Be thankful that the NBA is keeping us busy with on-court action and locker-room drama, because the rumor mill has hardly been in motion. Conversations with a wide range of league executives and agents reveal a strong consensus: The trade market is expected to be quiet. All the big deals that were brewing already happened during the jam-packed 2017 offseason. Teams are reluctant to take on money with the salary cap flattening over the next few seasons. A lack of star power makes it hard for teams to take big swings.
That’s not to say that nothing will happen. There is a handful of role players who could affect a playoff series should they change places. But more importantly, the deadline is an opportunity for some teams to set themselves up for the future. Cap space will come at a premium—much like it did in the 2000s and early 2010s, before the booms from the past few offseasons—which means teams will look to create room that can be used in the summers ahead.
The NBA moved the trade deadline ahead of All-Star weekend this season so teams can settle their rosters before the break, which means there are only 10 days left of trading season. Based on intel from league sources, here are the players and teams to watch leading up to February 8 and what could carry over into the offseason.
Challenges for Teams on the Cusp
The Nuggets have been extremely active in past seasons. Kenneth Faried has seemingly been the Trade Machine Player of the Year for the past four years. But not this season. Though teams (and Damian Lillard) would like to get their hands on Will Barton, Denver has remained muted as this deadline approaches; the team is happy with what it has in a young, developing roster competing for the playoffs. The Timberwolves are surging and also seem more likely to pluck from the buyout market rather than make a trade.
The Raptors and Rockets both went all in at the 2017 deadline, dealing for Serge Ibaka and Lou Williams, respectively, but they don’t have first-round picks in the 2018 draft, which will make it harder to find a deal. Daryl Morey and Masai Ujiri are on the phones like they always are, but the path to a deal isn’t quite as clear as last season.
Sam Presti will encounter the same issue. Adding a production wing or forward was already a need for the Thunder, and losing Andre Roberson for the season with a ruptured patellar tendon on Saturday night underlines that weakness. They’d love to add a wing like Tyreke Evans, but they’ll likely have to settle for someone like Marco Belinelli, who isn’t a significant upgrade over their existing options.
The Spurs also seem quiet (other than the Kawhi Leonard white noise—and Kawhi isn’t being traded). If the Spurs do take action, expect any moves to be for a big, or to be focused on the future. They might be near the top of the Western Conference, but the team is old. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Pau Gasol have only so many years left. LaMarcus Aldridge will likely begin to decline as the Spurs enter the new decade. Danny Green can become an unrestricted free agent this summer and would be a coveted 3-and-D wing. Davis Bertans, Kyle Anderson, and Bryn Forbes will all be restricted free agents looking to get paid. The Spurs are still the Spurs, but one wrong turn and they’re tumbling down the cliff.
The Jazz Standard
It’s been previously reported that the Jazz are open to dealing Rodney Hood, but the reality is that everyone—aside from Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert—is available for the right price. With a strong top of the draft class, it wouldn’t hurt to climb the lottery standings. They’re not blowing it up; they want to reshape their roster in a way that helps them moving forward.
The Ricky Rubio experiment has been a bust, but it’s unclear how strong the market will be for a point guard who can’t space the floor and still has another season left on his deal. Raul Neto, Rubio’s backup, would be a lower-cost alternative for any team in need of a quality reserve. Alec Burks hasn’t quite returned to form after coming back from knee surgery, but he has appeal as a quality backup wing for a team like the Wizards.
Hood will hit restricted free agency this summer and has generated interest from the Bulls and Pistons. It’s been readily reported that Utah has sent feelers for Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic. The Pistons have also looked into Mirotic, and it was recently reported that Chicago has interest in Jazz forward Derrick Favors.
The Pistons’ Engine Is Stalling
The Pistons have dangled Stanley Johnson in trade conversations, including for Hood. Johnson has resembled a bust with the Pistons. But he’s only 21, already a strong multipositional defender, and only a jump shot away from being a capable two-way player. Why else would San Antonio inquire about him in 2016? Teams like the Spurs and the Jazz can afford to be patient with a player like Johnson, unlike Pistons head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy. With a $116 million payroll and a 22-26 record, Detroit is under pressure to win now. If the team keeps sliding, it won’t be long until Van Gundy’s seat is blisteringly hot.
But Detroit’s options are limited. Executives across the league value Johnson vastly differently. Ask one executive, and he’s considered a potential low-cost steal ready to be poached from the playoff-thirsty Pistons. Ask another, and he’s viewed similarly to P.J. Tucker, a fine player but one without significant trade value. Point guard Reggie Jackson isn’t treasured. Rookie Luke Kennard was drafted no. 12, but not all teams considered him anything close to a lottery pick. Van Gundy needs to do something, but whatever it is might end with the same unfortunate result.
Atlanta’s Trade Roost
Teams looking to make a splash should contact the Hawks. As ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski previously reported, Kent Bazemore, Ersan Ilyasova, and Belinelli are on the block. Big man Mike Muscala has also generated light interest. Another name that could also be moved? Dennis Schröder.
Though Schröder is only 24, he’s not part of the Hawks’ long-term equation with his inconsistent, inefficient performance. However, any move involving Schröder is more likely to happen in the summer. As it stands, teams in need of a point guard may prefer to hold onto cap space for someone like Isaiah Thomas or Elfrid Payton or hope they can land Collin Sexton or Trae Young in the draft. But if they strike out, there will be more suitors in July than there are now. The Hawks are trying to reload for the next decade, and general manager Travis Schlenk will continue to reshape the roster to add fuel to their tank. The big question is whether coach Mike Budenholzer will want to stick around for a rebuild, especially after losing his front-office powers.
Let Freedom Wing
The Sixers are considered a team likely to make a move for a swingman. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has emerged since being inserted in the starting five, but the team could still use an additional perimeter playmaker for its playoff push in the second half of the season. Both Wesley Matthews (Dallas) and Evan Fournier (Orlando) are reportedly on the trading block, so they stand as options; the Sixers, however, would be wise to avoid adding salary beyond this season. If anything, they should go the other way and package Jerryd Bayless, who will get paid $8.6 million in 2018-19, with a draft pick for an expiring contract like Evans.
The Grizzlies want a first-round pick for Evans, who is averaging 19.4 points in his healthiest season in three years. Evans would be a wonderful addition to any team that needs a spark-plug scorer who can also shoulder playmaking responsibilities—a team like the Sixers, Pelicans, or Celtics. The asking price might be a bit steep for most teams; Evans is an expiring contract, which would make surrendering a first-rounder a tough pill to swallow. That said, teams do get bolder as the deadline approaches: The Wizards gave up their first for Bojan Bogdanovic last season.
L.A. Deadline Traffic
The Rockets traded a first-round pick last season for a rental of Lou Williams, who might soon find himself in a similar situation this year. Williams is the hottest player in the NBA right now, and his recent performance has the Clippers back in the playoff race. Williams, who once seemed like a lock to be traded, might have a future in L.A. beyond this season. The Clippers don’t need to do anything. Williams is happy playing in Los Angeles and is one of this decade’s steadiest pick-and-roll scorers. If the Clippers want to keep Lou, they can.
It’s been reported that the Cavaliers, Bucks, and Blazers all have interest in DeAndre Jordan. There are also rumblings about a swap with the Heat for Hassan Whiteside, which doesn’t entirely make sense for either side, but is out there nonetheless. One of the hurdles in any deal for Jordan is that he can become an unrestricted free agent this summer. Though Jordan and his new agent, Jeff Schwartz, will seek a max contract worth more than $30 million annually, there’s a possibility that he’ll end up opting into his $24.1 million contract for 2018-19. There are so few teams with max contract space available this summer, and a 30-year-old center who can’t shoot isn’t the type of player that teams will clear the books for.
When Jordan hired Schwartz, some league insiders initially thought the decision paved a path to Milwaukee. The Bucks have a history with Excel Sports Management clients: They’ve reached in the draft for both Rashad Vaughn and Thon Maker, and longtime Schwartz client Jason Kidd was the coach. But now that Kidd has been fired and bridges have been burned, Milwaukee is a less viable destination. If he is traded, a team like the Cavaliers or Bucks will have to go all in.
Down the hallway from the Clippers, the Lakers have made available Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle, and Larry Nance Jr. (as everyone and their mother has previously reported). Teams know the Lakers are trying to clear cap space for two max players, so they don’t have much leverage. Clarkson is a nice combo guard who has been on a tear as of late, but with his deal locked up through the 2019-20 season, it’ll be hard to find him a new home. Randle is intriguing as an upcoming restricted free agent. The Celtics had strongly considered drafting Randle in 2014 but ended up taking Marcus Smart. Boston has a disabled player exception that could be used to absorb Randle. The team also planned to select Nance with the no. 28 pick in 2015, but the Lakers snatched him at no. 27. It’s unclear whether there’s interest on Boston’s end, but they’d both fit the bill as players who can defend multiple positions and rebound.
The Lakers are in a tough spot. It won’t be easy for them to dump salary, and even if they do, there are no guarantees that players like LeBron James or Paul George will come to Los Angeles. Though most league executives still expect George to bolt for the Lakers, the All-Star forward recently said his strong relationship with Russell Westbrook this season has made the decision on his future long-term home “easier.” If George stays in Oklahoma City, that’s one less potential sidekick for LeBron in L.A., which is problematic since the other one, DeMarcus Cousins, just ruptured his Achilles tendon. If LeBron decides to stay in Cleveland for one more season, it’s conceivable that the Lakers’ path to acquiring James would be easier in 2019 than it would be this coming summer.
As long as the Lakers retain cap space, it might be possible for them to unload Luol Deng (since he’d have only one season remaining, rather than two), instead of stretching him this offseason. A lot can change with the team’s cap situation between now and then. But at least on paper, the 2019 class will be far stronger than the 2018 class as Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Klay Thompson, among others, can hit the unrestricted market. The Lakers will always be a destination, especially if Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Kyle Kuzma keep making strides.
What Will Cleveland Do?
The Cavaliers are trying to make their own additions. As previously reported, they have interest in both Jordan and Williams, as well as Kings point guard George Hill. To make a deal for Hill happen, Sacramento would need to open roster spots. It’s spoken with several teams about Skal Labissiere and Malachi Richardson; one team to keep an eye on is the Mavericks: Labissiere fills a need and fits their timeline. Plus, if the Cavs aren’t willing to pay a hefty price for Jordan, Nerlens Noel, a Klutch Sports client, can fill a similar role at a significantly lower cost.
The sense around the league is that the Cavaliers will do something. But all indications are that the Nets pick is off the table unless it’s for a high-impact star. If that changes, then it’s due to ownership pressure.
Flotsam and Jetsam
Aside from Noel and Labissiere, other centers that could be on the move include Robin Lopez (Chicago), Willy Hernangomez (New York), and Greg Monroe (Phoenix). Monroe is a buyout candidate, however. The Pacers could also use Al Jefferson as a filler in a deal that brings in a larger-salaried player who helps them now; Jefferson also has a partially guaranteed deal for 2018-19, effectively making an appealing expiring contract for teams looking to unload a player. Though teams are checking in on Grizzlies center Marc Gasol, as reported before, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll get moved. Memphis could think about it in the future, but for now the team is riding it out. But it won’t get easier for the team to build in the future due to its one big mistake in signing Chandler Parsons.
It’s remarkable what one single mistake can do to a franchise. Parsons restricts Memphis’s ability to make impactful changes. Knicks center Joakim Noah is untradable. Omer Asik isn’t much easier to trade. The Nets are biding their time after the 2013 blockbuster that brought in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett (and they already made a low-risk, medium-reward move by bringing in Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas). The Hornets have Nicolas Batum signed for an average of $24.8 million through 2020-21, and the Hornets are stuck. While the odds are they won’t deal Kemba Walker before the deadline, it’s their mistakes that put them into this position in the first place.
With the salary cap flattening this summer, teams need to be careful about the decisions they make. Short-term decision-making can hurt a franchise. The calm before the deadline suggests most teams are taking the long view. Whether that holds as we get closer and closer to February 8 will tell us a lot about the course the NBA will take heading into the playoffs and offseason, but don’t expect the market’s temperature to reach its boiling point.
