Every NBA offseason arrives with massive anticipation, but this one feels spicier than usual. On the heels of the New York Knicks claiming their first title in 53 years, and the NBA seeing its eighth consecutive different champion, just about anything feels possible—and justifiable—this summer.
Every conversation begins with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been entangled in trade rumors for what truly feels like eternity. But reports suggest he will be the first domino to fall before next week’s draft, likely leading to an avalanche of movement across the league.
To preview a summer with so many possibilities (Giannis? LeBron? Jaylen?), the Ringer NBA writers assembled to offer some humble offseason predictions. Who are this summer’s most intriguing teams? Who will be the biggest star not named Giannis to move? And which lottery team will be the most dangerous next season? Without further ado, let’s dive in.
Which team is the most intriguing this offseason?
Howard Beck: Denver Nuggets. Denver can’t afford to stand still any longer. Nikola Jokic is still one of the 2-3 best players on Earth, but he’s 31 and the clock is ticking on his prime. The Nuggets haven’t made it past the second round since their 2023 championship run. Three years in the NBA is practically a lifetime. In that span, they’ve been ousted twice by the Timberwolves and once by the (eventual champion) Thunder. So it’s time to ask some tough questions, like: Is Aaron Gordon too injury-prone to rely on? Or is it time to trade him? How much should they pay to retain (restricted free agent) Peyton Watson? Can they afford to pay him without salary-dumping Cam Johnson or Christian Braun? Should they stick with this core (including costar Jamal Murray), or go for a dramatic overhaul?
Michael Pina: Denver Nuggets. There are a dozen teams that make sense here, but my eyes are on the Nuggets, too. In attempting to improve an injury-prone, athletically deficient roster, will their front office use a scalpel or a chainsaw? How much money will they have to spend? Is the second apron off-limits? Denver has a fiduciary responsibility to maximize Nikola Jokic’s prime. I still think he’s the best player walking planet Earth. Assuming they agree, what steps will the Nuggets take to prove it?
Logan Murdock: Boston Celtics. Last season, Jayson Tatum defied odds, and arguably conventional wisdom, by returning historically early from a torn Achilles. He looked great in spurts, but then got mysteriously shut down hours before a closeout playoff game, which should prompt some concern about his long-term health from both him and his employer. Meanwhile, Jaylen Brown, the guy standing to benefit the most from Tatum’s uncertainty, is picking fights on the internet, and might get traded. Two years ago, there were dynasty plans in Beantown. Now, hubris is threatening to prematurely blow up the team’s core before it reaches its prime. Grab ya popcorn.
Danny Chau: Washington Wizards. I think the Wizards are at a very exciting and revealing juncture in the team’s rebuild. The draft obviously offers as good a shot at landing a true franchise-changing cornerstone as the team has had in more than a decade. The presence of All-Stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis creates avenues to either generate surplus value in buy-low, sell-high trade scenarios or just outright compete with a balanced roster. There’s no real indication which direction the Wizards are going, but either way is an improvement from wherever they’ve been for the past half-decade.
Isaac Levy-Rubinett: Los Angeles Lakers. I’ll go with the team that traded for Luka Doncic a season and a half ago and still doesn’t really have a roadmap toward building a complementary roster around him. There are valid reasons for that: The parameters of the CBA make it difficult to build a contender, and LeBron James's free agency potentially throws a massive wrench in their plans. Plus, it’s not like the Lakers were bad last season; they won 53 games and a playoff series despite injuries to Doncic and Austin Reaves (also a free agent!). But Los Angeles’s new ownership has touted its process and overall investment in the team. At a certain point, the Lakers need to break out of this LeBron-Luka holding pattern and establish a real direction.
Matt Dollinger: Miami Heat. The Spurs and Thunder have the most intriguing possibilities, but they’re unlikely to do anything drastic. The Heat, on the other hand, seem dead set on making a splash. If 81-year-old Pat Riley wasn’t already frustrated enough with the Heat’s post-LeBron era, imagine what the New York Knicks’ first title in 53 years is doing to him. Riley said in April he isn’t retiring and everyone on the Heat not named Bam Adebayo has been in trade rumors for over a year. Riley seems intent on proving he can still bring stars to South Beach. If he misses out on Giannis, I still think he’s going down swinging this summer. Can he get Kawhi Leonard or Jaylen Brown? Either way, he’s trying something. “I want another parade down Biscayne Boulevard,” Riley said in April. “It may come. It may not.”
What’s the most overrated story line this summer?
Pina: LeBron James’s free agency. It’s not that he’s anything close to bad or irrelevant, but the Los Angeles Lakers aren’t particularly close to winning it all and it’s hard to see him, at 42 years old, staying fresh enough through four playoff rounds to impact the title picture for whichever team he decides to play for. I love watching LeBron play basketball and don’t look forward to his retirement. The intrigue about how much money he makes, and who's paying it, simply feels overblown because he isn't going to decide who wins it all next year, though. Unless … he signs with the Clippers 😈
Beck: Am I allowed to take-shame myself here? We—by which I mean, most definitely I—will be spending an inordinate amount of energy fussing over the fates of LeBron, Steph, KD, and Kawhi. Could LeBron join Steph in San Francisco? If not, could the Warriors acquire Kawhi? Can the Rockets acquire another piece or two to give KD a legit shot at the Finals?
We—by which I mean, I—will do this for perfectly noble reasons. Because we (yep, I) don’t like to see NBA legends fade or become an afterthought. And the possibility that, say, Steph and LeBron could join forces, Avengers-style, and make an unlikely run for the championship is too enticing to resist.
The reality is, there’s very little chance we’ll see any of these four in the Finals again. Every story line involving them is almost overrated by definition. Will it stop any of us (me) from obsessing over their fates anyway? Of course not.
Chau: The Chet Holmgren discourse. Immediately after the seven-game Western Conference finals, it seemed like the most logical thing for the Thunder to do would be to trade Holmgren to Milwaukee for Giannis after Chet endured a protracted public humiliation at the hands of Victor Wembanyama. That one-time rivalry may be a shut case, but Wemby being at least an order of magnitude better than Holmgren doesn’t mean Chet isn’t himself an incredibly valuable player with a skeleton-key skill set as a big man. Holmgren only recently turned 24. There’s a whole lot of room for him to grow.
Levy-Rubinett: Ja Morant’s trade market. I refuse to care about this. He’s not that good!
Dollinger: Victor Wembanyama’s redemption tour. I can’t do another summer of weird Wemby story lines. Losing in the NBA Finals as a young star is not a unique experience. There are practical solutions here. Let’s just jump-cut to August and the report that Wemby has actually grown two inches and put on 25 pounds. That’s a story line I can get behind. I’m not on Jalen Brunson levels here, but I do think Wemby did a little too much talking during the Finals and needs to chill on the narrative arc a little bit.
Murdock: Discontent stars trying to move to another team. This story line is so 2010, I’m sick of it. For the past year, Giannis is acting like a bruh taking a hella long time to get into the double dutch session. Either do something or let someone else get some shine! Now that the offseason is here, it’s even more anticlimactic. The reported two front-runners, the Heat and Celtics, will still have plenty of questions even if they get the Greek Freak.
I’m supposed to think pairing Giannis with Tatum makes the Celtics a contender after I saw Tatum barely able to play for a month straight after returning prematurely from an Achilles injury? I’m supposed to think Giannis can hold up the slack when he hasn’t played more than 70 regular-season games in consecutive seasons since before the pandemic? And we haven’t gotten to the awkward fit, which will take at least a few months to figure out, no matter how gifted a tactician Joe Mazzulla is. Acquiring aging stars used to be the cat’s meow back in the good ol’ days, when luxury taxes and aprons didn’t hinder a team’s ability to build around them. Now, as the Spurs, Knicks, and Thunder have taught us, the en vogue thing to do is draft well and take some big swings on trades. Any team that takes on Giannis will be sacrificing the depth required to win a title, and may not even have their prized asset by playoff time. Plus, if the past decade of star-chasing teams is a guide, this probably won’t turn out as well as Giannis thinks, either.
Who will be the biggest star not named Giannis to change teams?
Pina: Well, being that I think Giannis could be going to the Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown! Coming off the best season of his career, nearly making first-team All-NBA and finishing 6th for MVP, Brown is a bona fide superstar in the prime of his career. Where he actually ends up in this scenario is a mystery. Does he land with the Blazers, Hawks, Rockets, Clippers, or…Heat? Does a mystery team come out of nowhere? The Cavs? The Timberwolves? These all feel impossible and pretty much are, but in the event Boston trades for Antetokounmpo, the ripple effects could be unforeseeable.
Chau: How about an even bigger star? We’ve been circling around the idea of LeBron James in Golden State for a few years now, and this offseason presents the cleanest opportunity for it to actually materialize. Even at this advanced stage of their respective careers, Steph and LeBron still clearly have quite a bit left in the tank. LeBron may be the GOAT of the 21st century, but Curry might be the player whom other players would most want to play with (well, him and Wemby, at this point), just to experience firsthand how his gravity and influence reshapes the court. Brian Windhorst seems confident that James will stay put in L.A., but if the Bossman is willing to bet his life on the Warriors having a real shot at landing the King, I will join him on that ship. O Captain, my Captain!
Beck: Kawhi Leonard. It’s time for a divorce in L.A., where the Clippers and Kawhi have mostly inspired heartbreak and angst, occasionally interrupted by a burst of false hope. Maybe the NBA breaks them up by voiding Leonard’s contract as part of the cap-circumvention case that’s due to conclude any minute now. If not, it’s easy to see the Clippers opting for a ritual cleanse by trading Leonard—coming off one of his best seasons—and rebuilding around Darius Garland and the fifth pick in the draft.
Levy-Rubinett: Kawhi. I’m thinking the same as Howard. There’s enough smoke for me to think there’s real fire underneath the Leonard rumors that have burbled up recently, and he should be viewed as more than a mere consolation prize for whichever team misses out on Giannis. The Bucks’ star has played just 17 more games than Kawhi over the past four seasons, and Leonard’s razor-sharp two-way game is an easier fit with more teams. Which desperate team will talk themselves into rolling the dice on Kawhi? (I’ll predict Minnesota!)
Dollinger: Jaylen Brown. Regardless of a Giannis trade, it just feels like we’re done here. The end of the Celtics’ season left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, and Brown’s livestreams and constant clue-dropping is only worsening things. Brown proved last season that he can be an alpha and he wants a full-time shot. It might be time for Brad Stevens to reinvent the Celtics again. The market for Brown might be too attractive to stand pat, too.
Play matchmaker: What's one trade or free-agent move you desperately want to see?
Beck: Do I want to see LeBron and Steph join forces, Avengers-style, and make an unlikely run for the championship? You’re damn right I do. (And screw that guy take-shaming me in Question 2.)
Chau: Craig Porter Jr. to the Magic. Cleveland’s got bigger issues to deal with as far as getting under the second apron. If Porter winds up being a cap casualty of whatever happens with the Cavs, he’d be a welcome addition to an Orlando squad in need of a backup point guard. Porter is awfully small, but has a rare gift of anticipation that leads to steals and blocks at absurd rates—not to mention a sterling assist-to-turnover ratio. We’ve yet to see if that kind of production could scale to a more regular minute allotment. Given the kind of aggressive defensive approach new head coach Sean Sweeney instilled in the Spurs this past season, an instinctual defensive playmaker like Porter would be a perfect fit off the bench. … oh, sorry, was that not the answer you were looking for?
Dollinger: Kawhi to the Nuggets. Apologies for the full-blown Michael Pina Fever Dream, but as a basketball fan, this would also just be awesome. Joker and Kawhi would form the NBA’s most devastating duo and could wreak havoc in the playoffs. The wiser move would probably be for Denver to try and get younger, but it’s tough to play the long game when you’ve got a superstar in his prime. If Denver can find a third team to take on Aaron Gordon and facilitate a bizarre blockbuster, maybe Jokic gets the best teammate he’s ever had.
Levy-Rubinett: If the past two seasons have taught us anything, it’s GET THE HELL OUT OF SACRAMENTO. Tyrese Haliburton was traded to the Pacers in 2022, and made the Finals in 2025. De’Aaron Fox was traded in 2025, and turned around to make the Finals in 2026 (even if he did stink up the joint once he got there). Mike Brown was fired by the Kings in 2024 and won a championship with the Knicks 18 months later. All of which is to say, I desperately want to see Domantas Sabonis find his way to the Charlotte Hornets and, eventually, the 2028 NBA Finals.
Pina: Let’s get Trey Murphy III to the Detroit Pistons. Kill three birds with one stone: Give the Pistons someone who can space the floor, guard several positions, and assume some ballhandling responsibilities from Cade Cunningham. Murphy is only one year older than Cunningham and makes perfect sense growing with Detroit’s young core. So far as the package back to New Orleans goes, what about Isaiah Stewart, Ron Holland II, and four first-round picks? How do the Pelicans turn that down? Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, please do right by your former employer and give them the player who could help them win a championship!
Murdock: Trade Jaylen Brown to Utah, and see if he can take that team to the playoffs.
Give us one random prediction for the summer.
Pina: The Brooklyn Nets will offer Austin Reaves a max contract, and he will sign it. Brooklyn does not have control over its own pick next season, and even if it did, wasting another year at the bottom of the standings would be super sad. Reaves is a step towards respectability—a highly efficient, aggressive, high-usage ball handler. Just getting an All-Star caliber player who is fun to watch in the door will be worth it. Reaves, Michael Porter Jr., and whoever gets taken with the sixth overall pick is…something!
Chau: Five years ago, Victor Wembanyama spent 10 days with the legendary shooting coach Holger Geschwindner to absorb the wisdom of a man who taught basketball as sort of a conceptual art form. By the end of Wemby’s visit, all Holger could say was, “Victor doesn’t need any damn coach.” But I can imagine Wembanyama opting against a Shaolin sequel and instead heading to Germany to meet Geschwindner once again over some schweinshaxe and a Bavarian pilsner, listening to Charlie Parker’s rendition of “All The Things You Are” and imagining the shape in which Wembanyama’s signature move might take.
Murdock: The city of Portland will justifiably revolt against Tom Dundon and Adam Silver for what they’ve done to the Blazers. Nasty work from those two.
Beck: The Grizzlies will strike out in attempts to trade Ja Morant, setting up the most
awkward media day since Ben Simmons’s no-show in Philly in 2021.
Levy-Rubinett: The league’s new 3-2-1 draft lottery system will be the sneaky story of the offseason. Even though the new system doesn’t kick in until next year’s drawing, teams are already mapping out how the revised odds should impact their team-building strategies. I expect teams to clutch their future first-round picks even more tightly now; nobody wants to trade a pick that could end up at the very top of the draft. It’s wild to me that the NBA is instituting these changes on such a short timeline—it’s a dramatic change that will touch every move on the market this summer.
Dollinger: I’m giving James Dolan like, one more month before he completely ruins all this Knicks goodwill again. You know he’s just biting his tongue right now. A Knicks title has probably unlocked the worst ideas. Savor the parade.
Which non-playoff team will be the most dangerous next season?
Chau: Indiana Pacers. I think I’ll go with the team that took the eventual 2024-25 champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the NBA Finals. The Pacers endured a legendary string of bad luck this past season, but if Haliburton can regain his form from an iconic postseason run in 2025, all things are possible.
Pina: Utah Jazz. I continue to be all in on what the Jazz are doing. I don’t care who they draft or what happens with Walker Kessler’s restricted free agency. This will be a huge, hyper-skilled, creatively-coached team that could have multiple All-Stars and the Rookie of the Year on their team next season. Keyonte George rules. Lauri Markkanen makes life easier for everyone. Jaren Jackson Jr. is two years removed from winning Defensive Player of the Year. The bench is quietly well put-together (John Konchar does a little bit of everything, Isaiah Collier is fast as hell, Kyle Filipowski creates matchup problems, and Brice Sensabaugh will one day make someone write a column wondering why he should be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate). Even though I don’t know who will be on it and have never seen them play, I love the 2026-27 Jazz.
Beck: Indiana Pacers. Tyrese Haliburton will be back, after 18 months rehabbing his Achilles. Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard are still there. Ivica Zubac, acquired in February, will embolden their defense. Regardless of what else the Pacers do this summer, this is a seasoned, tenacious, confident crew—and, notably, the last team to beat the Knicks in a playoff series.
Murdock: Indiana Pacers. The Eastern Conference remains wide open, and the Pacers are bringing back the bones of a team that made a Finals run. I’m making this pick mostly because of the depressing other options.
Dollinger: Golden State Warriors. If the Warriors can pace themselves during the 82-game exhibition season and peak during the playoffs, who knows? It feels unfair to just let Steph Curry fade to black. Golden State will try something, and I’m hoping the powers of Steph and Draymond Green can take it from there. Give us one more run.
Levy-Rubinett: Giannis plus Heat Culture? Look out.
