Week 2 of the NFL calendar has a funny way of reminding us why one-game samples often mean nothing. Remember when the Cardinals and Giants dominated in Week 1? Reality set in for both. Remember when it seemed like the Bears were going to break the scoring record? They scored three points on Sunday and might start Case Keenum in Week 3. Remember when the Chargers looked to be in peril? Well, that one might be right.
The first month of the season remains the NFL’s testing period, and many teams will look fundamentally different in a few weeks. But that doesn’t mean you can’t find signs of hope or reasons for alarm bells if you sift deep into the data.
Week 3 brings another international game, the Rams in prime time for the third time in three weeks, and the first of three consecutive Falcons prime-time games. Sorry about that last one.
After a 5-3 record in Week 2, the bets from this column are 11-5 through two weeks. History says that hit rate won’t last, but let’s keep the good vibes rolling.
Thursday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (–5.5)
The boom-or-bust nature of the Packers offense under Matt LaFleur is leaning toward “bust” with the injuries to the offensive line and wide receiver Jayden Reed. The Green Bay OL was viewed as a weakness heading into the season, has played poorly through two weeks, has now lost right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele for the season, and will be without left guard Aaron Banks on Thursday. The Packers hit a ton of explosive plays in the first half against the Vikings in Week 1, but they’ve been barely functional in the three halves since.
Green Bay essentially has no run game right now—the run offense cratered last season and is bottom three in success rate so far in 2026. As a result, LaFleur has Jordan Love dropping back to pass at a higher rate than every other quarterback except C.J. Stroud.
It’s one thing to struggle against an über-aggressive Brian Flores–led defense and all of his absurd pressure packages. But the inability to sustain drives has left the Packers with the 30th-ranked offensive success rate through two weeks. And even though they won against the Jets, their Week 2 underlying expected points added and success rate unders were a lot worse than in Week 1.
The Packers offense needs to undergo a transformation to be effective, and I think it’ll be ugly in the interim. Especially on a short week.
The Falcons are starting Michael Penix Jr. in his first game back from a torn ACL. You can basically throw out all of the Falcons’ offensive metrics through the first two weeks because I don’t think Cooper Rush and Jack Strand are NFL-caliber quarterbacks. The question is: What is Penix at this point in his recovery? He was a below-average starter last season by adjusted EPA per play, and now he faces a defense built to prevent explosive plays. It’s a Jonathan Gannon staple to force teams to be methodical, and through two weeks, the Packers defense is in the top five at preventing explosive plays.
These two teams are trying to find their offensive identities right now, and that’s why the market dropped the total from 44.5 to 43.5. Points will be at a premium.
Bet: Under 43.5 points (–110)
The Favorite Five (6-4)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Havoc rate is one of my favorite metrics to analyze. It measures how often a defense is able to generate a negative play. Most drives are stopped with a turnover, a sack, a tackle for loss, or a pass breakup. The more you’re causing havoc, the better your defense tends to be.
In the first 14 weeks of the 2025 season, Cincinnati was dead last in havoc rate. It wasn’t until the Niners defense cratered from injuries that the Bengals crawled out of the basement. When the 2025 Bengals got stops, it was almost by accident. Now, through two weeks, Cincinnati ranks top eight in havoc rate. The upgrades the team made to the defensive line have completely transformed the defense. Dexter Lawrence II is a force multiplier, and the versatility of the rest of the pass rush makes the unit viable again.
To be clear, this isn’t an elite defense. Cincinnati’s linebackers still can’t cover anyone, and smart teams will attack them with tight ends and slot receivers. But if you can generate pressure, you can completely suffocate the Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers offense has bad metrics across the board, but it is bottom four in success rate on plays where the time to throw is less than 2.5 seconds. Pittsburgh’s offense will sink if it can’t fix that.
The Bengals’ improved defense has been widely discussed this week. But what about the Bengals offense? It has quietly struggled with down-to-down consistency. The Bengals are actually worse than the Steelers by offensive success rate when throwing in under 2.5 seconds. Cincinnati relied on big plays from its playmakers to beat Houston last week. Now, the Bengals face a Pittsburgh defense that is built to take away explosives under coordinator Patrick Graham.
Under 42.5 in this game was the first bet I made for Week 3.
Bet: Under 42.5 points (–110)
Patrick Mahomes hands the ball off to Emmett Johnson
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (+10.5)
The Dolphins defense isn’t a competitive unit right now. If we remove the fourth quarter to control for garbage time, the Dolphins’ Week 2 showing was one of the five worst performances by EPA per pass allowed since 2016. The team produced a paltry 6 percent havoc rate in Week 2.
Chop Robinson should be back to help the pass rush a little, but the secondary isn’t providing any resistance and now faces Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes had four accurate downfield passes and threw with consistent timing in Week 2, and his arm looked more lively than it’s been at any point in the past few seasons.
It’s always dangerous to sell at the theoretical floor of a football team like we’re about to do with Miami. But the Dolphins don’t look like they’re trying to win football games right now. Sure, it’s their home opener, but historically, in games lined this high, the home underdog loses any advantage from home field if they start trailing early.
I am on Chiefs –10.5 for official record-keeping purposes, but this is the kind of game where you want to get creative on the edges. Emmett Johnson should get plenty of run in the fourth quarter behind Kenneth Walker III. Kansas City’s team total should be higher than 29.5. The Chiefs don’t often chase blowouts, but they seem to be in a mood to prove just how “back” they are right now.
Bet: Chiefs –10.5 (–115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) in Rio de Janeiro
Don’t let the box score deceive you: There was nothing in the Cowboys’ defensive performance against the Commanders to suggest that they solved anything between Week 1 and Week 2. The Commanders failed on a goal-line sequence at the end of the half, had a touchdown taken off the board by a controversial call, and still scored 20 points on the road with Marcus Mariota playing half the game.
The Cowboys had no answers for containing Jayden Daniels as a runner—he had 69 yards in the first half before his injury—and now they face an explosive offense on a potentially slippery field in Rio de Janeiro. This is a different arena than the one the Packers-Eagles season opener was in two years ago, but the same concerns about turf quality have been raised prior to this game.
Quinnen Williams was supposed to be the linchpin to improve the Cowboys defense when they traded for him midseason last year. He certainly helps against the run, but his performance in Week 2 suggests he’s not at all 100 percent healthy, and he said he was “banged up” last week. Dallas wasn’t able to generate any consistent pressure without blitzing, and the coverage unit is well below average.
The Ravens also present a major step up in defensive caliber for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. The Cowboys feasted on two bad secondaries in the Giants and Commanders but did not have an efficient rushing attack in either game. They’ll need a better running game to protect their defense from getting worn down.
Baltimore’s second half was weird last week, but with Zay Flowers likely returning and Ronnie Stanley healthy enough to play, the Ravens should be able to move the ball at will.
Bet: Ravens team total over 27.5 (–106)
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (–3)
The Raiders defense has shined in the opening two weeks of the season, but I think we’ll look back at that as a product of the opponents faced more than anything else. The Chargers couldn’t get out of their own way offensively, and the Dolphins’ skill group is entirely bereft of talent. I’m mostly selling the Raiders’ defensive improvements thus far, but I am buying the Raiders’ offensive improvements in the Klint Kubiak era.
The offensive line has been massively upgraded. It’s not just that the talent is better; the scheme also helps cover for the remaining talent deficiencies. Through two weeks, the Raiders rank first in the NFL in pass-block win rate. It’s given them a much more stable offensive floor, and now Brock Bowers is returning to help this offense really threaten downfield.
The Saints now get to test the real quality of the Raiders’ defensive backfield. Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson are arguably the most underrated skill group in the league, and New Orleans has shown its offense has plenty of explosive potential over the first two weeks. Now they get to face a young and mostly untested secondary.
Bet: Over 43.5 points (–115)
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (+7)
Sam Darnold is expected back for the Seahawks in Week 3. When these two teams played last year, the Seahawks overwhelmed Jayden Daniels with their defensive pressure packages and hit constant explosive plays over the top of a flawed Washington secondary. The game was over by halftime.
Why, exactly, should I expect anything different in this year’s matchup with Marcus Mariota in for Daniels? The Seahawks have significant advantages in coaching, on special teams, and on defense. And while Brian Fleury has had slow starts in each of his first two games as Seattle’s offensive coordinator, the halftime adjustments and improvements are a green flag to me for his ability to adapt on the fly.
Daronte Jones might be able to dial up some clever pressures to rattle Darnold, but his secondary has not shown the ability to cover anyone through two weeks.
I bet against the Seahawks each of the first two weeks, and I came out 1-1 on those bets. I really don’t want to make a habit of doubting Mike Macdonald–led teams. And this is a terrible matchup on paper for Washington.
Bet: Seahawks –7 (–114)
Other Bets
Baker Mayfield
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)
This is the textbook 0-2 vs. 2-0 game where I am buying into the winless team with their backs against the wall at home. The Vikings are 2-0, and their defense continues to be a havoc-inducing machine, but the underlying profile suggests they’ve been quite fortunate to win both of their games so far.
To beat the Vikings defense, you need to have a quarterback who is consistently willing to push the ball downfield and hunt for explosive plays. While you can’t always trust Baker Mayfield as a decision-maker, he has multiple downfield playmakers, a running back who is excellent in space, and a willingness to take risks. Those risks can and will lead to a turnover or two, but as Jordan Love showed in Week 1, the Brian Flores defense can be overpowered down the field.
The Vikings offense has really struggled on early downs thus far, and running the ball against the Bucs defense will be a challenge for them. Minnesota ranks 31st in early-down success rate, and we don’t know what the Kyler Murray offense will look like if it’s stuck in obvious passing downs on the road.
If this game were two weeks ago, Tampa Bay would be favored. And I think it should still be a slight favorite at home.
Bet: Buccaneers ML (+100)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (–8.5)
The Cardinals-Curious Crew (me) took a loss last week after they no-showed the second half against the Seahawks, and now Arizona enters this game, against an elite offense, very shorthanded at corner. Will Johnson is on IR, and both Max Melton and Garrett Williams are on the injury report. This should be déjà vu for Cardinals fans, given how the defense fell apart last year once it ran out of healthy bodies.
The 49ers offense has been a dominant unit in every game not against Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks since last November. I don’t have much faith in Arizona’s defense here.
The biggest question mark in this game is still the San Francisco defense. Miami actually moved the ball well before failing in the red zone in Week 2. And the Niners defense got a massive market upgrade after their Week 1 showing against the Rams, which I still suspect had more to do with jet lag than anything else. Fred Warner looks like prime Warner again, but the 49ers still haven’t generated elite pressure up front.
As a result, the Cardinals offense should move the ball and put up points—even if it’s in garbage time while down multiple scores.
Bet: Cardinals team total over 18.5 (–110)
Games I’m Considering
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
The Texans defense was beaten vertically on downfield passes thrown by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow to elite receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the first two weeks of the season. But on a down-to-down basis, Houston’s defense looks as good as ever. The Texans have the third-highest defensive success rate over the first two weeks.
Now, the Texans travel to play Daniel Jones and the Colts. Indianapolis has been stellar when running its offense on a script so far this season, with touchdown drives to begin each of its games against the Ravens and Chiefs. But beyond that, the offense’s limitations have been on full display. Now that Alec Pierce is on IR, Laquon Treadwell is the deep playmaker. Josh Downs and Tyler Warren mostly operate underneath. Jonathan Taylor pioneers an efficient run offense, but the Colts don’t have the kind of vertical pass catcher to really take advantage of the Texans’ aggressive defense. It will be very difficult for the Colts to string together methodical drives as a result.
As much as I don’t like the matchup for the Colts, the Texans offense without Nico Collins is so limited that it’s difficult to warrant them being nearly a three-point favorite on the road. After all, two weeks ago, the Colts closed +3 at home against Baltimore.
I like the matchup for Houston’s defense, but the market has corrected in a major way.
Bet: Consider under 42.5 points
Jake Slaughter lines up
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (–7.5)
From an old-school handicapping perspective, it has been historically profitable to back an 0-2 team against a 2-0 team when the market has dramatically overreacted to an early-season performance. However, the Chargers’ injury situation leaves them in a very difficult position ahead of this cross-country road trip. Derwin James is playing with a cast. Injuries to Charlie Kolar and David Njoku leave them without a tight end who can block. The offensive line’s interior has been a disaster and also has injuries. Backup center Jake Slaughter has graded out really poorly.
The Bills defense allowed 31 points in each of the first two weeks, and Jim Leonhard is still trying to sort out personnel issues in their secondary. As a result, laying a huge number with the Bills against a capable quarterback is a difficult proposition. There’s nothing in the data that suggests the Chargers have shown any life in two weeks, but recency bias has still moved the market a bit too far.
Bet: Consider Chargers +7.5
Notes on the Rest
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+4.5)
- If Tyson Bagent is able to play, the Bears catching more than a field goal is a bet for me.
- Case Keenum has not played in an NFL game since 2023.
- The Eagles have real questions through the middle of the defense that have made them look susceptible to the run in the first two weeks.
- Philly ranks in the bottom third in EPA per rush after games against Washington and Tennessee. That should raise some flags.
- The Eagles offense has been reliant on Jalen Hurts throwing the ball on third-and-long because the early-down run game is nonexistent through two weeks.
- Great spot for Chicago at home as an underdog, but I just cannot bet Keenum here.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (–2.5)
- Two interceptions thrown by Jalen Hurts in plus territory flattered the Tennessee defense’s final statline last week. The Eagles moved the ball consistently throughout that game.
- The Giants defensive backfield has been one of the league’s worst through two weeks.
- Jameis Winston looked noticeably worse on Monday than maybe he’s ever looked in an NFL game. It’s one thing if he’s throwing interceptions, but his rate of inaccurate passes should raise alarm bells for the Giants offense.
- This line opened at Giants –3.5 and moved straight through 3.
- Titans ML or nothing for me, if you think Winston is fully cooked, the Giants could be one of the worst three teams in the league given their defense.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
- New offensive coordinator Brad Idzik has Carolina throwing the ball downfield at a much higher rate and playing much faster.
- There’s traditionally been a massive delta between the Browns home and away defensive splits—we’ll see if that continues in a post-Myles Garrett era.
- The Browns are above average in passing success rate through two weeks with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. This offense has a real pulse and has moved the ball.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (–6.5)
- We have an immovable object (Jets’ low-scoring game plan) vs. an all-time trend (Lions home-game overs) in this game.
- I’m not sure one could bet an under in a Lions home game given the current state of their secondary, but the Jets look like one of the purest under teams in the league.
- Overs in Lions home games have been a cash cow in the Dan Campbell era.
- The Jets’ play calling has been ridiculously conservative thus far, even in neutral game states.
- On paper, Garrett Wilson and AD Mitchell vs. this secondary should be a field day for the Jets offense.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
- This is the exact kind of matchup where I would look to fade a Denver defense that I think is too respected in the market because of how many bad quarterbacks it got to face last year.
- The Rams showed an ability to consistently move the ball against even the most elite defenses in the NFL in 2025—namely the Eagles and Seahawks.
- However, due to the Rams’ lack of receiver depth, the matchup is heavily reliant on the return of Puka Nacua.
- If Nacua doesn’t play and Patrick Surtain II can man up on Davante Adams, who would you trust on the Rams offense to win against man coverage?
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (–2.5)
- The line has bounced back and forth between Jags –2.5 and Jags –3 all week long, with different sharp groups publicly releasing bets on both sides.
- New England’s defensive injury concerns are significant given their general lack of depth.
- Jacksonville has maintained elite early-down offensive success rates—a staple of Liam Coen’s team since the midpoint of last season.
- I’ve felt that the market is still too high on the Jacksonville defense, which isn’t generating a lot of pressure.
- The Jags defense has not faced many passing offenses the caliber of the Patriots during their recent winning stretch, which dates back to last year’s bye week.
