In a coaching cycle of surprises, the biggest shock came Monday morning when the Buffalo Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott after nine seasons.
Yes, unless we’re learning that the problem with McDermott’s coaching was that he was doing it at sea, that’s a typo in the first sentence. But don’t let that distract you from what a stunner this move is.
Since the end of the regular season, eight head coaches have been fired or parted ways with their teams. That includes John Harbaugh, a Super Bowl winner with the fourth-most victories of any active head coach, and who made the playoffs in 12 of the last 18 seasons and three of the last four; Mike Tomlin, who has never had a losing record despite a comically bad string of quarterbacks; and now McDermott, who has a 106-58 record and was a couple of plays away from making it to the AFC championship game two days ago. The NFL is in a new era when team owners are willing to make these big moves, but McDermott’s ouster sets a new bar.
It’s not that there hadn’t been any signs. McDermott’s reaction to the officiating at the end of the game, particularly the call that ruled an interception for Broncos cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian instead of a catch for Bills receiver Brandin Cooks, showed his desperation. Though he talked about the ruling in his regular postgame press conference, McDermott took the unusual step of calling Buffalo News Bills reporter Jay Skurski from the team plane to comment further on the record.
“That play is not even close,” McDermott said. “That’s a catch all the way. I sat in my locker and I looked at it probably 20 times, and nobody can convince me that that ball is not caught and in possession of Buffalo. I just have no idea how the NFL handled it, in particular, the way that they did. I think the players and the fans deserve an explanation, you know?”
Calling it a “coach’s pool report,” sure does sound nicer than “public crash-out when you know you’re getting fired.”
But in the bigger picture, it’s rare for a coach with McDermott’s track record to get a pink slip. He coached the Bills to playoff appearances in eight of nine seasons. He won at least one playoff game for six straight. The Bills had won their division for five years in a row, though that run ended this season, and he has the third-best winning percentage of any active coach. The Bills have been a legitimate Super Bowl contender basically wall-to-wall for the past six years.
Given that all that regular-season success and potential have given way to six hugely disappointing playoff losses in a row, it’s not indefensible to conclude that McDermott couldn’t get the Bills over the hump and that he’d already given the team the best he had. Coaching partnerships do run their course. It’s just eye-opening that this is how these decisions can go now.
A bit harder to defend is how owner Terry Pegula determined that this sudden accountability should all fall on coaching and not roster management. In his announcement, Pegula shared that general manager Brandon Beane is staying on and will lead the team’s search for a new head coach. He’s actually getting a promotion—his new title is president of football operations/general manager—and gaining oversight of the coaching staff.
As has been the case with other teams like the Browns, firings are coming faster for coaches than GMs, who usually have closer relationships with team owners. This is a particular concern in Buffalo, where fans have watched the Pegulas’ other team, the NHL’s Sabres, suffer from this exact dynamic. The downtrodden Sabres have cycled through seven coaches in 12 years while their general manager, Kevyn Adams—who had a reputation for being very close with the Pegula family—seemed to fail upward while holding his role for a decade before finally being fired in the middle of this season.
The Bills don’t become a perennial contender without a fair bit of talent. Beane drafted Allen in 2018 and can therefore claim credit as the architect of, by far, the most important decision that reshaped the team. But if the shoe is dropping because of the Bills’ playoff defeats, then the aging defense and limited roster, which force Allen to play superhero ball, seem more culpable than the coaching. Allen didn’t play well against the Broncos, but no serious person is making the argument that Allen is the problem in Buffalo, and it might have helped if he hadn’t been throwing to a receiving group of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Cooks. Injuries played a part, but receiver was enough of a concern last offseason that Beane went on a rant during a radio interview criticizing the hosts for “bitching” about the team’s receiver situation which Beane didn’t see as a problem.
Now once again, the Bills are heading into this offseason facing a needed revamp of that receiving group. Two starting linemen, center Connor McGovern and left guard David Edwards, will also be hitting free agency, as will several key pieces of the defense. This is also the year when the salary-cap hit from Allen’s contract balloons from $36 million to $56 million.
With seven non-Bills head coaching jobs still open, McDermott seems more than likely to get a new gig right away, meaning the Bills seem to have failed the “Did the coach you fired immediately become the hottest candidate on the market” test. With John Harbaugh and Kevin Stefanski off the market, McDermott should have plenty of suitors. The strongest part of McDermott’s résumé is as a program builder, someone who took a languishing franchise and turned it into a perennial contender. For a team like the Titans or the Raiders, that should be attractive.
On the Bills side, they now present an obscenely good job opening. The job comes with a 29-year-old quarterback who has a reasonable claim as the best player alive who has never missed a game as a full-time starter. The Ravens could argue they have similar advantages, but Lamar Jackson has a history of missing games due to injury. It’s likely that many candidates who have made progress interviewing with other teams will be willing to hit the brakes on pursuing those opportunities to figure out whether they have a shot at the Buffalo job.
The caveat, of course, is that Buffalo has elected to make this big move while the market is weak. It’s entirely possible that, even considering the job’s desirability, this will end with the Bills hiring Brian Daboll or promoting OC Joe Brady, and it will be a bit harder to convincingly make the same statements about the value of clean slates if one of those possibilities end up happening.
If they do look outside their own history of guys who have called plays for Allen, then young, offensive-coaches like Klint Kubiak, Davis Webb, Mike LaFleur, or Nate Scheelhaase would bring a skill set different from McDermott’s. Buffalo could also go after a proven Super Bowl winner like Tomlin, though he seems determined to take at least a year away. And because the Steelers retain his rights, the Bills would likely have to give up draft picks to trade for him.
A major question for any candidate should be how they plan to hire to coach the offensive line. The Bills already had a critical coaching vacancy to fill after offensive line coach Aaron Kromer’s retirement, which was reported Sunday. Kromer has a reputation as one of the best offensive line coaches in the league, and great OL coaches are a scarce resource. Since his second stint in Buffalo began in 2022, the Bills’ offensive line was a major team strength, protecting Allen and allowing the run game to flourish. Of course, the new coach’s relationship with Allen will also be critical.
The Bills are already close to the ultimate prize. They’re making a big move here in the hopes that a change will make them just a little bit better. But in a lackluster year for candidates, Pegula is making a bet that he and Beane can identify someone not just good, but great. It’s hard to see the bottom falling out as long as Allen continues playing at this level, but it’s still a risky move. The biggest surprise of this cycle would have to be.
