Welcome to The Ringer's Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking—from the most interesting passers, plays, and story lines to some other stuff that caught my eye when I was watching film. In this week’s notebook, we’ll be looking at the case for Cam Ward, why Trevor Lawrence is annoying to root for, Shedeur Sanders’s first NFL start, and more. Let’s talk quarterbacks.
Cam Ward Is the Right Type of Bad
This year’s first draft pick has been bad for most of his rookie season. That’s what the numbers say, at least. Choose your stat: passer rating, EPA, success rate, DVOA, PFF grade … they all say that he’s stunk through the first 11 games of his career. If you’re not grading Ward on a rookie curve—or a “plays for the Titans” curve, which should be equally forgiving—things look a bit grim on paper.
But I’m going to be the annoying film guy who tells you to ignore those numbers and watch this highlight reel of sweet cherry-picked throws.
Look, a two-minute video doesn’t prove that a quarterback is actually good—or negate an awful statistical profile—but there are a lot of plays in there that bad quarterbacks don’t typically make. And that’s true for all of Ward’s film, not just the highlights. The rookie made a number of outrageous throws in the Titans’ 30-24 loss to Seattle on Sunday, but it was this forgettable play that stuck out to me.
Ward’s work starts before the snap. You can see him signaling to his receivers, adjusting the play call based on something he’s seeing from the defense.
Ward knew what coverage Seattle was in and audibled the Titans into a pass concept that put linebacker Drake Thomas in a high-low bind.
Ward also realized that the backside safety, Ty Okada, could be a factor. In this particular coverage, the cornerback to the bottom of the screen is locked in man coverage on the isolated receiver, which allows the safety to help out on any deep in-breaking routes from the other side.
Notice how Ward takes a quick peek at the safety after receiving the snap, just to confirm his pre-snap prediction.
From there, Ward quickly looks to the front side of the play, sees Thomas sitting on the underneath route, and starts his throwing motion, anticipating the window opening up around Chimere Dike.
That’s not an inaccurate throw, either. Ward threw it low intentionally, to protect his receiver from a hit from Okada, who was ranging over from the backside. It’s a high-level play from start to finish. And, again, it’s not a play that you would ever see from a bad rookie passer. You can find subtle flashes like this all over Ward’s tape.
I know I’m repeating myself, but it’s worth saying again: Bad quarterbacks don’t make plays like that, especially at this early stage in their development. The Titans have something here.
Recently, Ward’s numbers have started to trend in the right direction, too. He just posted his best statistical outing against the Seahawks, and that was his second consecutive game with a positive EPA per dropback. The first came against the Texans last week, which means that Ward’s numbers haven’t just improved—they’ve improved as he’s faced two of the league’s stingiest defenses.
So don’t sell your stock in the first pick just yet. This feels very much like what we saw out of Caleb Williams last year. If the Titans can find Ward’s Ben Johnson in the offseason, he may just be able to turn this around.
Trevor Lawrence Is the Wrong Type of Good
While I’m ready to give up on the idea that Lawrence will develop into a top-level passer someday, I’m still clinging to the idea that he’s a good quarterback. That position is becoming increasingly hard to defend, though, as Lawrence keeps stacking up mediocre seasons and maddeningly inconsistent performances like the one we saw on Sunday in Arizona. Every time RedZone cut into that game, I expected to witness either the worst interception I’ve ever seen or a touchdown pass that would fit through a keyhole. How does someone who makes a throw like this every week …
Also do this routinely?
I would ask how Jaguars fans stomach the Trevcoaster every Sunday, but this same fan base lived through the Blake Bortles era and was kind of into it. Lawrence probably seems like a steady hand compared with this:
Bortles produced film like that consistently and still didn’t catch as much shit from Jags fans as Lawrence, an objectively better quarterback. I guess it’s just easier to stomach bad quarterback play when you expect it. Lawrence has shown this franchise what a real quarterback can do—at least in flashes—so it feels like a betrayal whenever he plays like ass.
Life as a Lawrence enthusiast is rough, but in the age of the reclamation project quarterback, there’s still hope. Lawrence isn’t that far from making the leap. And hey, he’s just four months older than Bo Nix! We haven’t even hit his prime yet! Remember this when he’s throwing 35 touchdowns for Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota in two years.
Here’s My Best Shot at a Balanced Take on Shedeur Sanders’s First Start
Please do not run. I promise we’re going to focus on football here. I won’t mention Wildcat-gate. Or Gameball-gate. Or First Team Reps–gate. Or any of the other subplots that have popped up in the eight days—holy shit, it’s been only eight days?—between Sanders making his first pro appearance and winning his first career start.
After revisiting the 21 dropbacks Sanders made in his (proper) NFL debut on Sunday, I still don’t have a strong read on what he could be as a starter. His 52-yard pass to Isaiah Bond showed some legitimately impressive playmaking and offered strong counterevidence to the idea that Sanders doesn’t have an NFL-level arm.
But I also don’t want to oversell it like Myles Garrett did after the game. I get that Garrett has rarely seen throws like that in person—he’s either watching the Browns offense plod around or preventing those types of throws by terrorizing opposing quarterbacks—but most NFL passers can replicate that. Here’s 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers making a similar throw earlier this season. Here’s Zach Wilson making one during his rookie campaign.
The plays Sanders can make out of structure will help him in his career, but his viability as a starter will ultimately come down to his ability to play from the pocket. If Sanders were a more physically gifted runner, he could make it as a dual threat with a limited passing skill set. But that won't work for him when he’s going up against NFL athletes. He has to be a quarterback who can win with timing and accuracy. He’s shown some examples of the latter, but the dude also loves to hold on to the football. There are some quarterbacks who can get away with that—Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, and so on—but Sanders is not one of them. Even when he does get rid of the ball quickly, he has a slight hitch that stems from his habit of patting the ball before he throws. Jets safety Andre Cisco called that out on social media back in April, and it caused a debate about how big of an issue it was. Opinion seemed to be split at the time, but from what I’ve seen on film going back to the preseason, it has caused some problems. Sanders's pass below would probably still be intercepted without the pat, but either way, it gave the defender an extra beat to break on it.
That’s really the only in-pocket rep of consequence from the game tape. Sanders finished with only seven dropbacks that ended in the pocket and resulted in a throw beyond the line of scrimmage. He averaged 4.6 net yards per play, and the Browns lost 7.8 expected points on those attempts, per TruMedia. The plays were mostly checkdowns, with only one going for a first down. Sanders took two deep shots—on the same pass concept—but his receiver was covered over the top on both plays and gave up on the route, not expecting Sanders to just launch the ball in his direction.
Sanders made his two best plays outside the pocket. The big throw to Bond and another deep pass to Jerry Jeudy, who promptly fumbled the ball away while trying to juke a defender in the open field. But there were also some ugly out-of-pocket reps, including these two misses while Sanders rolled out to his left.
On one play, Sanders looked like a first-round prospect. On the other 20, he looked like a mid-round pick who was making his first start. And overall, he was fine, considering the situation. I get that the Raiders are awful, but so are the Browns! No matter the opponent, leading your team to a win in your first start is an objectively cool achievement that he was right to bask in afterward.
Defensive Coordinators, Stop Blitzing Jordan Love
Jordan Love passed the Brian Flores stress test on Sunday. The Packers quarterback has been cooking blitzes all season, but Minnesota’s defense presents a unique challenge for quarterbacks. Unsurprisingly, the Vikings defensive coordinator blitzed Love on 56 percent of his dropbacks in Green Bay’s 23-6 win. That’s a typical Flores game, but it was a season high for Love, per Next Gen Stats. And the blitzes worked as designed, quickly breaking down the pass protection and pressing Love into making quick decisions. He was pressured on nearly half of his dropbacks and faced quick pressure (under 2.5 seconds) 21.7 percent of the time. According to Next Gen Stats, that’s the highest rate of quick pressure he has faced since he became Green Bay’s full-time starter in 2023.
Flores got what he wanted with the quick pressure, but Love was unfazed by all the blitzing. He averaged more than 7 yards per dropback with a 72.7 percent success rate when the Vikings sent an extra pass rusher. That’s what he’s done all season. After taking down the NFL’s preeminent blitzers in Week 12, Love now leads the league in dropback EPA against the blitz. I don’t think that’s a fluke, either. Love’s skill set is ideal for beating extra heat. He’s got a Kobe-like fadeaway that allows him to create just enough space to get a throw off while not sacrificing accuracy.
On the play above, Love saw the pressure coming off the right edge and slid his line that way to pick it up. Green Bay still botched the protection, forcing Love to make a quick reaction play against an unblocked pass rusher. That was a major theme of the game: Love beating an effective blitz with a quick anticipatory throw. Here he makes a fadeaway throw right as Christian Watson is coming out of his break, and he gets bonus points for doing so from the opposite hash:
This is a shorter throw but one that required even more anticipation after his running back whiffed on his block, giving Jalen Redmond a direct path to the quarterback.
Love’s average time to throw against Minnesota’s blitzes was 2.18 seconds. That’s exceptionally quick against a defense that’s known for disrupting a quarterback’s process. If Flores’s blitzing couldn’t fluster Love, what chance do these other defensive coordinators have?
Guess Where He Threw It: J.J. McCarthy Edition
The internet’s favorite all-22 screenshot-based game is back by popular demand! This time, we’re checking in on J.J. McCarthy in the game that might have been the beginning of the end for “Nine” in Minnesota. Here’s the moment, on a third-and-9 in the first quarter of Sunday’s loss in Green Bay, where McCarthy finished his drop and took his first hitch.
Where do you think he threw it? Your options are:
- Justin Jefferson, the team’s star receiver, who’s running into open grass away from two defenders with their hips pointing in the opposite direction
- Jordan Addison, on the backside dig route
- Jalen Nailor, running the clear out route, although he’s not really in the progression here
- T.J. Hockenson, underneath and well short of the sticks, with a linebacker nearby who’s ready to de-cleat him
- A spike directly into the dirt. Before you dismiss this as an option, consider that McCarthy’s passer rating for the game would have been higher if he had just done this every snap instead of trying to complete passes.
It was dealer’s choice for McCarthy here. A throw to Jefferson would’ve had to go into a tight window, but it’s a pass most quarterbacks could make with the margin for error a star wideout provides. Addison would have been the best option, but McCarthy turned that down. Nailor is really only an option when the defense botches the coverage, which kind of happens here. And Hockenson is the worst choice, so, of course, that’s the one McCarthy takes.
McCarthy’s game is a mess right now. As I covered last week, he’s not throwing the ball well. He’s also not seeing the field well, or handling pressure well, or protecting himself well, or really doing anything well. Now that he’s landed in concussion protocol, McCarthy may finally get a much-needed break from the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve seen the last of the second-year pro this season. He’s been unplayable so far, and Sunday’s game may have been his worst outing yet. It benefits nobody to keep trotting him out there.
The Next Gen Stats Passing Map Mostly Likely to Start a QB Controversy
Don’t say I didn’t warn you! Brock Purdy did not look right in his return against the Cardinals last week. And while Arizona failed to punish his fluttering throws into traffic, the Panthers defense did not on Monday night. Purdy was picked off three times in the first half, which may have been worthy of a benching if Carolina’s offense had been capable of cashing in on those mistakes. Kyle Shanahan didn’t bench Purdy, but he did seem to lose trust in his $265 million quarterback. I’ve circled all of the dots below that represent Purdy’s passes in the second half.
Per TruMedia, Purdy didn’t attempt a single pass over 8 air yards over the final two quarters of the game. That was for the best, based on his full-season results. So far this year, he’s thrown seven interceptions on throws over 8 air yards. Only four quarterbacks have thrown more. Mac Jones has thrown three in 59 more attempts.
We’re still a couple of truly dreadful performances away from a serious QB controversy in San Francisco, but with the way Purdy looks on downfield throws right now, that’s in the range of possible outcomes this season.
The Best Throw I Saw This Week
I can’t get over the audacity of this throw by Drake Maye up the pipe against a Cover 2 defense.
It’s a perfect throw, and if it were off by even a yard, it probably would've been picked off.
The Worst Throw I Saw This Week
There may have been worse throws this week, but I really needed to call out Kirk Cousins’s performative effort to stop this pick-six after he threw a quick slant into double coverage.
Cousins is sprinting back toward the goal line, but he never attempts to gain ground on the return man. Instead, he plays patty-cake with Danny Stutsman as he runs parallel to the ballcarrier. That doesn’t look like a $45 million effort, Kirk.
