Week 5 in the NFL felt like a new low for endgame management in the NFL. Coaches’ continued inability to correctly manage the clock is turning wins into ties and losses. Just ask Nick Sirianni, Dan Quinn, and Sean McVay. All three are at least somewhat responsible for stunning late-game failures. It’s gotten so bad that Dave Canales, whose Panthers had a bye in Week 5, joked in a press conference about all of the mistakes he witnessed from his couch.
Last week was a stern reminder that we often bet actual dollars on—and invest our hearts and souls in—multibillion-dollar organizations that cannot handle basic game theory. And yet, I cannot wait to see which coach and/or player will screw it up this week. You simply can’t look away.
After a 3-4 record last week (thanks for nothing, Harrison Mevis), this column is 20-17 on the season.
Thursday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
The Sean Payton–era Broncos rarely win games because of their offense, but it’s alarming to watch just how much worse that unit is this year than it was in the opening five games of last season. In 2025, Denver was 13th in EPA per drive in the opening five weeks. It’s fallen all the way to 26th in 2026 despite similar personnel and the addition of Jaylen Waddle. It would be easy to blame new play caller Davis Webb for this, but I’m instead looking at Bo Nix.
Nix has scrambled only four times this season—he had 13 in each of the last two seasons by this point, per TruMedia. Plus, his scrambling has gotten much worse.
Nix has always added a ton of value as a scrambler, but he’s giving the Broncos zero in that department thus far. Once you add in Nix’s struggles from the pocket, you’re left with an extremely limited passing offense.
And now they get to face an elite and well-schemed Seattle defense that is second in EPA per play allowed behind only the Vikings. It’s hard to draw up a path to offensive points for Denver in this game unless Seattle’s offense continues to turn the ball over at a ridiculous rate, setting Denver up with elite field position.
The Seahawks have turned the ball over eight times in their last three games. After last year’s regular season, which they finished with the second-most turnovers in the NFL, it’s fair to say that this is an ongoing problem.
But on a down-to-down basis, Seattle is fourth in combined success rate, and Denver is 28th. The gap is too big to justify the spread being less than a field goal.
Bet: Seahawks –2.5 (–112)
The Favorite Five (14-11)
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (–2.5) in London
The Texans opened at +3 for this neutral-site game in London, but sharp money moved the market to +2.5 early in the week. The question entering this game will be how much of an advantage it is for the Jaguars to play in London for a second consecutive week. The Jags have done this twice before—in 2023 and 2024—and both times they won:
2023: Jaguars beat Bills 25-20
2024: Jaguars beat Patriots 32-16
The Jaguars defense is one of the more metrically confounding units in the NFL. It allows the fifth-most yards per drive in the league yet the second-fewest points per drive. Teams are consistently able to move the ball down the field on Anthony Campanile’s unit. It doesn’t have elite coverage or pressure rates. But once teams get into the red zone, Jacksonville locks all the windows and doors.
The Jags have an elite run defense, so you’d expect them to be better than average at defending the red zone. But not this good. Regression is coming. Through five weeks, Jacksonville has allowed touchdowns on 33 percent of opponent red zone trips. No defense finished the 2025 season lower than 42 percent, so expect that number to pop upward soon.
The Jaguars’ red zone defense record benefits from a small sample size, and I think the same is true of their record in London doubleheaders. Factor in a little regression from those elements, and this matchup looks pretty even. You can already imagine that this game will feature plenty of Ka’imi Fairbairn field goals given how anemic the Texans are in short-yardage situations, but the Texans will be able to move the ball just as well as the Jaguars can in this one.
Bet: Texans +2.5 (–110)
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)
Las Vegas head coach Klint Kubiak challenged Kirk Cousins to throw the ball downfield more after Week 1, even though the Raiders notched a comfortable win. Since then, the Raiders have posted explosive pass rates above 10 percent in three of four weeks. They rank among the best in the league at generating downfield gains through the air, and now they get to face a limited and likely tired secondary at home on Sunday. The Bills are staying out west for their Rams-Raiders doubleheader, but they’re on a short week after playing an overtime game in which their defense was on the field for 78 plays and more than 37 minutes of time of possession.
The Bills avoided multiple injury scares to their back seven, with C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Terrel Bernard, and Christian Benford all missing time in the game against the Rams before ultimately returning. Defensive lineman Ed Oliver didn’t play at all, however, and his status for Week 6 remains in doubt.
Buffalo has had major coverage issues under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. The Bills are allowing way more big plays through the air than they did the previous two seasons under Sean McDermott.
Las Vegas’s defense has come back down to earth in a major way against Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes the past two weeks, but the Raiders will be able to keep pace in this game.
Bet: Raiders team total over 23.5 (–110)
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
It appears as if both Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. are going to start this game, and the market moved noticeably toward Atlanta once Kevin Stefanski suggested that Penix would start on Wednesday. Chicago opened at –3 and is down to –1.5 as of Wednesday evening.
Sunday was a wake-up call for Bears fans who bought into the defensive improvements the team showed in Weeks 2-4. As it turns out, those improvements were just a result of playing against Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, and Geno Smith’s poor passing offense. Once the Bears faced an elite downfield passer like Jordan Love, the holes in the secondary and lack of pass rush got exposed.
Now, the Bears go on the road again, indoors, to face an excellent downfield passer who is highly sensitive to pressure. If you can get pressure on Penix, you can rattle him.
The Bears aren’t generating meaningful pressure, though. They rank around the league average in pressure rate when not blitzing.
Jaylon Johnson was once an elite corner, but injuries have really taken a toll on his ability to be a quality cover guy. The Packers picked on him, and the Falcons will probably try to do the same.
If Williams isn’t 100 percent as a runner, that will limit the explosiveness of the Bears offense. His return is a real wild card, so it’s hard to pick a team here. But I love this offensive matchup for Penix, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson against an overmatched Bears defense.
Bet: Falcons team total over 24.5 (–110)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
The biggest hole in Pittsburgh’s defense right now is in the secondary. Now that they’ve traded Joey Porter Jr. and have Jamel Dean and Jalen Ramsey dealing with injuries, they’re much more exploitable than many expected in the preseason. Patrick Graham’s defense has allowed an unusual number of downfield passes thus far and ranks among the league’s worst in explosive play rate allowed.
With Jalon Daniels, the Buccaneers are not the team to exploit this weakness. Daniels isn’t going to throw the ball down the field. His average depth of target is 4.9 yards, second lowest of any quarterback who has played at least 30 snaps. The Bucs had a ton of explosive runs and even some passes against the Cowboys, but that said a lot more about the shambolic Cowboys defense than anything else.
Facing a much more difficult Pittsburgh front, Tampa Bay won’t be able to have the long, sustained drives that kept Dallas’s offense off the field for nearly the entire first quarter last Thursday.
On the other side of the matchup, we’ve identified the kind of defense that Aaron Rodgers can carve open. He diced up both the Bengals and Colts at home—two defenses that have weak linebackers in coverage and can be exploited over the middle. The Bucs can neutralize that part of Pittsburgh’s offense. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in EPA per pass allowed between the hashes, behind the 49ers and the Giants.
Bet: Under 39.5 points (–110)
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (–7.5)
The 49ers had their worst offensive game of this young season in Seattle and won anyway. Brock Purdy finally took some sacks. Turnovers ended drives early. Of their last 20 games, they had their third-worst by EPA per drive—the bottom three all came against Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks. It would be very easy to then turn around a week later and say that this game against the Commanders should be back to normal for the 49ers. That they should continue their demolition of every non-Seattle defense and roll to 6-0.
But much like I thought last week, the market has peaked out on the 49ers right now. San Francisco proved me wrong because its defense forced four turnovers, but it’s still too flawed of a defense overall to lay more than a touchdown against Jayden Daniels. Nick Bosa “has a chance” to play on Monday, and the 49ers still aren’t getting consistent pressure without him. Washington turtled its offense and blew a two-touchdown lead against the Giants on Sunday (and demonstrated diabolical end-of-game clock management), but it’s been a well above-average offense with Daniels on the field this season.
The Commanders defense continues to put up excellent run defense metrics that will keep the 49ers from running all over them on Sunday. Brock Purdy might be commandeering an elite offense yet again, but Daniels will have a chance to match him and continue to sustain lengthy drives.
The Commanders have an extra day to try to get wide receiver Stefon Diggs back from injury, while the 49ers have already ruled out Deebo Samuel for Week 6. This spread shouldn’t be more than 7, in my opinion.
Bet: Commanders +7.5 (–110)
Other Bets
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (–12.5)
The Lions had a ton of high-leverage fourth-down conversions that made their game against the Cardinals look a lot less competitive than it really was on a down-to-down basis. Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points had the adjusted score much closer to an even contest.
But this is where the Cardinals’ lack of explosiveness becomes a real issue for them. Arizona’s only path to something resembling defense here is playing keepaway with long, sustained offensive drives. And that is much harder to do with the current state of the Cardinals offensive line.
However, there are arguments that the market has gotten out of hand here. Three weeks ago, the 49ers closed as 8.5-point favorites against a relatively similar Cardinals team. Now, the Rams are catching an extra 4 points. It’s too many, but do you have the stomach to bet on the Cardinals?
We’ve seen Jacoby Brissett engineer consistent late-game offense in garbage time, and unlike Dan Campbell’s Lions, Sean McVay is rarely one for style points. The Rams on a short week following overtime are still struggling defensively, and their special teams are once again a disaster.
Bet: Cardinals +12.5 (–112)
Games I’m Considering
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5)
There are a ton of injury questions to figure out with this game between now and kickoff on Sunday. Let’s start with Carolina. It sounds like the Panthers will have both wide receiver Jalen Coker and offensive tackle Taylor Moton back in the lineup given that both were full participants in Wednesday’s practice. Given how dominant Quinyon Mitchell is for Philly against WR1s (Tetairoa McMillan for the Panthers), Coker’s ability to work from the slot is super important in this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have a lengthy list of important players on the injury report. First, DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley both could return this week, but neither practiced on Wednesday. The Eagles’ current starting 11 on offense without those two is among the least talented in the NFL. They’re down to relying on Dameon Pierce, Dontayvion Wicks, rookie Makai Lemon, Eagles camp cult hero Darius Cooper, and Dallas Goedert for offense. It’s very hard to correctly assess the Eagles offense without knowing more about Barkley and Smith, the only true needle-movers for the unit right now.
The most important development for Philadelphia last week is that Jalen Carter looked like the All-Pro defensive tackle that the Eagles paid him to be. He was playing through a hairline fracture in his right wrist, but he looked fully healthy on Sunday and produced a dominant performance against the Jaguars in London.
I’m waiting to see the status of Smith and Barkley, but this could be a good time to buy low on the Eagles and their defense that is relatively healthy. There’s always the lingering albatross of their second-half ineptitude on offense, but the defense matches up well with the Panthers offense.
Bet: Consider Eagles first half or Panthers team total under depending on Philly’s health
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (–1.5)
The Cowboys find themselves in the triumvirate of all gas, no brakes teams in the NFL through five weeks. The Lions, Bills, and Cowboys all sit in the top three of offensive EPA per drive, and amazingly, all sit in the bottom three of defensive EPA per drive. They are remarkably similar teams right now, and when they’ve faced off against other explosive offenses, it’s hard to make the total high enough.
This total opened at 52.5 and has still been bet up. Green Bay has fixed its offensive line woes by shuffling in new guards, ramping up play-action, and throwing deep bombs. The Cowboys do not have the defensive personnel to slow down Green Bay.
These two teams played a thrilling 40-40 overtime tie last year, and not that much has changed since then. The Packers defense is quite injured right now—still no Micah Parsons, and now without Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper.
If you like the over, it’s worth chasing the alternate overs as these two offenses overwhelm the opposing defense with explosive plays. It’s square, but sometimes, games do play out almost exactly as we expect them to.
Bet: Consider over 53.5 and alternate spreads
Notes on the Rest
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (–6.5)
- The Colts are one of the five worst defenses since 2000 at generating havoc—plays with a tackle for loss, forced fumble, pass deflected, or interception—through five weeks. If there was ever a moment for the anemic Titans offense to show life, it would be in this matchup.
- The Colts’ explosive play rate dropped from 12.2 percent (sixth) in the first five weeks of last year to 7.8 percent (30th) in the first five weeks this year.
- Congrats to the Titans, who are now my 32nd-ranked team in predictive power ratings, just barely lower than the Dolphins.
- Indianapolis’s explosive play differential makes them borderline unbettable at –6.5, but there are also better ways to watch football than betting the 2026 Titans.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (–8.5)
- The Chargers defense has really rounded into shape quickly under new coordinator Chris O’Leary, but the offense is so inept that it really doesn’t matter.
- The Chargers have a 47.2 percent pressure rate through Week 5, the second-worst mark in the league.
- L.A. has essentially a non-functioning offense given the injuries to all of the pass catchers and the inability to protect Justin Herbert.
- The total got bet down multiple points and is probably still too high, except for the fact that Herbert’s multiple turnovers per game is giving opponents short fields.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
- Another football season means another year of speculating and guessing about the health status of Lamar Jackson.
- Even if he does play, a more limited Jackson could be much less effective as a player due to his missing running value.
- I think I’ll bet on the Browns at home if Jackson is ruled out and the line balloons up above 7, as I suspect it will.
- Until we have clarity on Jackson, there’s not much to do here.
- As I wrote two weeks ago, the Browns pass defense at home is a full standard deviation better than every other NFL defense since 2021.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+1.5)
- I entered the season lower than the betting market on both of these two teams. Neither team has any consistency in the running game, which means this matchup will come down to whichever up-and-down quarterback is more effective.
- Jameis Winston’s arm has come to life after playing some terrible football for his first few starts. There’s still bad decision-making, but he’s moving and throwing better now than he was in Weeks 2 and 3.
- New Orleans has gotten a lot of fanfare for their poor first quarters, but the Giants have a lower first-quarter success rate and EPA per play.
- This is probably, along with Cowboys-Packers, a good live betting game given how capable both quarterbacks are of blowing leads and engineering comebacks.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (–7.5)
- The Jets have played two games against great offenses this year. The Bears put up 34 first downs and the Lions put up 31 points. Most of the Jets’ good defensive numbers are a result of games against Tennessee and Cleveland.
- New England’s secondary is likely to still be depleted, but can the Jets even exploit this? They’re still listing both Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell on the injury report.
- The Patriots pass rush is one of the more surprising and underrated units in the NFL right now. They rank inside the top 10 in pressure rate thanks to the emergence of Elijah Ponder and Gabe Jacas.
- After disastrous games with deep passes in Weeks 1 and 2, Drake Maye has posted three consecutive excellent games with passes of 20-plus air yards. As he gets more comfortable, the Patriots’ offensive explosiveness is following suit.
