The opening four weeks of the NFL season were full of surprises and disappointments. The Raiders and Browns are each 3-1, and a combined 7-1 against the spread as the two biggest overperformers at this point in the season. The Texans and Buccaneers are 0-4 despite entering the season as favorites to win their respective divisions, and neither has even covered a closing line spread yet.
The Eagles sit at 2-2 and just one game out of first place, but their 0-4 record ATS tells a better story of just how much they’ve underperformed expectations. Week 5 brings about the first byes of the season as two overperformers—Kansas City and Carolina—will take the week off.
That leaves us a 15-game slate and a chance to get back on track. Last week was my first losing week of the season with this column (thanks for nothing, T.J. Hockenson). After a 2-4 showing last week, the column is now 17-13 on the season.
Thursday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
The Cowboys offense ranks fifth in points per drive out of any offense since 2000 in the first four games of a season. Even despite their defensive deficiencies, an inconsistent running game, and the absence of guard Tyler Smith, Dallas is now the NFC East favorite and Dak Prescott (+1500) should be in early-season MVP discussions due to just how elite the passing offense has been.
The market briefly touched as high as Dallas -10 before Tampa Bay money hit the market, because some smart people realized the Cowboys defense isn’t nearly good enough to lay double-digits against another NFL team (except, maybe, the Dolphins).
Jalon Daniels threw two interceptions in his first start for the Bucs last Sunday, but his ability to extend drives with his legs, and the Cowboys’ inability to create pressure or cover anyone gives Daniels about as friendly a matchup as he could hope for. The Buccaneers offensive line also had its best game of the season after struggling against three much better defensive lines in the first three weeks.
Mobile quarterbacks have been a consistent issue for the Cowboys defense. Dallas allowed 69 rushing yards to Jayden Daniels in two quarters before his injury. They conceded 54 to Jaxson Dart and 50 to Lamar Jackson in respective losses.
While I do think the Bucs offense can have success in this matchup, their defense is not well equipped to handle Prescott’s offense. Prescott has crushed the split safety looks that Todd Bowles loves to run. And now the Bucs will be without star safety Antoine Winfield Jr., too. Prescott is consistently elite against blitzing defenses, and the undersized Tampa corners will have trouble handling the Cowboys’ downfield receivers.
All signs point to Dallas having a ton of offensive success yet again, and the best way to bet on them doing so is betting a team total over 28.5 at -110. You’re admittedly buying the Dallas offense at the peak of its market value, but we know that traditionally, Dallas loves to run up the score on overmatched defenses at home.
Bet: Dallas Team Total Over 28.5 (-110)
Favorite Five (11-9)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7.5)
Houston is a shocking 0-4 to begin the season. They’ve allowed game-winning scoring drives in the final two minutes of three of their four losses, including back-to-back weeks against the Colts and Cowboys. Their defensive metrics this season are a classic example of why it is so hard to maintain elite defense year-over-year in the NFL. Will Anderson Jr. has been the league’s best pass rusher and Derek Stingley Jr. remains a lockdown corner. Yet an injury to linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, regression from CB2 Kamari Lassiter, and a difficult schedule have contributed to the Texans sitting 25th in EPA per play allowed through four weeks.
There’s a clear case for why the Texans should still be rated as one of the top defenses in the NFL despite a disappointing start.
- Communication issues over the middle have led to multiple uncharacteristic coverage busts that will likely not continue going forward.
- The defense is eighth in success rate allowed—a suggestion that it’s less reliable explosive plays doing most of the damage.
- They’ve allowed the most yards in the NFL from contested catches. That’s a product of both bad luck and playing against some of the best QBs and receivers in the NFL.
- Will Anderson Jr. has been the best defensive player in the NFL.
The 1992 San Diego Chargers are the only 0-4 team to make the playoffs. But keep in mind, there’s an extra game now, an extra playoff spot, and the Texans are one of the best 0-4 teams of all time. Add in that the Texans have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, and I actually think they’re still alive in the AFC playoff race.
Now, back to this game.
Updated weather forecasts suggest that Tropical Storm Isaias is going to move north more quickly than anticipated. That track suggests the storm will have passed Nashville by the time these two winless teams square off. Even with normal weather conditions, though, points will be at a premium in this game.
The market opened Houston at -6.5 and steamed straight through 7 early in the week.
The Titans offense is just as hopeless in Cam Ward’s second year as it was in his rookie year. Their special teams are among the league’s worst, too. They look like a poorly coached team. But the defense has taken some real steps forward metrically under Robert Saleh. Tennessee grades out as average in run defense and in havoc generated. The secondary still has real problems, as evidenced by Lamar Jackson’s first half last Sunday, but they can neutralize the Houston run game and overwhelm their mediocre offensive line to keep this game somewhat competitive.
Houston still can’t run the ball, and that means they’ll be settling for more field goals than touchdowns.
Bet: Under 37.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
The 49ers offense and quarterback Brock Purdy have gotten a ton of deserved praise for its performance in the first month of the season. Purdy hasn’t been sacked yet. The 49ers opened the season with three consecutive games of absurdly high success rates above 56 percent. Deebo Samuel looks like it’s 2022 again.
San Francisco has been a dominant offense over the last calendar year, with the exception of its matchups against one opposing defensive coach: Seattle’s Mike Macdonald. Will Kyle Shanahan have new ideas to crack the Macdonald defense that dominated him the last two meetings in January? Including the playoffs, the 49ers have played 19 games in the last calendar year. The two games against Seattle are the two negative outliers at the bottom of the chart, sorted by EPA per drive.
I’m always weary of reading too much into a sample of two games. But keep in mind the difference in market price right now. The Seahawks were -7 at home in January when these two teams played in the divisional round. They had extra rest coming off the bye, but otherwise, has there really been that much of an adjustment in either team?
San Francisco is still dealing with a ton of defensive injuries and isn’t generating any consistent pressure without Nick Bosa (the team is 27th in pressure rate the last two games without him). And now the secondary has some injuries of its own, as nickel corner Upton Stout is questionable and safety Marques Sigle is out.
Sam Darnold has had some brutal turnovers since returning from injury, but a home game against a 49ers defense producing no havoc (San Francisco is 31st) is a soft schedule spot for him.
Bet: Seattle -3 (-110)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)
The Cardinals have the lowest explosive play rate in the NFL. No defense allows more big plays than the Lions. Something’s gotta give.
Arizona has built a solid, methodical offense around Jacoby Brissett, but sustaining long drives will be much harder without left tackle Paris Johnson Jr., who is out for the season with a torn biceps. The Giants’ Abdul Carter generated constant pressure last week, and Brissett has wilted under pressure this season. An offense that rarely produces chunk gains has little margin for the sacks and negative plays that derail possessions.
Detroit’s defensive front can exploit that weakness. The Lions are shutting down the run and generating pressure, even as their disastrous secondary undermines both strengths. Arizona’s lack of explosiveness makes this a favorable matchup. Detroit can disrupt Brissett without getting burned downfield like they have repeatedly.
The Lions opened at -4 on Monday morning, and the market has moved steadily toward Detroit. I agree with the move. I’ve been higher than the market on Arizona’s offense to start the season, but the offensive line injuries have changed my tune on that.
Bet: Lions -5.5
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
The Rams needed a miracle fourth-quarter comeback to win against the shorthanded Eagles in the rain on Sunday. But based on the underlying box score from that game, the Rams were completely dominant on a down-to-down basis and only in that predicament because of Matthew Stafford’s turnovers and continued poor play from L.A.’s special teams. The Rams split their last two contests at Denver and Philly, but neither of those games were that close when you dig under the hood.
The Rams more than doubled up the Eagles in yards. They had 482 total yards at Denver without Puka Nacua. If Los Angeles cleans up its turnovers, special teams play, and surprisingly average red-zone offense, it will be a force. They’re the highest-rated team in the NFL based on betting markets.
And after two consecutive games against excellent secondaries, playing against this Buffalo back four with its top two receivers healthy will be a breath of fresh air. The Bills are generating pressure at near-elite levels, but they’re not able to cover anyone. It’s a talent deficiency problem as much as it’s a scheme problem. The Bills don’t match up well with the Rams’ multi-faceted passing attack.
It’s rare that markets price Josh Allen as an underdog. But he’s rightfully one here—especially because the likely return of Aaron Donald will be important for the Rams against one of the league’s most efficient rushing attacks. The Bills defense’s inability to cover while the Rams secondary continues to improve week-to-week is why the Rams will win this game at home.
Bet: Rams -3 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Depending on which number you bet in last week’s Bucs-Packers game, true backup quarterbacks are now 6-0 against the spread in their starts this season. The market overreacted to another quarterback absence, and Tampa Bay remained competitive without Baker Mayfield.
Lamar Jackson is highly unlikely to play this week, which means it’s Snoop Huntley’s turn. Huntley has filled in for Jackson before and can preserve some of the RPO concepts that make Baltimore’s offense so difficult to defend. He’s a substantial downgrade, but the Ravens won’t have to throw out their entire offensive identity.
Huntley played against Tennessee in garbage time, but 11 plays and a 0.4-yard average depth of target tells us little about how this offense will function with him as the starter. The market has already delivered its verdict, moving Baltimore from -3.5 on last week’s lookahead to an underdog on the other side of the key number of 3.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has gone from buried to anointed in two weeks. Two excellent prime-time performances against poor run defenses have turned the Falcons into fashionable NFC contenders and the clear favorite in the NFC South. There’s substance behind the optimism: This offense has been efficient with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback dating back to 2024. But Baltimore’s defense represents a considerable step up from what Atlanta has faced the past two weeks.
The same is true on the other side of the ball. Atlanta’s defense deserves credit for its improvement, but consecutive games against the injured and ineffective Saints and Packers offensive lines haven’t offered much evidence of how it will handle a functioning running game. Even without Jackson, Baltimore’s rushing attack on a fast indoor track should provide a much sturdier test. I’m skeptical that two favorable matchups have told us enough about Atlanta to justify this much of a swing in the price.
For at least one week, I’m backing the Ravens and Huntley.
Bet: Ravens +3.5 (-122)
Other Bets
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3.5)
The Raiders coaching staff continues to impress. If there’s such a thing as a moral victory, it was the Raiders going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in Week 4. Las Vegas is 4-0 against the spread and the market might still be catching up to them. I still have a ton of questions about Vegas’s secondary, but the Patriots’ skill group isn’t going to expose those holes this week. One thing I do believe in is the Raiders defense’s ability to generate pressure. Las Vegas is fourth in pressure rate, and they’re not some heavy blitzing team. Drake Maye’s numbers under pressure have been well below average this year, and while Maye adds a ton of value via his scrambling, that’s a hard way to consistently win week-to-week.
This is still a New England defense with multiple key players injured, and I have a feeling that the Patriots’ offensive outburst last week said more about the state of the Buffalo secondary than either Maye or the Patriots’ passing offense.
Bet: Raiders +3.5 (-106)
Games I'm Considering
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+6.5)
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins against Miami’s secondary was setting up to be one of the biggest mismatches of the entire season. However, both star receivers are on the injury report. And all of a sudden, the Dolphins might be a threat to scare the Bengals at home.
Chase is in concussion protocol following Sunday’s game, and traditionally, that means he’s going to miss at least one game. Meanwhile, Higgins did not practice on Wednesday with a groin injury. The Bengals have tried to become more of an under-center and play-action team this year, but Joe Burrow has not been an efficient passer from under center. And the run game is underwhelming as well.
As a result, we have a shorthanded offense with an uncertain identity and way of playing on the road against a winless team that has been competitive with both Kansas City and Minnesota each of the last two weeks. Cincinnati’s defensive front is the strength of the defense, but the back seven has proven extremely gettable in the last two weeks. Their total inability to cover the middle of the field could be a weakness that Miami exploits.
There’s a reason the Dolphins are catching more than a touchdown at home. But if the Bengals receivers don’t go, I’ll be betting Miami at +7 or better.
Consider Miami +7 or better
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) (in London)
The Eagles were -2.5 on the lookahead line at FanDuel on Saturday morning for this game. Here’s what happened since then:
- The Eagles lost Saquon Barkley, Quinyon Mitchell, and Tank Bigsby to injury against the Rams.
- The remaining players put in the worst offensive performance of the Nick Sirianni era.
- Jacksonville won on the road at Cincinnati.
- It was revealed that DeVonta Smith would likely miss multiple games.
- Lane Johnson retired.
- The Eagles traded starting offensive lineman Cam Jurgens to Baltimore.
As a result of all of these events, the line moved 5 points. That’s a remarkable shift for a non-quarterback injury and shows just how much the perception of the Eagles has changed in the market as a result of these past few days.
My natural inclination would be to bet back against such a dramatic move. But the Eagles’ decision to delay going to London until Friday, and the vibe around the franchise right now, suggest that they could be in a transition year.
The Eagles offensive line went from elite to average to bad in the last three years. They’re trying to implement a new offense, but they still aren’t able to consistently throw over the middle, generate yards after the catch, or run play-action. There’s a reason I’ve bet against the Eagles heavily each of the last three weeks, but I think the market is now properly pricing them here.
Edges don’t last forever in sports betting, and the time to bet against Philly in the season-long and game-to-game markets has come and probably gone now. This is the stingiest run defense they’ve faced all year, and Will Shipley is the starting RB behind two brand new interior offensive linemen.
I’ll have more Jags thoughts in the weeks to come, but I’m continuing to notice that their defense is top three in points per drive allowed since Anthony Campanile became defensive coordinator to start 2025.
Consider Jaguars alternate spreads
Notes on the Rest:
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (+1.5)
- The Saints are among the worst defenses in the NFL, and Troy Aikman’s reveal that Brandon Staley knew their defense was in trouble before Monday night’s thrashing is a concerning indicator of their talent and health situation right now.
- However, there’s few better teams to get your defense right against than Minnesota, especially if they’re without Justin Jefferson.
- The Vikings are in the midst of adjusting their rushing offense on the fly away from zone concepts because they’ve been so bad at it.
- Kyler Murray has only played two games, and most of them without Jefferson. I’m still not giving up hope that this offense will get better, but it’s unlikely to happen without a fully healthy Jefferson.
- Jefferson said he plans to play on Sunday after missing last week with an ankle injury.
- The Saints’ total inability to run the ball on early downs will leave them in way more passing downs than you want to be in against Brian Flores. And the Saints’ offensive line issues will make unblocked pressures frequent.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
- Pittsburgh will be a popular pick because the Colts are coming back from London and going on the road without a bye week.
- The Steelers’ best offensive game came against the Bengals, who cannot cover the middle of the field. The Colts can’t do that either.
- The biggest weakness of the Pittsburgh defense right now is the secondary, due to injuries. But Indianapolis has no explosiveness without Alec Pierce.
- Colts offense pre-Jones leg injury last year: 13.9 percent explosive play rate, second in the NFL.
- Colts offense Weeks 1-4 this year: 7.5 percent explosive play rate, 29th in the NFL
- I wouldn’t be surprised if Pittsburgh is -3 by Sunday.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-1.5)
- The Jets’ injury report didn’t get much better on Wednesday after they were incredibly shorthanded on Sunday.
- I wrote last week about how dominant their defense is at home, and how defense doesn’t typically travel that well. Maybe with a new coaching staff, that will change.
- Selling high on the Browns following two home upset wins is generally a thing I’d look to do, but the Jets are down so many important players on both sides of the ball that I’m actually surprised they are still a favorite.
- Even if Mason Taylor plays, AD Mitchell is important in this matchup because Cleveland plays a lot of man coverage and Mitchell is the Jets’ best offensive separator.
- As much as Braelon Allen is a good change-of-pace back, he’s also a clear down-to-down downgrade from Breece Hall, who also did not practice on Wednesday.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
- The Commanders’ ability to slow down the run game with their defensive front makes this a nightmare matchup for the Giants. New York will need a competent running game to prevent Jameis Winston from throwing them out of games.
- Even in the win last week, the Giants had just a 41 percent offensive success rate. They won on explosives and turnovers, which is a hard way to win week-to-week.
- Like the Colts, the Commanders are in a tough travel spot coming back from London.
- With the uncertainty surrounding the health of Jayden Daniels as a thrower and scrambler, I’ll be sitting this one out.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (+2.5)
- These last two games are intentionally at the end because they are in similar spots.
- My numbers say I’m supposed to buy the bottom on both the Packers and Chargers here, but their offensive line situations render both offenses potentially inoperable.
- Chicago can run its usual ball-control offense and Green Bay’s total inability to run the ball will make it hard for its defense to not wear down throughout the game.
- The Bears haven’t played an offense with any big-play potential since Week 1, and Carolina scored 37 points on them. The defense grades out well metrically, but the secondary’s issues and total lack of pass rush could mean Green Bay should hit big plays vertically as Jordan Love has to take more risks.
- We also saw the Packers win the first half and lose the second half badly in their last two meetings last season.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
- The Chargers’ offensive depth chart is an absolute MASH unit.
- Ladd McConkey didn’t practice on Wednesday, and both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to miss Week 5.
- Denver’s defense could be without both Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss, and the defense will have a big dropoff without both.
- But Denver’s defensive line against the Chargers offense is such an insane mismatch that I don’t really want to get involved in betting actual dollars on the Chargers.
- Chargers defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary has quietly been cooking the last two weeks after a poor start to the season and really squashed both Buffalo and Seattle’s offenses on a down-to-down basis.
