The chaos of the final day of the WNBA regular season, which decided three of the four first-round playoff matchups, feels like a scaled-down harbinger of what’s next. We’re about to see an unusually wide-open first round; the gap between the no. 1 and no. 8 seeds is a historically tight seven games. For reference, that gap was 11 games last season and 17 the season before. Every lower seed boasts a little bit of a “nobody wants to see them in the first round” factor, besides the injury-plagued Dallas Wings, who carry the inferior but still scary “nothing to lose” label.
The WNBA’s 30th regular season has also been its longest, and the home-away-home format of the first round (which isn't organized by conference) will guarantee arduous travel for six of eight playoff teams. To boot, half the league is still getting over the jet lag and interruption caused by the FIBA tournament earlier this month in Berlin, held smack-dab in the final third of the WNBA season. There has never been a better time for an underdog to steal a game—or even a series.
I hesitate to romanticize the WNBA’s shoestring-budget past, but there’s something quaint about a season marked by exponential increases in player salaries hearkening back to the league’s adaptive, provisional roots. In time, the first round will be longer, and once expansion is complete, conferences will likely be reinstated as a structuring part of postseason play. But for now, in the messy middle of the WNBA’s ascendance, we are being given the gift of a rare first round where just about anything could happen—which has both its charms and frustrations.
With that in mind, let’s rank the first-round series based on the likelihood of an upset, starting with the longest shot, and examine the postseason race as a whole.
Paige Bueckers controls the ball against Gabby Williams
4. (No. 7) Dallas Wings vs. (No. 2) Golden State Valkyries
Dallas is the great afterthought of the postseason, and rightfully so. It has been absolutely decimated by injuries. Azzi Fudd, the 2026 no. 1 pick and the Wings’ best point-of-attack defender, is out for the rest of the season. The status of Alanna Smith, whose rim protection has carried a team to the WNBA Finals before, remains up in the air.
But they do have two wild cards:
- The Wings’ new starting lineup, featuring Maddy Siegrist and Awak Kuier alongside Paige Bueckers, Jessica Shepard, and Arike Ogunbowale, has stumbled into an intriguing combination of shotmaking, rim pressure, athleticism, and spacing.
- Bueckers is a top-five midrange shooter who thrives in the half court; she should be able to find her spots against the Valkyries, who focus on protecting the rim and the 3-point line.
I don’t see Dallas winning this series, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it kept up against the Valkyries’ style longer than expected.
One more stat: Dallas’s new starting lineup has the best offensive rating in the WNBA.
Breanna Stewart, Olivia Miles, and Han Xu go up for a rebound
3. (No. 8) New York Liberty vs. (No. 1) Minnesota Lynx
When Sabrina Ionescu told reporters recently that New York isn’t your traditional eighth seed, she wasn’t just offering feigned optimism. The Liberty defeated the Lynx in five (controversial) games in the 2024 WNBA Finals, and the 26-18 record they clawed their way to this season—despite injuries to Ionescu, Satou Sabally (who is out for the year), Leonie Fiebich, and more—would have been good enough for the no. 5 seed last year.
The Lynx would have been a shoo-in to beat nearly any of the other lower seeds, but they've historically (and recently) struggled against New York's size.
As we found out in their last matchup, Fiebich and Breanna Stewart are one of the only duos with the size, speed, and versatility to switch an Olivia Miles–Napheesa Collier pick-and-roll.
With Collier back in the starting lineup, the Lynx are better as a whole than they were before her return—averaging a plus-18.5 net rating—but Collier adds some subtle wrinkles that could prove advantageous for New York. With Natasha Howard setting the bulk of Miles’s screens, the pick-and-roll had turned into a perpetual layup line for Minnesota. With Collier back, the Lynx have become more jumper-happy, partially because the two-time MVP runner-up gets double-teamed constantly. On its own, adding a little bit of variance to fuel a scintillating offense isn’t a bad thing. But the Lynx are also giving up five more points in the paint than they were before Collier’s return from her ankle surgeries. The five-time All-Star simply isn’t at 100 percent yet—by her own admission—and her gradual return to form has naturally taken a toll on Minnesota’s physicality in the paint, an area where it has to put forth a full-throttle effort to make up for its lack of defensive size.
One more stat: The Lynx are in the bottom three in the WNBA in points in the paint since Collier’s return.
Kiki Iriafen drives to the basket against Angel Reese
2. (No. 5) Washington Mystics vs. (No. 4) Atlanta Dream
Hey, Washington: Get Angel Reese in foul trouble. She is frankly Atlanta’s only line of defense against the Mystics’ three-headed frontcourt monster of Kiki Iriafen, Shakira Austin, and Lauren Betts. The Dream are 7.9 points per 100 possessions worse defensively when Reese sits, and there’s a steep drop-off when her backups, even DeWanna Bonner, enter the game.
The Mystics and the Dream have similar styles. At a time when the rest of the WNBA is trending toward guard play and offense, both are in the top three in defensive rating, points in the paint, second-chance points, and free throw attempts. But in a war of attrition, the team with the most bodies—and, therefore, the most contingency plans—wins, and that’s the Mystics. For the Mystics, the youngest team in the WNBA, this is an opportunity to call shots, take names, form an identity, and prove that they are formidable as well as fun.
One more stat: The Mystics may be ranked 12th on offense, but they have the no. 1 free throw rate in the WNBA.
Caitlin Clark is guarded by A’ja Wilson and Jewell Loyd
1. (No. 6) Indiana Fever vs. (No. 3) Las Vegas Aces
The Aces and the Fever have similar makeups: a Big Three, questionable depth made worse by crushing injuries, and maddening defensive inconsistency. The Aces have lost NaLyssa Smith, A’ja Wilson’s frontcourt mate and a legit Most Improved Player candidate, for the season due to a knee injury. The Fever, meanwhile, await potentially devastating news on the status of Ty Harris, who had to be carried off the court in the final game of the regular season because of an ankle injury. Aliyah Boston also left that game early with a leg injury that has hampered her nearly all season long.
With Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana has the best-scoring backcourt of all time. The Aces, on the other hand, have such putrid perimeter defense that Becky Hammon is starting essentially a one-way player in Stephanie Talbot, who has logged eight zero-point games this season. With Smith out, Hammon will likely have to go small around Wilson, exacerbating the Aces’ defensive issues. Per Synergy, nobody has given up more points as a primary defender this season than the Aces’ Jackie Young. Jewell Loyd, at 11th worst, is not far behind. The Fever have their own perimeter deficiencies on the defensive end, and I wouldn’t blame you for picking the team featuring the GOAT and the title pedigree to win here. But if the series turns into a defense-optional, offense-optimal free-for-all, I’m siding with Indiana, which has broken the 100-point mark this season more than any other team in WNBA history.
One more stat: The Aces’ Big Three of Wilson, Young, and Chelsea Gray have logged 243 games together (postseason included).
Who won the last day of the regular season?
Anyone who’s not keen on a congressional investigation into the WNBA. The prospect of a Fever-Dream matchup in the first round, with its on- and off-court combustibility, had me feeling pre-exhausted. On paper, a Fever-Dream rematch featuring Clark versus Reese—with the added juice of Bonner returning to Indiana after leaving the team just five games into last season—should be the stuff of a sportswriter’s dreams. In reality, the first inkling of conflict (inevitable, by the way) would have hung a discourse anchor around the first round. Anyway, now that we have avoided that crisis in the making, I’m sure things will be extremely normal for the WNBA from here on out.
Who has the easiest path to the WNBA Finals?
Easy. The Golden State Valkyries. If they make it past the depleted Wings, they will face either the depleted Fever—a team with poor perimeter defense and athleticism whom they are lab-designed to beat—or the depleted Aces. In only their second year of existence, the Valkyries are sitting pretty.
Who has the hardest path to the WNBA Finals?
Easy. The Minnesota Lynx. If they beat New York, they will have to face either the Mystics or the Dream—and Atlanta poses an even bigger (pun intended) challenge to the Lynx’s size and physicality.
But …
I still have them winning the title.
Minnesota’s torrid offense, helmed by Miles, is historic in its own right, and its defense is getting back on track as Collier continues to progress. Minnesota’s frontcourt superstar will be playing herself back into elite shape while the rest of the league is running on fumes and adrenaline. Miles will face some headwinds as a rookie point guard in the postseason, but the tactical chess match of game-to-game adjustments will suit her cerebral, analytical approach.
One more stat: The Lynx have a collective record of 97-31 in the past three years. They’re due.
