If you’re feeling like the NBA rumor mill is airing only reruns this season, you’re not alone. The trade deadline is just days away, yet we’re still asking the same question we’ve been endlessly pondering since last spring: Will the Milwaukee Bucks trade Giannis Antetokounmpo?
If that question induces a groan, it’s very understandable, because that uncertainty is holding up the entire league as teams wait for the Bucks (or, cough, Giannis) to declare their intentions before they make any significant moves ahead of the February 5 trade deadline. Will Milwaukee move him before next Thursday, or will it wait until the summer? The answer could have far-reaching ripple effects.
Complicating things is Giannis’s latest calf injury, which will reportedly sideline him for four to six weeks. But a minor injury is unlikely to get in the way of a massive blockbuster. Milwaukee is currently 18-26, sitting outside the play-in and possibly considering a tank given Giannis’s injury. Should the Bucks cut the cord now? Wait until this summer? Or is there still a chance that somehow, someway they can convince their superstar to stay?
With the deadline rapidly approaching, The Ringer paneled its NBA staff to answer the five biggest questions surrounding the Giannis saga. Who should trade for him? Who actually will? And what’s the Bucks’ dream scenario? Let’s dive in.
Would you rather be the team trading for or trading away Giannis?
Danny Chau: Trading for. I think we’re all beyond exhausted by the scuttlebutt and the minor psychodrama surrounding whether Antetokounmpo is being valiantly faithful to the only NBA franchise he’s ever known or passive-aggressive to the very brink of self-sabotage—but we are not at the point of discounting Antetokounmpo as a player. He’s still, at worst, a top-five superstar when he’s on the floor. Are his best days behind him? Maybe. But even on just a pretty good day, Giannis is a game-changing presence on both ends of the floor. Even with (or especially because of) the injury concerns, if a team trades for Giannis, it will almost assuredly be the winner of the deal.
Michael Pina: Trading away. If my team is hopeless and the return I’d be getting is a massive haul of draft picks, at least one true blue-chip prospect, and financial flexibility, count me as someone who’d rather trade Antetokounmpo away. He’s obviously still a phenomenal MVP candidate, but chronic health issues, a rigid skill set, and a looming supermax contract that will make building a champion around him more difficult than it probably should be are all reasons the team that has Antetokounmpo at this stage of his career may inevitably find itself in a sticky situation. He’s 31 years old, can’t shoot or play center on a full-time basis, keeps suffering noncontact injuries, and is about to be one of the most expensive players in the league. Again, Giannis is a top-five player, but all those factors make you wonder how much longer he’ll be viewed that way.
Howard Beck: Trading for. The fact that we’re even asking and answering this question is … wild. But also understandable, given Giannis’s increasingly frequent soft-tissue injuries and his increasingly sour demeanor. That said, I’d absolutely, positively want to be the team acquiring Giannis. He’s still a perennial MVP candidate. He’s still in his prime. He can anchor a contender for at least another five years. His demeanor will presumably improve with a better roster. Any franchise should be thrilled to have him. Meanwhile, the Bucks will be irrelevant the moment he’s gone.
Rob Mahoney: Trading for. Look, it’s clearly reasonable to have some reservations in any trade of this magnitude—but sometimes you just have to Euro-step around all doubt and dunk those reservations into oblivion. This is Giannis Antetokounmpo, a champion and an all-time great, in the midst of the most efficient season of his career. I’m not saying that will last forever or that his injuries, past and present, aren’t a factor worth considering. Just that this is the time to embrace the franchise-changing possibility and get out of your own way.
Logan Murdock: Trading for. Is this a trick question?! Of course I’d rather be the team that trades for Giannis. If I were a GM, my goal would be to build a contender. If I were a fan, I’d want to root for a team that has a generational talent on its roster. And if I were a prominent player on the team acquiring Giannis, I’d want to play alongside one of the greatest to ever do it. Picks are great, but in this case, I’m trying to win a chip in the fastest way possible, and Giannis provides that chance. Plus, the team giving Giannis away will have to live a life without him for the rest of eternity. That doesn’t sound fun, now, does it?
Tyler Parker: Trading for. No matter how you look at it, trading Giannis away, regardless of the return, will be a massive loss for the Bucks. For what he’s meant to that city, that organization, the entire state of Wisconsin. Now, they wouldn’t have to employ Thanasis anymore, so at least that opens up a roster spot for someone who might actually do some developing. But trading the face of your franchise—a two-time MVP who brought you your first title in 50 years—that can only sting. Yes, he has started getting hurt a lot. Yes, they would no longer be held hostage by the what-if-he-asks-out conversations that have become the norm these past several years. And yes, they would not have to stretch themselves so thin asset-wise trying to find him a viable running mate. But they would be saying goodbye to Greek Godzilla, the most important player in the history of the franchise, a Milwaukee god. When you trade someone with those bona fides, you’re not winning the would-you-rather.
Isaac Levy-Rubinett: Trading for. Giannis is a top-three player who has won at the absolute highest level. Nobody wants to be the team that mortgages its entire future for a north-of-30 star, but I suspect that means Giannis will be gettable for less than, say, the Suns gave up for Kevin Durant in 2023. And as much optimism as a rebuild can bring, there’s proof all over the league—in Brooklyn, Utah, and Washington—that starting from scratch isn’t always a panacea.
Which team should ultimately trade for Giannis?
Mahoney: The Cavaliers. It would take a dramatic reimagining of their roster, but if the Giannis situation drags into the summer, the Cavs can—and should—be real players in this sweepstakes. A package built around Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and some distant draft capital (Cleveland will be able to trade two future firsts and two swaps as of this summer) could be worthwhile for Milwaukee. Allen could be a longtime Buck or attractive to other teams in a follow-up deal. Garland isn’t having his best season but still has so much playmaking talent to believe in. Putting together a deal now is more or less impossible given the Cavs’ apron status, but the more flexible rules and finances of the offseason would make a huge swing possible.
Beck: The Hawks. Atlanta is still the most interesting, fun, plausible trade partner. The Hawks have a rapidly blossoming young talent (Jalen Johnson) to serve as Giannis’s costar. They have a wealth of high-level role players to round out the lineup. And they have one of the greatest trade chips to offer—an unprotected first-round pick from either New Orleans or Milwaukee that could easily land in the top three this June. The Hawks could become instant contenders in the East. The Bucks could land a blue-chip prospect to build around, in addition to whatever players arrive in the trade for salary-matching purposes. That’s a pretty good outcome for both parties.
Murdock: The Knicks. They’ve already gone all in, trading all of their picks to build a roster that can win now, and even that method seems to be reaching its limit with the roster’s current construction. But a deal with the Knicks doesn’t necessarily make sense for a team looking to rebuild. Why would the Bucks make a trade in which they’re not getting a haul of picks? (Love you, KAT, but in the words of K.Dot, “It’s not ENOUGH!”) In any case, a move to New York would finally deliver the star that Knicks fans have been clamoring for since Patrick Ewing, and it would give Giannis a chance to win a title under the brightest lights possible. Plus, a superstar of the Greek Freak’s stature under orange and blue skies would be a ratings bonanza for a league that thirsts for it.
Parker: The Knicks. The KAT experiment is floundering, dying on the vine. A change is needed. If Giannis does in fact want to be in New York, the Knicks should make the move. Were things going swimmingly in their first year under Mike Brown, I’d say stand pat and bet on the continuity. But the chemistry has gotten rocky. If the Bucks can be talked into it and want to send Giannis somewhere he wants to go, maybe we’ll see Antetokounmpo for KAT, plus pick swaps in 2026, 2030, and 2032.
Dyson Daniels goes for a steal against Giannis
Pina: The Magic. Given the financial cost for a disappointing team that was expected to win at the highest level, if Orlando fails to win a playoff series this year, it’ll instantly become one of the most desperate teams in the league. That’s the bad news for the Magic. The good news is that they can dramatically pivot out of it by offering 23-year-old Paolo Banchero to the Milwaukee Bucks and—assuming Giannis is cool spending the rest of his career in Central Florida—exchange a polarizing young star for a two-time MVP who’d walk onto a roster that can do a pretty good job of complementing him on both sides of the ball.
Chau: The Warriors. The Dubs are in such a damned if they do, damned if they don’t situation that making a second consecutive swing for a star at the deadline doesn’t seem like the worst option in the world. Even if we put Jimmy Butler’s ACL tear aside, the team is hamstrung by the second apron, which would mean that it could be stripped down to purely essential parts just by trying to establish balance in a trade proposal—I’d bet even the Picasso of the trade machine would wind up producing more of a Jackson Pollock. The Warriors would probably need a quarter of the league to jump into the festivities just to make a trade work logistically. But that might be where the team is. There is barely a tomorrow in Golden State.
Levy-Rubinett: The Knicks. The defensive limitations of Jalen Brunson and Towns are ultimately too damaging, and the offensive two-man game just hasn’t popped in the way New York’s front office must have hoped it would. Perhaps that’s because Brunson’s gifts are best utilized in isolation rather than when he’s used as a pick-and-roll distributor—and you can actually say the same about Giannis. If Brunson and KAT aren’t going to amplify each other, why not fortify your defense and just let Brunson and Giannis take turns battering their way through their opponents and scoring over, around, and through anybody who tries to stand in their way? Ultimately, the Knicks have less to offer Milwaukee than many other young, draft-pick-laden teams do. But if Giannis puts his thumb on the scale and forces his way to New York over the summer, a package of Towns and Mikal Bridges could either keep the Bucks afloat or be flipped into a nice collection of longer-term assets, like the Trail Blazers did with Jrue Holiday a couple of summers ago.
Which team will actually trade for Giannis (and when)?
Parker: The Heat. Pat Riley likes whales and rings, and the Heat are not going anywhere of consequence as currently constructed. A front line of Bam and Giannis could be absolute hell. That’s two basketball Bunyans wearing people out. Total bruisers. Miami has a combination of young players and contracts that might be enough to make it happen. Any picks? No, absolutely not. Not this decade. But maybe Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Andrew Wiggins, and a first-rounder in 2030 or 2032 would be enough? If the Heat are going to do it, they’ll do it before the deadline this year. Gucci Pat ain’t getting any younger, and he’s never been one for patience.
Beck: The Hawks. And probably in June, in conjunction with the draft. But we can’t rule out the Knicks, given all the factors in play here. Giannis has an established affinity for New York. And because he has just one year left on his contract, he can influence negotiations by refusing to re-sign with any franchise that doesn’t appeal to him. The Knicks don’t have the draft capital or young players that the Bucks would surely want, but they do have some valuable vets whom the Bucks could either keep or flip for picks. And it’s worth noting that the Bucks and Knicks reportedly had conceptual talks about a Giannis trade last summer.
Levy-Rubinett: The Knicks. Over the summer. Because when the Knicks fall short in the playoffs and Giannis decides that he wants to be in New York, the tectonic plates of the NBA will dramatically shift to make it happen.
Pina: The Magic. Giannis has a say here. His contract gives him leverage in the proceedings; if he doesn’t want to play for a team that wants to acquire him, said team would be stupid to offer anything valuable to the Bucks. I think that he can be sold on the Magic, though! They’re young, athletic, talented, located in the Eastern Conference, and, in theory, built to contend for a championship the moment his name is added to their roster. There’s some familiarity there, too: Antetokounmpo was drafted by John Hammond, a former GM for the Bucks who now works in Orlando’s front office. This would fall apart if Banchero—who can’t functionally be traded until his extension kicks in this summer—leads the Magic to the conference finals. But if not, Banchero’s a fascinating trade chip who epitomizes exactly what Milwaukee’s front office should want as it turns the page and starts a new chapter for its franchise.
Chau: The Hawks. I’m still not convinced that the Bucks would trade Giannis without an explicit demand from the man himself. But if it’s happening, it’s happening for a valuable assortment of picks. If a trade happens at the deadline or at the draft, I imagine it’d be with Atlanta, which could become an instant contender with Giannis in the fold.
Mahoney: The Heat. I can’t help but feel that after all the drawn-out, will-they-won’t-they gesturing of the past few years, we’re just gonna end up with the simplest possible trade machine outcomes. Forget the well-considered alternatives; there’s no place for our trade machine musings when, time and time again, superstars in Giannis’s position find their way to markets like Miami. A partnership between Antetokounmpo and Erik Spoelstra could be really special—pure, undeniable power in concert with all of Miami’s adaptability. A trade would probably have to wait until the offseason, given all the moving parts, but Herro, Ware, Nikola Jovic (de–poison pilled after his extension kicks in this summer), two future firsts, and another prospect of Milwaukee’s choice seems like enough to at least keep the Bucks on the line.
Murdock: The Grizzlies. What better way to flip Ja Morant and keep your contending window open than to trade for the Greek Freak? Memphis has a treasure trove of picks from Orlando and doesn’t necessarily have to trade all of them to Milwaukee based on market trends. Tennessee loves Ja, but I bet that it’d be able to stomach this deal.
What’s the Milwaukee Bucks’ dream scenario?
Pina: Since the Atlanta Hawks almost definitely won’t give up Johnson or their coveted first-round pick swap, the best-case scenario would happen if either the Houston Rockets or San Antonio Spurs flame out of the playoffs and grow more antsy than they should be in July. Both teams are technically able to offer Milwaukee an incredible package filled with several draft picks and young potential All-Stars. Could Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Stephon Castle, or Dylan Harper be wearing a Bucks jersey next season? That would be a wild turn of events that the Spurs or Rockets would probably come to regret, but the Bucks would be pretty pumped.
Levy-Rubinett: Giannis’s most recent injury squashed any final hope that the Bucks could salvage this season. The dream scenario now has to be a slide down the standings and great fortune on lottery night. Would adding AJ Dybantsa in the draft convince Giannis to sign a long-term extension with the Bucks? And more to the point, with apologies to Bucks fans, would trading Cameron Boozer to Utah for Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler do the trick?
Beck: The Bucks’ dreamiest scenario is landing another superstar to play alongside Giannis and thus convincing him to stay in Milwaukee for the long term. But that’s closer to “hopeless fantasy” than dream. If they’re trading him, the ideal return is a boatload of unprotected draft picks and young players with star potential. But given the recent history of “all-in” trades that have gone bust, along with the tightening market, the Bucks might have to settle for a much more modest package.
Chau: The dream scenario would be something like the inverse of the Mavericks situation last year: Rather than disrupting the natural order of basketball by trading away a franchise icon, the Bucks front office is rewarded in the draft for standing by its man. The Bucks keep Giannis out for the rest of the season, allowing him to fully rehabilitate his calf. Then, they hit on a one-in-a-million outcome, with both the Milwaukee and New Orleans picks landing in the top three. Atlanta acquires the better of the two picks, but still, Milwaukee has a top-three pick! Elite prospect Darryn Peterson continues to flash superstar potential, but his ongoing injury concerns nudge the first two drafters on the board to opt for super-productive talents in Cameron Boozer and Dybantsa. The Bucks draft Peterson, and he lives up to his lofty stylistic comparisons immediately, creating a modern Shaq-Kobe dynamic with a rejuvenated Giannis, a quarter century later.
Murdock: That the Spurs, Hawks, Nets, or Rockets will get so thirsty for star power that they’ll trade all their picks and sacrifice their organizational futures to subsidize the Bucks for the next five years. Maybe that’s unlikely, but that’s the dream. The OKC blueprint should be the motto for any team going forward: Draft smart, and hope you can get a star to change the trajectory of your franchise at a cheap price. But Giannis is Giannis, so trading all of that for him could work out.
AJ Dybantsa swings from the rim after dunking against the Arizona Wildcats
Mahoney: That there's enough disappointment to go around in the playoffs and enough flexibility to be had in the offseason to get a real bidding war going. Part of the problem with Giannis never being officially on the market is that we don't have reliable benchmarks for what teams are willing to offer. The details of some overtures are out there, but those all exist in a vacuum; what happens when some desperation in the market meets real demand? If there's one thing the Bucks can take away from the NBA's last superstar trade (and Nico Harrison's cautionary tale), it's that keeping the bidding closed amounts to self-sabotage.
Parker: I’m not sure there’s anything but nightmares on the immediate horizon for the Bucks. If we’re talking dreams, though, Castle and Harper? A handful of pick swaps the Spurs currently have, plus that unprotected 2027 Hawks first-rounder? I’d be shocked if the Spurs did it (and I don’t think they should), but you asked for Milwaukee’s dreams.
If not Giannis, who will be the biggest name dealt before the deadline?
Beck: Michael Porter Jr. MPJ seems like a good bet in the best supporting actor category. He’s putting up career-high numbers (albeit on a bad team) with decent efficiency and might make the All-Star team for the first time. Several playoff teams, including the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Lakers, could use his shooting and rebounding. And Porter’s contract, while a tad bloated, has just one full season left after this one (at $40.8 million). The Nets, who are mired in a multiyear rebuild, would be wise to sell high on him now.
Levy-Rubinett: Anthony Davis. His status for the remainder of the season is up in the air, but NBA teams are increasingly using trades as a sort of pre-agency. If any teams view AD as the missing piece for next season, now is the time to strike.
Murdock: Morant. His value is at an all-time low at the moment, but the Kings are always in play for a player like Morant, who’d instantly put butts in seats at Golden 1 and give Vivek Ranadive the impression that his team is relevant leaguewide, even though Sacramento will likely be a perpetual sub-40-win team no matter what.
Parker: Morant. I would like to see him bury the hatchet with the Grizz and get the vibes going back in the right direction, but things seem pretty far gone at this point. He’s currently out at least three weeks with a UCL sprain in his left elbow, but guys have been traded with worse injuries. A change of scenery would do him some good, and the Grizz can get on with the youth movement.
Chau: Markkanen. After years of trade rumors, this is where the rubber meets the road. Markkanen has put up huge numbers while maintaining solid efficiency on the highest usage of his career—he’s a legitimate star. There are buyers on the market either desperate enough to make a massive swing or close enough to their goals to make a calculated win-now gamble. The Jazz are still in their talent and asset accumulation phase, which is growing increasingly at odds with Markkanen turning 29 this May. There are bigger names being mentioned, but Markkanen might be the cleanest immediate boost for a contending team, given injury and reputational red flags studded across the market.
Mahoney: Porter. Maybe I'm not giving the chaos of a burbling trade market enough credit, but I wouldn't be surprised if the wildest trade ideas are shelved until the summer and we see a few lower-level stars shuffled around instead. It's amazing that Porter now fits that bill—well above the spacing role he played in Denver, but not beyond a slightly more expansive supporting role on a different winning team. It's not easy to throw together $40 million or so in stray salary, but with the way Porter has played this season, he's worth the trouble. And the Nets are so far behind in their team building that even a 27-year-old just entering his prime feels a bit ahead of their timeline.
Pina: Probably Trae Young, unfortunately. Morant, Davis, and Giannis are all injured, highly paid, and unlikely to be dealt. If Young doesn’t count, may I interest you in Bennedict Mathurin, Ayo Dosunmu, Daniel Gafford, or Saddiq Bey?
