The NFL may own a day of the week in our lives, but that doesn’t mean all NFL slates are created equal. In fact, if Lamar Jackson doesn’t play in Week 7, then Sunday’s early football window will be one of the worst early windows I can remember. There are seven games scheduled for that time:
- The J.J. McCarthy–led Giants as a double-digit underdog vs. the Texans.
- The Vikings, whose games usually feature as many punts as points, vs. the Colts.
- Dolphins vs. Jets (no further commentary needed).
- Bengals vs. the Lamar-less Ravens.
- Browns vs. Titans (again, no further commentary needed).
- The Bucs’ NFC South opener vs. the Panthers.
- 49ers vs. Falcons…
The 49ers-Falcons tilt is the best of the bunch, but it still features a team that’s 2-4. But just because the early window isn’t particularly exciting on paper doesn’t mean we don’t have games to analyze and bets to make. The NFL has loaded up on a compelling prime-time slate yet again, starting with a Patriots-Bears matchup of the quarterbacks who went first and third in the 2024 draft.
After a 4-3 week in Week 6, this column is 24-19 for the season and 17-13 on the Favorite Five. Let’s keep the good vibes rolling.
Thursday Night Football
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-3)
Kyler Gordon’s return made a huge difference for the Bears’ ability to generate pressure. He had two forced fumbles and three sacks against Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons. Dennis Allen brought pressure over and over again and took advantage of the fact that Penix had struggled under duress this season. Because the Bears were in a positive game script the entire time, Atlanta couldn’t lean on Bijan Robinson and the running game much at all. The Falcons were constantly in obvious passing downs, and it wasn’t until garbage time—with the score at 31-8—that Atlanta found any offensive consistency.
My concern for the Bears defense in this matchup is that Drake Maye has been elite against the blitz since the start of 2025. In fact, only Lamar Jackson averages a higher EPA per dropback against blitzing defenses in that time frame. However, the Patriots’ pressure pickup plan is complicated by the injuries along the offensive line. New England will be without starting left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker as well as backup right guard Ben Brown, who had replaced the previously injured Mike Onwenu. Even if Morgan Moses is able to go at right tackle, the Patriots will be trying to organize a makeshift offensive line on the fly. That’s a hard thing to do before a short-week road game. They’re also trying to manage a cluster of corner injuries defensively. Zak Kuhr probably will need to call a more conservative game to prevent explosive plays.
New England and Chicago have been two of the most methodical offenses in the NFL this year. Neither is in the top eight in explosive play rate, and both are in the top quarter of NFL offenses in plays per drive. The Patriots will be desperate to stay ahead of the chains and avoid passing downs with their makeshift offensive line, and the Bears will continue to play their ball control-centric offense.
These are two good offenses on a short week, so betting an under is inherently risky. But with how methodical and run-heavy these two teams have been, I expect a lower scoring game than this lofty market total indicates.
Bet: Under 50.5 (-110)
The Favorite Five (17-13)
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
It might surprise you to see the 3-3 Seahawks rated higher in the betting markets than the 5-0 Chiefs. Seattle has dramatically underperformed its fundamental metrics. They’ve had two consecutive three-point losses to the 49ers and Broncos, and all three of their losses were driven by turnovers.
A lot of people blame the lack of a Seattle run game for the team’s overall offensive issues, but I think it’s wrong to say the Seahawks’ run game was any better last year.
While these numbers did improve as the season went on, they were still below average. Seattle enters Week 7 fourth in combined success rate on offense and defense, which suggests that this team is still elite down-to-down. The problem is actually the turnovers and lack of passing explosiveness. Seattle is 29th in net EPA from turnovers. I think that will regress to the mean, but I’m not sure what this offense is if they can’t consistently generate explosive plays like they did last season. Last year they ranked fourth in explosive pass play rate—this year they’re 17th. That’s been the biggest change from Klint Kubiak to new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury.
Seattle still has its elite run defense. It doesn’t allow big plays, and now it faces a Chiefs offense missing its primary big-play threats. Add in the lack of passing explosiveness for the Seahawks offense under Fleury, and you’re left with a low scoring battle on Sunday night.
Bet: Under 42.5 points (-110)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
It’s not an exaggeration to say that the Eagles are currently running the worst-schemed offense in the entire NFL. The offense has been decimated by injuries, but they’re also off-the-charts bad at the under-center plays that they hired Sean Mannion to install. The Eagles are allowing unblocked pressures at the highest rate in the league. They’ve been awful against the blitz. They’re bad at generating yards before contact on the ground. And it’s not like they have played a difficult schedule of opposing defenses thus far. The Eagles struggled to consistently move the ball against the Commanders in Week 1, the Titans in Week 2, and the Bears in Week 3 when most of the first-team offense was healthy. Now that they’re down to Tanner McKee at quarterback, a fourth-string running back, and a makeshift offensive line, they may be too inept to take advantage of even a truly terrible Dallas defense.
The Eagles’ offensive numbers are absolutely stunning:
Three-and-out rate: 32nd
Points per drive: 26th
Success rate when not blitzed: 29th
Success rate when blitzed: 31st
The offense bottoming out has overshadowed the defensive decline, but that’s real too. The Eagles aren’t generating pressure consistently, and they’re not getting off the field enough. Philly is 19th in points per drive allowed, 23rd in defensive success rate, and now plays a Dallas offense that is underrated. The Cowboys offense put in two consecutive stinker performances in prime time, but they are still first in average drive distance and have the lowest three-and-out rate in the league.
No matter how bad the Dallas defense is, the Eagles have the worst offense in the NFL by my power ratings right now. Maybe they’ll ditch the under-center looks and try to go more shotgun spread to salvage the offense, but I doubt it. This season is quickly spiraling for Philadelphia, and we have not hit the bottom yet.
Bet: Dallas -4.5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
The Titans played on a fast Indianapolis playing surface against one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week and managed just 102 passing yards and 11 first downs. Tennessee won the game because its special teams produced a blocked-punt touchdown and a separate huge punt return. But it was a miracle that even 46 total points were scored in that game given how little down-to-down success the Titans offense had.
Cleveland has put together one game with a quality success rate this season—and it was a home game on a Thursday night against a depleted Pittsburgh secondary. That game increasingly looks like the outlier. If you remove it from the sample, Cleveland has the fifth-lowest offensive success rate in the NFL at 36 percent.
The Titans defense dialed up a lot more pressure last week in Indianapolis, and was immensely successful at generating quick pressure on Daniel Jones. It’s hard to bet an under on a total this low in normal weather conditions, but the total should be below 37.
Bet: Under 37.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
It’s very easy to cite the Vikings’ dismal season-long offensive stats here and say that they’re laying too many points against a competent Colts roster. Even if Minnesota is at home and coming off a bye, the Chiefs were laying this price to Indianapolis in Week 2! We’ve come a long way in downgrading the Colts and upgrading the Vikings to then make Minnesota the same price in Week 7. But I think this is a nightmare matchup for the Colts.
For starters, Minnesota has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and the Colts offense is predicated around good early-down offense that keeps them ahead of the chains. The teams who have success against Brian Flores usually have explosive downfield playmakers and an elite middle-of-the-field operator. Flores will leave the middle open, he’ll risk allowing big plays. With Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce out injured, the Colts totally lack an ability to generate chunk plays. Flores will stress test Daniel Jones, and I don’t have much faith in Jones to handle it well. The Colts are just 23rd in success rate against the blitz this year. When Tennessee generated quick pressures last week, Jones rushed into bad decisions and could have easily had more than the two turnovers he finished the game with.
Minnesota hasn’t had a full-strength offense very often either. Kyler Murray didn’t play in the first two weeks. Justin Jefferson missed most of Weeks 3 and 4. And in Week 5, Minnesota had its best game of the season on offense with 5.4 yards per play and a balanced attack in New Orleans.
Now with a bye to continue to get healthy on offense, the Vikings could start to look more like the league-average offense I thought they’d be in the preseason.
This is one of the biggest mismatches in defensive havoc created in the league. Indianapolis is generating next to no negative plays defensively, while Minnesota will be pressuring a toothless Colts offense repeatedly.
The market moved this from Minnesota -5.5 out to -6.5, and I’d bet it up until -7.
Bet: Minnesota -6.5 (-110)
New York Giants at Houston Texans (-10.5)
The Texans defense stunk again last week, and it’s starting to get hard to continue to make excuses for them as they continue their year-over-year downfall. Against Jacksonville in London, there was basically no pass rush on either end—and field conditions made it really difficult for the defensive backs to cover, too. Still, I’ll be riding with the Texans defense until the bitter end this year, or until I run out of money.
The Texans have played the toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL, and their two games against Indianapolis and Tennessee looked much more like what we expected their defense to be before the season. It’s another get-right spot for Houston at home against J.J. McCarthy, who will be making his first start as a Giant.
McCarthy looked like prime Eli Manning in his fourth-quarter cameo last week in comeback mode against a terrible Saints defense. He threw for an absurd 243 yards on 11 completions. The Vikings aren’t infallible in their evaluation of quarterback play, but it’s a bad look for McCarthy that he couldn’t beat out Carson Wentz for the backup job in training camp. It’s also not encouraging that the betting odds moved from Houston -9.5 to -10.5 upon news that McCarthy would be starting.
The last four Giants games have come down to the final play, but the team hasn't played any good teams in this run. Last-second wins against the Titans and Cardinals, followed by back-to-back weeks where they trailed the Commanders and Saints by double-digits in the fourth quarter, is not the sign of a competitive football team.
The Giants offense is essentially one-dimensional since Jaxson Dart’s injury—they’re 30th in EPA per rush. If McCarthy has to drop back into a ton of passing downs, Sunday will not go well.
And on the other side, Houston’s offense finally has multiple emerging receiver options around Nico Collins. Jaylin Noel ranks 12th in yards per route run amongst receivers with at least 10 receptions this season. Houston wins by multiple scores and continues its march toward the playoffs.
Bet: Houston -10.5 (-110)
Other Bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Baker Mayfield returned to practice on Wednesday, and Todd Bowles is expected to make a decision on the quarterback’s status on Friday. I fully expect Mayfield to return for Tampa Bay, and I don’t think The Ringer 107’s favorite team in 2026 should be catching a full 3.5 points. In fact, I think the line should be Carolina -3. That extra half tick is super valuable, and you could make the case that this is actually the best defense that Carolina has faced all season. Through six weeks, the Bucs are fourth in EPA per drive allowed. They’re the only top-10 unit (by that metric) that Carolina has played.
Carolina’s season-long offensive metrics are still driven by two elite games against the terrible secondaries of the Bears and Lions that Bryce Young threw all over. Carolina hasn’t been able to establish the run early in games—they rank 30th in first-half EPA per rush. Chuba Hubbard has found success later on, but that’s mostly since Carolina has been leading often in second halves, and did especially well against Atlanta and Philadelphia.
Bet: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-115)
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) (in Paris)
The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday night, but by lunchtime on Monday, the market moved to 3. Many books have since even moved the line further to Pittsburgh -3.5. Basically, the market isn’t buying much into the Saints’ win over the Giants. New Orleans benefitted from numerous short fields and four Giants turnovers to score 34 points. They still averaged just 4.7 yards per play, and I suspect that’s why the market was dubious of upgrading them.
It’s clear to me that the Saints offense has changed since Tyler Shough suffered multiple broken bones in his left hand. In the first four weeks of the season, Shough averaged 8.0 air yards per attempt. In the last two weeks, that number has dipped to 5.7. The way to attack the Pittsburgh defense right now is with downfield passing because there are holes in the secondary. If Shough is compromised and still without much of a running game, this offense becomes quite predictable and easy to defend for Patrick Graham’s Steelers.
Bet: Steelers -3 or better (-120 or better)
Games I’m Considering
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3)
Since the Lions became an NFC contender, this has been one of my favorite matchups every year. And recently, I’ve always lined up behind Green Bay. In fact, I checked my records and I’ve bet the Packers—either against the spread or their team total—in each of the last five meetings between these NFC North foes. The Packers are 4-1 in their last five against the spread in this rivalry, dating back to their Thanksgiving upset in 2023.
But I will not be betting the Packers in this game, unless the line gets to 3.5. Green Bay’s lack of offensive consistency is tough to back on the road against a team as methodical and efficient as Detroit. Even when facing the Cowboys last week, Green Bay was not able to establish any type of running presence and had to keep throwing the ball. Against the Lions, that can be a good thing given how bad the Lions secondary is, but it’s a difficult way to keep pace in a game where I don’t expect a ton of stops. Just look at the gap in offensive success rate between these two teams:
Offensive Success Rate
Lions: 51.2 percent (3rd)
Packers: 40.2 percent (24th)
Even if you want to control for just the last three weeks, when Green Bay went 3-0, their offensive success rate is just 36.9 percent. The Packers aren’t consistent enough to warrant this price in Detroit. Detroit’s secondary will have a limited Brian Branch back this week, and while the secondary still stinks, the Lions can at least stop the run and get pressure.
Consider Lions -3
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
The Falcons are dealing with significant injuries to their back seven, and that’s bad news ahead of a matchup with the 49ers’ offensive machine. Top corner A.J. Terrell remains on injured reserve, while C.J. Henderson is listed as questionable, and linebackers Kendal Daniels and Divine Deablo are also in doubt for Sunday.
Because they are sitting at 6-0 and have a bye next week, San Francisco is also incentivized to be more cautious with its injured players as well. The offense really struggled on Monday night following the departure of Mike Evans, and he’s been a massive difference maker for them in both contested catch and red zone situations this year.
The Falcons opened at +3.5 and it didn’t take long for the sharp money to bet the underdog. Situationally, this is a great spot on paper for Atlanta too. It’s their third straight game at home, while San Francisco is traveling across the country on a short week after the Monday night win against the Commanders.
If this line gets back to +3.5, I’d grab Atlanta. But at +3, I don’t think there’s much to do.
Consider Falcons +3.5
Notes on the Rest
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-4.5)
- Another week where we don’t know the status of key Jets offensive players Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall as of Wednesday. Hall didn’t practice Wednesday, while Mitchell was limited.
- The Dolphins are no longer my worst power-rated football team, and I actually have three offenses (Cleveland, Philadelphia, Tennessee) rated worse on offense. They’re rated close to the Jets and even with the Giants offense.
- Miami has the extra rest coming off a bye, and that extra prep time could be increasingly beneficial for a rookie head coach and really young roster to try to gel.
- It looks to me like “one of the worst pass defenses ever” won’t be the case for this Miami team this year. It’s a unit that could improve as the season goes on.
- It’s Miami or nothing here.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)
- The status of Lamar Jackson remains extremely uncertain. He didn’t practice on Wednesday. Even if he does play, will he run at the same rate we’re used to? Traditionally, his running metrics decline when he’s returning from injury.
- The primary weakness of the Cincinnati defense is the linebackers and safeties’ inability to cover the middle of the field. But do the Ravens have any faith in Mark Andrews?
- If it ends up being Tyler Huntley, then this total shouldn’t be higher than 45. He’s taking zero risk to throw the ball down the field, and Jesse Minter’s defense has embraced two high safeties at a very high rate. The Bengals will be forced to be super methodical. Points will be at a premium.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
- I agree with Ryan Fitzpatrick that Bo Nix isn’t playing competitive football right now, and his lack of scrambling raises questions about his viability as a starter. He wasn’t good last year, yet the Denver offense has still taken a remarkable step down in overall efficiency.
- However, this is the easiest defensive matchup he’s had all season. The Cardinals played a very conservative shell defense against Matthew Stafford, which worked. They forced everything underneath, didn’t allow many explosives, and kept a lid on that offense. I’ll be interested to see if they repeat this plan against the Broncos, even as Nix has refused to throw the ball down the field. A more aggressive approach could dare Nix to throw it down the field, which he’s been unwilling to do.
- The Broncos generate pressure at an elite rate, and Jacoby Brissett has been terrible under pressure this season. The Cardinals are 23rd in EPA per dropback when the QB is pressured since the start of 2025. A lot of that is Brissett. That is why I’m not betting the Cardinals, even though I am tempted to do so.
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5)
- The Rams are now dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball following a stunning home loss to the Cardinals. Davante Adams will miss six to 10 weeks, and their receiver depth isn’t very good. They’re down multiple defensive linemen, which won’t matter much against a bad Raiders run offense, but is sure to make a difference in future weeks.
- Matthew Stafford has struggled with his accuracy on passes down the field. And if we’ve seen anything from this Raider defense, they are vulnerable to good downfield passing from the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and even Tyler Shough when he was healthy.
- This is the third time that the Raiders have been +4.5 at home against an elite team. They covered against both the Chiefs and Bills with backdoor touchdowns, even though both covers were clearly deserved by the underlying box scores.
- Rams special teams have a –35.8 net EPA this year. The next worst is San Francisco at –17.2. That is a massive chasm that makes me skittish to bet the Rams as a road favorite against a competent Raiders team.
- The Rams are first in net yards in the NFL, and would still be no worse than a toss-up on a neutral field against every other NFL team right now.
