Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, the Chiefs offense hit rock bottom as the dynasty continues to crumble, the Packers-Bears series finally feels like a real rivalry again, “what is a catch” discourse is back, and more. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Loser: The Chiefs Dynasty
According to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, there’s now an 84 percent chance that we’ll see something that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago: the Chiefs, with a healthy Patrick Mahomes, in his prime, missing the playoffs. Sunday’s 20-10 loss to the Texans dropped their odds of earning a postseason berth to just 16 percent; that jumps to just 52 percent if they win all of their final four games.
With a month left in the regular season, the three-time defending AFC champs find themselves in a three-way tie with Baltimore and Miami for ninth place in the conference. If Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach didn’t have so much goodwill—with the three Super Bowl rings and whatnot—I wonder if they might have found themselves on the hot seat. Missing the playoffs with one of the most talented quarterbacks this league has ever seen and a very favorable schedule that featured nine home games and only seven true road games would typically be viewed as a fireable offense. That’s not likely to happen here, but the reality is that right now the Chiefs are a poorly coached team that lacks high-end talent outside of the quarterback position.
Reid and Veach haven’t delivered this season, though the team they’ve built is probably better than its 6-7 record indicates. After running the table in one-score games a year ago and finishing the regular season 15-2, the Chiefs haven’t won a single close game all season. The loss to Houston on Sunday night was the first time all season they’ve lost by more than one score. In an alternate universe, this team, with largely the same roster as last season, is still enjoying that same devil’s magic and is cruising into the playoffs.
Some good may come out of this tragic reversal of fortune. It should force the organization to finally make an honest assessment of the roster, which should lead to a conclusion that was painfully obvious back in September: the team around Mahomes kind of stinks, and Reid’s coaching is no longer making up for it. Sunday’s game against a stellar Texans defense offered an extreme example. Kansas City’s offensive line, which had already been decimated by injuries and lost tackle Wanya Morris on the very first snap of the game, couldn’t protect, and the receiving corps couldn’t catch a pass. Rashee Rice’s fourth-down drop when the game was tied at 10 in the fourth quarter was the beginning of the end for the Chiefs on Sunday night. Mahomes was left exasperated with his face buried in the turf.
Not long after that, Travis Kelce basically handed to the Texans a third interception off Mahomes. It might be time to turn that podcast into a full-time job.
That was one of six dropped passes for the Chiefs on the night. That’s the most ever in a single game during the Mahomes era, and, unsurprisingly, contributed to what was the worst statistical game of his career. It was also the worst offensive performance in this entire era of Chiefs football.
And yet, thanks largely to the defense, Kansas City still had a good shot at winning this game in the fourth quarter before Reid’s inexplicable decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 on the 31-yard-line. The numbers backed the decision to go for it, but this was a “read the game” situation. The Chiefs offense was dead in the water and up against one of the league’s best defenses. The Texans offense, meanwhile, was dealing with its own issues moving the ball, and Reid should have known that a failed fourth-down attempt would set Houston up in field goal range. I totally get Reid trusting Mahomes in that situation, but the rest of the offense hadn’t earned that same level of trust—and the defense certainly had. The Texans scored the game-winning touchdown shortly after the failed fourth-down attempt. Reid didn’t give his defense a chance.
And now the Chiefs have no margin for error over the final month of the season. They should be able to bank wins against the Titans and Raiders, but a home game against the Chargers feels like a toss-up, and Denver could be favored when they travel to Arrowhead on Christmas night in a game that could be a division clincher for the Broncos.
If the first 13 games of the season weren’t enough to give up on this Chiefs season amounting to anything, maybe the sight of another team donning “AFC West Champs” shirts and hats will do the trick.
Winner: The Packers-Bears “Rivalry”
We’ve been told all our lives that this is one of the NFL’s greatest rivalries, but I can count all of the meaningful moments from it in this century on one hand, with fingers to spare. There was Aaron Rodgers’s fourth-down throw to Randall Cobb to win the division in 2013. There was the opening-week comeback in 2018 when Rodgers hurt his knee and may have been the highest man in America (allegedly) after the training staff got him right at the half. And then there was the time Rodgers told Bears fans “I own you” … and their only response was well, yeah. This may have been a great rivalry at some point, but recently, it’s just been Green Bay quarterbacks tormenting an entire team and fan base. Chicago hasn’t won two straight games in the series in nearly 20 years. And after Green Bay’s 28-21 win on Sunday, the Packers have won 12 of the last 13 matchups between these teams.
This isn’t a rivalry, it’s straight up bullying. But for the first time since early in the Lovie Smith era, it feels like things could be competitive for the foreseeable future. The Packers will remain competent as long as Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love are on the payroll, and the Bears may have finally found a coach-quarterback combo with some staying power. At the very least, this feels like a fair matchup in 2025.
Sunday’s game was the first of two meetings in a three-week span with the NFC North title in reach for both teams. If both teams take care of business next week—the Bears get Cleveland at home while Green Bay goes to Denver—that Week 16 game will decide first place in the division with just two weeks remaining. It’s been 12 years since these teams have played a late-season game with real stakes.
The first leg of the 2025 series got off to a crappy start before blossoming into a highly entertaining game. Bears QB Caleb Williams missed on his first six pass attempts (with a few wild overthrows sprinkled in), while Love checked in with one his patented bozo moments.
Nobody throws a bad interception quite like Love. He doesn’t throw a lot of picks, but he always gets his money’s worth when he does. But Love went back to looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league once he got that mistake out of his system. He connected on two deep touchdown throws and finished the game as the league’s leader in average depth per target.
The Bears tried to fluster him with blitzes, but the Packers were prepared and were able to block Chicago’s extra rushers all game. Love was essentially perfect against the blitz on Sunday.
Williams also settled into the game but needed a little more time to do so. He was averaging under 2 yards per dropback going into the half, but lit up the Green Bay secondary in the second half with a number of daring escapes from pressure and comical displays of arm talent.
Williams had a chance to answer with a two-minute drive late. It got off to a promising start, with the second-year quarterback quickly moving the Bears offense into scoring range with two explosive passes. But he threw away the game on fourth-and-1. Williams had Cole Kmet breaking open to the back corner of the end zone but was late on the throw and put way too much air on it, allowing Keisean Nixon to run under it and seal the Green Bay win with a pick.
The football was good and there was enough chippiness to make this one feel like a real rivalry game. Even the coaches seem to have beef, which may have emanated from Ben Johnson telling everyone how much he enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year in Detroit. After their first matchup as head coaches, LaFleur hit Johnson with one of the coldest postgame handshakes you’ll ever see.
I’m not ready to call this a proper rivalry just yet, but I can’t wait to see the sequel to this game in two weeks. It’s been a while since I’ve felt that way about a Bears-Packers game.
Loser: The Daniel Jones Redemption Arc
The Colts’ season has taken a dark turn. Just over a month ago, they were sitting at 7-1 and running away with the AFC South. The offense was putting up historic numbers, quarterback Daniel Jones was garnering MVP buzz, and Shane Steichen was the front-runner for Coach of the Year. The magical season quickly turned into a season from hell. Their lead in the division is gone after a soggy 36-19 loss in Jacksonville on Sunday, and Jones is done for the year after reportedly tearing his Achilles in the first half.
Jones was already playing with a hairline fracture on his other leg, which had severely compromised his ability to move in or out of the pocket, and things were pretty bleak before his right Achilles appeared to pop on a third-and-8 throw in the first quarter. Jones’s first-quarter pick-six staked the Jags to an early lead—and was so bad it may have broken the RedZone broadcast.
It’s difficult to play football when you can hardly move, so it’s not surprising that Jones’s numbers have nosedived since first injuring his lower leg in a Week 10 win over Atlanta. His negative plays (sacks and interceptions) spiked, his accuracy regressed, and he was no longer a factor in the run game. And the Colts haven’t won a game since that day against the Falcons in Berlin. The version of the offense that lit up scoreboards over the first two months was already fading. Indianapolis's season was slipping away; Jones’s new injury just accelerated the process.
The Colts season isn’t mathematically over, of course. At 8-5, they’ve fallen behind both the Jaguars and the Texans and are currently out of the playoff field. They have just a 30 percent shot of making the postseason, per The Athletic’s model. But spiritually, it feels over. With Anthony Richardson still parked on injured reserve after a suffering a broken orbital bone while doing pregame resistance band work back in Week 6—he has yet to be cleared for football acitviities—it will be up to sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard to salvage what’s left of this campaign.
That’ll be a daunting task for the 23-year-old QB, whose first start will come against the same Seahawks defense that put Minnesota’s Max Brosmer through hell in his pro debut last Sunday. That’s followed by a game against the 49ers, a rematch with the Jaguars, and a trip to Houston to play DeMeco Ryans’s terrifying defense to close out the season. Indianapolis is already stuck in a three-game losing streak and is staring at four loseable games without its top two quarterbacks. This league is brutal.
Winner: Catch-Rule Controversy
It had been too long since we’ve had a good catch-rule controversy. A decade ago, it felt like we didn’t go a few weeks without getting to say “I don’t know what a catch is anymore.” Catch-rule haters, I’m thrilled to report that we are back after this apparent Isaiah Likely touchdown was overturned by replay assist.
I don't know what a catch is anymore! Actually, that’s not true. That is very clearly a catch; it just wasn’t ruled as one. The NFL’s vice president of instant replay—which is a real job, apparently—offered an explanation for the decision, citing Likely’s failure to make an “act common to the game” before Pittsburgh cornerback Joey Porter Jr. was able to knock the ball loose.
"The receiver controlled the ball in the air, had his right foot down, then his left foot down. The control is the first aspect of the catch. The second aspect is two feet or a body part inbounds, which he did have," Mark Butterworth said, via the postgame pool report. "Then the third step is an act common to the game and before he could get the third foot down, the ball was ripped out. Therefore, it was an incomplete pass."
Here’s the actual explanation from the rulebook, with bold added for emphasis:
“(a) secures control of the ball in his hands or arms prior to the ball touching the ground; and
(b) touches the ground inbounds with both feet or with any part of his body other than his hands; and
(c) after (a) and (b) have been fulfilled, clearly performs any act common to the game (e.g., extend the ball forward, take an additional step, tuck the ball away and turn upfield, or avoid or ward off an opponent), or he maintains control of the ball long enough to do so.”
It sure sounds like Likely completed the catch! That score would have put Likely’s Ravens up 28-27 over the Steelers with under three minutes remaining in a pivotal division game. Instead, the offense had to trot back onto the field for second down. A few plays later, Lamar Jackson’s fourth-down pass sailed over the head of Mark Andrews. Baltimore got one last shot at a game-winning drive with under a minute remaining but ran out of time when Jackson was sacked at the Pittsburgh 38.
The refereeing decision likely decided the game. The Steelers offense had completely broken down and stood little chance of mounting a game-winning drive of its own. Pittsburgh didn’t have a single successful play in the fourth quarter, per TruMedia. The offense went three-and-out on all three of its possessions and netted just three total yards in the final quarter. There would have been a turnover thrown in there if this Aaron Rodgers turnover hadn’t been overruled after replay determined that he was down before the ball was ripped out of his hands.
Somehow, that was ruled a catch, but Likely taking a couple steps and extending the ball away from the defender after catching the ball in the end zone was not. So let’s say the line again: I don’t know what a catch is anymore! That’s essentially what Ravens coach John Harbaugh said after the game.
"When you're making a catch, you have to survive the ground,” Harbaugh said. “[Rodgers] didn't survive the ground. He's not down by contact, he was catching the ball on the way down with another person, so you have to make a catch there and survive the ground. I don't know why it was ruled the way it was on that one. So, all those things, I'm sure they'll explain to us, but they had plenty of time to look at it, and they're the ones who are the experts on the rules, so that's how it works."
This was a brutal loss for the Ravens to take. They took control of the game after a slow start and deserved a positive result. But there are some positives to take away from the loss. Jackson’s passing is still shaky but he looked quicker than he has in months, which unlocked Baltimore’s sputtering run game. The Ravens ran for 200 yards on 40 carries, with Jackson chipping in with 43 yards and a touchdown. The defense also ironed out some of its issues in the second half after giving up 27 points through three quarters. Baltimore still looks like the best team in the division, and while the schedule is difficult down the stretch, Baltimore is still in control of its playoff destiny, down just one game with another shot at the Steelers coming in Week 18. But that playoff path would have been a lot easier if Likely’s touchdown would have actually counted.
Winner: Josh Allen
I’ll admit it: At around 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, I had talked myself into a Bengals playoff run. They were up two scores over the Bills midway through the fourth quarter in what could be the last game in which they wouldn’t be favored this season. By the time I could pull up Cincinnati’s playoff odds—which were at 14 percent coming into the game, per The Athletic’s prediction model—the wheels had started to fall off. Imagine a Bengals fan who took a bathroom break with the team up 10 with under eight minutes left, and by the time they got back to the couch, Buffalo had a two-score lead of its own. (OK, so that would have been a very long bathroom break, but have you seen the chili they eat?)
It was about a 20-minute sequence in real time, but the Bills needed only four minutes of game time to flip the contest. The rally started with Allen pulling a 40-yard touchdown scramble out of his ass to cut into Cincinnati's lead. Then, Joe Burrow threw a ridiculous pick-six on what was supposed to be a run play as Buffalo took the lead.
Burrow followed that up by throwing another interception that didn’t get past the line of scrimmage on his very next snap. Buffalo quickly extended its lead with a short touchdown pass from Allen to Jackson Hawes a few plays later. Just like that, Cincinnati’s playoff dream was dead, and Allen killed it (with some help from Burrow).
Allen was awesome all game, but the Bills were not. At the same time I was talking myself into a Cincinnati playoff berth, I was checking the standings to see how dire the Bills’ outlook would be at 8-5. With a loss, it was possible Buffalo could have been on the outside looking in by the end of Sunday night. And before flipping their fortunes in the fourth quarter, this Bills team looked dead in the water. The Bengals offense was just walking up and down the field on Buffalo’s defense, as tackling continues to be a problem for Sean McDermott’s team. That obviously has a negative impact on the run defense—which ranks 31st in yards after contact allowed, per TruMedia—but it’s just as problematic for the pass defense. Playing zone and rallying to short passes isn’t a viable defensive strategy when opposing receivers are routinely picking up 5 yards of YAC. The offense is carrying the team, but that group is still too reliant on Allen’s improv skills to create explosives. For about 52 minutes of game time, these issues looked like they’d cost the Bills another game. Then Allen did the familiar Superman routine and it was all fine.
Allen was indomitable in what could be the last-ever true snow game in Buffalo, with the new stadium—and its canopy roof shielding fans (but not necessarily the players) from the elements—opening next season. He completed 22-of-28 passes and averaged 9 yards per attempt. He threw three touchdowns and ran in another. His first touchdown pass came on fourth-and-4 and prevented an early knockout for the Bengals. With Buffalo’s defense getting gashed, the game would have pretty much been over if Allen didn't fit a pass into a keyhole.
This was a big win for Buffalo, but I’m not sure it should change the way we view this flawed team. Besides, with a trip to New England on deck, we’ll learn everything we need to know about this team next Sunday. By this time next week, we’ll either be discussing the Bills as a potential division winner or a team that will be fighting for playoff berth over the final three weeks. Either way, they may need another superhuman effort from Allen.
Loser: Kevin Stefanski’s Two-Point Play Call
I was hopeful that we were past WildcatGate, but the Browns head coach breathed new life into it with this galaxy-brained call on a game-deciding two-point conversion in the final moments of Cleveland’s loss to the Titans.
The idea that Stefanski is going out of his way to sabotage Shedeur Sanders’s career is obviously absurd, but if you’re inclined to believe such a thing, that play call is the smoking gun you’ve been looking for these past few weeks. Sanders had just led two scoring drives to erase a 14-point Tennessee lead in the fourth quarter. He had thrown for 364 yards and three touchdowns in what was easily the best performance of his three starts. And on the play that decided the game, Stefanski told him to take a seat on the bench and watch a damn Wildcat reverse.
As needlessly complicated as the play was, it probably would have worked if running back Quinshon Judkins, who took the direct snap, hadn’t flubbed his lines. The Browns had the numbers and blocking angles for an easy score if Judkins had just pitched the ball.
I’m just assuming the play design called for a pitch there based on how the blocks play out—and Judkins simply experienced a clear “oh shit” moment after passing by Gage Larvadain without pitching it. Stefanski refused to get into the details of the play in his postgame presser, but did offer this: “Obviously, it didn’t go how we thought it would.” Yeah, coach, we know.
To be fair to Stefanski, the Browns had already tried a two-point conversion with Sanders on the field and the results weren’t any better. Sanders and his center botched the snap exchange, forcing the quarterback to just fall on the ball and eat the play. Stefanski made the right decision to go for two in this spot. The analytics are quite clear on that. Unfortunately, though, coaching is a results-based business, and when you’re leading a 3-10 team, nobody wants to hear about good process that doesn’t work out.
