In Week 9, the NFL finally had its “Joker” week. The underdogs injected a little anarchy into our lives; they upset the established NFL order. The Panthers stunned the Packers as 13.5-point underdogs at Lambeau. The Vikings took down Detroit as 9.5-point underdogs. The Steelers stopped the Colts’ dominant offensive run, and the Bills toppled the Chiefs, who were the betting market’s number one team.
While most media outlets publish their own version of power rankings, including The Ringer, I always think it’s interesting to see how the betting market rates each of the league’s top contenders.
Entering Week 10, per Inpredictable, these are the top five:
- Kansas City
- Detroit
- L.A. Rams
- Green Bay
- Buffalo
The top-ranked Chiefs have a bye in Week 10, as do the Bengals, Cowboys, and Titans. That leaves us with 14 games, including the return of Sunday morning international football as the Falcons face the Colts in Berlin.
Here are my thoughts on the Week 10 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through nine weeks, this column is 37-37 overall and 20-25 on the Favorite Five.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (–2.5)
One week after everyone crowned the Packers as the NFC’s top team following a dominant prime-time win at Pittsburgh, the general consensus has soured on Green Bay after it no-showed at home against the Panthers. The Packers struggled in the red zone and had turnover problems in the game, but it’s not like they didn’t consistently move the ball. After all, the Packers didn't even punt.
I’ve maintained all year that the Packers are an elite team and the best all-around squad in the NFC, so I’m going to bet them as a 2.5-point favorite at home on Monday. Do the Packers have some silliness in them that leads to puzzling results against inferior foes? Certainly. Will Green Bay miss Tucker Kraft, who is out for the season with a torn ACL? Definitely. But all around, the Packers have a ceiling as high as any team in the league. They’re also not the only offense in this game that has been inconsistent. The Eagles offense has the third-highest three-and-out rate in the NFL. They had their best all-around game on offense against the Giants before the bye week, but we’ve seen the Giants defense totally crater in recent weeks due to injuries and run defense problems.
Through eight games played for both, Green Bay has the more reliable offense, and its defense is designed to force teams to be extremely methodical; it allows big plays at the second-lowest rate in the league. Plus, the Eagles are ranked ninth in EPA per drive, while the Packers are sitting at fourth.
These two teams are close on a talent level, but for me, the Packers have a more trusted offensive scheme—and they’re at home.
Verdict: Bet Packers –2.5 (–110)
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (+4.5)
J.J. McCarthy had a stellar start to last week’s game against the Lions, with two consecutive opening touchdown drives, and then he made the critical third-down throw to ice the game late in the fourth quarter. Other than that, McCarthy’s advanced box score is littered with red flags. Even though the Vikings pulled off an incredible upset win to save their season, I remain quite skeptical of the offense under his leadership.
McCarthy still finished the game with a negative EPA per play because of an interception and multiple costly sacks. Through three NFL starts, McCarthy has an alarming 17.5 percent sack rate, which is nearly 5 percentage points more than every other quarterback with at least 40 pass attempts this year. Interestingly enough, Lamar Jackson has the second-highest sack rate.
The Ravens defense remains vulnerable to good running attacks, but the Vikings aren’t really a consistently efficient running team. Minnesota is right around league average in success rate and 21st in EPA per rush. Given the number of expected negative plays and the inconsistent rushing game, I think this will be a difficult scoring environment for Minnesota.
After all, its 27-point outburst last Sunday was driven heavily by special teams and turnovers. Minnesota started three of its five scoring drives (and two of its three touchdown drives) in Detroit territory. The Ravens defense enters Sunday with extra rest and will be able to limit the Vikings offense.
I’m betting the Vikings team total under 22.5 and would consider betting the full game under 49.5 and Ravens –4.5.
Verdict: Bet Vikings team total under 22.5 (–110)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (–6.5)
The Seahawks’ play-action passing offense completely shredded a decimated Washington defense on the road on Sunday Night Football, and now everyone has jumped on the Seattle bandwagon. The Seattle defense is absolutely Super Bowl–contender ready, and the offense is a well-schemed unit that is playing well above its general talent level. Even though I came into the season quite bullish on the Seahawks, I draw the line at calling them roughly even with the truly top-tier NFC contenders like the Rams, Eagles, and Packers.
The DVOA metrics would tell you that Seattle is actually the best team in the NFL, but there is some noise in those, too. They haven’t had to play from behind very often, and that has made life easier for Sam Darnold. Defenses are matching heavy personnel with the Seattle offense to stop the run, and that’s leaving opponents exposed to big plays. Seattle is second in the NFL in explosive play rate. Jonathan Gannon’s defense is unlikely to make the same mistake. His defense plays light as a feature, and it’s built to prevent high-yardage plays. While the Cardinals have had a ton of secondary injuries, the return of Garrett Williams definitely helped the secondary on Monday night, and standout rookie corner Will Johnson didn’t play when these two teams met in Week 4.
I have bet on the Seahawks and recommended them in this column in five of the eight games they’ve played, but we’re now paying a premium to back the Hawks. No bet for me on the side, and I’d lean Cardinals if the line got to Seattle –7. Remember: The Cardinals still haven’t lost a game by more than four points this season.
Arizona had a ton of third-down success on Monday night against Dallas, but I’m at the point where I’m basically ignoring data against the Cowboys and Bengals defenses. The Cardinals will struggle to create big plays against the Seahawks, and this divisional rematch will be lower-scoring than the market suggests.
Verdict: Bet under 45.5 (–110)
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (+2.5)
The Jets were –1.5 until they decided to send Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams to the Colts and Cowboys, respectively, in a major trade deadline sell-off. The market flipped to Cleveland as a road favorite, which is certainly bold given what we’ve seen from Dillon Gabriel thus far in his short NFL career. Even in Gabriel’s lone win in Week 8 against the Dolphins, the Browns had fewer than 200 yards of offense and scored most of their points thanks to Tua Tagovailoa turnovers.
AccuWeather is reporting a potential for rain and wind gusts up to 35 mph for this game on Sunday, which will only further neuter two incredibly troubled passing offenses.
The Jets offense is effectively broken if you’re able to slow down its rushing attack and force it into clear passing situations. The Bengals’ historically bad defense wasn’t able to do that two weeks ago, but I suspect the Jets will look a lot more like they did against Carolina and Denver. As I wrote above, I’m throwing out data from any Bengals games when it comes to judging the quality of their opponent’s offense.
This is also a rare situation where both teams are coming off the bye. When teams play each other in this situation, the under is 23-13-1 since 2015, per Action Network. Extra rest certainly seems to help the defenses. Hopefully that holds up when one of the defenses just traded two of its best players.
Assuming this game is close, neither team will be incentivized to take much risk.
Verdict: Bet under 37.5 points (–105)
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders (+8.5)
The Lions have won and covered 12 consecutive games coming off a loss with Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. It’s very easy to make the case for the Lions to bounce back and throttle a shorthanded Commanders defense. But you’re also paying a major premium from a numbers perspective to do so. And the Lions offense has been legitimately mediocre for a month now.
Since the Lions’ demolition of an undermanned Baltimore defense on Monday Night Football in Week 3, their offense has not clicked. Detroit is 21st in success rate since Week 5 and 18th in EPA per drive. They struggled with blitz pickups badly against Minnesota on Sunday. The offensive line is significantly worse than last year, and Taylor Decker is questionable to play because of injury.
I don’t know what the Commanders defense really has left, given all the injuries. Most of the defensive line remains out, and you saw the effects of that on Sunday night when Seattle scored 31 first-half points. It might be approaching Bengals and Cowboys levels of bad.
We have seen the Commanders offense be just fine with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, but injuries to Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey make Mariota’s job a whole lot more difficult. This is an ugly bet with a point total this high, but I have to hold my nose and take the Commanders. If the Commanders were +3 at home against the Seahawks last week, even an adjustment for Mariota shouldn’t get this line all the way to 8.5 at home against the Lions this week.
Verdict: Bet Commanders +8.5 (–115)
Thursday Night Football
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (–9.5)
It’s a nightmare spot for the Raiders after they had to play a full 10 minutes into overtime on Sunday in a heartbreaking 30-29 loss to the Jaguars. Now they’re going on the road and to a higher altitude. With that being said, we once again find ourselves in a position where the Broncos’ inconsistent offense is laying a big spread of at least a touchdown (Denver couldn’t cover similar spreads against the Jets and Giants).
How can you trust the Denver offense to produce margin when it has been able to do that only twice this season, in games against the generationally bad Cowboys and Bengals defenses? Bo Nix is 33rd out of 36 quarterbacks in offensive success rate this season, ahead of only Cam Ward, Russell Wilson, and Dillon Gabriel. The Raiders defense under coordinator Patrick Graham will force Denver to be methodical, and that’s where the low success rates become a problem.
Maybe Nix will dial up some more fourth-quarter magic, but if he needs that, it probably means the Raiders are in an excellent position to cover the spread in this game anyway.
Las Vegas was much more competitive last week coming out of the bye, and it’s gotten healthier. Now I’m ready to get hurt again by backing the Raiders (and thus another terrible team) on Thursday Night Football. I’ll wait to see if this line gets to +10 closer to kickoff.
Verdict: Lean Raiders +9.5, but wait to see if +10 appears before kickoff (–105)
The Rest of the Slate
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts (–6.5, in Berlin)
The Colts acquired Sauce Gardner from the Jets ahead of a matchup with one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Drake London. London single-handedly willed the Falcons back into the Patriots game last week, even though Atlanta ultimately came up short after missing a potentially game-tying extra point.
It was impressive to watch just how much havoc the Falcons wreaked against Drake Maye last week. They were able to turn him over twice and sack him six times. It makes you wonder how much they’ll be able to do the same to Daniel Jones in Berlin. We saw Jones have his first bad game of the season in Pittsburgh after an excellent pass rush overwhelmed a previously dominant Colts offensive line.
The Falcons’ defensive line is more equipped to rush the passer than to stop the run, which actually isn’t a bad matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis likes to throw to set up the run, not the other way around. My numbers say I lean toward Atlanta, but I’ll pass here on the international special.
Verdict: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (–1.5)
I’ve had a mediocre NFL betting season, but there are no teams I’ve had a better read on than the Houston Texans. And now that Davis Mills has been named the starter, I see no reason to go away from my strategy of betting the under in the Texans game. Houston’s total inability to run the ball has made it a league-worst disaster in the red zone. The Texans actually moved the ball quite well at home against Denver last week, but it didn’t matter because they had to keep settling for field goals. Jacksonville’s defense is not good, but it is pretty decent at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That has been the kryptonite of the Texans offense.
On the other side of this matchup, Jacksonville massively struggled to move the ball in these teams’ first meeting of the season, and I actually think the market is still underrating the Texans defense. They’ve had poor red zone defense numbers, which suggest there’s positive regression coming for them. They’re no. 1 in almost every other defensive metric. Points will be at a premium in this divisional rematch.
Verdict: Bet under 37.5 (–110)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (–3.5)
When I first glanced at the total for this game, it didn’t make any sense. How could a total with these two awful defenses be just 47.5? Then I checked the weather. After all, it is Chicago in November. There is the potential for precipitation in the forecast, but also temperatures in the 30s and winds pushing 20 mph. That will make it difficult to sustain much of a passing offense.
I think these conditions are more of a problem for the Giants, who are more reliant on downfield passing to move the ball. Chicago’s run offense has an excellent matchup on paper against the sieve known as the Giants run defense. The Bears have certainly benefited from playing some bad defenses in the last month, and the Giants are right there with the rest.
There’s a time to fade Chicago approaching, but that time is not now.
Verdict: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (–5.5)
Tyler Shough wasn’t as bad as I thought he might be in his NFL debut on the road against an excellent Rams defense. It didn’t help that the Saints got absolutely nothing from the run game and forced him into difficult passing downs. It also didn't help that the Saints very rarely had the ball in this game, with just 16 minutes of possession, and they never had good field position because the defense couldn’t do anything to stop the Rams.
The Rams were elite at generating pressure; Shough will have a much easier time in this matchup because the Panthers won’t be able to replicate that with their 32nd-ranked pass rush by pressure rate.
One of the keys to betting on the NFL successfully is being able to identify when to buy low and sell high on a team. I can think of no more classic signal than the MeowMix podcast. The hosts of the Panthers-focused show decided to stop recording episodes following a blowout loss to the Patriots in Week 4, saying they were tired of pouring time and energy into an uncompetitive team. That was the ultimate buy-low signal. The Panthers then won four out of five. Then the podcast tried to make its return following an upset win at Green Bay. That’s the sell signal.
Carolina’s offense remains inconsistent at best and overly reliant on generating explosive run plays to score. Betting on Shough isn’t something I imagined I would be doing, but these two teams aren’t all that different to warrant a spread of more than five.
Verdict: Bet Saints +5.5 (–110)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+9.5)
I am not going to bet on the Dolphins for a second straight week as a huge underdog, and I’m definitely not going to do it in this matchup, where Sean McDermott has traditionally fared well and Tagovailoa is always good for a costly turnover. It’s the easiest pass on the board, and this game will not make my multiview on Sunday.
Verdict: Pass
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–2.5)
This is the most interesting game of the weekend because we’re still uncertain about the true quality of these two teams. The Bucs may be coming off a bye, but neither Chris Godwin nor Bucky Irving was at practice on Wednesday. The Tampa Bay skill group is quite limited right now, and we saw very mediocre offensive performances in the two games before the bye, against the Lions and Saints. Baker Mayfield’s offense hadn’t had a bad game all year before those two consecutive stinkers. I don’t think the bye week will magically fix their issues running the ball, and it doesn’t seem like the skill position players will be anywhere close to full strength.
These are two elite run defenses and subpar run offenses, which means this game will almost certainly come down to which quarterback can be more efficient through the air. As good as Drake Maye has been throwing the ball down the field and against the blitz, the absence of Kayshon Boutte really limits the explosiveness of the Patriots offense. Add in that Maye is taking a ton of sacks, and you can make a convincing case that both of these offenses will struggle to be efficient. However, if both teams abandon the run and chase explosives, both are capable of hitting big plays—and both defenses are susceptible to downfield passing. If Tampa Bay gets Irving and Godwin back they should be –3 here, and I’d also look to bet the over—but no strong opinion for me on either side or total of this game.
Verdict: Pass, consider Bucs and over with better injury news
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)
No matter how highly you rate the Rams, you have to really, really dislike this version of the 49ers to justify their being a full 4.5-point underdog at home. I’ve been lower than the market on the 49ers and bet against them each of the last two weeks, and I still can’t get to this price where Los Angeles is laying more than 3.5. I have too much respect for Kyle Shanahan’s offense to produce points.
With that being said, it’s not clear how the 49ers defense gets any stops in this game, either. Even if you look back to these teams’ first meeting on Thursday Night Football this season, the only times the Rams didn't score was when they made foolish or flukey plays. The Rams scored 23 points in that game despite a missed field goal and two fumbles deep inside 49ers territory.
San Francisco lost rookie Mykel Williams for the season to a torn ACL against the Giants, adding to the 49ers’ ridiculous number of injuries. The underdog has fared very well in this head-to-head, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game once again comes down to a late field goal.
Verdict: Lean 49ers +4.5 (–110)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (–3)
The big mismatch in this game is the Chargers’ makeshift offensive line against the pedigreed Pittsburgh defensive line. Will the Steelers totally wreck what the Chargers want to do offensively? As much as the Pittsburgh defense overall is a flawed unit, the D-line can still dominate games. And if they ruined the Colts offensive line last week, they can certainly replicate that performance against the Chargers. Now without both starting tackles after Joe Alt suffered a season-ending injury, the Chargers traded for Saints offensive tackle Trevor Penning. He’s a solid stopgap, but not enough to save this troubled unit.
While the Pittsburgh defense forced six turnovers last week, I was rather disappointed in the effort from the Steelers offense. The Colts defense is quite gettable, but the Steelers weren’t able to consistently sustain drives. Most of their points came from short field positions. I definitely can’t lay the three with the Chargers, but I’m also not dying to take the points with the Pittsburgh offense, either. If this line moved off the key number of three, I’d have more of an opinion.
Verdict: Pass
The Favorite Five
Packers –2.5
Commanders +8.5
Vikings team total under 22.5
Browns-Jets under 37.5
Cardinals-Seahawks under 45.5
Other Bets
Saints +5.5
Jaguars-Texans under 37.5
Considering
49ers +4.5
Raiders +9.5
