligible to return later this season), and the Panthers are still fifth in the NFL in average rushing yards before contact. Carolina’s ability to field an effective rushing attack and keep quarterback Bryce Young clean in the pocket is one of the most impressive feats in this young season, and it’s only possible because its play calling is among the league’s best.
Even play calling can’t cover up their personnel issues on defense, though. It’s been a tough year for the front seven, with edge rusher Nic Scourton on injured reserve and defensive lineman Tershawn Wharton on the PUP list. The Panthers are currently allowing the fourth-most yards before contact on rushes and are blitzing at a 40 percent rate to account for the lost edge rushing production—a big jump from their 23 percent rate through the first four weeks last season. Yet in spite of their blitzing, they rank just 19th in quarterback hits, a signal that their aggression isn’t creating a winning edge. Now, starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are on injured reserve, and I was already concerned that Canales’s offense wouldn’t be enough to keep the Panthers afloat as a playoff contender. Regardless, this team will be fun as hell to watch every week.
15
Detroit Lions (2-2)
At 2-2, Detroit is still in the NFC conversation, but I’m ready to sell any stock in the Lions climbing back toward the top of the NFL hierarchy.
For the past three years, the Lions have had only one pathway to winning games: putting up ungodly offensive numbers to cover up a bad (and injured) defense. Unfortunately, even that doesn’t seem to be enough anymore, as this defense has totally bottomed out. Through four weeks, Detroit has the fifth-most points scored and still has a negative point differential. Every other team in the top 10 in points scored is plus-10 or better on the season. The fact that the Lions needed overtime to beat the Saints and a go-ahead touchdown in the final minutes to beat the damn Jets is a horrible omen for the rest of this season.
I don’t doubt that the Lions will find wins against the weaker opponents on their schedule—and there are several coming up in the next month—but this team couldn’t be further from the identity that made them elite a few years ago. Jared Goff has the second-most dropbacks in the league this season, and that indicates far too much reliance on the 31-year-old quarterback. His nine touchdowns and no turnovers look great for the time being, but the lesson from his decade-long career is that regression will come, and it will likely cost this team games because this defense can’t pick up the slack.
This team is too damn talented offensively to write off and too damn fun not to watch. But I won’t be tricked by the gaudy numbers they’re putting up.
16
Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
I can’t believe the Raiders are ranked this high in their first year under new head coach Klint Kubiak. Kubiak’s play calling has real juice, and it seems to have fixed aging quarterback Kirk Cousins as well as offensive playmakers Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. I came into this season questioning whether this roster was balanced enough to piece together an even average offense, but through the first three weeks, the Raiders had a top-10-scoring offense.
The game looks so simple for Cousins within structure right now. He had a 107.2 passer rating through the first three weeks, the best start to a season for him since his 2023 campaign in Minnesota. He’s attacking open voids in coverage and is feeding Bowers now that the tight end is healthy. Kubiak is using Bowers like a true no. 1 receiver, lining him up all over the field to force defenses to show whether they’re in man or zone coverage, and that’s helped Cousins make quick and efficient decisions with the ball.
The Raiders defense deserves a lot of credit for their surprise start to the year, too. Their comeback win over the Saints was helped by New Orleans’s bad turnovers, but they’ve been legitimately good on a down-to-down basis, limiting explosive pass plays with their zone coverages and leaning on newly acquired linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker to solve problems against the run. That combination allows edge rusher Maxx Crosby to pin his ears back, and he’s been producing at a Pro Bowl level again.
The difficulty of Las Vegas’s schedule ratchets up significantly from here, with games against the Bills and Rams on the way. But if the Raiders get to November at or above .500, this season will be a success no matter what happens from there.
17
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
It’s the same old story with the Eagles offense this year.
Through the first month of the season, Philadelphia’s three-and-out rate is one you’d associate with rebuilding teams, its passing efficiency is near the bottom of the league, and it’s already had to finish multiple games without running back Saquon Barkley, who suffered a hamstring injury in the team’s Week 4 loss to the Rams. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is struggling to find explosive passing opportunities because his receivers aren’t getting open, and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion isn’t doing enough to scheme up easy opportunities. Philadelphia’s offensive line has gone from one of the league’s best to unreliable. At times it can still give Hurts clean pockets to work with, but its interior linemen also give up too much penetration on runs and struggle to pick up blitzes in obvious passing situations.
We could chalk up their early-season struggles to the losses of former offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland and receiver A.J. Brown (now in New England), but these problems existed while both were there—dating back to the team’s Super Bowl–winning season in 2024. What’s changed is that the Eagles defense is no longer the best in football. Now, when the offense stalls, it’s costing this team games, as it did during Los Angeles’s comeback win at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Eagles are trying to prevent things from going totally sideways, but the next stretch of their schedule will require Hurts and this group to keep pace with some great opposing offenses. If Hurts turns in more passing performances like we’ve seen lately, the losing will continue in Philadelphia.
18
Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Until their Week 3 win against the Packers, I was ready to dismiss the Falcons for the rest of the season. The return of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. reminded me what this offense can do (albeit against the Packers) with a quarterback who’s willing to push the ball downfield.
Expecting the Penix–Drake London connection to be that explosive on a consistent basis is unrealistic, but the Falcons have a chance to get themselves to the top of the NFC South if Penix can stay healthy. Their first two games of the season (against the Steelers and Panthers) were borderline unwatchable because of backup quarterbacks Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, but now teams will have to honor the pass—which opens things up for running back Bijan Robinson.
Atlanta’s schedule stiffens in October, when it will face off against the Ravens, Bears, and 49ers in consecutive weeks. If the passing game has any real juice, we’ll know by midseason—and then we might have to take them seriously in the eventual NFC playoff race.
19
Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Indianapolis was run off the field by Baltimore’s offense in Week 1 and handed away an opportunity to beat the Chiefs in Week 2, but the Colts have been better on the whole this season than their worst moments suggest. Baltimore and Kansas City are two of the 10 best teams in football, and we recently watched the Colts control their game against the Texans, another team I expected to contend for a title this year.
Indianapolis’s offense could never have matched its gangbusters start to last season, but head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job of scheming up opportunities for chunk gains. Granted, quarterback Daniel Jones needs to do a better job of taking advantage—something I hope he’ll do as he continues to get his game back post–Achilles surgery. My only major concern for this offense is receiver Alec Pierce’s ability to come back from his current heel injury and stay healthy enough to give Jones a more reliable option downfield, because it’s hard to imagine that Indianapolis will turn a corner in the passing game with receivers like Laquon Treadwell and Keenan Allen (at this stage in his career).
The good news for the Colts is that their schedule lightens up a bit in October, so they’ll have an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the Texans in the AFC South.
20
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Same ol’ Steelers. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is fifth in the league in dropbacks but 21st in yards per attempt, and it feels like Pittsburgh is deliberately wasting plays when he passes on early downs. His passer rating on first-down throws is 88.1, well below the league average of 93.4, and it’s not like the Steelers are leaning heavily on early-down play-action to take advantage of unsuspecting defenses. Pittsburgh is still lining up in shotgun and letting Rodgers cook—and somehow finding enough success elsewhere to be .500.
I believe this offense would have more explosive play potential if it leaned on its running game, as it did in its Week 3 win over the Bengals (138 rushing yards, averaging 6 yards per carry). Pittsburgh has upcoming games against the Browns, Saints, and Colts—each with a bottom-five run defense after the first month of the season. If the Steelers lose games like those—particularly if they can’t establish the run in the process—we can place a scarlet F for “fraud” on their jerseys and not waste time believing in this team.
21
Green Bay Packers (2-2)
This is the lowest I can remember placing the Packers in my power rankings, and this is the first time since quarterback Aaron Rodgers left for the Jets that my confidence in head coach Matt LaFleur has been this low. Green Bay’s offense is a wreck right now, barely functional behind one of the league’s worst-performing offensive lines. And LaFleur is drawing increasing levels of ire from the fan base after losing six of his last eight regular-season games and blowing a multi-score lead last postseason.
We’ve been covering it on The Ringer all season, but it bears repeating: There’s no play call good enough to make up for bad blocking. Green Bay wants to push the ball downfield; it’s top 10 in the league in throws of 15 or more air yards and just outside the top 10 in EPA on those throws. Which is awesome but ultimately unsustainable if your quarterback is being hit on over a fifth of those attempts. Things aren’t any better when the Packers pass the ball quickly, either—Green Bay is allowing the league’s third-highest quarterback hit rate on dropbacks of 2.5 seconds or less. And it can’t rely on the run game to hold things together; running back Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner’s exempt list after pleading no contest to charges of battery and criminal damage to property, and the Packers’ offensive line is in shambles.
For a team with a quarterback as talented as Jordan Love, I hesitate to say this season is already cooked. But they’re bringing in emergency veteran options like guards Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler, who aren’t the solutions to any offense’s problems in 2026. With upcoming games against the Bears, Cowboys, and Lions, this offense will have to score points and keep pace with some of the league’s most dynamic attacks, and what Green Bay has put on tape suggests there’s no chance that’ll happen behind this offensive line.
22
New Orleans Saints (1-3)
If there’s one thing I know about the Saints, it’s that they’ll never let their fan base feel too happy for too long. After opening the season with an exciting back-and-forth overtime loss to the Lions, they stole a win against the Ravens on the road and convinced me (and a host of fans) that last year’s scrappy Saints were ready to be legitimately competitive. Then, because it’s the Saints we’re dealing with here, they turned right back around and allowed the Raiders to score 19 unanswered points at home and sucked all the good vibes out of the Superdome.
Outside of receiver Chris Olave’s excellent production, there’s nothing I feel confident about in New Orleans this year. Quarterback Tyler Shough has toggled between messy and impressive, pushing the ball downfield on one snap and then rushing through his progression or reacting poorly to pressure and turning the ball over on the next. He’s not playing bad football on the whole, but it seems like he’s testing what he can get away with—and dealing with the growing pains that come with it.
New Orleans’s lack of trust in its run game was apparent during Las Vegas’s comeback and will be the story line I’m watching most closely going forward. They need a way to control the game that doesn’t rely so heavily on Shough in order to help mitigate his current turnover problems, especially for their October games against the Vikings and Steelers.
23
Houston Texans (0-4)
It doesn’t matter that three of Houston’s four losses were by a combined 11 points or that the Texans have caught some unlucky breaks during a difficult stretch of opponents. Their season is already on life support, and a team I expected to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender has used up all of its margin for error.
The biggest surprise of the year is how well quarterback C.J. Stroud has played in Houston’s losses. The Texans’ offensive line is still allowing too much pressure and providing no space in the running game, but Stroud has done what he can to keep things on schedule—and he’s pieced together late-game drives to give Houston chances to win. The issue has been Houston’s defense, which is struggling in coverage in a way we haven’t seen since head coach DeMeco Ryans got this franchise back on track in 2023. Through the first four weeks, Houston’s defense is allowing an 11.9 percent explosive pass rate, significantly above its previous norm (8 percent last year, 7 percent in 2023 and 2024).
The Texans have been excellent enough in that area in the past that I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. We also watched the Texans start last season 0-3 and still make the playoffs. But given how strong the rest of the AFC’s contenders have looked in comparison, I need to see some major statement wins from the Texans to believe they still have a chance in their conference.
24
Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)
Whatever my take on the Chargers would’ve been, it’s already been shouted about (and subsequently argued against) on every sports-debate forum. So let’s keep this simple—the Chargers suck right now, and it feels like everything they’ve tried has blown up in their face.
The Chargers knew they were piecing together their interior offensive line with toothpicks and glue, and they were counting on offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to scheme a way around their problems. That proved impossible through the first quarter of the season, with Los Angeles ranking 24th in yards before contact and EPA on runs. And somehow, that hasn’t even been the worst part of the offense.
Quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing the worst football of his career to start the season. On dropbacks of less than 2.5 seconds, the Chargers are bottom five in EPA, and the entire reason McDaniel was hired was to make sure the Chargers’ quick passing game would be one of the league’s most efficient. With no explosiveness in the run game and no efficiency in the quick passing game, this offense has become totally unmoored, and it's hard to tell at times whether the Chargers are prepared for their games. I’m not here to slam Herbert singularly or the football hipsters who dare to believe he’s elite, but I won’t run from the fact that he and McDaniel are the biggest reasons why this team is struggling right now. If a less physically gifted quarterback were playing this poorly, we’d be debating whether to bench him, not looking for reasons to explain away his mistakes.
Unfortunately for McDaniel and this offense, their next three opponents are the Broncos, Chiefs, and Rams, and they all have defenses with great coordinators or intimate knowledge of the scheme McDaniel runs. He and Herbert need to be at their best over this next stretch or this team could go into November in the race for the no. 1 pick in next year’s draft.
25
New York Giants (3-1)
The vibe of this Giants campaign turned upside down when quarterback Jaxson Dart suffered a season-ending knee injury. The most explosive player left on New York’s depth chart is receiver Malik Nabers, and he’s mostly been a nonfactor this season. Part of that is due to injuries, as he’s coming back from last season’s ACL tear and dislocated his shoulder in Week 2 against the Rams. But if the Giants are to right the ship and be competitive for the next chunk of the season, Nabers needs to lead the offense in opportunity and production, and backup quarterback Jameis Winston needs to feed him downfield. They’ll both have a chance to do that with games coming up against the Commanders and Saints, flawed teams in the bottom half of these rankings.
Lastly, I’ll be interested in how well this front seven plays without edge rusher Brian Burns, who’s missing the rest of the year with a torn ACL. The Giants have had a pressure rate of just 20 percent in 30 dropbacks without Burns on the field—a figure that would rank last in the league if it holds. New York has to find a way to manufacture pressure without its best defensive player, or it won’t matter whether its offense figures things out.
26
Cleveland Browns (3-1)
If you’ve watched Cleveland play this year, you know that it doesn’t matter how many games above .500 it is right now. This is not a good football team—it just happens to be escaping messy games with wins.
Still, at 3-1, this is the best start to a season this team has had since 2021, which predates Cleveland’s trade for quarterback Deshaun Watson. And in spite of some of the reputation laundering you might’ve heard during Cleveland’s Thursday night game against the Steelers, the Browns are winning in spite of his mistakes, not because of his effectiveness. Watson’s taking a ton of sacks, he has three turnovers already (and should have more), and his receivers are averaging over 6 yards after the catch per completion—which speaks to how much the design of the offense is making life easy for him.
If these late-game wins continue, we’ll have no choice but to bump Cleveland up in our rankings. But given the fact that they’ve been outgained in two of their three wins and blown out by the best team they’ve played against so far (a 34-10 loss to the Jaguars), I feel secure in betting on a little regression in the coming weeks.
27
New York Jets (1-3)
The Jets have been surprisingly competitive to start the year, much better than I expected on both sides of the ball. Poor coaching decisions cost New York a win against the Packers in Week 2, but this has otherwise been a team that’s (mostly) been level with its opponents—if not outright better. Quarterback Geno Smith got off to a hot start this season, with a passer rating of 110 through New York’s first three games. And while the Jets lost to the Bears in convincing fashion in Week 4, offensive coordinator Frank Reich has answered my concerns about whether he could adjust his usual spread-out offense to maximize Smith and fit his personnel in New York by getting Smith under center and using several tight ends to force opponents to honor the threat of the run.
Yet, I’m just a bit too skeptical to rank this team any higher than this. Their play on the field was trending in the right direction before their loss to the Bears, and I need to see them bounce back from that to restore my belief. The Raiders and Browns are both on the schedule in the next month and both are teams the Jets can beat. Toppling other overachieving teams would mark a significant step forward for the franchise, and would allow me to move the Jets up in these rankings.
28
Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
I’m grateful that we’re doing our power rankings quarterly this season, because I probably would’ve been far too congratulatory of the Cardinals’ domination of the Chargers if I’d had to rank them after Week 1. With a few more data points, we now know that neither of those teams is particularly good—and frankly, the past few weeks have revealed how bad a look it was for the Chargers that they couldn’t move the ball on Arizona’s defense.
The Seahawks and 49ers have had their way with the Cardinals, with a combined 818 yards of total offense and 67 points scored in their games. When I watch Arizona, it’s hard to even determine whether their scheme is the problem because they just don’t have enough starting caliber players to conduct a legitimate evaluation of coordinator Nick Rallis. And I don’t expect things to improve with offenses like the Rams, Lions, and Cowboys coming up in the next month.
It feels pretty certain that Arizona will have a bad defense this year no matter what, so I’d like to see head coach Mike LaFleur trust quarterback Jacoby Brissett and let him cook in the passing game—which has clearly been the most productive facet on this team. The Cardinals rank in the bottom-five of air yards on throws and are just 14th in dropbacks on first and second downs because LaFleur is trying to establish the run and manage down-and-distance. To hell with that; cut it loose and try to win games 41-40! If nothing else, it’d be great for our entertainment.
29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)
I came into the season thinking the Bucs had all the necessary pieces to right the ship and get back into the playoffs. Instead, it felt like the Week 2 loss to the Browns kind of stuck a fork in this team.
Just last month, quarterback Baker Mayfield signed an extension for $165 million through 2029, but he’s playing like one of the five worst starters in football right now and the bulk of his issues are because he’s making bad plays worse. He has the most sacks and tied for seventh-most turnovers in the NFL despite missing Week 4, and he’ll potentially miss a few more weeks while he recovers from a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. Stepping up in his absence is undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, who has the physical tools to shock defenses who don’t know how to game plan for him—and just enough questionable decision making to continue Tampa Bay’s habit of turning the ball over.
This season was a prove-it year for head coach Todd Bowles, and his offense had been doing the heavy lifting for Tampa’s success the last few years. The next month will prove telling for Bowles as he tries to rally his players without his starting QB.
30
Washington Commanders (1-3)
I know that Commanders fans won’t want to hear this after their recent win over the reigning champion Seahawks, but I know that this team is much closer to finishing the season with the top overall pick than in the postseason.
You might not be able to tell given the Commanders’ scoring this season, but the data signals that Washington’s offense is going to regress—if not bottom out entirely. The Commanders had a 7:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the first three weeks, but their explosive pass rate was bottom 10 in the league.
They’re averaging a league-worst 5.5 yards per pass attempt in the first month of the season. Their sack rate is third-lowest in the league (3 percent), all while their quarterbacks are hit about 15 percent of the time, which is close to league average. This tells me Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota (or any other quarterback to play for Washington) will either see their turnovers and sacks spike soon, or their touchdown production will stagnate.
Add in that Washington has one of the league’s least explosive rushing attacks, and I feel confident that the Commanders will end the next month looking like one of the league’s worst teams, which will potentially put Daniels on the clock as a franchise quarterback—and head coach Dan Quinn on the hot seat.
31
Miami Dolphins (0-4)
I’m not going to pretend like the Dolphins’ awful start is a surprise or worth catastrophizing over. Miami’s current losing streak is by design, with arguably the worst roster in football and a first-year head coach in Jeff Hafley who set low expectations from the beginning. This team is right back where it was in 2019, but this time there’s no cute hashtag to attach to their losing the way there was for Tua Tagovailoa.
With running back De’Von Achane now out for the season, even the most dedicated fantasy football fans have run out of reasons to watch the Dolphins. When Miami comes across your screen, it’ll probably be because of an opponent having the best game of their season or Miami coming up hilariously short against a much better defense. I’ll be watching to confirm my draft takes on rookies I liked coming into the league—like receiver Chris Bell, linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, and cornerback Chris Johnson—but I’m not even going to waste time watching the scoreboard. Nothing good will be happening for Miami there.
32
Tennessee Titans (0-4)
Ever since quarterback Cam Ward was asked why he doesn’t have the results to back up his belief that he’s a good quarterback, I’ve snapped out of my typical “give talented young passers time” stance. With a 3-18 record over the first 21 games in his career, there comes a point where it just doesn’t matter if it's Ward’s fault or the fault of a rotten offensive situation—things are just clearly not working out.
That doesn’t mean Ward hasn’t tried to improve on the issues he had as a rookie! He’s getting the ball out of his hands quickly, isn’t as wild in the pocket right now, and seems committed to trying to run his new offense as coordinator Brian Daboll has designed it. But none of that is getting Ward or this passing game anywhere, and it’s alarming how poor the results have been given that two of Tennessee’s first four opponents were the Giants and Jets. If there was ever a time to show some life, it would’ve been in this first month. Now, Tennessee’s opponents get much tougher—with multiple games coming up against teams desperate to right their seasons. Ward’s current best won’t be enough—he needs to find a new gear if he’s going to keep this season from turning into a tank job.
