The new NBA season is less than two weeks old, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to start flagging trends that could determine the fates of teams and players around the league. We spent the weekend diving into the numbers to highlight the seven most fascinating early-season story lines, from Ja Morant’s malaise to Victor Wembanyama’s ascent and much more. Let’s jump right in.
Ja Morant and the Grizzlies Approaching the Boiling Point
The vibes in Memphis are Grizzly, folks. Both culturally and statistically, Morant’s fit in Memphis is on shaky ground. His “detrimental conduct” and subsequent one-game suspension has been covered extensively elsewhere, but Morant’s awful statistical start also deserves some scrutiny. Consider these two troubling nuggets:
- Out of 49 players who have tried at least 50 jumpers this season, Morant ranks last in efficiency by a country mile. He’s made only 14 of his 57 jumpers, which equates to just 0.58 points per shot—by far the lowest mark in the NBA.
- In Morant’s 171 minutes on the floor, the Grizzlies have an offensive rating of 106.2, a figure that would rank 28th in the league. In the 165 minutes he’s been off, that figure balloons to 113.7.
Nobody can question Morant’s talent, but it’s year seven, he’s 26 years old, and it is fair to question how a player making nearly $40 million per year is affecting both winning and morale. November 2025 is a critical month for Morant and Memphis.
Wemby’s No-Fly Zone
The Spurs didn’t just start 5-0 for the first time in franchise history, they also did it in true Popovichian fashion. Even after Sunday night's blowout loss in Phoenix, the vibes in San Antonio remain strong and the wins are coming in ways that should make Tim Duncan proud. The Spurs rank second in the league in both defensive efficiency and rebounding percentage, and it’s no secret why. Whenever Victor Wembanyama is on the floor, the team’s defensive numbers become downright scary.
The French phenom has played 203 minutes this season, and in that time the Spurs have allowed a measly 97.9 points per 100 possessions. Let me try to explain how ridiculous that is. The 2014-15 Sixers—yes, the Process-era Sixers—are the most recent NBA offense to post a lower offensive rating than that. Here’s another stat: When Wembanyama is on the court, Spurs opponents are managing only 29.5 points in the paint per 100 possessions; for context, the Cavs rank last in the NBA by scoring 39.1 points in the paint per 100.
The Wemby effect is simple: He makes your offense suck, especially around the basket. His defensive services are priceless; maybe he should consult the Louvre.
Giannis Out-Shaqing Shaq
Speaking of paint domination, Wemby isn’t the only European big man dominating the interior. Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting up some unprecedented offensive numbers at the rack. To help us appreciate what Giannis is doing so far this season, let’s refer to some Shaquillean historical context.
The NBA started tagging shot locations back in 1996. Since that time, no player has dominated the lane like Shaquille O’Neal, who led the league in paint scoring for a staggering 11 consecutive seasons from 1996-97 to 2006-07. In that window, the Big Diesel won four championships, a regular-season MVP award, and three Finals MVP trophies. O’Neal’s paint production peaked in the 1999-00 campaign, when he averaged 22.5 paint points per game in over 40 minutes per game.
Now, back to the closest Shaq facsimile in the modern era. Giannis is playing just 33 minutes per game, but in that time he’s averaging 23.2 points per game in the paint alone. (His 34.2 total points per game lead the NBA.) The best shots in the game are still close to the rim, and Giannis is by far the best in the league at getting them—just ask the Knicks.
As he led his team to a 10-point win over New York last week, Antetokounmpo had 31 points in the paint and converted seven dunks in 33 minutes of action. The other 19 players who played in that same basketball game combined to log just one (1) dunk.
There’s a power vacuum in the Eastern Conference this season, and if Giannis keeps this up, the Bucks, currently 4-2, have a chance to help fill it.
The Small Returns on Dallas’s Big Ball
The Mavs’ big, fancy frontcourt rotation is getting pushed around. The ensemble cast of Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Dereck Lively, P.J. Washington, and Daniel Gafford was supposed to be ferocious, but to this point they’ve been toothless.
On Saturday night in Mexico City, the Mavericks’ interior issues were on full display. The Pistons dominated the paint, outscoring Dallas 72-26 in the lane. It’s a familiar story—on opening night, San Antonio torched the Mavs, 68-26, in this same category. Dallas’s frontcourt is putting up norovirus numbers—there are bad stats coming out on both ends.
- The Mavericks rank 30th in the NBA by allowing 58.0 paint points per game.
- The Mavericks rank 25th in the NBA by scoring only 43.7 paint points per game.
That paint differential of -14.3 is the largest interior deficit in the league, and it’s a stunning stat for a squad built around AD and a gigantic frontcourt. The infamous Luka Doncic–Davis trade hangs over everything about this Mavs team, and fairly or not that means everything will be under a microscope. Between the team’s 2-4 start, its bottom-feeding offense, and these alarming paint numbers, the petri dish in Dallas is looking dicey.
Sure, the team is without Kyrie Irving, but the Mavs aren’t the only team in Texas without its starting point guard. Both the Spurs and Rockets are also down at the same position, and both of them are still top-10 offenses this season.
Stretch(ier) Vooch
Somebody in Chicago must have discovered Microsoft Excel, because suddenly the Bulls’ shot diet is arguably the smartest in the whole league. The Bulls have attempted just 28 two-point jumpers this season, the lowest figure in the NBA. Meanwhile, they rank second with 57.7 points in the paint per game. That smart constellation of shots—especially inside the arc—is powering the team’s mighty scoring numbers and impressive early start.
The Bulls’ 5-1 record is brought to you by the league’s fifth-ranked offense, which is being powered in large part by the awakening of Nikola Vucevic. I’ve been mapping this dude’s shots for over a decade, and 10 years ago he was one of the most active and impressive midrange shooting specialists in the NBA. It was his signature skill. But Vooch epitomizes the new-look Bulls in that he’s stopped taking midrangers.
In 2015-16, 30 percent of Vucevic’s shots were long 2s. That season, a 25-year-old Vooch took 394 2-point jumpers and just seven 3-point jumpers. A decade later, at 35, he has yet to take a single long 2 this year. Now, if he takes a jumper it’s a 3. And the new approach is working—Vooch is putting up the most efficient scoring numbers of his career, on pace to log career highs in true shooting percentage and free throws made per game.
Scorching the Nets
It’s early, but I'm ready to pinpoint the best offense in the league. The answer might not be what you’re expecting. No, it’s not Durant’s Rockets, who lead the league by racking up a ridiculous 126.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s impressive, sure, but that figure can’t hold a candle to the real offensive juggernaut barnstorming the league: whoever is playing the Nets.
Nets opponents are simply unstoppable, scoring a whopping 129 points per 100 possessions. No offense in the history of the league has even flirted with that number over the course of a season—and in fact, no defense in the history of the league has even flirted with allowing it. But records are made to be broken, and Brooklyn’s defense appears well-equipped to make history.
Paolo and Franz on Notice
The Magic still can’t shoot. I say still because this was their biggest red flag last season, when they finished as the league’s 27th-best offense, scoring less efficiently than the 17-win Utah Jazz. Welp, Orlando’s shooting numbers this year haven’t exactly sparked optimism.
The Magic currently rank last in the NBA in points per game on jumpers at 36.4. Why? In simple terms: They don’t shoot, and when they do, they miss. They rank 28th in jumpers attempted per game and 28th in jump shot efficiency.
Again, we knew this. They ranked 22nd in attempts per game last year, and 30th in efficiency. It was a glaring weakness for a talented team with big dreams, and it was a major reason why they went out and traded for Desmond Bane last summer. Yet Bane is just one man and it’s a lot to ask a player who made 3.2 jumpers per game last season to fix an entire team’s shooting woes by himself.
The real underlying issue here is the team’s young stars, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. If there’s one stat that sums up the team’s jump-shooting woes it is this: Since the beginning of last season, a total of 73 NBA players have attempted at least 500 jump shots. Among that group, Banchero and Wagner rank 71st and 73rd, respectively, in points per shot. Yikes.
Any team with one of these two volume shooters would be hard-pressed to arrive at healthy overall jump-shooting numbers, and Orlando has both. The hard truth is that Banchero and Wagner still have very high ceilings, but improving their jump shooting is vital.
