Thanksgiving is a beautiful holiday in my family: Loved ones gather, gratitude fills the air, the food is sublime, and I can’t even take my shoes off before being asked whom I bet on in the Lions game. The football schedulers have blessed fans with what feels like one of the most enticing slates I’ve ever seen. The Packers and Lions are the two betting favorites to win the NFC North, but they’re both in danger of falling out of playoff contention with a loss. The resurgent Cowboys and embattled Chiefs should produce plenty of drama and offense. Add in a classic AFC North rivalry match featuring the return of Joe Burrow, and it’s an elite lineup.
Given how uncompetitive many of the prime-time games have been recently, we’re due for some island-game drama. Week 13 gives us six different stand-alone slots between Thanksgiving Day, a Friday afternoon special, and Sunday and Monday Night Football.
Because of the schedule, we’re going to do things a little differently this week and arrange this column chronologically. So, here are my thoughts on the Week 13 slate, with my favorite five picks listed at the end. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning.)
Thanksgiving Day Football
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (–2.5)
The Lions have not been throwing the ball downfield much at all this year. Jared Goff is second in the league in average time to throw, meaning he dispenses the ball quickly, and the Lions have the second-lowest average depth of target.
The Lions thrive on generating explosive plays from yards after the catch on shorter throws, but that’ll be really difficult to pull off against Green Bay. The Packers play a lot of zone, their defense limits big-time plays as well as any other unit, and they tackle well. Detroit will have to be methodical to score, and that’s one area where the drop-off in its offensive efficiency from last season to this year is most pronounced. The Lions finished last season first in offensive success rate, but they’ve been trending downward this year and are now 19th since Week 6. Green Bay, despite all of the injuries to its offensive skill group, is first in the same time span.
The market opened at Packers +3, and even though the line is now down to Packers +2.5, they are one of my favorites in Week 13.
Verdict: Bet Packers +2.5 (–110)
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
Dallas is a really difficult team to project right now because its defense has posted back-to-back quality games after being one of the league’s worst units through the first nine games of the year. Its pass rush completely dominated an overmatched Raiders offensive line two weeks ago, and then it shut out a mercurial Eagles offense in the second half of Sunday’s shocking comeback. That win was enough to move the market from Dallas +4 on the look-ahead lines to +3.5 on Tuesday. And that’s enough for me to invest in Kansas City here.
The Chiefs offense was forced to be super methodical on Sunday against the Colts, and Patrick Mahomes ascended into superhuman mode in the fourth quarter with their season on the line. There’s still plenty to not like about the Chiefs—their missing pass rush and sloppy miscues, to name a few—but the offense’s inevitability really impressed me against a really good Colts secondary.
The Cowboys secondary remains a very flawed unit, and while they sat in zones and slowed down the Eagles, that’s not a particularly notable achievement given the state of the Philly offense right now. Jalen Hurts had a very efficient performance, but the Eagles wasted too many downs with hopeless runs into the line. Kansas City isn’t going to make the same mistake, and it’ll throw the ball considerably more often. Mahomes is elite at carving up zone defenses and has the patience to expose the holes in the secondary.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs –3.5 (–110)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (–7)
The Ravens offense hasn’t been particularly productive since Lamar Jackson returned from an injury four weeks ago. Baltimore has won four consecutive games anyway because it played some pretty bad teams, and now it has pulled into a tie for first place in the AFC North. Jackson is running less, and the offense isn’t quite in sync, but I can think of no better get-right spot than playing the Bengals defense on a short week.
Cincinnati hasn’t been able to cover tight ends all year long. Only the Seahawks and Panthers have allowed more EPA to tight ends, and Baltimore has two—Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews—that profile to cook the Bengals over the middle of the field repeatedly. Because of their explosive run game, the Ravens match up better with this generationally bad Cincinnati defense than maybe any other team in the NFL.
With Joe Burrow ruled in, I expect the market to move this line to Ravens –6.5. But what version of Burrow are we getting? He won’t have Tee Higgins for this game, and we’ve seen him be rusty after a long injury layoff before. I doubt the Bengals offense will snap back to the level you’d expect from a Burrow-led group. No bet for me on this one yet, but if it goes as I’m expecting between now and Thursday, the Ravens –6.5 will be a bet for me.
Verdict: Wait to bet Ravens at a better number
Black Friday Football
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (–7)
It’s easy to look at basically any underlying team quality metric and acknowledge that Chicago isn’t as good as its 8-3 record would suggest. But the betting markets are also plenty aware of this, as evidenced by the “capable of only one good half of offense per week” Eagles laying seven points at home on Black Friday.
Action Network’s “Luck Rankings” see the Bears and Eagles as the league’s two most fortunate teams this year. The Eagles offense has been unsustainably good in the red zone while also being stunningly bad at methodically moving the ball up and down the field. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense is super turnover reliant. The Bears are 22nd in EPA per play allowed, but if you remove turnovers from the sample, they fall to 31st.
The matchup of Eagles offense vs. Bears defense is the real shoulder-shrug duel of the week because both units are so unpredictable and volatile. I think Chicago will struggle to move the ball consistently in this game, as this is the first truly elite defense it’s played this year.
Verdict: Lean Bears team total under 18.5 (–110)
NFL Sunday
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (–4.5)
One of the biggest narratives out of Week 12 is that the AFC South is now wide open after the Texans have won three in a row and the Colts have lost two of their last three; the Jaguars now find themselves just one game out of first place. However, after three outdoor games away from Indianapolis, the Colts return home to their roofed stadium and are worth a look as a buy-low option.
There’s a massive difference between the quality of these two offenses in the red zone, and that’ll almost certainly matter if Houston is trading threes for the Colts’ sevens.
Indianapolis vs. Houston Red Zone Efficiency
This is still the same Texans team that at one point trailed Jacksonville 29-10 in the fourth quarter in Week 10, needed a last-second field goal to beat Tennessee in Week 11, and managed 35 total yards in the second half at home against Buffalo in Week 12. The Texans won all of those games, but they weren’t pretty. On the defensive side, Houston is elite by almost every single metric, but it does occasionally overcommit and allow gaps for explosive runs. If the Texans closed as 5.5-point favorites at home vs. Buffalo last week, you’re making some big adjustments to have the Colts as a shorter favorite at home. I think it’s a market overreaction, and I am buying into the Colts again.
Verdict: Bet Colts –4.5 (–108)
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
My colleague Steven Ruiz picked up on Brock Purdy’s concerning throws before he went out and threw three terrible interceptions on Monday Night Football. Now the 49ers offense trudges across the country to Cleveland on a short week, with 20 mph winds forecasted. Purdy had major issues last time he played in Cleveland in high wind, and Ruiz also wrote about how the 49ers stopped throwing downfield in the second half against Carolina after Kyle Shanahan appeared to realize that Purdy was a bit compromised as a passer.
The 49ers offense remains dependent on the run game, but Cleveland’s defensive front is as good as any in the league. They mostly bottled up Derrick Henry in both meetings with him this year and also slowed down Green Bay and Detroit (mostly). The Browns will continue to be extremely passive with Shedeur Sanders, who basically didn’t throw any intermediate routes or anything significant over the middle of the field last Sunday.
Cleveland will take a couple of deep shots, run the ball, and try to mostly throw behind the line of scrimmage. All of that should limit Sanders’s turnover risk and make this a very low-scoring game.
Verdict: Bet under 38.5 (–120)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+6.5)
Dare I say the Titans have some (against-the-spread) life? Tennessee has covered three straight games! Cam Ward arguably had his best game as a pro on Sunday against the Seahawks defense. Things are now relatively less embarrassing for the Titans, who are no longer power rated by betting odds as the worst team in the NFL. (Sorry Jets fans).
We saw the Titans put together a feisty performance in a home divisional game two weeks ago. The Titans lost to the Texans but covered the spread. When it comes to facing the Jags, you never know whether Trevor Lawrence will have multiple turnovers and keep the game competitive. Because of a weird scheduling quirk, the Titans haven’t played away from home at any point in November.
If this gets to Titans +7, I’ll bet them. At 6.5, it’s just a lean for me.
Verdict: Lean Titans +6.5 (–110)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+2.5)
The Falcons tapped into some real “Nobody believes in us” energy with their wire-to-wire win against the Saints last week. With that being said, Kirk Cousins still threw a terrible pick-six and finished with a negative EPA per play. The Falcons won that game because New Orleans was absolutely diabolical in goal-scoring situations with red zone blunders and field goal misses.
It’s wild to compare the closing lines from last week and this week. Since the Saints closed –2 at home last week, this line is basically saying that the Saints are four points better than the Jets. That’s a big leap in price.
The only side I could bet is the Jets at home, but it’s just a lean for me. If it did get to Jets +3, I’d hop in.
Verdict: Lean Jets +2.5 (–110)
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–3)
The Buccaneers haven’t yet ruled out Baker Mayfield (left shoulder) for this game, but I have ruled out betting this game. The Cardinals have lost so many close games this year—six by four points or fewer—and the Buccaneers have pulled out so many close games late. This match is destined to come down to a special teams play, a last-minute drive, or some version of Kedon Slovis or Teddy Bridgewater off the bench. I’ll pass.
Verdict: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (–5.5)
I was briefly invested in the Tyler Shough business, but I don’t have the courage for a third consecutive Saints bet.
If you want to get really creative, I do think there’s an avenue for Shough to have success passing the ball against the Dolphins secondary. Shough has played three of the better pass defenses in the NFL so far in 2025, and the Dolphins represent a significant step down in class. New Orleans has the lowest explosive play rate in the NFL, but it has ticked up since Shough became the starter.
Verdict: Pass, but consider Shough passing props
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Emmanuel Forbes has established himself as one of the league’s better corners in the last month, and that has propelled the Rams defense to another level. There really hasn’t ever been doubt about the quality of the Los Angeles offense, especially now that Sean McVay has found a plan that works so well in the red zone. The Rams offense is humming—fifth best red zone efficiency and third in points per drive. And now it’s paired with a championship level pass rush and a solid coverage unit on the back end.
The first key to handicapping any Carolina game is trying to establish how much the Panthers will be able to effectively run the ball. If they can’t, it’s a very limited offense overall. The Rams defense ranks fifth in EPA per rush allowed, which could quickly render the Panthers offense into a dropback passing game.
The market opened this game at Rams -9.5, which I would bet if it were available. However, now that this game has moved through the key number of 10, I think you’re paying too much of a premium to try to bet the Rams here.
Verdict: Lean Rams -10.5 but price is too high
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (–10.5)
The market moved from Seattle –9.5 to –10.5 on Tuesday. It’s hard to be worse than J.J. McCarthy, but it’s also hard to have a really confident opinion on Max Brosmer, who will play in place of McCarthy on Sunday.
Everyone who writes about the NFL will talk about the Vikings’ quarterback situation, so allow me to be different here. Brian Flores’s defense hasn’t been particularly good for more than a month now. Since Week 7, the Vikings rank 27th in dropback EPA allowed. Jordan Love tore up the Minnesota blitz last week, and the Seahawks rank second (behind only the Packers) in EPA against the blitz this season.
If you don’t like Brosmer, bet on Seattle alternate spreads and chase the bigger payouts.
Verdict: Bet Seattle alternate spreads
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (–9.5)
Last time we saw the Chargers, before their Week 12 bye, Jacksonville ran the ball all over them and completely dominated the game. The Raiders aren’t at risk of doing the same to Los Angeles because their offensive line is legitimately unplayable. It has completely stunted their offense in the past three games and resulted in sacks, turnovers, and hilarious TikToks mocking their blocking ineptitude. The Raiders have scored 33 points and taken 20 sacks in the last three weeks.
The firing of Chip Kelly is unlikely to lead to a real difference in the blocking schemes or offensive performances in the coming weeks.
As much as I doubt the Raiders’ ability to block the Chargers, you could argue the Chargers will have similar issues. Both defenses are built to take away explosive plays, and Justin Herbert must get the ball out extremely quickly to have a functioning offense. I am surprised this total is above the key number of 41, and I suspect it will close lower than that.
Verdict: Bet under 41.5 points (–110)
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
The Steelers defense is heavily reliant on generating pressure to cover for deficiencies on the back end. We’ve seen games where their defensive line wins the battle at the line of scrimmage and they’re able to wreck opposing offenses, like when they turned over the Colts six times. Buffalo’s offensive line is traditionally excellent, but the unit enters this game with some injuries, as right tackle Spencer Brown is expected to miss this game.
On Pittsburgh’s offense, Aaron Rodgers is still questionable to play. Mason Rudolph was able to execute some drives and get the ball out quickly last week, but it was definitely a downgrade from the Rodgers offense.
This one is a wait-and-see until we get more clarity on Rodgers.
Verdict: Pass
Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders (+6.5)
It’s a real disappointment that this game didn’t get flexed out of prime time given the state of the Commanders, who will again be without Jayden Daniels due to an injury. I wish I had more interesting things to say about this game because it’s a Sunday night stand-alone … so how about a trend? Games tend to be lower-scoring when both teams have extra rest following a bye. Teams coming off the bye with a total over 40 are 29-17-1 (63 percent) to the under, per Brandon Anderson at Action Network.
There’s a point to be made that given the current state of Bo Nix and the Broncos offense, they still can’t make these totals low enough. Nix isn’t able to consistently sustain offense. Only Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, and J.J. McCarthy have lower success rates than Nix this season. Once the Broncos do eventually get a lead, the Denver defense has been incredible at limiting explosive plays. That means plenty of long, methodical Commanders drives that involve lots of running. It’s not a great recipe for points.
Verdict: Bet under 43.5 (–110)
Monday Night Football
New York Giants at New England Patriots (–7.5)
The left side of New England’s offensive line is out for this matchup, and that could present problems for the Patriots as they try to win this game by margin. The Giants don’t do much well on defense, but they can get quick pressure on the quarterback. If the Giants are able to disrupt Drake Maye in the pocket, they could limit the explosiveness of the Patriots’ passing offense. New England’s offense lives on Maye’s elite downfield passing, but it isn’t all that efficient on a down-to-down basis because the running game remains inconsistent. Any functional running offense will find success against the Giants, but the shorthanded Patriots may not have that.
The injuries also seemed to hamper New England’s ability to operate on the goal line on Sunday in Cincinnati, where the offense was a disaster and nearly cost them the win.
Verdict: Bet Giants +7.5 (–115)
The Favorite Five
Packers +2.5
Giants +7.5
Niners-Browns under 38.5
Chiefs –3.5
Chargers-Raiders under 41.5
Other Bets
Waiting for Ravens –6.5
Broncos-Commanders under 43.5
Colts –4.5
