The hardest part about betting Week 1 is admitting how little we truly know going into an NFL season. The hardest part about betting Week 2 is resisting the urge to believe we now know everything.
The betting market doesn’t have the luxury of waiting for a larger sample size. It has already adjusted, sometimes dramatically, based on the one game each team has played. Our job in Week 2 is to determine which movements are justified and which are overreactions.
I’m willing to forgive some ugly debuts, fade a few impressive box scores, and return to one of the teams that cashed for us last Sunday. After a 6-2 record in Week 1, let’s see if we can keep the vibes high.
The Ringer 107 Leaderboard
Thursday Night Football
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (–4.5)
Detroit finished Week 1 right around league average in efficiency by expected points added per drive. But the offense missed out on some really big explosive plays that would have made its stats look a lot better. If Jameson Williams caught another open pass or two, or if the Lions didn’t have a holding penalty on the goal line, we’d be having a very different conversation about them. The underlying success rate numbers suggest there’s nothing to be worried about, and the hiccups and miscues were probably the result of Week 1 rust.
The Lions’ offensive line will be shorthanded this week, as right tackle Blake Miller and left guard Christian Mahogany were ruled out on Wednesday. But are the Bills the team to properly exploit this? Buffalo offered very little resistance to Houston’s David Montgomery last week, and the pass rush graded out below average too. The Bills’ problems in coverage looked like a personnel issue, and Jim Leonhard is learning in real time that he no longer has elite corners like he did in Denver with Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss.
Joe Brady hinted that the Bills would throw the ball a lot more in 2026, and he wasn’t lying. After back-to-back seasons in the top five in rush rate, Buffalo ranked 22nd in Week 1. Josh Allen has his top two skill players—Dalton Kincaid and DJ Moore—healthy, and now he gets a home game against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.
Once you add in that Detroit’s defense was on the field for 86 plays on Sunday, this is one of the most favorable matchups possible for Allen and this offense.
History tells us that betting the over on a total this high on a short week isn’t smart. But this feels remarkably similar to the Ravens-Lions Monday Night Football game early last year. When you can’t find a single defensive advantage anywhere and have two offenses this explosive, get ready for fireworks and bet on points. Especially if the footing on the Bills’ new field is untested. This market opened at 52.5 and jumped almost immediately to 54.5.
Bet: Over 54.5 points (–110)
NFL Week 1 Review
The Favorite Five (3-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (–4.5)
New England had one of its worst offensive games of the regular season last year against Patrick Graham’s Las Vegas defense in Week 1. Yes, it was a famously wonky Week 1, but Graham, now with Pittsburgh, also schemes a defense that is designed to prevent downfield passing and force teams to methodically move the ball up the field. If you take A.J. Brown and a fully healthy TreVeyon Henderson out of this New England offense, who is left to generate explosive plays?
After Drake Maye’s disastrous fourth quarter in Seattle last week, in which he frequently tried to force the ball down the field, there’s a decent chance he’ll be more hesitant about tight windows in this matchup. Graham very rarely brought extra pressure last week against Cooper Rush, and I don’t expect that to change against Maye.
Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t in a better position. The Steelers effectively scored 16 offensive points in 12 drives last week. There were some miscues and close calls that prevented them from scoring more, but their inability to consistently run the ball will limit the offense.
Both teams will likely be forced into methodical approaches with limited opportunities for explosive plays (plus, both struggle to run the ball in the red zone). This should be a lower-scoring game than the market indicates. I’m betting under 42.5. And I would bet it at 41 or better.
Bet: Under 42.5 points (–110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (–2.5)
I wrote in the preseason that Liam Coen is Ben Johnson in a smaller market with less PR. While Week 1 was at home against the hapless Browns, the Jaguars put together another dominant offensive performance through the air. Jacksonville is on the list of teams that overwhelmed the Broncos defense last year, and they’re well suited to do it again. They’re not reliant on one offensive wideout, they consistently scheme players open in the middle of the field, and Coen’s track record is becoming hard to ignore. Tampa Bay finished 2024 third best in offensive success rate with Coen as its OC. The Jaguars then finished top five in passing success rate in the second half of last season.
Even if you want to chalk up Denver’s tackling issues to Week 1 rust, the Broncos will have real issues covering the middle of the field this season given their underwhelming linebacker talent. Coen is excellent at repeatedly hammering a mismatch, which he did on Sunday against Myles Harden.
I came into the preseason with my doubts about the Jaguars defense, and one game against Deshaun Watson didn’t tell us much. I expect a bounce-back for the Broncos at home against a defensive front that is considerably less aggressive than Kansas City’s. The first bet I made in Week 2 was over 43.5 here, as discussed on Ringer Wise Guys on Monday, and the line has already ticked upward. But I’d bet the over at anything under 46.
Bet: Over 45.5 points (–105)
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (–6.5)
New Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle completely wrecked the youth in the middle of the Colts defense in Week 1. It was a nightmare for nickel corner Justin Walley to defend Zay Flowers, and rookie safety A.J. Haulcy got caught in multiple coverage mishaps. None of this looks good for defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, but I don’t think the Indy defense is nearly as bad as it looked on Sunday. It just needs to clean up the coverage busts and communication issues.
Now, the Colts are facing a much more limited and predictable offense. The Colts should still have a solid run defense, and the Chiefs don’t have the offensive skill players to put the young Indy defense in conflict over the middle and intermediate areas of the field.
Patrick Mahomes didn’t throw the ball down the field at all in Week 1, failing to complete a pass of at least 10 air yards, and it seems unlikely that the Chiefs will be able to rely on their opponent’s defense missing 28 tackles like Denver did. When the Colts and Chiefs met last year in Kansas City, the Chiefs were efficient and methodical but not explosive. I expect a repeat of that this week.
Meanwhile, the Colts offense had real issues absorbing the extra pressure that Jesse Minter and the Ravens brought last week. Whether it’s because Alec Pierce still isn’t quite right or Daniel Jones isn’t quite right, the Colts’ explosiveness was seriously lacking. Like Mahomes, Jones rarely pushed the ball down the field. And unlike Mahomes, Jones wasn’t too willing to use his legs.
I’m going off of only one game, which was against Bo Nix, but the Chiefs defense is much further ahead of where I thought it would be at this point, especially in the secondary. I’m expecting the Chiefs to have an eight-minute drive at some point in the second half that helps keep this game under the total.
Bet: Under 46.5 points (–110)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (–3.5)
There are probably very few people who want to bet the Cowboys after their embarrassing defensive showing on Sunday night against the Giants. Of the 32 teams that played in Week 1, the Cowboys defense was dead last in EPA per drive—and that sample includes a game that ended 59-37! The Giants played smashmouth football, loaded up on heavy personnel, ran over Dallas at the line of scrimmage, and were hyperefficient on third down.
Washington presents a different matchup altogether. It doesn’t have the kind of power run game to bully Dallas up front. And while the Commanders’ front seven showed real promise on Sunday, I suspect that had a lot to do with the issues along the Eagles’ offensive line. The Commanders had multiple coverage busts on the back end, and a more functional offense could have exploited them for more.
Commanders defensive coordinator Daronte Jones comes from the Brian Flores tree, but blitzing Dak Prescott is not typically a smart way to slow down the Dallas offense. Prescott regularly ranks among the league leaders in EPA per dropback when blitzed, and the Cowboys have considerable skill advantages against the Commanders’ secondary.
We’ve seen the Cowboys be a true Jekyll-and-Hyde team with their home-and-away splits for multiple seasons now, and this is just a much friendlier matchup for them offensively.
Bet: Dallas –3.5 (–115)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
Arizona was my favorite side in Week 1, and they are again one of my favorite sides in Week 2. They continue to be the most underrated team in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the lowest interception rate in NFL history, and that’s a wonderful trait to have for a quarterback against an opportunistic secondary. The betting markets forget how consistently snakebitten and competitive the Cardinals were last year prior to the entire defense getting hurt, and Mike LaFleur has brought a solid offensive floor.
The Seahawks defense looked as elite as ever in the opener, but they probably lose that game if Drake Maye doesn’t throw three fourth-quarter interceptions. The offense was stuck in second gear for most of the night.
There were some procedural issues on offense from Seattle’s opener that I expect them to clean up in Week 2. However, a few truths remain: One, we have enough of a sample of Drew Lock to know that he’s a clear downgrade from Sam Darnold; and two, the Seahawks offense is still going to play extremely slow under new coordinator Brian Fleury. It took them forever to get to the line of scrimmage, and they had issues consistently running the ball. This running game misses its home-run hitter with the absence of Kenneth Walker III.
The Cardinals project as the better offense right now, and they’re catching more than a field goal at home. Even if you think Arizona’s defense is absolutely awful and Seattle has the best defense and coach in the league, that’s a tough needle to thread.
Bet: Cardinals +4.5 (–120)
More in the NFL
Other Bets
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (–8.5)
Both of these offenses had stellar showings in Week 1, but there were specific matchups that each exploited that I don’t think are repeatable in Week 2. The Saints ripped apart a bad Lions secondary in a negative game script with a ton of vertical passing. The Ravens picked on the soft middle of the Colts defense. Now that Zay Flowers and Ja’Kobi Lane are potentially out for this game, the under is the only way I could look.
As impressive as Tyler Shough looked in the second half against Detroit, I’m comfortable saying this Baltimore unit is the best defense he has ever faced. And if we know anything about Jesse Minter defenses, the Ravens are going to force the Saints to be methodical. I think the Saints can find success running the ball in this matchup, which I also don’t mind for the under. It will lead to less explosive drives. If you want to be more cautious, you could wait to see Flowers’s status before betting this one.
Bet: Under 46.5 points (–105)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (+7)
The Eagles won two games last year by more than seven points. One was against the Josh Johnson–led Commanders, and the other against the No. 1 pick–earning Raiders at home. The offensive coordinator is different in Philly, but the Eagles’ offensive issues looked similar in Week 1.
The offensive line showed real cracks last week, and now they’re replacing the injured and ineffective Landon Dickerson at left guard. The Eagles ran an inefficient early-down offense that was reliant on the occasional explosive play and excellent red zone efficiency to sneak past Washington. If that formula sounds familiar, it should, because it’s exactly what the Eagles did last year.
They had only 10 first downs. The problems with the three-and-outs continued. Jalen Hurts showcased his scrambling ability and downfield passing, but he is not really a part of the designed run game anymore. All of this leads to an offense that will struggle to separate, even against inferior teams.
The Titans defensive line struggled majorly on Sunday against an underrated Jets offensive line. Now they get to face a Philly unit that is good but no longer great. Especially on the interior. Robert Saleh just slowed down this offense with San Francisco’s skeleton unit in the playoffs.
The Titans offense was a disaster last week and has no obvious path to score against an excellent Eagles defensive line, but the potential injury to nickel corner Cooper DeJean—he struggled in the opener and missed Wednesday’s practice—leaves more holes than usual in the back end of the defense. This is too many points. This line jumped from Eagles –4.5 on the lookahead to Eagles –7 now.
Bet: Titans +7 (–110)
Games I’m Considering
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (–7.5)
The Giants are going to be the most popular underdog pick of Week 2 following their Week 1 domination of the Cowboys. Especially since the Rams are coming back from Australia, don’t have Myles Garrett, and stunk in their opener. And I don’t think the masses of people on the Giants are necessarily wrong here, because I’m not sure that the Rams’ run defense is actually good.
The Giants look like they have a legitimately great rushing offense. They can use Jaxson Dart in the run game, they have multiple quality lead blockers, and rookie guard Francis Mauigoa was dominant in the opener. Perhaps the Giants’ offensive success said more about the Cowboys defense, but Greg Roman can scheme a run game, and that’s a great way for an undermanned underdog to keep a game close.
The Giants defense wasn’t good in the opener—Dallas was second in offensive EPA per drive. But they were hidden because they were rarely on the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog of seven-plus points to keep a game close against a much more explosive team.
Bet: Consider Giants at +7.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (–4.5)
There’s no way that Brian Flores can blitz on almost 80 percent of the plays every week and still have a functioning defense, right? Right? A healthier and more dominant offensive line will probably expose them, right? The game last week between Green Bay and Minnesota was so wonky that it’s hard to parse what matters and what was a one-game fluke.
Here’s what I think I think about this Sunday:
- The Vikings’ corners have major problems in coverage.
- Minnesota allowed 230 yards and over 8 yards per play in the first half, and that’s more important than whatever chaos happened in the fourth quarter.
- The Bears’ run offense is schemed better than anything in the entire league.
- If Bryce Young can carve open this Chicago secondary, I see no reason why Carson Wentz can’t do the same with an even better skill group.
- Every NFC North game is probably just a shootout where you blindly bet the over and are successful by year’s end.
Bet: Consider the over at 49 or better
Notes on the Rest
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
- The Falcons opened as the favorite on Sunday night, but the market has flipped toward Carolina as the Falcons’ quarterback situation remains uncertain.
- It seems almost impossible that Michael Penix Jr. plays in this game.
- The Falcons should have many more paths to a functioning offense than last week as they try to establish Bijan Robinson against a bad Carolina run defense.
- The Panthers were stellar in this spot last season—9-0 against the spread coming off a loss—but I have a feeling that was just random chance.
- The Panthers are playing a lot faster thus far in 2026, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this game was again higher scoring than you’d expect a Cooper Rush vs. Bryce Young game to be.
- Short divisional home underdogs are traditionally an excellent teaser leg, if you’re into that kind of thing.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (–6.5)
- There are few more concerning indicators for an offensive skill position group than “we brought in Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a workout” in Week 2. That’s the Chargers’ wide receiver room after the Ladd McConkey injury.
- The Chargers offense produced very little in Week 1 once McConkey went out.
- The market has aggressively moved toward the Raiders here.
- The idea that the Chargers’ interior OL “couldn’t get worse” this season was probably true, but it also didn’t get any better in Week 1.
- Brock Bowers’s health and status really matter against a defense that looked very soft defending Trey McBride over the middle last week.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–8.5)
- I have nothing to say about Deshaun Watson that hasn’t already been said by everyone else at this point.
- As my colleague Raheem Palmer pointed out, the Buccaneers have not covered a football game since Spencer Rattler’s final start last October. That’s 10 straight games of underperforming market expectations.
- The market wants no part of Cleveland, and neither do I.
- The Buccaneers will be America’s teaser leg in Week 2.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (–13.5)
- This is entirely too many points according to my numbers, but these kinds of dramatic unit mismatches (San Francisco offense vs. Miami defense) are tough to accurately project.
- The Dolphins actually moved the ball at a respectable clip last week and should have scored more points than they did.
- This all depends on what you think of the San Francisco defense coming back from Melbourne. If you’re not convinced by them, it’s hard to lay 13.5 in any NFL game.
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (+3.5)
- The Jets opened at +5.5 or +4.5 at most books, but the early-week sharp money came in on New York.
- The Jets offensive line deserves a significant boost for their Week 1 performance.
- Given the lack of a Green Bay pass rush, Geno Smith should be kept clean and thus pretty effective.
- Matt LaFleur’s second-half turtles and collapses are becoming all too common because the Packers can’t run the ball with a lead.
- I’m more willing to buy the Jets’ improvements on offense as sustainable than I was at this time last year, but the defense could well get cooked by the Packers’ offensive explosiveness.
- Green Bay to win the first half and lose the game is +950 at FanDuel if you want to lean into the narrative and get crazy.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (–2.5)
- The market initially shifted this line from Houston –2.5 to Houston –3, a move that I agreed with.
- The line slid back to Houston –2.5 following news that Nico Collins was limited at practice and getting scanned for a potential hamstring injury. This has been an issue for Collins in the past, and he’s a major difference-maker for this offense given the lack of receiver depth.
- The Texans offense showed real life in two key situations in Week 1: early-down runs and short-yardage runs. The addition of David Montgomery, plus some natural positive regression, should make the Texans offense closer to league average in 2026 after a poor performance in 2025.
- Without Collins, I wouldn’t want to lay points with Houston.
