In 2022, the cast of Juno reunited to present the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay and said the eight words that made every Paul Thomas Anderson fan shudder: “And the Oscar goes to Kenneth Branagh, Belfast.” At that moment, PTA’s fate seemed sealed: He’s never gonna get an Oscar.
Four years later, that finally seems likely to change. One Battle After Another has netted Anderson another three nominations, and he’s projected to win at least one and at best all three, potentially springing into an elite crew of auteurs who’ve won for producing, directing, and writing all in one night. This would put an end to his status as one of the Academy Awards’ biggest losers, having been nominated 11 times prior, to no avail.
It’s not like he hasn’t been in good company; Alfred Hitchcock, Stanley Kubrick, and David Lynch never won competitive Oscars. But given the four decades he’s now been in the game and the sheer volume of opportunity the Academy has had to reward him in multiple categories over the years, it is wild that the man behind such modern classics as Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, The Master, and Phantom Thread is a historic Academy also-ran. Before his probable Oscar coronation, now’s as good a time as any to take a look back at Anderson’s history at the Academy Awards: the losses, the close calls, and the races that somehow didn’t go his way.
1998
The Nomination: Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
- As Good As It Gets (Mark Andrus and James L. Brooks)
- Boogie Nights (Paul Thomas Anderson)
- Deconstructing Harry (Woody Allen)
- The Full Monty (Simon Beaufoy)
- Good Will Hunting (Matt Damon and Ben Affleck)
What won: Good Will Hunting
What should’ve won: Boogie Nights
PTA came onto the scene in 1996 with Hard Eight, but much like his contemporary Quentin Tarantino, he wouldn’t be welcomed into the Oscar conversation until his second film, Boogie Nights, a sprawling epic about porn, found family, and how stressful it is when Alfred Molina starts throwing firecrackers. Tarantino had better luck with his sophomore effort, Pulp Fiction, clinching this same award back in 1995. Unfortunately for Anderson, there was just no beating those wacky kids from Boston, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, whose youthful charm offensive steamrolled the season with wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards before they were handed their Oscars by veteran power couple Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau. Sidebar: Earlier in the night, Boogie Nights’ Burt Reynolds also lost to Good Will Hunting’s Robin Williams. He looked pissed.
2000
The Nomination: Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
- American Beauty (Alan Ball)
- Being John Malkovich (Charlie Kaufman)
- Magnolia (Paul Thomas Anderson)
- The Sixth Sense (M. Night Shyamalan)
- Topsy-Turvy (Mike Leigh)
What won: American Beauty
What should’ve won: Being John Malkovich
Sometimes, there’s just so much beauty in the world that the Academy has no choice but to award the worst nominee. 1999 was a notoriously stacked year in film with a notoriously strange batch of Oscar winners (lookin’ at you, The Cider House Rules). But it’s still kind of wild to review this exceptional list of nominees and see that voters went with the one where a high school stoner waxes philosophical about a floating plastic bag. Any of these other contenders would’ve been worthy winners, including Magnolia, which saw Anderson parlay the success of Boogie Nights into a three-plus-hour Altman-esque mosaic before he turned 30. It’s an overwrought hurricane of a movie, constantly threatening to cave in on itself, and it’s (in PTA’s own words) “way too fucking long.” Yet there’s an undeniable chutzpah to its emotional ambition, not to mention that it features some of the best performances in Anderson’s filmography (Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tom Cruise, Cleo King looking at a dead body and screaming, “That ain’t mine!”). On the telecast, Paul gives a punky little expression of mock surprise when he loses to Alan Ball. It made sense at the time, but at the end of the day, this probably should’ve gone to Charlie Kaufman. “Malkovich Malkovich Malkovich” didn’t write itself.
2008
The Nomination: Best Picture
The nominees:
- Atonement
- Juno
- Michael Clayton
- No Country for Old Men
- There Will Be Blood
What won: No Country for Old Men
What should’ve won: There Will Be Blood
The Oscars would take a break from Anderson and 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love before giving him his first Best Picture nomination, for his 2007 adaptation of the Upton Sinclar novel Oil! 2007 is often cited as the Film Bro Year to End All Film Bro Years, and honestly, if you swap Atonement out for Zodiac, you’ve got a pretty perfect lineup for that demo. But while people seem to remember this as the There Will Be Blood vs. No Country for Old Men year, PTA didn't really make a dent across the categories he was nominated in. Blood would get wins for Daniel Day-Lewis’s all-timer performance in Best Actor and Robert Elswit’s cinematography, but No Country’s campaign was a long-overdue coronation for the Coen brothers, with the Academy (and most of the other ceremonies) handing them the prizes for Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. It’s tough to argue against—this movie face-off was a bit of a win-win situation. Although if I were playing time traveler, I’d probably swipe The English Patient’s Best Picture win in 1997 and give it to the Coens for Fargo. Maybe that’d open the door for some PTA wins for Blood. Alternatively, maybe we could’ve saved the Coens’ lifetime achievement wins for Inside Llewyn Davis in 2014? But I don’t know, I’m not trying to Back to the Future this too hard.
The Nomination: Best Director
The nominees:
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Julian Schnabel)
- Juno (Jason Reitman)
- Michael Clayton (Tony Gilroy)
- No Country for Old Men (Joel and Ethan Coen)
- There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson)
What won: No Country for Old Men
What should’ve won: There Will Be Blood
Anderson would win the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and National Society of Film Critics prizes for Best Director this year, before this became another category where the Academy honored the Coens. One of the only major awards shows to break ranks from the Coen sweep in this category was the Golden Globes, which gave this award to Julian Schnabel (sure!). Still, of all PTA’s Oscar losses, this is probably the one that stings the most, not because of the ultimate victors but because Anderson wasn’t recognized for his ability to conjure a movie titanic enough to address capitalism, industry, and religion and contain that DDL performance. Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg are on record that between their filmographies and PTA’s, There Will Be Blood is the most John Ford movie any of them ever made. Ford won four Best Director Oscars; Anderson still has none.
The Nomination: Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
- Atonement (Christopher Hampton)
- Away From Her (Sarah Polley)
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Ronald Harwood)
- No Country for Old Men (Joel and Ethan Coen)
- There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson)
What won: No Country for Old Men
What should’ve won: No Country for Old Men
Best Adapted was probably the award that the Coens had most locked up from the jump. Anderson didn’t win a single prize all season for his writing, despite the great depths he plumbed in the first 150 pages of Sinclair’s novel. By contrast, Ethan Coen remarked of the writing process for No Country for Old Men: “One of us types into the computer while the other holds the spine of the book flat.” Typical self-deprecation on their part—ultimately, the intentionality and focus of their adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s novel are inextricable from that movie’s greatness. They can keep this one.
2015
The Nomination: Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
- American Sniper (Jason Hall)
- The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
- Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
- The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
- Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
What won: The Imitation Game
What should’ve won: Inherent Vice
It’s worth noting that in between There Will Be Blood and Inherent Vice, Anderson made The Master, which somehow netted only three acting nominations at the 2013 Oscars. That means it got nothing for Jonny Greenwood’s brilliantly uneasy score, Mihai Mălaimare’s elemental cinematography, or the film’s writing or direction. While it’s tough to imagine today’s iteration of the directing branch snubbing Anderson’s work on his arguable masterpiece in favor of someone like David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, PTA would have to wait a full seven years before his next nomination: a bit of a surprise nod for his first adaptation of a Thomas Pynchon novel, Inherent Vice. There’s really no scenario where this ever stood a chance; the adaptation’s just about the most impenetrable thing ever (complimentary). Yet the other nominees don’t inspire a ton of passion (Imitation Game, we definitely do not still talk about you). I suppose that the other “cool” pick here would be Whiplash, depending on how you feel about that movie. Even though it was an original piece of writing, it wound up in this category on a technicality: It was “based” on a short film.
2018
The Nomination: Best Picture
The nominees:
- Call Me by Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What won: The Shape of Water
What should’ve won: Phantom Thread
Ask a certain brand of die-hard film obsessive what the best movie of 2017 was, and they’ll probably say Phantom Thread, even in an Oscar year as strong as this. Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, and Lady Bird are all great films that could’ve borne the title of Best Picture and still aged into the timeless works they remain nearly 10 years on. But there’s something so lingering, romantic, and bitchily hysterical about PTA’s poisoned take on Merchant-Ivory and “I love my wife” cinema. At the time, though, it was a huge shocker on Oscar nomination morning that it even got into this category. It was assumed that the film would get acknowledgments for Daniel Day-Lewis’s performance, for Mark Bridges’s costume design (which would win), and for Jonny Greenwood’s score (which should’ve won). That it also wound up in the Best Picture race was the pleasant surprise of the season, even if it never had a chance of winning. This was essentially a (pretty cursed) race between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water, with some pundits entertaining the possibility of a Best Picture win for Get Out or Lady Bird. Either of those would’ve been far better victors than Shape, but Phantom Thread deserved consideration as well and, if we’re being really serious, the win.
The Nomination: Best Director
The nominees:
- Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
- Get Out (Jordan Peele)
- Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
- Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
- The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)
What won: The Shape of Water
What should’ve won: Dunkirk
PTA didn’t get a single major nomination in the directing category all season, making his appearance here one of the biggest Oscar nomination surprises in recent memory. Looking back, it’s clear that this was the beginning of his elder statesman period in the Academy’s eyes; since then, he’s gotten nods in this category for every film he’s made. There was, of course, no chance that he’d win it; this was Guillermo’s year from beginning to end, although I’d argue that this was the time for Nolan’s coronation. Not only is Dunkirk one of the most immaculately directed films of the century, but giving him the win here also would’ve freed the Academy up to potentially honor Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest in the Oppenheimer year.
2022
The Nomination: Best Picture
The nominees:
- Belfast
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
What won: CODA
What should’ve won: Drive My Car
People talk a lot about the 2021 COVID Oscars as an “asterisk” year for the Academy, but the further we get from 2022, the weirder that ceremony also looks. It’s not just the Slap, or that the perfectly sweet but ultimately unworthy-of-Best-Picture CODA wound up winning every category it was nominated for, the first movie to do so since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. It’s that none of these films really feel like winners. Critics went hard for Drive My Car, which would probably be my pick, and Licorice Pizza would definitely be up there in my personal ranking of these films. But despite the movie’s ardent defenders, it was never really in contention. Unending age-gap discourse and bad-faith readings of its central dynamic plagued it throughout the entirety of the season, until it wound up with only three nominations. It’s already aged very well, both as the warmest entry in PTA’s filmography and as a film with a lot more on its mind than its naysayers care to admit.
The Nomination: Best Director
The nominees:
- Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
- Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
- Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
- The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
- West Side Story (Steven Spielberg)
What won: The Power of the Dog
What should’ve won: Drive My Car
Nobody else was ever winning this except for Jane Campion, even after she put her foot in her mouth with some weird comments about Venus and Serena Williams at the Critics Choice Awards (again, weird year). It’s tough to say who was second place: Spielberg? Branagh? It certainly wasn’t Anderson, though, whose continued elder statesman period made him a staple of this category throughout the season even though he won this award only at the National Board of Review.
The Nomination: Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
- Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
- Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay)
- King Richard (Zach Baylin)
- Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
- The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier)
What won: Belfast
What should’ve won: Licorice Pizza
Of all PTA’s 11 nominations, this was, bizarrely, the one he’d come closest to winning. Licorice Pizza’s screenplay won only the BAFTA this year, and Belfast would take the Globe and Critics Choice award before clinching the Oscar. But the real canary in the coal mine predicting PTA’s defeat here was when Don’t Look Up beat Licorice Pizza at the Writers Guild Awards. Ultimately, this feels like a case of the Academy holding out for something better. Even the most ardent “Licky Peets” fan would have to concede that this would have been a letdown Oscar coronation for the guy who made Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, The Master, and Phantom Thread. But you can’t deny that the (maybe too patient) Academy has waited long enough to end up in the right place: It’s been one battle after another for PTA at the Oscars, but he’s about to win the war … probably.