After watching the Vikings’ disastrous offensive performance on Monday, it shouldn’t have been much of a surprise that Minnesota traded for Kirk Cousins on Tuesday before the NFL trade deadline. Cousins was the only player capable of truly moving a point spread to be dealt this week. When you combine that deal with the numerous injuries and quarterback changes around the league, Week 10 is off to a chaotic start.
Just to recap:
- Malik Willis hit the injured reserve, and the Colts moved from –2.5 to –3.5 despite trading away two of their top three receivers. Kyle McCord will start at QB for Miami.
- The Cardinals lost Gardner Minshew to an elbow injury, and since they traded Jacoby Brissett already, they will now start Carson Beck.
- After the Cousins deal, no. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza will start for the Raiders. That gives us three QBs making their first NFL starts this Sunday.
- The Rams will not have Puka Nacua for multiple weeks. The Cardinals won’t have Michael Wilson for the rest of the year.
I can’t remember a week when the QB news and betting markets were so haywire before Wednesday morning practice reports came around. This is becoming the new normal as the number of healthy quarterbacks continues to dwindle.
With a 4-3 record, this column was back to its winning ways in Week 9. We’re now 35-31 on the season, and 24-21 on the Favorite Five. Here are my thoughts on all of the Week 10 games, starting with Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (–1.5)
Rain and wind are in the forecast for Thursday night, and the total has already dropped from 43.5 to 41.5. A loss would effectively end the Commanders’ season. A win would pull them within two games of first place in an NFC East that neither the Giants nor the Cowboys are going to run away with.
Washington closed as a 3.5-point home favorite when these teams met in Week 5. That game ended in a tie after the Commanders’ embarrassing clock-management blunder in overtime. A month later, with the Giants laying 1.5 at home, the market is pricing these teams as roughly even. I’ve been lower than the market on the Giants for most of the season, and that opinion has cost me money. But beyond the Texans win, what have they done to earn that upgrade?
The Giants have ranked 26th in EPA per rush since Jaxson Dart went down. If they’re still struggling to run the ball on Thursday, J.J. McCarthy will have to convert obvious passing downs in the dreary conditions. McCarthy practiced in full on Tuesday after barely finishing last week’s game with a hip pointer.
Isaiah Likely is the biggest threat to the Commanders. Washington has struggled to defend tight ends for years and ranks last in DVOA against them this season. Likely caught 11 passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting, and he and receiver Malik Nabers could have another big night against a secondary that gives up too many explosive plays. But much of New York’s offense in that first meeting came with Jameis Winston chasing a two-touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter. I’m skeptical the Giants can get that kind of passing production again with McCarthy in these conditions.
I still have Washington as the slightly better team, and I’ll take the points in a divisional slog. They’re the team more likely to run the ball efficiently, and the Giants’ issues against mobile quarterbacks were on display both last week against Joe Milton and in the first meeting when Jayden Daniels ran for 103 yards.
Bet: Commanders +1.5 (+100)
The Favorite Five (24-21)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (–3.5)
The struggles of the Browns offense and the Ravens’ quarterback injuries have quickly turned the AFC North into a two-team race. The Steelers beat the Bengals at home in Week 3 by a field goal as a 3.5-point underdog, and they now visit Cincinnati with first place in the division on the line. They’re again a 3.5-point underdog.
Cincinnati’s supernova offense is first in DVOA following three consecutive demolitions of the Ravens, Titans, and Falcons. Despite all of the talk about wanting the Bengals to be under center more in the offseason, Cincinnati is second in the league in shotgun snap percentage, and first since Week 6. When the Bengals line up in their shotgun spread with Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and a few talented tight ends on the field, they’re capable of just out-talenting most NFL defenses.
But with Pittsburgh in a massive rest advantage spot off the bye, and Cincinnati coming back from an international game, this line shouldn’t be more than 3 in my opinion. Pittsburgh has had by far the league’s most efficient rushing offense since reshuffling its offensive line before Week 3. Aaron Rodgers is elite at using the middle of the field, especially with his tight ends—a major weakness for the Cincinnati defense. The Bengals have not played against many great rushing attacks, and they’ve still allowed the highest rate of explosive runs in the NFL. There are basically no secondaries that can stop the Bengals right now, but Patrick Graham’s can at least force Cincinnati to be less explosive and more methodical.
Bet: Steelers +3.5 (–110)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
The return of Tank Dell to full health is a major boost to the Texans offense. He scored a long touchdown last week against the Chargers, and the Texans now have three distinct offensive receiver profiles with Dell, Nico Collins, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Houston’s offense is top 10 in EPA per play, top eight in yards per play, and had just a 42 percent rush rate last week despite leading most of the game. They’ve fully embraced having C.J. Stroud let it rip, and the result is a much more efficient offense than last year’s, which also had no reliable receivers besides Collins and no running game.
The market is still pricing the Texans defense as an elite unit, and we’ll see if they get back to that level this year. Deshaun Watson is back for Cleveland this week, so we’ll see if that can be another attempt at a get-right spot for the Browns.
I’m going to continue betting on the Houston offense week-to-week. The Browns defense has not played an offense with anything close to this level of firepower since Week 1 in Jacksonville. Cleveland allowed 27 and 24 points in both meetings with Pittsburgh, and the weather looks normal for a November day in northeast Ohio. Houston will score, and we’ll see if Watson can keep up.
Bet: Texans team total over 23.5 points (–104)
Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5)
The Raiders have allowed 30-plus points in six consecutive games. Defensive coordinator Rob Leonard has not covered himself in glory this season, but a game against Drew Lock and the Seahawks should finally put an end to a brutal streak for this unit. The Raiders have played a lot of high-powered offenses in the last six games, and the Seahawks are anything but that this season.
This is a difficult spot for rookie Fernando Mendoza to make his first start. He’s armed with the league’s worst run offense, going against defensive mastermind Mike Macdonald and the league’s best run defense. The Raiders are likely to be entirely one-dimensional, and they’re facing a defense that does not allow big plays, ever.
The Seahawks have the fourth-lowest explosive play rate allowed by any defense through nine weeks since 2010. Seattle is also fourth-best in DVOA against tight ends and can force one of the Raiders’ outside receivers to try to beat them instead of Brock Bowers or Michael Mayer.
Seattle also has positive regression coming in the defensive red zone. Despite dominant numbers against the run, they’ve allowed the third-highest red zone touchdown percentage in the league. Good luck to Mendoza—the deck is stacked heavily against him.
Bet: Raiders team total under 16.5 points (–110)
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions (–2.5) in Munich, Germany
Jared Goff was limited in practice on Wednesday with a chest injury. This is something to monitor, especially since last week the Lions had an unusually and unexpectedly bad passing game. However, all of the other metrics in this game point to a high-scoring affair.
Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NFL in explosive pass rate allowed. Both teams rank in the top eight in explosive pass rate produced offensively. That combination usually is an automatic over bet for me, even on a total in the 50s. A.J. Brown returned to practice on Wednesday and seems on track to play in Munich.
Who knows how healthy Brown actually is, but he’s still a clear upgrade over New England’s current receiver group. The Lions struggle mightily against tight ends and against scrambling quarterbacks. Green Bay wasn’t a great matchup for Drake Maye (they’re good vs. tight ends and limit explosive plays). Detroit is the opposite on paper. That is if the Patriots offensive line can hold up long enough in pass protection.
We saw last week what an explosive downfield passing offense can do to this New England secondary, and Christian Gonzalez is still licking his wounds from last Sunday. Our final early morning international game of the season should be a high-scoring thriller.
Bet: Over 50.5 points (–115)
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+9.5)
The total for this game was as high as 46.5 when it opened last week, and all of the injury news has dropped it a full touchdown. The Cardinals lost wide receiver Michael Wilson and quarterback Gardner Minshew to injuries, and could be without two more starting offensive linemen from an already injured group. The Rams lost Puka Nacua, who has basically been the entire passing offense since the injury to Davante Adams. The Rams are in preservation mode, and they’ll be trying to lean on their defense and running game to an extreme degree this week so they can regroup and try to get healthier during their Week 11 bye.
One encouraging sign for the Rams was the performance of Myles Garrett last week. He had three sacks and a forced fumble, and he and Aaron Donald should be able to dominate an overmatched Cardinals offensive line in this game.
Carson Beck is making his NFL debut on Sunday—and he has no semblance of a running game, offensive line, or wide receivers. The only option for the Arizona offense is a healthy dose of Trey McBride. I suspect this will result in a lot of sacks for Garrett and Donald.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams do not have a downfield playmaker to take advantage of a weak Cardinals secondary. The top two receivers are Konata Mumpfield and Tutu Atwell. I know this total has adjusted massively downward, but I’m not sure it has moved far enough.
Bet: Under 39.5 points (–115)
Other Bets
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+10.5)
On Wednesday, Cam Ward reaffirmed a desire to get Gunnar Helm the ball more going forward. In the first six games of the season, Helm had nine receptions. He then had eight in the last two games prior to the bye. Cleveland and Cincinnati are among the league’s worst at defending tight ends, but the Jaguars have allowed the fewest yards to opposing tight ends. Still, I bet Helm over 2.5 receptions at +107 on Wednesday after hearing Ward’s comments.
The Titans also went into up-tempo and no-huddle sequences a lot more with a ton of success against the Bengals prior to the bye week. Even though they’re one of the worst teams in the league, they keep improving and could have even more wrinkles at home coming off the bye week. And Ward has looked considerably better when the Titans have embraced more tempo.
However, I don’t know how they’re going to stop the Jaguars offense in this game. Jacksonville uses the middle of the field more efficiently than every passing offense in the league, and the Titans are replacing safety Amani Hooker, whom they moved to Buffalo on Tuesday. Hooker had three interceptions against Joe Burrow, but otherwise, the Titans have offered basically zero resistance to the Browns and Bengals in the two games before the bye.
Despite me hating this matchup for Tennessee, the market has reached the peak on the Jaguars. It’s rarely going to be profitable to lay double digits on the road against a team coming off the bye in a division game. Instead of taking the Titans against the spread, I’m betting on their offense posing a real threat to the Jaguars.
Bet: Titans team total over 16.5 points (–125)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (–3)
The line for this game has been a real roller coaster during the trade deadline chaos. The lookahead line prior to kickoff on Monday night was Packers –3. Carson Wentz and the Vikings were so bad on MNF that the line jumped up near Packers –6 on the re-open on Tuesday. Then, the Vikings traded for Kirk Cousins, and now we’re right back where we started.
The Packers are such a high-variance team week-to-week. We know that the offense isn’t going to be able to run the ball against this Minnesota front, and Green Bay did not have a high offensive success rate when the two teams met in Week 1. The Packers are basically betting that if Jordan Love throws downfield often enough, he’ll connect on enough explosive plays. And since the Packers defense is designed to take away the middle of the field and big plays downfield, the big-play differential will consistently be in their favor.
Green Bay didn’t have issues hitting explosive plays against this Flores scheme in Week 1. Love was sacked four times, but he still completed seven passes of at least 20-plus yards. There’s no real way to stop an offense this talented and committed to hitting downfield throws.
We’ll go back to the well on two of our favorite Green Bay bets this season and avoid the uncertainty of how Cousins will look in his first game back for Minnesota.
Bets: Christian Watson longest reception over 26.5 yards (–114) and Matthew Golden longest reception over 24.5 yards (–114)
Games I’m Considering
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (–2.5)
The Panthers actually opened as favorites on Sunday night, but it didn’t take long for the market to flip to New Orleans. Now, the Saints are out to 2.5-point favorites as bettors continue to favor them in this NFC South clash. Whichever team wins this game will be alone in first place at 4-5.
Prior to the bye, the Saints were an entirely one-dimensional offense that relied heavily on Tyler Shough and the passing game to move the ball. It wasn’t working. Injuries to running back Travis Etienne Jr., right guard Cesar Ruiz, and left tackle Kelvin Banks crippled their rushing attack. With Banks and Ruiz back in the lineup on Sunday, and Audric Estime taking the bulk of the carries, the Saints offense had its most efficient rushing performance of the season by EPA per rush in an overtime win against Cleveland.
New Orleans struggled to finish drives in the red zone, fumbled on the goal line, and missed a field goal, but it was still its most balanced offensive box score of the season. And now with the return of Jordyn Tyson, the Saints have most of their full offensive skill group healthy.
The Panthers also finally have some good news with their injury report. On Wednesday, corners Will Lee III and Mike Jackson practiced in full. Critical pass rusher Jaelan Phillips practiced. The Panthers have been getting smashed defensively for multiple weeks without a secondary or pass rush, and it even cost Ejiro Evero his job. But with this line out to Saints –2.5, and the Panthers getting healthier, I’ll be sitting this one out now.
Bet: Consider Saints at –1 or better
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (+4.5)
I’ll be spending most of the time between now and kickoff on Sunday building the courage to actually hit submit on a Dallas +4.5 bet. The line does seem too high when you consider that the 49ers closed at –2.5 in Atlanta two and a half weeks ago, and the Cowboys still have one of the most potent offenses in the league. Even though Dallas has been in toss-up games with the Cardinals and Colts the last two weeks, they put up over 500 yards of offense against the Colts and have really found a running game since Tyler Smith returned to the offensive line.
There are two things that terrify me about betting Dallas. First is that the Cowboys burn so many hidden yards on penalties. Dallas is bottom five on both offense and defense in EPA lost on penalties, and that’s a sign of a poorly buttoned-up and coached team. Second is how bad they are at defending short passes. Last week, I wrote I was terrified for the Raiders because they were dead last in EPA per play allowed on passes from minus-5 to plus-5 air yards. The Cowboys are 30th. It could be a scheme master class for Kyle Shanahan, even without Mike Evans. It seems he’ll have Deebo Samuel Sr. back, and the offense is getting stopped only by its self-inflicted wounds right now.
Bet: Consider Cowboys +4.5, but you need courage
Notes on the Rest
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (–4.5)
- Just when you thought it couldn’t get more diabolical following a week of prime-time action that included Joey Fagnano and Carson Wentz, we get to watch Chargers-Ravens this Monday night.
- The market still isn’t pricing the Chargers as a bottom-five team in the NFL. In fact, market-derived power ratings have six teams worse than LAC. If you think they are a bottom-five team, you should probably bet the Ravens here.
- The one unit that had graded well for the Chargers was the pass defense. Then C.J. Stroud and the Texans completely shredded them.
- I do think Jacoby Brissett is a considerable upgrade from Tyler Huntley, but I’m not sure Brissett will make the offense explosive enough to warrant them laying nearly a full touchdown here.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+7.5)
- Is the Bills defense actually fixed since their bye week? Or did they just play Joey Fagnano and Carson Wentz in back-to-back weeks? The Bills have made personnel and schematic changes and have now added Amani Hooker, but we need more data.
- The Jets are offering zero resistance along the defensive line right now without key linemen David Onyemata and T’Vondre Sweat. In the past four weeks, only the Raiders have a worse success rate allowed.
- Buffalo can probably run the ball all over the Jets on Sunday and dominate in time of possession.
- This feels like the bet will come down to whether or not Geno Smith can engineer a backdoor touchdown drive or two. I’ll pass.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
- I think this number should probably be Chiefs –3, but I don’t really like the matchup for the Falcons on either side of the ball, so this is a pass.
- The Falcons offense is heavily reliant on generating explosive run plays, and the Chiefs have allowed just eight all season. That’s the second fewest in the NFL.
- On the other side of the matchup, Kansas City isn’t generating big plays through the air and relies on big runs to get explosives. Atlanta has allowed a ton of big runs this year. Just look at what the Buccaneers did to them two weeks ago.
- Atlanta struggles when Michael Penix Jr. is under pressure, and you can be sure that Steve Spagnuolo will heat up Penix constantly.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (–3.5)
- My numbers tell me I’m supposed to bet the Colts here, but I don’t think I can lay 3.5 in a game where the Colts have Laquon Treadwell, Anthony Gould, and Ashton Dulin as their receivers. Just no explosiveness.
- The Dolphins have the second-worst defense against the run in the league, ahead of only New Orleans through nine weeks. The Colts should be able to run the ball with both Jonathan Taylor and Seth McGowan.
- Kyle McCord, who is starting for the Dolphins this week at QB, is a former sixth-round pick who was terrible in the 2025 preseason but then excelled in the 2026 preseason and earned himself a backup job.
- McCord was very capable from a clean pocket in college and often wilted under pressure, but it’s hard to imagine a better first NFL opponent than the Colts, who produce no havoc on defense.
- There are ultimately better games to bet.
