Welcome to Statue Season! Each week leading up to the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, we’ll be checking in on the closest races, the winningest narratives, and the plain old movie magic that will decide who’s taking home the gold on March 15. This week, we’re assessing this year’s tightest Oscar races after the nominations were unveiled Thursday.
We made it to Oscar nominations day! For some, that means Oscar season is just getting started, and for others—you know, those who’ve worn out their AMC A-List memberships and woken up at 5:30 a.m. PT to watch the nominees announced live—it’s, like, three-quarters of the way done. (You can guess which side I’m on.) Either way, there’s a little less than two months to go before we’re back in Hollywood for the 98th Academy Awards. That means it’s time to pay our respects to the campaigns that didn’t quite make the leap (Adam Sandler, I still believe that Oscar is coming one day)—but also, we can finally start making real predictions for how the heck these races are going to turn out.
After a number of snubs and surprises in Thursday’s announcement, many categories are still up in the air. How many times will the momentum shift between Sinners and One Battle After Another? And what’s going on with Best Supporting Actor? Wait, is that … F1?? I scoured the nominations and narrowed them down to the seven tightest categories—here’s a breakdown of how those hotly contested races might go down.
1. Best Picture
And the nominees are: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
But what can actually win? Cinephiles woke up to a couple of surprises in the Oscars’ top category on Thursday morning. Bugonia, which has spent the majority of awards season on the fringes after underperforming at the box office, ended up sneaking into the Best Picture slate. We all knew director Yorgos Lanthimos had fans in the Academy, but getting the nod for what was essentially a flop really cements him as a perennial contender. (This nomination also probably came at the cost of Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or–winning It Was Just an Accident.) But even more surprising was the nomination for F1: The Movie, the Brad Pitt–helmed Formula One racing drama. (Genuine question: Has there ever been a Best Picture nominee that had “The Movie” in its title before?) F1 was a big box office success, but the film wasn’t taken seriously as a Best Picture contender until it surged over the past month as the other contenders for what’s become the annual blockbuster slot (Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash) fell out of the race.
All that said, while those surprises shook up the nomination slate, the front-runners to win the trophy remain unchanged: This is a two-horse race between Sinners and One Battle After Another. As you’ve probably heard, Sinners garnered a record-setting 16 nominations, and One Battle followed close behind with 13. While earning the most nominations at an Oscar ceremony doesn’t always translate to a Best Picture win—see: Emilia Pérez, La La Land, Joker, and a multitude of other films that peaked early—it’s hard to look at that crooked number and not think that Sinners has taken the lead. Prognosticators predicted that Sinners would lead the nominees, and it still managed to earn unexpected nods: Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo were (welcome) surprises in the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories, respectively. Meanwhile, One Battle fell short in one category: Many predicted Chase Infiniti would earn a Best Actress nod, but she was snubbed in favor of Song Sung Blue’s Kate Hudson. (And surely everyone agrees with that decision.) Those upsets could signal that the Academy is even higher on Sinners than we thought, and slightly lower on One Battle. (Also on the table: Sinners and One Battle splitting Best Picture and Best Director.)
Still, One Battle has had a ton of success on the awards circuit already—it took home the top honors from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, Gothams, and National Board of Review—while Sinners has yet to sink its teeth into a major Best Picture–equivalent award. There are plenty of Oscar precursor awards to come—the Producers Guild Awards are the most accurate Best Picture predictors, so keep an eye on who wins the top prize there at the end of February—but this year’s Best Picture race is shaping up to be a big-budget showdown for the ages.
2. Best Actor
And the nominees are: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
But who can actually win? Can we take a second to acknowledge that this is the best Best Actor slate in literal decades? Say what you want about the inclusion of F1 in the Best Picture race or Avatar: Fire and Ash in Best Costume Design, but this Best Actor pool is absolutely stacked—the Academy truly got it right here.
I’ve previously compared Timmy vs. Leo to the Drake Maye vs. Matthew Stafford MVP race, and I still believe those are the top two contenders. And after winning the Golden Globe and the CCA, Chalamet is currently in the lead (despite the Academy’s aversion to men under 35). DiCaprio won the NBR, but he has won an Oscar before—it’s pretty hard to win a second time!—and the Academy could be ready to anoint Chalamet, who’s already collected three Best Actor nominations at age 30.
But is it possible for a Josh Allen or a Christian McCaffrey to come along and usurp the trophy? (OK, the analogy is starting to break down.) I swear this isn’t a cop-out—I can genuinely see a universe where the Academy decides it still isn’t Chalamet’s time and that Leo’s moment has passed and any one of the three other nominees emerges. After seeing the full slate of nominations, my pick to potentially ascend is Sinners’ Michael B. Jordan. The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura is enticing—his understated performance in the Brazilian political thriller is more than worthy of the accolade—and Blue Moon’s Ethan Hawke has long been a dark horse contender as a beloved actor who’s never won an Oscar before. But Jordan’s thus-far quiet campaign has a lot going for it. For one, it’s a dual role with two distinct personalities on which the entire film is hinged—it’s impressive stuff! Jordan’s was the only 2025 role featured on our list of the 21st century’s best movie performances for a reason.
But also, the Academy’s voters have made their sensibilities clear with the abundance of nominations for Sinners: They are big fans of Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick, and especially its performances—they gave the film nods in three out of four acting categories. If the film continues to gain momentum, it’s not hard to envision it rising in categories where it’s not currently seen as a favorite. That would be similar to what happened at the 2023 ceremony: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s Angela Bassett was long seen as the Best Supporting Actress favorite until Jamie Lee Curtis leapfrogged her for the award after Everything Everywhere All at Once’s awards season surge never stopped. (Plus, Jordan is 38—the Academy would be able to continue its streak of ignoring actors born after 1990!) My gut still says that it’ll be Chalamet’s turn this year, with DiCaprio serving as his biggest challenger, but this category is just too strong to count out the three other nominees.
3. Best Supporting Actress
And the nominees are: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
But who can actually win? Six months ago—hell, maybe even two months ago—everyone was predicting that Ariana Grande (for her turn as the bubbly good witch Glinda) had this trophy all but locked up. Once she fell out of the race (I know it’s all any Oscar fan can talk about, but I still feel like we’re not saying it enough—Wicked: For Good got ZERO noms!), Best Supporting Actress became truly anyone’s game. Over the past month, a top two emerged: One Battle’s Teyana Taylor and Weapons’ Amy Madigan. The double Sentimental Value nom is a bit unexpected, as both actors emerged late, but I think they’ll split the vote, and the nod for Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku was even more of a surprise, but I don’t see her competing with Madigan’s and Taylor’s showier roles.
So far, it’s been a draw between Madigan and Taylor—the former won the Critics Choice Award, and the latter won the Golden Globe. Taylor is attached to the more prestigious movie—Madigan’s nod is Weapons’ sole nomination—but the Academy is certainly becoming more amenable to horror. I mean, look again at all those Sinners nominations! Madigan nabbing the statuette for playing a certified hag would be a huge win for the horror genre. Taylor is completely electric in a role that lingers over the entirety of One Battle despite being limited to its prologue, but I think Madigan’s transformation into Aunt Gladys (remember, the Academy loves makeup and prosthetics!) will sway voters in her favor.
4. Best Supporting Actor
And the nominees are: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
But who can actually win? We may have had only one official day with these nominees, but this category has already been a total roller coaster. After One Battle’s release, it seemed like Sean Penn had no competition for Best Supporting Actor. Then, his costar Benicio del Toro won a couple of early critics awards, which was followed by Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi nabbing the CCA and Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgard winning the Golden Globe. And finally, we woke up on Oscar nominations day to find that Sinners’ Delroy Lindo earned a surprise nod over Hamnet’s Paul Mescal, who heretofore seemed like a lock for a nomination.
Outside of Lindo, whose ascent could very well be imminent, every nominee in this category has been the favorite at some point. More chaos could certainly be on the horizon, but I’d pick Skarsgard to win the trophy come March. He’s a great actor who’s never won before (this is his first nomination!), and he serves as the source for the complicated emotions explored in Sentimental Value. (The film as a whole fared very well with the Academy—it earned nine nods, which is tied for third most.) The One Battle boys still appear to be his biggest competition, but it’s looking increasingly likely that del Toro and Penn will split the vote. Regardless, we still have a couple more months of wonderfully candid Skarsgard press appearances ahead of us—and maybe he should win the Oscar for those alone.
5. Best International Feature
And the nominees are: The Secret Agent (Brazil), It Was Just an Accident (France), Sentimental Value (Norway), Sirāt (Spain), The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
But what can actually win? Pour one out for Park Chan-wook. After No Other Choice and its lead actor, Lee Byung-hun, both earned nods from the Golden Globes, the legendary Korean director seemed primed for his first Academy Award nomination. That is, until Spain’s Sirāt—which has still not had a proper U.S. release—surged late and Park was snubbed yet again.
But Park’s exclusion speaks to the strength of the Best International Feature slate: Four of the five nominees earned nods in general field categories. Obviously, The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value are the favorites here, since they’re the two that crossed over into the Best Picture slate. But Sirāt’s recent ascent is nothing to sneeze at—and its stock could continue to rise if its theatrical release in February is successful. Would it make much sense for it to win the trophy over two Best Picture nominees? Not really, but after I’m Still Here’s victory in the category last year over Emilia Pérez, despite the former earning only three total nods compared to the latter’s 13, anything is possible. For now, I’d still give the edge to Sentimental Value, which is bound to make the most noise in the general field categories out of all the international nominees. But thanks to last year’s backlash, there’s always the caveat that this category could flip upside down.
6. Best Casting
And the nominees are: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
But what can actually win? This is a brand-new category at this year’s ceremony, and despite a couple of curveballs that were on the short list before the announcement (Weapons and Sirāt), this … kind of just seems like a bonus Best Picture category? I mean, this quintet could easily serve as the top five contenders for the Oscars’ highest honor. I guess it makes sense—if a film is in contention for Best Picture, it probably has a pretty great cast!—but there are a couple of nonsensical decisions on display. For instance, Sentimental Value was excluded from Best Casting despite its four submitted actors all earning individual nominations, while Hamnet—which is primarily helmed by two actors, one of whom was notably snubbed—did get the casting nod. This category could be a hotly contested race purely because the Academy voters might not know what they’re doing. Then again, maybe that could be said for a number of categories.
7. Best Original Score
And the nominees are: Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia; Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein; Max Richter, Hamnet; Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another; Ludwig Goransson, Sinners
But who can actually win? Let me add to the chorus of Oscar critics and say that Marty Supreme’s Daniel Lopatin (a.k.a. Oneohtrix Point Never) was completely robbed. After his synthy soundtracks for Good Time and Uncut Gems failed to earn him recognition from the Academy, he missed the cut yet again for his excellent work on Marty Supreme, and he still has yet to earn his first Oscar nomination. Instead, Jerskin Fendrix got the nod for Bugonia’s spooky strings, which was a definite surprise. And Max Richter earned a nom for his work on Hamnet despite reusing his 2004 song “On the Nature of Daylight” … which is exactly what made his score for Arrival ineligible for Best Original Score in 2017. I told you, sometimes these awards just don’t make sense!
Regardless, Sinners’ Ludwig Goransson and One Battle’s Jonny Greenwood are the ones to beat in the category. And although he did just win his second Oscar two years ago for Oppenheimer, Goransson is in the lead for his blues-indebted tunes after nabbing the CCA and the Golden Globe. (If you don’t remember him winning the latter, that’s because it happened during a commercial break.) Then again, Greenwood’s captivating collaborations with Paul Thomas Anderson have made him a regular nominee, and he’s yet to win. Perhaps, like his director, this will be the first year he gets the statuette.
Stock Watch
To paraphrase one of cinema’s great stockbrokers: Nobody knows if an Oscar stock is going to go up, down, sideways, or in circles. In this section, we’ll evaluate who’s on the up-and-up and whose momentum is sputtering out as the competition across categories heats up.
Stock up: If those 16 nominations weren’t clear, I’d say Sinners’ stock is pretty high right now. Meanwhile, Frankenstein quietly earned nine nominations (which is tied for third most), even though its director, Guillermo del Toro, missed out on a nod in favor of Marty Supreme’s Josh Safdie. Despite some predicting that Bugonia’s Emma Stone would get passed over for a nod, she retained her status as an Oscar darling with her fifth acting nomination.
Stock down: I must reiterate: Wicked: For Good got zero nominations! Avatar: Fire and Ash also missed the Best Picture cut and will have to settle for just two nods (and a ton of money). Hamnet missed out on key nominations for Best Supporting Actor and Best Film Editing and might be further behind in the Best Picture race than we thought.
