Week 14 in the NFL is playoff leverage week. There are two different matchups between two teams that are currently tied atop their divisions. The fading Colts visit the Jaguars to face off for AFC South supremacy, while the Ravens host the Steelers in a battle of two .500 teams playing for first in the AFC North. And in a third game with major AFC playoff ramifications, the surging Texans, one game back of the Colts and Jags, visit the Chiefs in what is essentially an elimination game for Kansas City. There’s so much to play for, and it was all set up by a wonky Week 13 that saw a handful of surprising upsets.
The four upsets on Thanksgiving and Black Friday marked a real shuffling at the top of the NFL board. Four of the six teams that had the best Super Bowl odds entering the season (the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles) lost across those two days, and after the weekend, Detroit joined Kansas City as a preseason contender that’s now on the outside looking in at the current playoff picture.
The Eagles and Ravens, two other preseason Super Bowl contenders, enter Week 14 as clear favorites to win their respective games, but they are also followed by major doubts about the quality of their offenses. Week 14 is the final week of byes, which means that there are only 13 games on the slate.
Here are my thoughts on the entire Week 14 slate, including my favorite five bets. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through 13 weeks, this column is 49-52-1 overall and 30-35 on the Favorite Five.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (–5.5)
The Bengals pulled off a comfortable win against the Ravens on Thanksgiving and received a significant market bump in rating as a result. The real question to ask is whether the Bengals’ win in Baltimore was based on real, sustainable improvement stemming from Joe Burrow’s return or whether it came down to Baltimore’s own mistakes. Cincinnati finished the game with a measly 38.8 percent success rate on offense, which was 28th out of 32 teams who played in Week 13. Burrow looked sharper than many expected he would be when throwing the ball, but that still didn’t mean that the Bengals offense was humming. He completed just over half of his passes, and the offense averaged less than 5 yards per play. From my perspective, the Bengals won more because of the issues with the Ravens offense than anything else. The Ravens were doomed by constant mistakes, turnovers, and unforced errors, and while the Bengals deserve credit for taking advantage of those opportunities, I think that the market has overreacted here.
Cincinnati has been terrible at covering tight ends all year long and allowed nine receptions for 142 yards last week to the Ravens’ tight end combo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and remains uncertain to play in this game, but it’s worth targeting him and potentially Dawson Knox as well in the props market. And the Bengals defense won't necessarily take advantage of the absence of Buffalo’s starting offensive tackles. They likely won’t generate much edge pressure without Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson available.
Verdict: Bet Bills –5.5 (–110)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (–5.5)
The Pittsburgh Steelers looked like a washed-up football team against Buffalo on Sunday. It would be easy to say that we’ve seen this movie before and that you should start to believe in the Steelers again right when everyone counts Mike Tomlin out. He’s made a career out of pulling off upsets as an underdog. But this year, the cracks in the foundation appear too big to overcome. The offense is extremely limited both schematically and in terms of personnel. Aaron Rodgers isn’t throwing the ball down the field and isn’t holding on to the ball long enough to risk taking hits, and the result is that the entire offense is centered on yards after the catch. The offense has a very low ceiling, and it’s a chore for them to bring the ball up and down the field. Pittsburgh is in the bottom five in the NFL in explosive play rate and is third highest in 3-and-out rate. That’s a pretty lethal combination.
The Steelers had no defensive solutions for the Ravens offense in any of their three meetings last year, and Pittsburgh’s best solution this year might just be that Lamar Jackson continues to play poorly. The Ravens haven’t really been executing efficiently on offense since Jackson returned, and if they couldn’t even take advantage of the Bengals defense, that’s an ominous sign; every offense with a pulse has scored at least 26 points on Cincinnati this season.
With both offenses stuck in the mud right now, I’ll bet the under and find out whether either group has any solutions.
Verdict: Bet under 43.5 (–110)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (–3.5)
Because of the return of C.J. Stroud and improved play by the offensive line, Houston is now a trendy pick to steal the AFC South title and make a potential playoff run in the wide-open AFC. As long as the defense maintains its spot as a top-two unit (and it ain’t no. 2), the Texans will be competitive in every game. If you’ve been reading this column every week, then you know that I’ve been consistently betting Texans unders all season long. That has been a profitable endeavor (9-3 to the under). Because of how well the Texans defense matches up against Kansas City and due to the multiple injuries along the Chiefs offensive line, the Houston defense should be able to force the Chiefs to be extremely methodical—sustaining long drives will be the Chiefs’ only shot. And because of its elite secondary, Houston shouldn’t be afraid to play man coverage and dare Patrick Mahomes to throw downfield into tight windows. He has not been as accurate on those throws this season.
If the Texans defense has a weakness, it’s that it occasionally allows explosive rushing plays. That doesn’t really matter here because Kansas City has almost zero rushing explosiveness.
On the flip side of this matchup, we’ve seen time and time again that Stroud struggles when he’s pressured. The Chiefs defense completely shut Houston down in a playoff game in the same building in January, and I see a similar matchup brewing here.
It’s time to go back to the well for our favorite bet of the season.
Verdict: Bet under 42 (–110)
Denver Broncos (–7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Thankfully, the rematch of that terrible Raiders-Broncos Thursday night game from last month is buried late in the Sunday slate this week, so fewer NFL fans will be watching Bo Nix overthrow open receivers and Geno Smith take sack after sack on third down. Denver closed as an 8.5-point home favorite in that first meeting, which would suggest that this line is a bit inflated.
The glaring matchup edge for Denver is its ferocious pass rush against the Raiders’ inept offensive line. Denver’s rush will probably make offense difficult for Las Vegas, which has scored just five total touchdowns in the past four games.
However, this is also a bad situational spot for the Broncos, who are playing a second consecutive road game after their defense was on the field for 85 plays on Sunday night against Washington. I don’t have a strong reason to bet on the Raiders, but consider this more of a bet against the Broncos. You could argue that no team in the NFL is playing up and down to their competition quite like the Broncos. If you’re looking for a reason to bet on the Raiders, consider that the Broncos have struggled to cover tight ends this season. They rank 24th in EPA allowed to tight ends, which could make it a big evening for the Raiders’ Brock Bowers. He was barely a factor in their first meeting but could be more heavily featured in this game now that a new offensive coordinator is taking over for the recently departed Chip Kelly.
Denver has played six games away from home this season. All six were decided by four points or fewer, and the Broncos are 4-2 in those games, with wins against the Texans, Jets, Eagles, and Commanders. If they win by multiple scores, I’ll tip my cap to them.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +7.5
Philadelphia Eagles (–3) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Eagles offense is slowly withering away into dust. After two of the offense’s best games of the season in late October, it came out of the bye with four consecutive stinkers. The Eagles have failed to score more than 21 points in any of those games, and their offensive numbers for the entire season have slipped into an abyss that’s almost impossible to fathom given their talent level and track record of prior success.
The Eagles are now 23rd in points per drive and a mind-bending 29th in 3-and-out rate in 2025. Across the season, Philadelphia has produced only three games with a positive EPA per drive. Even when it’s faced bad run defenses, it has not been able to consistently run the football. Saquon Barkley looks less explosive than a year ago, and the offensive line has struggled to consistently win in the trenches.
In 2023, the Eagles collapsed after their 10-1 start and lost in the wild-card round because their defense fell off a cliff. That defensive unit wasn’t nearly as talented as the current Eagles offense is, but you can see why so many Eagles fans are fearful that the offense will limp down the same path.
The Chargers defense is built to take away explosive plays, sit in zones, and force teams to be methodical, so this is yet another difficult matchup for the Eagles offense. (But what isn’t at this point?) The Eagles’ run defense, meanwhile, had a poor showing last week against Chicago, but I think that’s more of a blip than a truly concerning indicator. When you also factor in the uncertainty surrounding Justin Herbert’s injured left hand, the Chargers and Eagles should be in a low-scoring Monday night battle.
Verdict: Bet under 41.5 (–112)
Thursday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (–3)
When you’re betting on the NFL, it can be a useful exercise to consider past closing lines to compare how the betting market’s view of a team changes from week to week. The Packers closed as a three-point road underdog against Detroit on Thanksgiving, and now that is the exact same market price for Dallas in this game. The market hasn't given the Packers and Cowboys a comparable price at any other point this season. (After all, Green Bay did close as a touchdown favorite in Dallas earlier this year.)
The Packers have widely been considered one of the best teams in the NFC all year—despite their penchant for losing low-scoring games to less talented teams—and now Dallas is getting a similar level of respect.
Since the trades for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson and the return of DeMarvion Overshown from a significant knee injury last month, the Cowboys’ run defense has been completely transformed. That unit ranked last in success rate allowed in Weeks 1-10; since the trade deadline before Week 11, Dallas has ranked fifth in the same metric.
That Detroit is only a slight favorite isn’t just a referendum on Dallas, though. The Lions are hurting, with top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown possibly out, tight end Sam LaPorta on injured reserve, and the offensive line missing a number of injured players as well.
They’ll also be without corner Terrion Arnold, which will only add to the Detroit defense’s challenges. That unit has been a bit more diverse in its schematic looks under new coordinator Kelvin Sheppard this year, but it still plays man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league. The Lions played a ton of man coverage on Thanksgiving—and the Packers shredded them, especially on late downs. If Detroit plays a lot of man on Thursday, Dak Prescott could have similar success. He excels at making tight-window throws down the field and has two elite pass catchers, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who could torch this Detroit secondary.
It’s clear that Dallas is trending up and Detroit is trending down right now, but the question is the degree to which this line is the result of some recency bias. I placed a small bet on Dallas on the moneyline with the idea that these two teams could very well be two ships passing in the night.
Verdict: Bet Dallas ML (+140)
The Rest of the Slate
Miami Dolphins (–3) at New York Jets
It seemed like everyone had forgotten about the Miami Dolphins. It was only when the Fox broadcast flashed a graphic at the end of their game last week showing Miami “in the hunt” at 5-7 that I remembered that yes, the Dolphins have quietly shed their dumpster-fire moniker and become a perfectly respectable football team. Really, they’ve played only three truly bad games all season long: opening week against the surprisingly good Colts, a 31-6 drubbing in bad weather in Cleveland, and a blowout loss to the Ravens on a Thursday night in late October.
The underlying metrics suggest that this offense was never as bad as the national conversation made it seem. Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t look like the same quarterback he once was, but the Dolphins can still consistently move the ball. They have right around a league-average offense based on yards and points per drive.
When facing the Dolphins offense, it’s important to be able to tackle and defend short passes. Miami throws underneath at one of the highest rates in the league, and the Jets are 30th in EPA per play allowed on passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Advantage, Miami.
Add in that the Jets are passing the ball more now since Tyrod Taylor took the starting job from Justin Fields, and you have a recipe for both teams to score more points than expected.
Verdict: Lean over 41.5 points (+100)
Seattle Seahawks (–7.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Seahawks won comfortably last week because of the four interceptions thrown by Minnesota’s rookie QB Max Brosmer. But Seattle’s offense struggled against Brian Flores’s blitzes, which does offer a bit of a warning sign ahead of this game. The Falcons bring extra rushers at the second-highest rate in the league (behind only Flores’s Minnesota defense), and Sam Darnold has looked a bit vulnerable against pressure recently, posting a negative EPA per dropback against the blitz in three of the past four weeks. There’s a case to be made that defenses are starting to catch on to how offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Darnold are running this offense.
The Falcons have been wildly snakebitten in close games this season. They sit at 4-8 entering Week 14 but have lost each of their past three games on the final play, and they lost another game because of a missed extra point. The Falcons seem perennially destined to keep losing close games, but I think that they are a bit undervalued here if the line is above a touchdown.
Verdict: Lean Falcons +7 (–110)
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (–3.5)
I would have thought that it would take something like a blizzard with extremely high winds for us to get a total as low as 33.5 this season. It turns out that all we needed was the dreadful Browns and Titans offenses in the same game. The Browns actually moved the ball fairly well last week against San Francisco, and the box score indicates that they were considerably more competitive than the final scoreboard suggested. Still, there are better games to watch and bet this week.
Verdict: Pass
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (–1.5)
Friends do not let friends bet on J.J. McCarthy. Friends especially do not let friends bet on J.J. McCarthy when his team is favored to win an NFL game. McCarthy ranks 42nd out of 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps in adjusted EPA per play, and the gap between him and no. 41 (Cam Ward) is sizable.
It’s not obvious how the current iteration of the Commanders secondary is supposed to cover all of the Vikings skill players, yet it’s even less clear how McCarthy can exploit this mismatch. I suspect that Washington will be a popular public play, as people are dying to bet more against McCarthy, but I’m staying away.
Verdict: Pass
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts have played only one good rushing team since defensive tackle DeForest Buckner went out with a season-ending neck injury in early November. The Falcons nearly pulled off the upset in that game (which was played in Berlin on November 9), in part because of how well they ran the ball. The Colts’ most recent opponents, the Chiefs and Texans, aren’t particularly good rushing teams, but the eye test and metrics both reveal that the Colts defense isn’t the same on the interior without Buckner.
Jacksonville’s most efficient offensive games come when it can consistently run well and doesn’t have to rely on Trevor Lawrence dropping back to pass too often. Lawrence has been below average in clear passing downs this season (third or fourth down and 5-plus yards to go).
The Colts are also in the bottom five in EPA allowed to tight ends. Jacksonville tight end Brenton Strange has seamlessly reintegrated back into the offense after missing five games with a quad and hip injury, and he has given the Jags offense some explosiveness that’s been lacking from the wide receivers. I like the matchup for the Jaguars offense on Sunday; who will win is a matter of whether or not the Colts offense can keep pace.
Verdict: Lean Jaguars +1.5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Bears made a statement to a national television audience on Black Friday by running all over the Eagles. The improvement of their rushing attack under first-year head coach Ben Johnson is one of the biggest developments of the 2025 season. Chicago went into its Week 5 bye ranked 30th in EPA per rush. Since Week 6, Chicago has been the second-most efficient rushing team in the league. Being able to rush has given Chicago’s offense an identity and has given the underdogs an advantage. The Bears have been able to shorten games by putting together long drives and reducing possessions, and the effectiveness of their run game has opened up the downfield passing game through the use of play-action. All of this has helped quarterback Caleb Williams overcome some of his bad habits and inconsistencies.
The injury to Packers defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt could leave vulnerabilities in their usually stout run defense, which ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed. The run game is the clear path for Chicago to try to find offensive success, because it’s really hard to hit explosive plays against the Packers defense through the air.
The Bears will have their two top corners back in the lineup, which could embolden defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to play a lot more man coverage and bring pressure when possible. Packers quarterback Jordan Love carved open the Lions secondary last week with man beater after man beater. I think that Green Bay will ultimately win this game, but I’m not looking to lay almost a touchdown here.
Verdict: Pass
Los Angeles Rams (–8.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Rams took a shocking loss to Carolina last week that was mostly driven by uncharacteristically poor play from quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Rams moved the ball at will in the game (averaging 7.7 yards per play), but three turnovers, including a Stafford pick-six, doomed them. Even if you still think that the Rams are the best team in the NFL, this is a massive betting line number in a divisional road game against an opponent that rarely gets blown out. Seven of the Cardinals’ nine losses have come by four points or less. Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett has excelled in garbage time all year long, which leaves Rams bettors vulnerable if they lay a big number.
Verdict: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
There are two ways of looking at the Saints-Dolphins game from last week. You could be pessimistic about New Orleans and acknowledge that the Saints offense could barely get a first down in the first half. Or you could be optimistic about how they fought their way back into the game and managed to nearly pull off a stunning comeback.
The problem I have with the Saints in this week’s matchup is that Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles’s defenses have historically fared well against inexperienced quarterbacks, and Tyler Shough has struggled mightily against defenses that blitz this year. The Saints offense is 30th in EPA per dropback against the blitz, and Shough really couldn’t do much of anything when he came in relief for Spencer Rattler at home in their first meeting against Tampa.
If you like the Buccaneers here, it’s probably worth betting alternate spreads because the Bucs are in dire need of a statement get-right win, and the defense could generate some turnovers against the rookie.
Verdict: Consider Bucs alternate spreads
The Favorite Five
Raiders +7.5 (–110)
Steelers-Ravens under 43.5 (–110)
Texans-Chiefs under 42 (–110)
Bills –5.5 (–110)
Eagles-Chargers under 41.5 (–112)
Other bets
Cowboys ML (+138)
