The MLB playoffs are one of the most exhilarating spectator events in all of sports. The crowd hangs on every pitch, not because there’s a guarantee of action but because there always could be. But unlike some other sports, baseball’s postseason is filled as much with dread as it is with hope. It’s why a single October night can feel heavier than the entire carefree and fun-loving summer that preceded it.
With the 2025 MLB playoffs starting on Tuesday, I’m here to provide a glimmer of optimism for every team in the postseason. But I also have on my hater goggles with reasons why each team won’t win it all.
José Ramírez takes the field during before Game 1 of the wild-card series against the Detroit Tigers
Why the Cleveland Guardians will win the World Series: The league’s best bullpen, again
In an era when starting pitchers aren’t going as deep into playoff games as they used to, the bullpen is of increased importance, especially as the series start to get longer. Since August 1, the Guardians have the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.93. And that dominant relief run came immediately after the Guards lost their shutdown closer, Emmanuel Clase, to suspension. Cleveland’s bullpen wilted late against the Yankees in the 2024 ALCS, but they’re back and primed to make another run.
Why the Guardians won’t win: The offensive players not named José Ramírez
Cleveland’s offense isn’t just the worst lineup in the playoff field, it’s one of the worst in the sport. The Guardians finished the season 29th in OPS with a .670 mark, ahead of only Pittsburgh. Only two of their regular starters—superstar José Ramírez and youngster Kyle Manzardo—finished the season with a slash line that was above league average.
The Guardians have had playoff success in the recent past despite little offensive production. They won a wild-card series in 2022 against the Rays despite scoring three total runs in two games. This offense doesn’t look like one capable of producing a deep playoff run, though, even if the Guardians will like their chances against the fading Tigers. Given how Cleveland’s season looked a month ago, it’s remarkable that they’re even here at all.
Matt McLain and third base coach J.R. House of the Cincinnati Reds
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win: In the new expanded format, it’s been good to be a 6-seed in the National League
This one’s admittedly a bit superstitious, but baseball’s postseason is famously unpredictable, and the 83-79 Reds may need to rely on some juju to make a deep run. Since the MLB playoffs expanded to six teams per league at the start of the 2022 season, there have been three no. 6 seeds in the National League. That year, the Phillies went from barely qualifying for the playoffs to playing in the World Series. In 2023, the Diamondbacks upset the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies en route to a World Series appearance. And last season, the “OMG” Mets surged from a final-day playoff entry to pushing the eventual champions, the Dodgers, to a six-game NLCS.
Why the Reds won’t win: They are about to face an all-time gauntlet of elite pitching
At least the Guardians went on a red-hot run to finish the season and earn their way into the playoffs. The Reds can’t even say they did that after they outlasted the Mets in a wild-card race no one seemed to want to win. Cincinnati went 26-26 in August and September and made the playoffs on a tiebreaker because the Mets went 21-32 in the same two-month stretch. The Reds now get a wild-card matchup with the Dodgers and will face Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and potentially Shohei Ohtani in a three-game series. If the Reds survive that, they’ll get a date with likely Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez in Philadelphia on Saturday. The Phillies have lost only two of Sánchez’s 15 home starts this year. Ranger Suárez, the likely Game 2 starter, ain’t a slouch, either.
Bryce Harper bats during the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win: They are the most well-rounded team in the field
Even with ace Zack Wheeler out for the season, it’s really hard to pick an obvious hole in the Phillies’ playoff portfolio. Their rotation in the last two months had the second-best xERA in baseball, behind only the Dodgers. The Phillies feature maybe the best closer in the league in Jhoan Durán, and the lineup enters October as a much deeper unit than the one that struggled in the second half of last year. Philadelphia has the superstar offensive players built for big postseason moments with NL home run and MLB RBI leader Kyle Schwarber, NL batting champion Trea Turner, and frequent playoff hero Bryce Harper.
The defense has also considerably improved since the deadline acquisition of Harrison Bader, along with manager Rob Thompson’s decision to play Max Kepler more often in right field over the struggling Nick Castellanos.
Why the Phillies won’t win: The offense hasn’t traveled well this year
For all the positives, the Phillies offense hasn’t hit well away from Citizens Bank Park for the majority of the year.
Philadelphia is second offensively (by wRC+) at home this year. That rank drops all the way to 16th in away games. Bryce Harper is one of the biggest culprits in this regard, with a .760 OPS (meager for his standards) away from South Philly.
The Phillies would have home-field advantage in every series except a potential NLCS matchup against Milwaukee, but that fact will give Phillies fans an anxious feeling. The Phillies scored only three runs last year in two playoff road games at Citi Field in an NLDS loss to the Mets.
Brice Turang, Andrew Vaughn, Caleb Durbin, and Andruw Monasterio celebrate the win after the final out of a game against the Toronto Blue Jays
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win: They finished with the best record in baseball, duh
Milwaukee won the most games, had the best run differential, and probably has the deepest roster of solid to above-average players in the league. The Brewers traded for Red Sox starter Quinn Priester for basically nothing and turned him into a high-quality pitcher. White Sox castoff Andrew Vaughn posted a .869 OPS for Milwaukee this year. They excelled at finding success around the edges of the roster.
If baseball were a more just sport, the best team throughout the entire regular season would win the World Series more often. However, that has not often been the case recently. The 2021 Giants lost in the NLDS. The 2022 Dodgers lost in the NLDS. The 2023 Braves lost in the NLDS. In 2024, the league’s best team finally won the Fall Classic after the Dodgers survived an NLDS scare from San Diego.
Alas, we live in a world where the best team rarely wins the postseason tournament. Out of the 30 completed seasons since the wild-card era began in 1994, the team with the best regular-season record has prevailed in the World Series only eight times (26.7 percent). Milwaukee does everything well, but I am dubious of them for the reason I’m about to discuss in the paragraph below.
Why the Brewers won’t win: The lack of star power
While Milwaukee ended the season with 97 wins, oddsmakers had set their preseason win total at 83.5, making the Brewers one of the biggest overachievers in baseball this season. They had so much success across 162 regular-season games because of their excellent organizational depth and player development. But while the Brewers’ roster doesn’t have any big holes, it also doesn’t have true star power (like the Phillies' or Dodgers' roster) that can help carry the offense when the pitching gets a lot tougher in October. The back of the rotation, the lower-leverage arms of the bullpen, and the bench options don’t really matter as much in the playoffs. With the extra off days, it’s usually about the stars. And the Brewers don’t have a single top-40 qualified hitter this season by wRC+ (Brice Turang leads Milwaukee at 41st). Simply put, this is a collection of good talent without an elite difference maker.
Shohei Ohtani in the dugout during a game against the Seattle Mariners
Why the Los Angeles Dodgers will win: It was always supposed to be them, right?
After the Dodgers acquired Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, and Tanner Scott in the offseason, the defending champions were preemptively crowned by many as back-to-back World Series winners. The Dodgers didn’t quite live up to their preseason superteam expectations, but they still managed to rack up a decent 93 wins and win the National League West. Although there hasn’t been a repeat World Series champion since 2000, the Dodgers are healthier than usual entering October—and the roster, of course, includes Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Cy Young candidate Yoshinobu Yamamoto. This is a team full of superstars.
Why the Dodgers won’t win: The bullpen
The Dodgers entered last year’s playoffs with an elite and deep bullpen and very few reliable starters. The opposite is true this October. The bullpen is underwater, and the Dodgers are trying to patch together fixes to resurface before the playoffs begin.
Ohtani pitched 14 2/3 scoreless innings across his last three regular-season starts in September. He even homered in one of those games. And yet the Dodgers went 0-3 in those starts. Yamamoto threw 8 2/3 no-hit innings against Baltimore, and the Dodgers bullpen blew that one, too. The Dodgers are 21st in bullpen ERA (4.34) since the trade deadline, and they don’t have a reliable closer right now. The Dodgers’ playoff pitching plan will surely rely on starters like Tyler Glasnow and Emmet Sheehan working out of the bullpen.
Mason Miller after striking out Jorge Barrosa of the Arizona Diamondbacks
Why the San Diego Padres will win: Their bullpen can make games six innings long
Padres GM A.J. Preller traded away one of the league’s top prospects, Leodalis de Vries, for Mason Miller at the deadline in a blockbuster move. Preller made the move knowing Miller can provide pitching multiple innings per outing in the playoffs, consistently touching 103 mph with his fastball. With Miller, Adrián Morejón, Jeremiah Estrada, and Robert Suarez, the Padres have an entire stable of flamethrowing relievers ready to silence opposing lineups. Good luck to any team that falls behind the Padres at any point in the second half of a game.
Why the Padres won’t win: They don’t hit enough home runs
Despite all the tropes about playing small ball and winning ugly in the playoffs, postseason outcomes are actually determined by the long ball. San Diego isn’t good at hitting them, and they’ll be shorthanded in the wild card without trade deadline acquisition Ramón Laureano due to injury.
The Padres finished the regular season 28th in home runs hit and 28th in isolated power, which measures a hitter’s raw power. Scoring against elite pitching is really hard, unless you can hit the long ball. The Padres’ power numbers did improve marginally in the second half, but a trip to Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in this week, per AccuWeather, will be a challenge.
Tarik Skubal celebrates after advancing to the playoffs
Why the Detroit Tigers will win: Tarik Skubal channels his inner 2014 Madison Bumgarner
Giants legend Bumgarner threw 52.2 innings in the 2014 playoffs. He had a 1.03 ERA across seven appearances, including three World Series appearances, and the Giants went 6-1 in those games. If Skubal, the likely AL Cy Young winner, can manage a historic October run, the Tigers could use him once in the wild card, potentially twice in the divisional series, and maybe two or three times in the final two rounds.
Why the Tigers won’t win: They peaked way too early
When the Tigers woke up on July 9, they were 59-34. No one in baseball had a better record. Factor in the incredible fairy-tale run to end last season and make the playoffs, and you had a sample of more than 100 games where it looked like the Tigers had managed to solve the sport of baseball.
Turns out, that was not true.
A disappointing trade deadline, multiple starting pitcher injuries, and offensive regression all contributed to a 28-41 finish to the season. Even with Skubal pitching at a Cy Young level yet again, the Tigers don’t have another truly reliable starter right now.
Two weeks ago, Detroit looked like a sure thing for a bye to the ALDS. Now, oddsmakers have them as a toss-up to even reach that round.
Kyle Tucker before a game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs
Why the Chicago Cubs will win: They make their pitching staff look better than it is with elite defense
Chicago has one of the best middle-infield defensive pairings in the league with Dansby Swanson at shortstop and Nico Hoerner at second base. Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of baseball’s best defenders in center field, and both Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker are plus defenders in the corner outfield. The Cubs don’t have a great pitching staff, but they do a stellar job of preventing runs with their defense. Those kinds of marginal edges can really add up.
Why the Cubs won’t win: We have no idea what Kyle Tucker will be in October
The Cubs traded for Tucker with just one year remaining before free agency because he was the exact difference maker they needed at the heart of their lineup. Chicago’s lineup was solid and deep last year, but it didn’t have that one player whom opposing teams needed to build their game plan around. With a healthy and thriving Tucker, the Cubs offense is as formidable as any in the playoff field.
Tucker missed almost all of September with a calf strain, and he didn’t return until the final weekend of the regular season. He had just one hit in 10 at-bats.
Cam Schlittler during a game against the Baltimore Orioles
Why the New York Yankees will win: The return of Luis Gil and emergence of Cam Schlittler
The Yankees have a four-man rotation that could go toe-to-toe with any rotation in the playoff field now that Gil is healthy and Schlittler has proved himself as a potential frontline starter. Schlittler pitched 73 innings with 84 strikeouts and a 2.96 ERA, and Gil pitched to a 2.93 ERA in September after a shaky start following his return from the injured list. The Yankees will need four starters for the ALDS and ALCS. It was a major question whom they’d rely on when Gerrit Cole went down for the season in spring training, but the young duo now gives the Yankees World Series upside.
Why the Yankees won’t win: The bullpen can’t keep the ball in the park
Whenever you're discussing the Yankees and the playoffs, there’s an obvious name that gets brought up. Everyone will rightfully opine about why Aaron Judge hasn’t performed anywhere near his usual standard in the playoffs. But it would be a bit absurd to write a playoff preview and say that the current hitting equivalent to Barry Bonds is why the Yankees won’t win the World Series. So I’m not going to do it, even if we’re all thinking about it.
My actual biggest concern for the Yankees is the bullpen’s inability to prevent the long ball. Since July 1, Yankees relievers have allowed 1.49 HR/9. Only three teams in MLB are worse. Even after Brian Cashman tried to rebuild the unit at the trade deadline with the acquisitions of David Bednar and Camilo Doval, the issue persisted, and it’s the fastest way to turn would-be playoff wins into losses.
Matt Brash and Cal Raleigh after winning the game against the Los Angeles Angels
Why the Seattle Mariners will win: The stars have aligned perfectly since the trade deadline
From a pitching, lineup, and playoff path perspective, no one in the American League is more well-rounded heading into the playoffs than Seattle. GM Jerry Dipoto saw that the American League was wide open this season and pushed some prospect chips into the middle of the table at the deadline to acquire Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. The Mariners offense has a ton of patience, depth, and power. It’s the second-best offense away from home in all of baseball this season. Additionally, Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash are as good a back-end bullpen duo as any. As long as Bryan Woo is healthy for Saturday, the Mariners are perfectly set up to win the pennant.
Why the Mariners won’t win: Defense and baserunning
As much as I gushed about the Mariners above, their defense and baserunning are glaring holes in their statistical profile, and both tend to matter in October.
By outs above average, the Mariners have the fourth-worst defense in MLB; no other playoff team is even in the bottom 10. Julio Rodriguez is elite in center field, but J.P. Crawford has really struggled at shortstop, and Eugenio Suárez is an extremely bat-first third baseman. Seattle’s fundamental issues with athleticism and speed could be a reason it’ll underperform around the margins this month.
The Toronto Blue Jays celebrate after clinching the AL East division
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win: They’ll have a 2023 Rangers type of offensive run
The Rangers went from handily missing the playoffs in 2022 to fielding one of the league’s best offenses in 2023. That year’s Rangers came out of nowhere, played really good defense, and got unexpected contributions from all over the roster. It’s a very similar story to this year’s Blue Jays, who finished dead last in the AL East last season only to earn the American League’s best record this year.
The Blue Jays won the AL East because they had the best hitting metrics during the second half of the season and slugged their way around their pitching deficiencies. Toronto finished the regular season with the highest on-base percentage (.333) in MLB, and the Jays were top five in hard-hit rate. This lineup could be a problem in the postseason.
Why the Blue Jays won’t win: The offense can’t outslug bad pitching forever
As good as the Jays offense is, the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette carrying the team will have a hard time getting through three consecutive playoff series unless multiple key pitchers step up in October.
Since July 1, the Blue Jays have ranked 24th in bullpen xERA (4.23). Only the collapsing Tigers were worse among the playoff field. The starting pitching isn’t much better, ranking 19th in xERA, and that’s the worst among everyone in the playoff field. The Blue Jays have a really fun offense that will be hard for any opposing staff to keep down, but the pitching lacks true top-end talent.
The Boston Red Sox after clinching a playoff berth with a walk-off win over the the Detroit Tigers
Why the Boston Red Sox will win: They’ll survive until Roman Anthony returns, and the rookie will have a 2019 Juan Soto type of playoff debut
It doesn’t look like Anthony, who suffered an oblique injury in early September, will play in the ALDS if the Red Sox get there this weekend. But what if Boston can ride its excellent bullpen and scratch across just enough runs until Anthony comes back into the fold for a potential ALCS matchup?
It’s a pretty unlikely scenario given the current state of the offense without him. The Red Sox had a below-average offense (98 wRC+) in the second half of the season. But if they survive long enough to get Anthony back, anything could happen. The rookie outfielder, who in August signed an eight-year contract extension worth at least $130 million, had a .396 OBP and .859 OPS in 257 at-bats this year. He’s a superstar in the making.
Why the Boston Red Sox won’t win: They struggle to hit left-handed pitching
The Red Sox have had problems hitting left-handed pitching, and now they’re about to face two of the best left-handed pitchers in the American League in their first two playoff games. Since the trade deadline, Boston is 21st in wRC+ against southpaws. It’ll be able to work Nick Sogard and Rob Refsnyder into the lineup to try to gain the platoon advantage at second base and designated hitter, but facing a lefty means no Masataka Yoshida, and it puts Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran in difficult matchups. And while Alex Bregman is excellent against lefties at third base, he’s currently sick and traveled separately from the team to New York, where Boston will face the Yankees in a classic rivalry matchup.
The Yankees’ 1 and 2 starters, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, have allowed a .674 and .542 OPS, respectively, against left-handed batters this year. You can’t like that matchup if you’re a Red Sox fan.
