Before the NFL season began, one of my biggest questions was whether the favorites would continue their dominant run. So far, the answer is yes. The teams that dominated the last three months of the 2024 season have carried that success into 2025. Betting favorites of at least 4 points are 12-0 straight up this season. Everyone is thriving in their survivor pools, too.
It’s not just favorites, but road ones especially. Favorites away from home are 10-2 straight up. As the gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen, the medley of quarterback injuries throws a real wrinkle into the Week 3 puzzle. Jake Browning is in for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, Carson Wentz is in for J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota, and these two teams will play each other head-to-head. Justin Fields is also out for the Jets, and it’s possible Jayden Daniels might not play for Washington.
I’m back with more thoughts on the entire Week 3 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
For the third straight game, I’m betting against the Eagles offense in some way. Whether you think it’s new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo’s play calling, Nick Sirianni’s general philosophy, or Jalen Hurts’s risk management, this offense is prioritizing turnover avoidance to an extreme level. Philadelphia has completed just two passes for more than 10 yards in two games. They’re relying on the solidity of their defense to methodically grind out victories. The Eagles are 2-0, so credit to them. The defense has forced timely turnovers in each game so far, and it’s a solid bet that the Eagles’ offensive style will help them win the turnover battle consistently, as it has for the last calendar year. But that strategy lends itself to low-scoring games.
We haven’t seen the Eagles trailing in games very often over the past year. If Philly falls behind by the margin, this under bet that follows is probably cooked. However, the Eagles are the favorite and at home, where they can lean on their defense, which is elite at taking away explosive plays.
Two underrated storylines: the Rams’ problems in the red zone due to their shaky running game cost them last year in this playoff matchup; and could the NFL finally enforce the Eagles’ tush push penalties after last week’s public outcry?
Verdict: Bet under 44.5 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1.5)
I had real optimism for the Bears defense under new coordinator Dennis Allen entering the season. But now, not only are they plagued by injuries, but there’s also criticism coming from inside the house. Defensive lineman Grady Jarrett recently called out his own defense but, honestly, I’m not sure there’s much Chicago can do to fix the secondary without Jaylon Johnson, who is out indefinitely. Ben Johnson said that corner Kyler Gordon and linebacker T.J. Edwards have “week-to-week” injuries, so they’re both probably out on Sunday, too. Facing Dallas without your top two corners as the league’s worst-graded coverage unit is a recipe for disaster.
The Cowboys defense potentially without DaRon Bland isn’t much better. The Giants torched them on Sunday despite the Cowboys ultimately getting the win, and it makes sense why the total for this game rose in the betting market given Dallas’s own injury situation. So when I am power ranking these two teams right now, the defenses are pretty comparable. Ultimately, though, there’s a major difference at quarterback between Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams, and that’s why I like Dallas.
If Williams has a stellar outing and outduels Prescott, he can take my money. The Bears scored touchdowns on their opening drive in each of their first two games. After that, Chicago produced very little offense until they were down multiple scores in each game. Williams will have to prove it to me.
And if the game is close, Dallas has the ace in the hole with Brandon Aubrey. The Bears punt unit was a big problem in Week 1, too, which could open return lanes for KaVontae Turpin.
Verdict: Bet Dallas +1.5
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
The Chargers have unleashed Justin Herbert and the passing offense, and it’s been absolutely beautiful through the first two weeks. Maybe Herbert was more injured than we thought last year. Maybe offensive coordinator Greg Roman finally realized how good Herbert is. Maybe the return of Keenan Allen finally gives Herbert more than one receiving option alongside Ladd McConkey. No matter what is driving the new approach, the Chargers offense has been the second-most surprising in the league (after Indianapolis) because of how much they’ve let Herbert drop back to pass. The Chargers rank first in early-down pass rate in the first half after two games this season. The Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman Chargers!
The shine has also come off the Denver defense a bit after Daniel Jones and the Colts did not punt even once on Sunday. The Colts were able to avoid negative plays and consistently move the ball. They were not afraid to attack Patrick Surtain II, who didn’t seem 100 percent after suffering an ankle injury early in the game. Colts head coach Shane Steichen put Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton in a blender repeatedly.
Last year, the Chargers had no problems moving the ball up and down the field against Denver. Los Angeles scored on all four of its first-half possessions and led 20-0 at halftime in Denver. Then, in the rematch, the Chargers scored 34 points and posted 380 yards.
Verdict: Bet Chargers -2.5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
For the third consecutive week, I’m betting a Texans game to go under. The offense still has no semblance of a running game after back-to-back rushing duds against the Rams and Buccaneers. The offensive line’s problems don’t look fixable to me, and if new offensive coordinator Nick Caley has an innovative way to scheme around these issues, we have not seen it yet. C.J. Stroud keeps being forced into third-and-long situations and eating sacks on those downs. He seems to have lost the confidence and swagger he carried in his rookie year, and he doesn’t have connections with receivers not named Nico Collins.
At this point, we can probably just copy-and-paste what I’ve written about the Houston offense for the better part of one and a half years in this column. The Texans have the second-lowest rushing success rate in the league through two weeks. As for Jacksonville, they were able to run the ball efficiently in the first two games, but they played bottom-five defenses and this is a massive step up in class against an excellent Houston front.
Trevor Lawrence has had real issues connecting with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter through the first two weeks. The path to offense without that dynamic is pretty slim against Houston, especially now that Thomas has popped up on the injury report with a wrist issue.
It could be a function of the opponent, too, but Jacksonville does rank fifth in pass rush win rate so far. And PFF has them graded 11th in tackling, which was a major issue for them last year. Jacksonville can shoot up the defensive rankings with a real pass rush and better fundamentals.
Verdict: Bet under 44.5
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
The Cardinals are 2-0 with wins against the Panthers and Saints, and yet they have a negative net success rate. Arizona and San Francisco have faced a common opponent already, and the injured 49ers offense posted a considerably higher success rate (47.1 percent) on the road in New Orleans in Week 2 than Arizona did (39.1 percent) in Week 1.
Arizona hasn’t been able to establish the run at all, even against a porous Carolina defense. The red flags continue for the Cardinals, because the injury report is brutal for their defense. All three starting corners left their Week 2 game with injuries—Max Melton, Garrett Williams, and rookie Will Johnson. Since Arizona already lost Sean Murphy-Bunting and Starling Thomas V before the season even began, how is Arizona supposed to cover San Francisco on Sunday?
It’s hard for the market to properly account for this level of clustered injuries, and a matchup with Kyle Shanahan on the road is a herculean task for what’s left of the Arizona secondary.
Mac Jones wasn’t spectacular in his Niners debut, but he was more than competent enough, making quick decisions and moving the ball against a respectable Saints defense on the road. San Francisco is the marginally better team, is at home, and has a big matchup advantage.
Verdict: Bet 49ers -2.5
Thursday Night Football
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-11.5)
Someone asked me on Monday how many points the line would have to be before I considered betting Miami against the spread. I told them 20. The Dolphins defense has played Indianapolis and New England and is still dead last in the NFL in EPA allowed per drive by a wide margin. PFF grades them as the 28th-best coverage unit and now they’ll face a juggernaut Buffalo offense that has been a point-scoring supernova for the past calendar year.
There used to be value in betting against quarterback Tua Tagovailoa when the Dolphins played against high-quality opponents, especially Buffalo. You only have to go back to last season in Week 2 when the Bills were actually underdogs(!) in Miami. But this line suggests that the market (and everyone) has finally caught on. Miami’s secondary is shorthanded, and the only notable defensive strength they have is the pass rush. That won’t be effective against an elite Buffalo offensive line. And once Miami falls behind, Tagovailoa will be forced to push the ball downfield against a well-coached Buffalo secondary that has been successful against him in the past.
It’s pricey, but I don’t mind taking a swing on Tagovailoa interception props or Ray Davis to score the last touchdown (+1700) as a potential betting angle in this TNF dud.
Verdict: Bet Tua interception (-152), Davis last TD (+1700)
The Rest of the Slate
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Jake Browning has been quite successful backing up Joe Burrow in the past. There are 67 quarterbacks who have played at least 100 snaps since the start of the 2023 season. Burrow is 15th in adjusted EPA per play and Browning is 16th. I’m not saying Browning is nearly as good as Burrow, but the gap in offensive efficiency isn’t as big as you might think.
With Browning, the Bengals offense is under center more. They rely on play-action more. Browning avoids sacks better. He’s also more likely to turn the ball over, and against a Brian Flores defense, that’s a scary thought. But what version of Minnesota are we going to get? Christian Darrisaw is a massive loss for the Minnesota offensive line (as is center Ryan Kelly) and the Vikings defense wasn’t nearly as dominant on Sunday without Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel.
Is Carson Wentz an upgrade from J.J. McCarthy? You could argue that he actually is. Wentz has only been in the building a few weeks, but McCarthy has been pretty bad to start the season. Even including one great quarter against a depleted Chicago secondary, McCarthy is 71st out of 76 quarterbacks with at least 50 snaps in adjusted EPA per play.
I haven’t bet on this game yet, as I’m waiting to learn more about the Minnesota injury situation, but it’s the most fascinating game on the board this week. If you have Browning and Wentz opinions, it’s a strong betting opportunity.
Verdict: Pass for now
Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
This is a classic “sharp” game where everything in the traditional gambling book says you should bet the desperate 0-2 team at home as a divisional underdog. It’s even better when you consider the Colts are the shock 2-0 team who look way better than everyone thought they’d be offensively.
Indianapolis has almost no pass rush (32nd in pass rush win rate), which should make this a much better matchup than Tennessee faced with the Broncos and Rams to start the season. Until we learn more about the injury status of offensive linemen Kevin Zeitler and JC Latham, I can’t back Tennessee here. The line crumbled without them. However, if both are in, I think their offense will outperform expectations against a gettable Indianapolis secondary.
Verdict: Lean Titans on principle, but I'm already tired of betting them
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland should have beaten Cincinnati in Week 1 and was much closer to Baltimore in Week 2 than the final score ultimately indicated. Both of these can be true, and yet I still have no interest in fading the early-season Green Bay wagon. The Packers might be the best team in the NFL. If Micah Parsons is finally playing full snaps in this one, the statuesque nature of Joe Flacco becomes a major, major issue. The Packers’ coverage unit was a serious question entering the season, yet through two weeks, both outside corners have been stellar. All of this points to Flacco sacks, turnovers, and the potential for this game to get ugly. There’s been market support for Cleveland early in the week, but it won’t be from me. Green Bay is on extra rest and might still be underrated.
Verdict: Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at New England Patriots
Both of these defenses look like an abject disaster through two weeks, and the injury situation suggests it’s probably not going to get better for either. Outside linebacker Alex Highsmith has been ruled out already for Pittsburgh, along with defensive tackle Isaiahh Loudermilk. Safety DeShon Elliott and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. are both questionable. Both defenses are in the bottom eight in success rate allowed through two games after matchups against the Jets, Raiders, Seahawks, and Dolphins.
New England’s main problem has been allowing explosive plays through the air, and corner Christian Gonzalez is again questionable this week with a hamstring injury. All signs point to this game being high-scoring, but we’re also dealing with two of the most conservative in-game coaches in Mike Tomlin and Mike Vrabel. It’s all fun and games until both coaches are punting on fourth-and-1 from midfield to “trust their defense.”
The market has bet Pittsburgh on game day both weeks and has been wrong both times. I think New England’s team total over is the best way to play this one.
Verdict: Bet New England team total over 21.5
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Baker Mayfield is tied for the lead in turnover-worthy plays through two weeks, yet he has not turned the ball over once. Mayfield is certainly willing to put the ball in harm's way, but he also has quietly been one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks despite having three different offensive coordinators in three seasons with the Bucs. Since the start of the 2023 season, Mayfield ranks seventh among all quarterbacks (minimum 200 dropbacks) in adjusted EPA per play.
Tyrod Taylor is a very reliable backup quarterback who isn’t going to risk turnovers, but it kills the upside of the offense and takes away the rushing element that Justin Fields provides. This game is a true stay-away for me.
Verdict: Pass
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
The offensive line was the only strength of the Carolina offense. Now that starting center Austin Corbett and right guard Robert Hunt are out due to injuries, that’s no longer true. The market took notice of this, moving Atlanta from -3.5 out to -5.5 points. Given how effective the Falcons were at running the ball on Minnesota, and how bad the Carolina run defense looks on paper, this should be a good matchup for the Falcons offense to move the ball.
Backdoor Bryce Young burned me last week at Arizona after the Cardinals blew the cover with a 27-3 lead in the third quarter. It has me scarred from laying 5.5 on the road with Atlanta, but it’s the only way I could play this. Does Atlanta finally have a real pass rush? Early signs would say yes, but this is the third consecutive injured offensive line they’ve played to open the season, so let’s wait and see.
Verdict: Lean Falcons -5.5
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
The Saints continue their NFC West tour, but this time on the road against the best defense of the three they will have faced. Spencer Rattler has proved himself to be competent at moving the ball down the field, highlighting just how dire the Saints’ offensive situation was for most of last season when he was thrown into the fire and failed miserably.
It’s asking a lot for the Seahawks to cover 7, even at home with their excellent defense. The Saints are eighth in rushing success rate allowed through two games, and if you slow that side of the game down, the Seattle offense becomes very “Jaxon Smith-Njigba or bust.”
Verdict: Lean Saints and under
Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
An absolute nightmare spot for the Raiders. Not only are the Raiders on short rest coming off Monday Night Football, facing a team who played on Thursday night in Week 2, but this is Las Vegas’s second East Coast road trip in three weeks. If you think Jayden Daniels will play, then the Commanders should be bigger favorites than they are currently. We saw it last year going into a Commanders-Bears game, how Washington hinted all week that Daniels would be out, only for him to play through a rib injury.
Geno Smith was a disaster throwing the ball down the field against the Chargers on Monday, but this matchup is much closer to the Raiders’ game against New England in Week 1. Washington will surrender explosives and Smith is constantly hunting them. Feels like a good over game if Daniels is in, but no opinion from me until we know more on his status.
Verdict: Lean over if Daniels is in
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at New York Giants
I don’t know how anyone could lay 5.5 here given the quality of the Giants pass rush and the serious dropoff in Patrick Mahomes’s deep-ball passing ability. Dare I say we’re now at the point where the decline can’t just be explained away by blaming the receivers? It puts a pretty hard ceiling on this offense and, hey, maybe Russell Wilson will hit enough bombs to keep this game close late.
Seems like we’re overdue for one of those “Chiefs win close but don’t cover” games.
Verdict: Pass
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
The Ravens offense scores 30 points seemingly every time it gets off the bus. They have so many different ways to generate explosive plays that even the league’s best defenses will struggle to contain them. When you watch two premier offenses against one another, it does often feel like they’re playing a different sport from the normal teams.
I felt this way in Week 1 when the Ravens-Bills total was 4 points higher than every other game. With the exception of Cowboys-Bears, this is again the case on Monday night. It’s a new defensive coordinator for the Lions, but they’ve had consistent issues against running and mobile quarterbacks for multiple years. They’re still playing man coverage at a top-10 rate, and I feel strongly that the Ravens will score early and often in this game.
Verdict: Bet Ravens team total over 29.5 (-110)
Favorite five (5-5):
Chargers -2.5
Cowboys +1.5
49ers -2.5
Rams-Eagles under 44.5
Texans-Jaguars under 44.5
Other bets:
Tua interception (-152)
Ray Davis last TD (+1700)
Ravens team total over 29.5 (-110)
Patriots team total over 21.5 (-110)
