Offseason uncertainty makes Week 1 the most exciting—and the most dangerous—betting slate of the NFL season. In some circumstances the market leans heavily on last year’s results, and in others bettors are too eager to price in new coordinators, breakout rookie campaigns, and offseason additions. Considering those adjustments is often more of an art than a science.
Just think back to last summer. The Colts were mocked for acquiring Daniel Jones, and then they crushed expectations for more than half the season. Meanwhile, the market failed to realize just how far the Lions could fall after losing both coordinators, and they ended up missing the playoffs.
Some teams will immediately look different after all their offseason changes, while others will peak later in the season. The trick is finding out which is which.
My approach this week is to favor and boost the teams that already know what they are—and bet against the market when it claims to know what teams might become. That means emphasizing continuity. This strategy might make me look foolish once or twice, but anyone who’s confidently projecting the success or failure of all these first-time offensive coordinators is also doing a lot of educated guesswork.
Welcome back to NFL betting. We’re now ready for 272 games of pure bliss (and the NFC South).
Wednesday Night Football
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (–3.5)
The last game we got in the 2025 season was Seattle’s smothering of New England in the Super Bowl. The Patriots’ protection failed miserably, Drake Maye wobbled under pressure, and the Seahawks blanketed the New England offense en route to a comfortable 29-13 win. It’s easy to look at the line heading into that Super Bowl—Seattle –3.5 on a neutral field—and conclude that it should be a bigger favorite this time around, since it’s at home on Wednesday.
But New England is entering this game with a lot of schematic continuity on offense. It’s one of a handful of teams that’s returning both play callers, and it’s rebuilt the offensive line and added two receivers who’ll command attention from Seattle’s defense. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels admitted that he got outcoached by Mike Macdonald in the Super Bowl, and he’s had the entire offseason to come up with a countermove. The Seahawks threw a ton of Cover 6 looks at Maye, and he failed to push the ball downfield with any real consistency.
There’s been steady market support for the Patriots for most of the summer. They won’t have to fear Seattle’s explosiveness in the run game anymore since Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, and Seattle’s receiving room looks short on playmaking depth. The Seahawks really shouldn’t be laying more than a field goal in the opener.
Bet: Patriots +3.5 (–110)
Thursday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (–3.5)
The most discussed narrative surrounding this Melbourne game is travel logistics. The 49ers left almost a week before kickoff and are adjusting to Melbourne time. The Rams, on the other hand, had plans to land Thursday morning local time, practice roughly 18 hours before kickoff, and play Friday morning. The Rams are essentially trying to outrun jet lag by never allowing their bodies to realize they’ve left California. Personally, that plan sounds like hell to me—but maybe Sean McVay has solved international travel. The Rams used a similar strategy before beating Jacksonville 35-7 in London last season, and they’re 3-0 in international games under McVay.
Regardless, when you factor in how little success McVay teams have had early in the year in recent seasons, I want no part in laying the points with the Rams in this game. The Rams started 1-2 in both 2023 and 2024 and then started 2-1 last year but scored just 14 points in their opening win against Houston. McVay is adamant about not playing his guys during the preseason, and even though this is very much a run it back offense, early-season rust is always a factor.
Anyone expressing real confidence in how the travel will affect either team is mostly guessing, and probably overindexing on their assumptions. We’ll have a full betting discussion about this game on Ringer Wise Guys’ Wednesday show. If I bet a side, I’ll take San Francisco +3.5. But this is also the rare game in which I’d rather embrace the uncertainty than pretend I can quantify it. The unusual travel conditions make alternate spreads appealing.
Bet: 49ers +3.5, but worth leaning into the high-variance international game
The Favorite Five
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5)
The market is asking us to treat Baltimore like the same automatic regular-season juggernaut it has been for most of the Lamar Jackson era. But I’m not convinced that this version of the Ravens deserves that type of faith—at least not yet. After scoring 40 points in Week 1 last season, Baltimore ranked only 13th in EPA per drive the rest of the way. Jackson missed four games with injury, posted the highest pressure-to-sack rate of his career, and looked noticeably less explosive as a runner.
Now the Ravens are installing a new offense under first-time play caller Declan Doyle and also replacing Tyler Linderbaum at center. And the Ravens’ inexperienced interior is squaring off against DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart in its first game. If Indianapolis can disrupt the mesh point and create pressure up the middle, it can make life considerably harder for both Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Baltimore is certainly the more talented team in this matchup, but it is changing play callers, rebuilding its offensive line, and laying more than a field goal on the road against the Colts, whose 2025 season collapsed primarily because its quarterback got hurt. Maybe Daniel Jones is still not fully recovered and this bet will be a disaster from the jump. But given that the Colts have a major continuity advantage, I’ll be taking them with the hook.
Bet: Colts +3.5 (–110)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (–10.5)
The Cardinals have quietly become my favorite candidate to produce a few “Wait, is this offense decent?” performances early in the season. The market is treating Arizona like a completely nonfunctional team, but its offensive personnel aren’t nearly as hopeless as some believe. There is enough speed and young talent here to generate explosive plays, and Arizona doesn’t need to be especially efficient to clear a low expected team point total.
This matchup isn’t prohibitive, either. The Chargers defense was exceptionally well coached under Jesse Minter, but it has a new coordinator in Chris O’Leary. Even if you’re bullish on O’Leary, it’s unlikely to be a seamless transition. Arizona should still have opportunities to move the ball underneath, particularly if Los Angeles builds the kind of early lead implied by this spread and shifts into a more conservative defensive posture.
That is why I prefer the team total to Arizona +10.5. The Cardinals could show legitimate offensive progress and still lose this game 31-20. I don’t necessarily want to bet on their defense to keep the score respectable. Instead, I want to isolate the part of the team that I think the market is underrating.
Bet: Cardinals team total over 17.5 (–110)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+2.5)
The gulf between these two teams’ offensive floors is big enough that I think the line should fully sit on or even above Cowboys –3 in the Sunday Night Football opener. The Cowboys’ wide receiver group versus the depleted and not-that-talented Giants secondary is one of the biggest positional mismatches in all of Week 1. Dak Prescott ranks fourth among qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play since 2021, yet Dallas is being priced as though its offense is merely above average.
I’m excited to see what new wrinkles the Giants can produce in their run game this year, especially in the opener against Dallas’s defense, the biggest wild card in this matchup. The Cowboys responded to their league-worst defensive performance in 2025 by changing almost everything. First-time coordinator Christian Parker is installing a new system. The roster has been shuffled. Whether these are good changes, though, remains a mystery.
Bet: Cowboys –2.5 (–110)
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (–1.5)
There is a danger in overindexing on what we saw in the preseason, when the Jets offense showed real signs of competence and Tennessee struggled mightily. However, I don’t understand why Tennessee is favored here, beyond the fact that it’s the home team and there’s hopium that Brian Daboll can immediately fix Cam Ward. The Titans finished 31st in EPA per pass last season, and Ward took 55 sacks—13 of them came on unblocked pressures, the most in the league. Ward also lost seven fumbles last year, produced very little with his legs, and didn’t consistently punish defenses when protection broke down.
Daboll should help Ward eventually, but "eventually" could take a while since Tennessee is also installing a new offense and will be deploying a rebuilt offensive line in Week 1. The Tennessee offense might be better by year’s end, and it certainly has upside, but the Jets brought in a lot of competent veterans this offseason to help improve their defensive floor.
Tennessee’s outside corners are Cor’Dale Flott and Alontae Taylor, which gives Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson the clearest passing-game mismatch on the field.
This total is 39.5, so possessions will be valuable and the game may be ugly. Give me the better quarterback, the more reliable offensive line, and the better secondary. I’ll take the Jets +1.5—and I’d play the moneyline at plus money, too.
Bet: Jets +1.5 (–110)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (–2.5)
The Chiefs’ aura was punctured in 2025, and there were many factors that contributed to the drop-off. First was their historic close-game luck in 2024, which was completely flipped on its head in 2025. If you just averaged out their good and bad luck, then the Chiefs would have been a 10-win team in 2025. They are probably rightly favored by 2.5 points at home in this game. But I don’t think you can just chalk up their recent performance to “regression” and throw your hands into the air.
Teams weren’t afraid to blitz Mahomes last year. They weren’t afraid to play man coverage, and Mahomes was unable to connect on deep balls to expose defensive gaps. Even the Chiefs defense wasn’t very good when it blitzed opposing quarterbacks. These things all show up in close games.
Why should we expect things to look different for Kansas City in Week 1? Denver will bring man blitzes. It’ll force the Chiefs into third-and-long because it has an excellent run defense. And because I have my doubts about the Broncos, too, I think this has the potential to be a low-scoring battle on Monday night.
The problem with backing Denver is that its offense may not be equipped to capitalize on the opportunities its defense provides. Without a trustworthy run game, the Broncos could spend the night settling for field goals even when they win the field position battle. Denver kicked five field goals against Kansas City at home last year, and I suspect this matchup could look similar.
Bet: Under 44.5 points (–110)
Games I’m Considering
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (–4.5)
This total has been bet down from 47 to 44.5, and the move is understandable. Both offenses looked disjointed throughout the preseason. Sean Mannion is Philadelphia’s new offensive coordinator, and he’s never called plays before. The Eagles are trying to replace A.J. Brown in the aggregate, but first-round rookie Makai Lemon barely played during the preseason. The offense could have some real bouts of inconsistency early on as it tries to rediscover the efficiency that disappeared for long stretches last year.
Washington is installing another offense around Jayden Daniels and will be scrambling to replace the injured Laremy Tunsil. The Eagles defensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage, and any Commanders scoring drives will likely have to be long and methodical as a result.
There are convincing reasons why this total moved. But that doesn’t automatically mean there is value left at the current number. I would need the total to jump back to 45.5 to bet the under here.
Bet: Under at 45.5 or better
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (–1.5)
The common narrative touted in the buildup to this game is that the Texans own Josh Allen. But while it’s true that Allen struggled majorly in Buffalo’s past two games against Houston, that was just two games. One came on a Thursday night on the road last year, and the other was a game in which Allen’s offense was shorthanded.
A lot of quarterbacks, including the great ones, have struggled against the Texans and probably will continue to do so. But consider how aggressively you have to love Houston this year to justify betting the Texans here. They’re favored in this game!
When these two teams met last November, the Bills were 5.5-point road favorites. I want to back Houston because of its continuity edge (and I’m not convinced that DJ Moore will fix all the Bills’ issues against man coverage). But at this price, I can’t. If the Texans drifted back to plus money to win this game, they’d have an investor in me.
Bet: Texans moneyline at anything +100 or better
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+3)
As bearish as I am about the Panthers offense entering 2026, this Bears defense has the potential to make any NFL offense look capable. It has zero pass rush on paper, Coby Bryant is out with an injury, and Kyler Gordon is trying to get himself out of Chicago. Even an offense as limited and injured as the Panthers’ should be able to consistently move the ball down the field.
Ben Johnson claims to be well read in analytics. He acknowledges that his team is being characterized as a regression candidate. Yet he references points per game as his goal metric. Is this what he actually cares about? Or is that what he wants to be judged against because he knows the defense will really stink?
Bet: Consider over at 50 or lower
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (–3.5)
I don’t have much to add about Tua Tagovailoa that hasn’t already been said around the internet.
I do think that the Falcons’ offensive struggles in camp have overshadowed what is an equally big issue for them—their lack of any pass rush. The Falcons defense took a big step forward last year thanks to that pass rush, and now its two most important guys will miss at least half the season.
The projected pressure differential could make this game a real outlier for the Steelers in which they force multiple turnovers, Aaron Rodgers sits on the lead untouched, and Pittsburgh puts up a dominant score line that leads us all to overreact. The line moved from –3 to –3.5, and I think it will go even higher by kickoff on Sunday.
Bet: Consider Pittsburgh alt spreads
Notes on the Rest
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (–6.5)
- It’s surprising that the offseason helium around Detroit wasn’t reflected in the Week 1 market. Detroit has bounced between –7 and –6.5 across different sportsbooks in the lead-up to this game. That could be a reaction to Detroit’s worsening secondary situation now that both Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are out.
- When the Lions played against average to below-average pass rushes last year, they put up biblical offensive numbers: 52 points against Chicago, 38 against Baltimore, 37 against Cincy, 44 against Washington, and 44 against Dallas.
- I’m not saying that New Orleans is that bad, but garbage-time Tyler Shough could also help a potential over here given the state of Detroit’s secondary.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (–3.5)
- It’s hard to explain what went wrong with Tampa Bay’s defense in the second half of 2025. But given the major questions in the secondary, this is about the worst matchup it could have drawn in Week 1.
- We’ll know quickly how good the Bengals offensive line really is, as it’s matching up with a young and underrated Bucs pass rush.
- This will be a high-variance game. If you like Tampa, you should probably take the ML.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (–8.5)
- This isn’t a terrible matchup for Cleveland on offense given how limited the Jaguars defense is under the hood. The Jaguars have big names in the pass rush but below-average pressure rates. They don’t blitz much. I suspect they’ll be a popular survivor pick here, and Jacksonville’s stingy run defense will give the Browns very few clear paths to points that don’t rely on Deshaun Watson. Market support moved this line from Jags –7.5 to –8.5.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (–3.5)
- You won’t find a softer opponent for Kirk Cousins and Klint Kubiak to renew their partnership against. Miami offers zero pass rush or secondary.
- Given the quality of the Raiders linebackers, this could be an optimal game for Malik Willis as a runner. If the Dolphins are playing from behind, he may not have much opportunity to use his legs, but there’s a good chance he’ll end up with 40-plus yards.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (–1.5)
- I come into the season higher than the betting markets on both of these teams in what should be an incredibly competitive NFC North. Now that the Vikings have a competitive quarterback, both of these offenses should be hunting and finding explosives at every turn. Given that Green Bay has no pass rush and Minnesota’s secondary looks flawed, expect big-swing plays—and lots of points.
