Championship windows close at various speeds. Some slam shut in the blink of an eye. Others slowly descend, allowing for the slight possibility of a return to the top—an exceedingly rare best-case scenario that was last pulled off by the 2022 Golden State Warriors.
Time will tell where the Denver Nuggets fall on that scale. But right now, one day after they were eliminated in humiliating fashion by the injury-riddled Minnesota Timberwolves, it would be perfectly fair to wonder whether Thursday night was the end of an era. How could you not?
The Nuggets were favored to win this series before Anthony Edwards injured his knee and Donte DiVincenzo tore his Achilles tendon. Minnesota’s starting backcourt and its third-best guard, Ayo Dosunmu, did not play Thursday night, forcing the Wolves to start Mike Conley and Terrence Shannon Jr. in a closeout game. Losing to that team with your season on the line? Come on, now. The Nuggets lost 110-98. They had no composure or edge. Rebounds were optional. Foolish decisions were mandatory.
Again, with its season on the line, Denver attempted 19 fewer shots than Minnesota. Tyus Jones handled the ball in critical situations. And Jaden McDaniels—who finished with a game-high 32 points, 10 rebounds, two steals, a block, and 40-plus minutes of hellacious defense just days after publicly calling out several Nuggets by name—was flat-out unstoppable. For most of the night, it was hard to differentiate Denver’s level of urgency from where it sat a month ago, when the Nuggets barely mustered enough energy to beat the tanking Utah Jazz.
The problems spread far beyond Game 6. The focus, execution, and toughness that are required to win an NBA playoff series just weren’t there. Instead, for the past couple of weeks, the Nuggets were unsustainably frail, rolling out small lineups that couldn’t muster the type of force that’s nonnegotiable in the playoffs. Worn and broken, the Swiss-watch precision of their no. 1–ranked offense got bashed in by a rock.
Nikola Jokic damn near averaged a 25-point triple-double in this series, but the eye test and his dingy shooting splits tell us that he was a shell of himself. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray’s jumper deserted him at the worst possible time, and his porous defense was underlined in bold on Minnesota’s scouting report. The Timberwolves punished Denver’s dynamic duo on both ends of the floor, with Rudy Gobert and McDaniels each enjoying, arguably, the two most impressive weeks of their respective careers.
The Nuggets did not have Aaron Gordon for most of the first round and were without Peyton Watson for all of it. Both are talented, sure. But more importantly, they’re functionally irreplaceable on Denver’s limited roster and provide the defensive intangibles, muscle, and length necessary for the postseason. At the same time, what does it say about a contender that it needs guys like them to win a few games against such a comically undermanned opponent?
Missed 3s tell part of the story—no playoff team saw a greater drop in 3-point percentage relative to what it was during the regular season than Denver—but they don’t excuse such a soul-crushing upset. The Nuggets finished 4-for-20 above the break in Game 6. That’s bad. But the Timberwolves finished 4-for-23. That’s worse. It never seemed to matter who was on the court. Minnesota got into the paint whenever it wanted for most of the series. (Shannon’s and-1 layup with under two minutes to go in a one-possession game was downright galling.)
It’s all bad news for the Nuggets. As they head into the summer, things are unfortunately about to get even more dour. The two greatest obstacles they’re about to face are even more imposing than whatever the San Antonio Spurs would’ve thrown at them: time and money. Both are directly related to Jokic, who, at 31 years old, just had the worst playoff series of his career and is now eligible for a massive extension. I am willing to go out on a limb and say that the Nuggets will offer Jokic that contract and effectively lock up this generation’s best player for the rest of his prime. For the sake of argument, let’s assume he will be thrilled to sign it. (Jokic reiterated Thursday night that he “still wants to be a Nugget forever.”) But here’s where things get complicated for an aging squad that was just deleted from the first round and thrust into an existential offseason that will decide their future.
Maybe the Nuggets will look at what just happened and see themselves as victims of bad luck. Gordon and Watson were hurt, and the Wolves were a bad matchup. They still had the best offense in the NBA, won 54 games, and believe Jokic never fully recovered from the knee injury that sidelined him for a month after Christmas. Roll it all together, and that championship window you speak of? Still ajar! All they need is for Gordon to be healthy and Jokic to get back to a level where no one (even Gobert) can touch him one-on-one, and everything else will fall into place.
Maybe Denver has that type of faith. But, back in reality, there’s one problem: If this group can’t beat the decimated Wolves, how will it compete against the Thunder and Spurs? As it currently exists, Denver’s roster is just too expensive not to win a playoff series. Its payroll for next season is already well into the luxury tax without new deals for Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Bruce Brown.
This brings us to a fork in the road … and his name is Peyton Watson. A restricted free agent who might have won Most Improved Player if he didn’t get hurt and who should absolutely receive a humongous offer sheet from someone with cap space (I’m looking at you, Washington Wizards, Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets, and Chicago Bulls). Losing the 23-year-old would be a catastrophic blow to Denver’s standing as anything close to a title contender. It’s like a Jenga tower: Pull Watson’s block out, and it could all come crashing down.
So far as sustaining life as a title contender goes, the days of a nimble pivot are borderline extinct. When a team that wants to win needs to make a big trade to get better, the more realistic response these days tends to be restraint. Thank you, everyone who negotiated this collective bargaining agreement, for creating a system that curbs ambition by turning teams that really go for it into Icarus: Fly too close to the sun, and you’re plummeting into the sea. Alas, this is where the Nuggets currently find themselves. Their mistake was signing Christian Braun to a five-year, $125 million extension back in October, only for him to be invisible against Minnesota.
To make matters worse, Denver has only one tradable first-round pick over the next five years, and it has to be moved before the draft. Will the Nuggets attach it to Braun in an effort to shed enough money to be able to afford Watson? Is it possible to get off of Cameron Johnson’s expiring contract without having to add any picks? If yes, can they do so without taking back any long-term money? The market for Zeke Nnaji does not exist, but could Julian Strawther or DaRon Holmes II be of interest to anyone? And, critically, can they restock the bench with veterans on the minimum who can either play defense or, like, be athletic? Jordan Goodwin? Javonte Green? Anyone?
If all of this sounds bleak, that’s because it is. Remember that championship window? Maybe the Nuggets will be content to run it back with Jokic on a gigantic new extension, Murray coming off his first All-Star season, and, hopefully, a healthier Gordon just to maintain competitiveness and relevance. Maybe they keep their pick and unearth an instant-impact gem at no. 26. Maybe they'll find a new home for Johnson, re-sign Watson, and watch him become an elite two-way wing. Maybe everyone on board is OK entering the playoffs as an underdog these next few years, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with a favorable matchup or two.
Maybe, like those Warriors from a few years ago, the Nuggets will be able to defy seemingly insurmountable odds and scale a mountain that, today, seems far too steep. It’s not impossible. Of course, the other side of that coin is far darker and involves wondering aloud what they could get for Jokic and/or Murray in a league-altering trade. We aren’t quite there yet, though. The Nuggets aren’t roadkill, even if it looked that way in these playoffs. But few teams are entering the summer with a wider range of outlooks and options. The whole league will be watching.
