After last week’s reports that Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are actively discussing his future in Milwaukee, the NBA discourse has leaned fully into trade-machine mode. But this new blockbuster saga will unfold within front offices that must navigate two massive leaguewide trends: first, the evolving market under the NBA’s new-ish collective bargaining agreement, and second, the emergence of the Oklahoma City Thunder as massive championship favorites.
The stage is set, but the backdrop is quirky. The Greek drama rippling through the NBA has three main characters: the Bucks organization, Giannis himself, and the 29 other teams in position to jockey for his services.
The Bucks have been in steady decline since winning the title in 2021, slowly turning the best squad in the league into a thin, uneven mess. Thanks to a series of big strikeouts in the draft, muffed coaching hires, dumb trades, and the largest waive-and-stretch move in NBA history, the team is flailing, and given its recent track record, it’s hard to predict how this organization will manage its biggest potential transaction since it traded Kareem 50 years ago. Will it do the right thing? I’m not sure it deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point.
Then there’s Antetokounmpo himself, who is still squarely in his prime and wants to compete for championships. The extent to which Giannis will dictate his next destination is perhaps the biggest variable in the emerging market—if he puts his thumb on the scale to get to New York, for example, it could severely damage Milwaukee’s leverage in negotiations with other teams. That brings us to the rest of the league.
Under traditional circumstances, the trade market for a two-time MVP in his prime would be vast, and teams would be lining up to land him. After all, superstars don’t grow on trees, and the chance to acquire one of the league’s most dominant forces is a once-in-a-decade kind of opportunity.
But the mid-2020s are not traditional circumstances. The CBA makes trades trickier than ever, to the point that just the simple act of designing an allowable exchange is difficult, especially during the season. And its hyper-punitive overspending rules have increased the relative value of first-round draft picks while also raising the risks associated with overpaying supermax players on the wrong side of 30. That’s very relevant here, especially considering Antetokounmpo's recent injuries—and the current calf strain that will likely sideline him for another two to three weeks.
Yet, when you talk to people around the league, there's another factor that almost always comes up in conversations about the market for Giannis: the Thunder. That’s because the defending champions seem flat-out inevitable. They are currently 23-1, are winners of 15 straight games, and are on pace to shatter the league’s record for net rating and winning percentage. They’ve done all that while missing key starters for large chunks of time.
Put it this way: At this point in the 2023-24 season, the Celtics were title favorites with +370 odds on FanDuel; the next-highest odds belonged to the Nuggets, at +400. On this day one year ago, Boston was at the top of the title picture with +200 odds, trailed by OKC at +500. As of Tuesday, the Thunder’s title odds for the 2025-26 season were +130, with the next-best team, Denver, coming in at +700. Their status as massive favorites is as ironclad as anything the NBA has seen in years.
More on the Giannis Trade Rumblings
OKC has emerged as such a juggernaut this season that some potential suitors, particularly those out West, may not be so eager to mash the “win-now” button. Teams around the NBA are asking themselves a version of the question that Zach Lowe asked me on his show last week: “When should you try to take on the Thunder?”
On the one hand, it sure doesn’t seem like now is a great time, especially if coming at OKC with your best shot now entails weakening your future position. In a more wide-open league, teams might talk themselves into being “a Giannis away” from the promised land, but right now, the promised land seems like it’s already occupied by a buzz saw in Oklahoma.
On the other hand, this might be the best shot teams are going to get. Oklahoma City is set to receive the Clippers’ first-round pick in the loaded 2026 draft, to say nothing of the plethora of other future draft assets coming its way over the next several years. Its best players are all in or entering their mid-20s. Its cap sheet is meticulously laid out, and its player development program is best in class. There’s every reason to think that the Thunder will only put more distance between themselves and the rest of the league.
This calculus is looming large for both San Antonio and Houston, two teams that are good now but also feature loads of young players who have yet to reach their peaks. Of course, Milwaukee might want to start a rebuild with Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Amen Thompson, or Alperen Sengun, but the Spurs and Rockets might rather let their current cores develop. Rather than try to land a knockout blow right now, they might be able to throw multiple punches at OKC over the next several years.
The calculus for Eastern Conference teams is somewhat different. While the teams at the top of the West are craning their necks to look up at OKC, the race to win the East is as wide open as any I can recall. Teams like Miami and New York don’t have the bounty of young talent that the Spurs and Rockets have, but they do have something those teams don’t: a relatively clear path to the conference championship. Those teams, plus the Pistons and any other Eastern Conference strivers, have to weigh whether to go all in just to make the Finals and decide whether adding Giannis would give them a puncher’s chance against OKC.
If you zoom out beyond the Giannis market, the Thunder also exemplify a broader tectonic shift under the league. There are three main ways to build a team in the NBA: the draft, trades, and free agency. But this current CBA has deformed the team-building pie chart. By making trades harder, it has weakened the trade market. Its dreaded aprons also make overpaying star talent in free agency more risky than ever, which means—in a zero-sum team-building game—that the relative value of future draft picks and young “cost-controlled” talent is rising by default. Make no mistake, these assets have always been vital, but their importance is surging thanks to the current environment.
If you want proof, just compare the tale of the two cities at the heart of this story. Both the Bucks and Thunder were built around MVP talents, but the similarities end there.
Incredibly, Giannis is the only player on the current Milwaukee roster who was drafted by the team. That’s absurd, but it’s also a huge reason why it’s failed to build depth around him at this key phase of his prime. Instead, it’s leaned on trades and free agency. It hasn’t worked over the long term—and the team’s massive failures in the draft are a cautionary tale. Look at this filth. One scout told me that he considered the Bucks’ recent draft history to be “probably the worst in the NBA.”
By contrast, OKC’s ability to surround its centerpiece with elite young talent like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is brought to you by Sam Presti’s endless supply of draft capital, along with the team’s reliable scouting and player development apparatus. Sure, OKC dipped into free agency to land Isaiah Hartenstein and used the trade market to acquire Alex Caruso, but the Thunder’s commitment to the draft is the bedrock of their signature success.
In a copycat league, the Thunder have become the new blueprint. OKC’s deep roster of young talent was largely built with patience and a long-term perspective, and the whole league knows it. Any team that wants to dethrone these champions has to be deep, healthy, and versatile. In the time of aprons and complex trade restrictions, draft picks are the best way to build something sustainable. Teams that are using the draft effectively to build homegrown stars are in much better condition, and have way longer runways, than teams that are trying to rely on trades and free agency.
But here’s the thing—the NBA is also a “cautionary tale” league, and the current plights of teams like the Clippers are also relevant. Six years after they sent a war chest of youth to Oklahoma for Paul George, the legacy of that deal still casts a large shadow. Maybe Milwaukee will convince a trade partner to part with a bunch of future assets to land one of the most talented players on the planet. But there might not be a quick fix. The aspiration around the league is to be the next Thunder, not the next Clippers.
