It took until only Week 8 for one team to finally throw in the towel on the season. The Colts were competitive with Minnesota on the scoreboard, but their totally anemic passing game, plus their embarrassing loss to Tennessee the week prior, prompted Indianapolis to trade both Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner from its usually reliable trenches on both sides of the ball.
The Jaguars opened as a 7.5-point favorite for their divisional home game against the Colts, but the market has pushed them out to –9.5 following the trades. The looming NFL trade deadline only further complicates the week-to-week nature of betting markets. The Seahawks will presumably have Nelson in their starting lineup on Monday night when they play the Bears, but how much immediate impact can he have on a struggling run offense?
That’s part of the fun of figuring out the NFL every week. After a 4-4 record last week, this column is 28-23 through the opening seven weeks of the season and 19-16 on the Favorite Five.
Thursday Night Football
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (–3.5)
There’s good news and bad news for the Panthers entering this Thursday night game at Lambeau Field. The bad news is that on Sunday at home against Tampa, their run defense got exposed yet again, and it’s been an ongoing problem under defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. Since the start of 2022, when Evero became DC, the Panthers are dead last in rushing success rate allowed.
The good news is that Carolina is playing one of the most anemic rush attacks in football. The Packers haven’t been able to run it on anyone, and the return of Josh Jacobs didn’t help them on Sunday in a close loss to the Lions. Green Bay is dead last in rushing success rate, and the entire offense is built around Jordan Love’s ability to connect on downfield passes to Matthew Golden, Tucker Kraft, and Christian Watson. The Packers have attempted the second-most downfield passes in the NFL.
The Panthers’ secondary is still without Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson and now plays an offense with the firepower to exploit this. After games against the Eagles backups and the Bucs in a weird game state where Baker Mayfield barely threw the ball, we’ll see how the back seven holds up. Evero typically tries to take away big plays.
The Packers aren’t reliable enough to consistently move the ball or cover spreads because their offense is so boom-or-bust, but Love will keep tossing the ball downfield. It’s a high-variance matchup against a defense that doesn’t usually allow explosive pass plays but has faced few offenses with this kind of firepower.
The Panthers offense has been considerably better when Jalen Coker is in the lineup, especially when he’s operating out of the slot. However, Green Bay has the best defense between the hashes and against slot receivers. The Packers can be exploited on the boundaries, but Jonathan Gannon’s defense has shown an improved level of schematic adaptability compared to years past.
Bet: Consider Jalen Coker under 62.5 yards
The Favorite Five (19-16)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–2.5)
Both the Falcons and Buccaneers enter this critical NFC South clash following notable upset victories. The Falcons beat the 49ers because of a plus-4 turnover differential, despite being outgained by more than 100 yards and 1.5 yards per play. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay ran all over the Panthers’ porous run defense, capitalized on turnovers, and relied on its underrated defense to move within a game of first place in the division.
Michael Penix Jr. excelled by throwing the ball quickly and completing underneath throws last week, which is different from how he’s usually been successful in NFL games. His average depth of target dropped from 7.7 in his first four starts of 2026 to 6.1 in the win against San Francisco. I don’t think this same passing strategy will work against the Buccaneers. The Bucs rank third in defensive EPA per pass against passes traveling 10 air yards or fewer.
Tampa also features a top-five run defense by EPA per rush, which has been a staple of this era of Bucs football. Only the Ravens and Vikings have a better run defense efficiency than Tampa since the start of 2022. If the Bucs can contain Bijan Robinson, they’ll significantly limit the quality of this Atlanta offense. Penix is the league’s worst QB when under duress this season.
We still don’t know how healthy Baker Mayfield is since he wasn’t forced to throw much at all in the win against Carolina. The Buccaneers won’t be able to run the ball nearly as well on this Atlanta front, but the Bucs will likely have key offensive pieces Emeka Egbuka and Luke Goedeke back in the lineup. I won’t be surprised if this line closes at Bucs –3 by Sunday as the respect for this underrated Bucs defense continues to grow. It has now held Carolina, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Green Bay to under 20 points in regulation in consecutive games.
Bet: Buccaneers –2.5 (–105)
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (–1.5)
It’s very easy to sit here and say that you have an opportunity to bet a Klint Kubiak–coached team against an Aaron Glenn–coached team at basically even money and that you’d be a fool not to take that chance. I wouldn’t blame you for making the handicap of this game that simple.
There’s also an argument that this is a massive step down in opponent quality for the Raiders, who just played the Rams, Bills, Patriots, and Chiefs in consecutive games and now get to take on the considerably worse Jets. All of that is reasonable, but I’ll make the case that the Jets are underrated in this spot as a toss-up at home.
On Sunday, the Jets offense should be as healthy as it has been all season. Breece Hall is expected back, and the return of Adonai Mitchell and the emergence of Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq give New York a massive skill-position group advantage against a Raiders secondary that has struggled in coverage the past five weeks.
Despite all of the Jets’ offensive injuries—and bad-weather home games against the Packers and Browns—New York has been a league-average dropback passing offense this season.
The Raiders offense ranks inside the top five in EPA per dropback this season, so on paper, they should have an advantage there. But the gap isn’t as big as the metrics suggest because Vegas has played only one true outdoor game. Four home games at Allegiant plus road trips to Los Angeles and New Orleans have given them prime offensive playing conditions in controlled environments.
Las Vegas can get away with being one-dimensional in pristine indoor games, but its complete lack of a run game will lead to issues on the road here. The team is bottom five in every rushing category.
The Raiders have the better coach and offensive play caller. They’ll probably be better in the final two minutes of the halves. But the Jets have a multidimensional offense, and the market is overreacting to their embarrassing loss against the Dolphins.
Bet: Jets –1.5 (–110)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (–5.5)
It didn’t take long for the market to adjust to how bad the Eagles offense is as its best players continue to get hurt. Jalen Hurts is done for the year, and Lane Johnson retired. Their three best offensive skill players—DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, and Saquon Barkley—are all battling leg injuries. All three are in doubt to play on Sunday, and as we saw with Barkley on Monday night, even if they suit up, it’s unlikely any of them will be close to 100 percent. The betting markets rate this offense as the worst in the NFL without them, and that is the correct rating.
Even though Makai Lemon found some holes in a soft Dallas zone and the Eagles ran the ball better on Monday, this offense lacks explosiveness, and backup QB Tanner McKee missed multiple underneath throws that would have extended drives. It will be really hard for them to run on Washington, who has been good against the run this year (except against the 49ers).
The market has caught up to the Eagles’ offensive futility, but it has not yet caught up to how relatively bad the defense is.
Eagles Defensive Metrics in 2026
There’s still a lot of talent on this defense, but the edge rushers are all battling injuries. Nolan Smith didn’t play Monday, and Jalyx Hunt and Jonathan Greenard look compromised. Cooper DeJean and Jalen Carter look considerably worse than they’ve been in past seasons, and Vic Fangio hasn’t shown a willingness to bring extra pressure. There are more holes in this defense than its still great defensive market rating would suggest.
The market opened Washington as a 4.5-point favorite at home. It has a massive rest advantage and should be much healthier coming off the bye.
This is the fifth time that an Eagles fade has made it into this column, and we’re looking to make it a clean 5-0 (after correct calls against Tennessee, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Dallas). The Eagles haven’t hit rock bottom yet, but Monday night’s lackluster defensive effort suggests that it’s nearing.
Bet: Commanders –5.5 (–110)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+1.5)
There are two distinct passing profiles that can work for an NFL quarterback. You can either have a high average depth of target and throw it downfield with a lower completion percentage or have a low ADOT with a high completion rate. Bo Nix is currently in the corner of the chart where you don’t want to be.
Through seven games, Nix is near the likes of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Brady Cook, Trevor Siemian, and Dillon Gabriel as a quarterback with both a super-low ADOT and completion percentage. None of those other four are starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
And yet, Nix’s Broncos are 5-2 this year! The Broncos are also 5-2 against the spread! Denver has consistently beaten more tepid market expectations for the second straight season. It has overcome injuries on the defensive side of the ball and has a chance to take control of the AFC West with a win against the Chiefs.
Kansas City dominated the first meeting between these two teams, in large part because the Broncos simply could not tackle. Kansas City ran the ball well, found a ton of explosives through Kenneth Walker III, and cruised to a 31-10 win at home.
The Chiefs defense showed some real weaknesses against the Seahawks on Sunday. It still isn’t getting pressure, and Seattle picked on slot corner L’Jarius Sneed by completing numerous passes over the middle to extend drives on third downs. The Chiefs recognized Sneed’s issues and eventually benched him. Given Nix’s aversion to the middle of the field, the Broncos may not be able to take advantage of this. The Chiefs still don’t allow many big plays—only Seattle has allowed fewer in 2026.
Denver’s offense managed 30 points last week but had just a 37.5 percent success rate against one of the worst defenses in the league. It’s going to struggle against the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offensive weaknesses were just exposed by the first good defense they’ve played since Week 1. It’s much easier to run the ball on Denver than it is on Seattle, but we’re still talking about an offense with no vertical or downfield passing playmaker.
The Chiefs are also missing a key element of their offense as Patrick Mahomes continues to recover from his knee injury. His EPA on scrambles has cratered as a result:
With Mahomes and Nix much less effective as scramblers this year, both offenses will be hampered. Points will be at a premium, and this total should not be above 40.
Bet: Under 41.5 points (–110)
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (–10.5)
The Titans are 28th in EPA/drive margin, but here’s the kicker: They’ve played one of the easiest schedules of opponents in the league. And the only two above-average teams (by betting ratings) they played were the Ravens and Texans. They lost 26-3 to Houston at home and were trailing the Ravens 24-7 at halftime before Lamar Jackson left the game with an injury and Tyler Huntley led a prevent offense in the second half. Tennessee made the final score look respectable, but it was completely outclassed.
The Titans match last week came down to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer, but Cleveland completely dominated the box score. The Browns averaged 7.4(!) yards per play and had almost 500 yards of offense. The Titans aren’t being rated low enough by betting markets.
The Bengals defense has plenty of holes over the middle and in the secondary, but it’s getting pressure without blitzing and is well-built to slow down bad passing offenses.
Cincinnati ranks 32nd in blitz rate yet is second in the league in sack rate, behind only Minnesota. The only receiver in the Tennessee offense you’d trust to beat a man-heavy Cincy defense is Carnell Tate. And he missed practice on Wednesday with a shoulder issue.
There’s always backdoor risk here, but Cincinnati’s offense should be able to do whatever it wants against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.
Bet: Bengals –10.5 (–110)
Other Bets
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (–3.5)
“Will Lamar Jackson play for Baltimore this weekend?” is a question that has perplexed NFL fans, insiders, bettors, and fantasy players for what feels like half of each season for the past four years. Jackson participated in drills at Wednesday’s practice with tape on his injured ankle and appears to be on track to return Sunday. If he does play, the next question to ask is how much he’ll be limited as a runner.
He ran for only 71 total yards in the four games following his return from a hamstring injury last season. The explosiveness of the offense will be considerably limited if Jackson can’t be an effective scrambler and part of the running game.
If Jackson is anything close to 100 percent, this will be a dream matchup for the Ravens. The Bills have an extremely limited defense against both the run and the pass, and they haven’t shown much of a penchant for stopping Derrick Henry in the past. Buffalo has had consistent issues allowing explosive runs for multiple seasons, and it now has one of the most unique statistical profiles for an NFL team in the 21st century.
It’s the only team to sit two full standard deviations from the mean on both offense and defense through seven weeks.
Bet: Ravens +3.5 (–122)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7)
This is a nightmare matchup for the Dolphins’ pass defense. Miami has been awful against downfield passes this season, allowing 0.87 EPA per dropback (30th) on passes of at least 10 air yards.
Against Drake Maye, that’s a tough way to live. Maye struggled with downfield passing in the first three games of the season, but he’s looked like a different quarterback in the past month. No quarterback has added more EPA on passes 10-plus yards downfield since Week 4 than Maye.
New England’s offense also doesn’t like to get conservative or sit on the lead. As it showed against the Raiders, it’ll continue to throw the ball downfield to press its advantage. The Dolphins defense is in for a long afternoon.
Bet: Patriots team total over 26.5 (–110)
Games I’m Considering
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (–3.5)
This season, it has been incredibly profitable to bet against teams traveling back from Europe. However, the trend does not hold up if you zoom out to include seasons past, so I think it’s mostly statistical noise. The Browns got a sizable market upgrade for their box score thrashing of the Titans, but I just wrote earlier how I felt that said a lot more about the quality of the Titans than anything else.
The Steelers defense is much healthier on the back end for this game than it was when the two teams met in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football. It was one of Cleveland’s best games of the season, but Thursdays are notoriously weird, and I still think Pittsburgh should be closer to a 4-point favorite at home.
This line has gone back and forth between Pittsburgh –3 and –3.5 all week. At –3, I’m buying the Steelers at home.
Bet: Consider Steelers –3
Notes on the Rest
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (–8.5)
- The market may get to Jacksonville –10 by kickoff, at which point I’d bet on Indianapolis if no other trades happen before Sunday.
- The Colts will have to replace DeForest Buckner, but both Adetomiwa Adebawore and J.T. Tuimoloau have flashed in recent weeks in the middle of the Colts defense.
- Sauce Gardner and Tyler Warren were both limited participants in the Colts’ walk-through on Wednesday. Warren’s return is especially important against a Jaguars defense that allows teams to move the ball and won’t bring a ton of pressure (it has below-average blitz rates) on a pressure-sensitive Daniel Jones. Besides Jonathan Taylor, the Colts offense has been totally devoid of playmakers the last two weeks.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (–3.5)
- I was a bit surprised to see the market move off of Detroit –3 early in the week after another dominant Vikings defensive performance.
- After Ben Johnson got the better of Brian Flores in both 2023 and 2024, Flores dominated the Lions offense in both meetings last year. What new wrinkles will Lions OC Drew Petzing have for the offense against Flores? The Lions offense took a step back in its down-to-down consistency last year, but Petzing has it humming back near the top of the league in success rate in 2026.
- Kyler Murray has struggled to build a consistent connection with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but he has had a lot of success targeting T.J. Hockenson, and the Lions are 31st in DVOA against tight ends this season.
- The Vikings can be exploited over the middle and between the hashes, areas Flores often vacates to bring extra pressure when he blitzes.
- If I had to bet this, I’d take Detroit, but I think it’s worth playing the tight ends in props and avoiding a bet against Flores.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (–6.5)
- Dallas added an extra offensive lineman and went a lot more run-heavy on Monday night against Philadelphia.
- Philly’s total lack of a pass rush enabled Dak Prescott to finally throw the ball down the field and hunt explosive plays.
- The Cowboys defense is noticeably better with both Joey Porter Jr. and DeMarvion Overshown in the lineup, but I don’t think one game against the Eagles offense should dramatically change our opinions.
- Arizona doesn’t have the talent to execute the approach Todd Bowles and Jonathan Gannon used to stifle this offense.
- The total lack of explosiveness from the Cardinals offense and the general run heaviness from Dallas make this total of 54.5 awfully high, even if both defenses love to give up big plays.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (–3)
- The best new offensive head coach in the NFL against the best new defensive head coach in the NFL is a really fun matchup of two coaches I don’t want to make a habit of betting against.
- Chicago’s run offense grades out really well this season, but basically no one has been able to consistently run the ball against the Seahawks. Seattle’s defense is top five in adjusted line yards, top five in stuff rate, and first in EPA per rush allowed this year.
- On the other side of the ball, Seattle, now with Quenton Nelson, should have a considerable advantage against an underwhelming Bears run defense. Chicago will try to heat up Sam Darnold, and he’s been a disaster against pressure this year.
- If Darnold doesn’t turn it over, Seattle will be the better team on a down-to-down basis. But that’s a big “if” these days.
- Kyler Gordon has been a huge standout as a slot blitzer for the Chicago defense, which has played well above its talent level under Dennis Allen this season.
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (–6.5)
- The Rams reminded us all that they are first in net yards in the whole NFL for a reason last week with their dominant road win against Las Vegas.
- It sounds like the Chargers could get three starters back on offense off the bye week—including Ladd McConkey and Joe Alt, who are critically important.
- The Chargers defense is a clearly above-average unit that is taking away explosive plays. Against a Rams team that doesn’t have an over-the-top threat and has to be methodical, 6.5 points start to be a lot on essentially a neutral field.
- What should the Rams’ home-field advantage even be worth in this game?
- If the line gets back to Rams –7, I’ll be on the Chargers for a few dollars.
