Welcome back to World Cup Countdown—The Ringer’s monthly column previewing the 2026 World Cup, which will be hosted in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Each month, we’ll cover everything shaping the tournament, from the U.S. men’s national team to the stars and story lines abroad that will define qualifying and the buildup to the opening match. Here’s where we stand 273 days before kickoff.
The Big Thing
Germany Shined at Home in Euro 2024, but There Are a Lot of Cracks in the Foundation
There are seven main favorites to win the 2026 World Cup—Spain, France, Brazil, Argentina, England, Germany, and Portugal—but one of them is already wobbling in qualifying. The shock of the September window came in Bratislava, where Slovakia stunned Germany 2-0 in the opening match of UEFA Group A.
On its own, one bad result is excusable. What’s worrying is that these sorts of losses are becoming a pattern for Germany. Since going toe-to-toe with Spain in the Euro 2024 quarterfinal, the highest-quality match of the tournament, Germany’s defense has consistently been a soft spot against quality opposition (which means we can ignore the results against Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Northern Ireland).
Germany is consistently allowing big chances, especially in transition. It conceded the opener against Slovakia last Thursday after David Hancko won the ball off German midfielder Florian Wirtz near the halfway line. Hancko was allowed to run for more than 40 yards with the ball at his feet while the German defense failed to pick him up. Leon Goretzka eventually caught up with Hancko, but the defender was still able to release the ball to his forward, drift past Antonio Rüdiger, and score Slovakia’s opener while the Germans sat in stunned resignation. Slovakia’s second goal came from a long ball delivered by the goalkeeper after German left back David Raum got outjumped for the header and David Strelec easily danced around Rüdiger and scored.
Julian Nagelsmann’s team did respond with a routine home win against Northern Ireland in their next match on September 7, and they’ll almost certainly handle their upcoming fixtures against Luxembourg both at home and away (as well as another match against Northern Ireland). That sets up November’s rematch against Slovakia in Germany as the game that will most likely determine who comes out of this group. But the underlying issues with their tactical setup remain. Jonathan Tah and Rüdiger are experienced central defenders, but Rüdiger has fallen out of favor as Real Madrid’s everyday starter at center back under Xabi Alonso. And the central defenders aren’t helped by fullbacks who have been shaky defensively, while the midfield pairing of Joshua Kimmich and Angelo Stiller has displayed limited range and ball-winning ability. Germany also had to play this window without Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz, two attack-minded players who contribute a lot of defensive work in pressing from the front.
“The fact that we are currently miles away from talking about the World Champion title is true,” retired German legend Toni Kroos said following the September 4-12 international window. “As it stands now, we are miles away and really not good. But in the summer, let the right players get fit.”
The Germans don’t need to panic yet. But for a team aiming to reestablish itself as a tournament powerhouse, the defensive cracks are starting to look less like blips and more like a trend.
It’s almost impossible to win a World Cup by trying to outscore everyone, especially at the end of the tournament. If their struggles in defensive transition continue to plague them—as they did at Euro 2020 and in the 2022 World Cup—Germany may drop down the list of favorites sooner rather than later.
State of the States
This section focuses on the United States men’s national team as it prepares to host the World Cup.
A 2-0 win against Japan on Tuesday will go a long way toward rescuing the vibes and improving the morale of the USMNT, even if Japan had rotated their squad after a scoreless draw with Mexico a few days earlier. It was a win against a similarly ranked opponent, and it also helped soften the blow of their disheartening performance in Saturday’s 2-0 loss to South Korea. And it’s a reminder of just how promising Folarin Balogun could be as the starting striker next summer.
Mauricio Pochettino made his pre–World Cup strategy clear in the presser following the defeat to South Korea. When asked about whether it’s important to get results in these fall windows, he replied: “We need to start to win when the World Cup starts.” Pochettino hearkened back to his time as an Argentina player in 2002, when the team had an excellent lead-up to the World Cup and got grouped anyway.
It’s clear, based on his squad choices and lineup decisions, that Pochettino’s not really prioritizing building form through winning. He’s in the lab trying different personnel combinations and tinkering with formations to gain as much information as possible before next June. You can question his process, but I think that it’s unfair to criticize him for the results of friendly matches or to overstate the importance of winning them. You just have to go back to 2022 to see that Morocco wasn’t great in pre–World Cup friendlies and then beat Belgium, Spain, and Portugal en route to the World Cup semifinal.
Like Gregg Berhalter toward the end of his tenure, Pochettino is giving opportunities to multiple newer faces on the national team. To me, that’s an indicator that he doesn’t think all that much of the current crop of established USMNT talent. Despite that, there are still some true international success stories on this squad—like Antonee Robinson at Fulham and Chris Richards at Crystal Palace—and the pool of solid Americans who are playing in Europe has never been deeper. But it’s still evident that because of injuries and stunted development, this supposed golden generation has generally stalled out and has not quite reached the highs that we’d dreamed of during the 2022 World Cup.
When you watch Sergiño Dest attacking up the flank or Balogun running the channels in these friendlies, you see the difference in quality that the USMNT has when it’s at full strength. In the same match, you can also see the limitations of the aging Tim Ream as a center back in Pochettino’s high line and the greenness of Tristan Blackmon, who has been making his first USMNT appearances.
More World Cup Previews
Could a back three work for the USMNT?
I think that the answer is an unequivocal yes.
We saw under Berhalter that a lot of the USMNT’s ball progression came from the wide players. The United States still doesn’t have a deep-lying central midfield playmaker, and the Tyler Adams–Sebastian Berhalter double pivot really struggled against the South Korean press on Saturday. As a result, the Americans have often relied on Dest and Robinson—their two best outlets and ball progressors—to move the ball into the final third. We’ve also seen the limitations that Dest has as a defender in the back four—just check the tape from their round of 16 defeat to the Netherlands in the 2022 World Cup. Playing a back three limits the defensive responsibility put on him.
Even when Pochettino has played a back four, he often uses a defensive midfielder to drop into the back line and widen the fullbacks. So it’s not all that different from playing a back three. The Americans’ most talented attacking players aren’t really touchline winger types, as Christian Pulisic and Tim Weah are quite comfortable operating in the half spaces as wide forwards.
Setting up in a back three would also enable Richards to play in a system that’s similar to what he does with Palace. Taking a player out of the center of the pitch would give more space for the midfielders to dribble the ball forward instead of passing in tighter spaces, which further benefits the American players’ skill sets.
The no. 1 goal for Pochettino should be to figure out who the center backs are and whether they have the requisite skills to make this system work. But I’m all for tinkering, especially in a tournament setting.
The USMNT’s next opportunities will come in friendlies against Ecuador on October 10 and Australia on October 14. The team also announced that it will be playing Paraguay and Uruguay in November.
Stock Watch
This section focuses on the shifting fortunes of players, managers, and nations who could play a significant role next summer.
Stock Up: Bolivia’s Home Field Advantage
Although it had already qualified for the World Cup in June, Brazil put out a relatively strong team in the final game of CONMEBOL qualifying in Bolivia on Tuesday night—yet it was no match for one of the strongest home field advantages in the sporting world.
Bolivia hosted the match at Estadio Municipal de El Alto, just west of the capital city of La Paz. The stadium sits at 13,412 feet above sea level—more than 2.5 miles high. The elevation is the great equalizer, and it has helped power the team to wins against Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Chile, and now Brazil during this qualifying cycle. Of the 20 total points Bolivia earned across 18 matches, 17 of them came on home soil.
The Bolivians needed a win plus help to bypass Venezuela for the seventh-place spot in the CONMEBOL standings. They outshot Brazil 23-10, but it was a penalty just before halftime that helped them secure the win.
The Bolivians will now enter into the intercontinental playoff with five other teams to battle for the last two places in the 48-team field. Those games will not be played at extreme elevation in Bolivia, which is bad news for the Bolivians, who are much more vulnerable away from home. They were outscored 10-1 in three Copa Ámerica away games against the United States, Uruguay, and Panama last summer and were outscored 28-4 in nine road World Cup qualifiers.
Stock Down: Sweden Without Alexander Isak at Full Go
After his summer transfer saga dragged into the final hours of deadline day, Alexander Isak is still working back into shape and played just 18 minutes off the bench for Sweden in its two World Cup qualifiers on the road against Slovenia and Kosovo. The Swedes tied Slovenia 2-2 and looked toothless in a 2-0 defeat at Kosovo.
Even though it trailed from the 26th minute onward against Kosovo, Sweden produced 0.95 total expected goals, and Isak was responsible for almost half of that (0.38) with his four shot attempts late in the match. Sweden now faces an uphill battle to win Group B, especially since Switzerland has brushed aside both Slovenia and Kosovo at home. It might even be a challenge for the Swedes to place second (and secure a playoff berth) given how competitive the rest of the group is.
Since Isak is not yet starting and Dejan Kulusevski is still recovering from knee surgery, the Swedes have needed Viktor Gyökeres and Anthony Elanga to shoulder more of the attacking load. And while Gyökeres did have an assist against Slovenia, he produced an underwhelming two total shot attempts across both matches.
The first two matches were so bad that defender Emil Krafth issued an apology to fans, saying, “It's not acceptable to come down here and play this way.”
Stock Up: Cape Verde Is Trying to Make History
The best benefit of the expanded World Cup field is that so many smaller nations have an opportunity to qualify for the tournament for the first time in their history. Cape Verde is on the brink of being a World Cup debutant, and it would be the second-smallest nation to ever reach the tournament. Cape Verde’s population is 525,000, which is comparable to Sacramento’s. Cape Verde is led by 35-year-old captain Ryan Mendes, who has 22 career goals and plays his club soccer at Kocaelispor in the Turkish Super Lig.
Cape Verde has a four-point lead over Cameroon in Group D after winning at home on Tuesday. If it beats Libya or Eswatini in the final qualifying matches in October, it'll clinch its spot in the field.
Stock Down: Nigeria’s World Cup Chances
Nigeria needed wins against both Rwanda and South Africa to have any real chance of qualifying for next year’s World Cup. It picked up a 1-0 triumph against Rwanda, but the 1-1 draw with South Africa means that winning the final two matches most likely won’t be enough to get the Super Eagles to the intercontinental playoff.
Nigeria managed five total shots on target in the must-win match against South Africa, which is a tough look for the Nigerian attack, which features Fulham’s Alex Iwobi and Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman.
It would be one thing if this qualifying cycle were a one-off for Africa’s most populous country. But if it fails to qualify, this will be the second consecutive World Cup Nigeria has missed. Its presence would be missed during the games in North America, especially since the United States has the most Nigerian immigrants of any nation in the world.
Stock Down: The Democratic Republic of Congo’s supporters
Democratic Republic of Congo’s collapse at home against Senegal in its most important qualifying match did not sit well with the fan base. The Leopards led 2-0 in the first half, and a win would have all but secured their place in the World Cup. Even a draw would have been enough to keep them in front of Senegal in Group B with two matches to play in qualifying. But once Tottenham’s Pape Matar Sarr scored an 87th-minute winner to complete Senegal’s 3-2 comeback, the fans had seen enough. They began ripping up the plastic seats installed in Kinshasa's Stade des Martyrs two years ago and throwing them onto the pitch.
DR Congo’s chances of qualifying directly as a group winner are now quite low, but the Leopards remain one of the top four second-placed teams that could advance to a playoff for the final spot.
Awards Spotlight
Each month, the World Cup Countdown selection committee (me) will highlight some of the best, worst, and strangest moments in the sport.
The Belt-to-Ass Award: Norway 11, Moldova 1
Norway has been an absolute buzz saw during World Cup qualifying, leaving little chance for Italy to creep back into the race for first place and the automatic bid in Group I. Norway beat Moldova 11-1 on Tuesday; Erling Haaland scored five, then apologized to the Moldovan goalkeeper for pouring it on for goal difference. Martin Ødegaard and Felix Horn Myhre each grabbed one, and Rangers midfielder Thelo Aasgaard added four more. Norway put up 7.54 (!) expected goals on 34 shots and has now won all five of its qualifying matches. Its next two fixtures are in Oslo against Israel and Estonia. If it wins those, Italy would need to beat Norway by four goals at home on the final day of group play in November to have any chance of surpassing the Norwegians.
There are still questions about the quality of Norway’s defense, but almost all of its starting XI plays significant minutes with clubs in the big five leagues. With a creator like Ødegaard, a finisher like Haaland, and a potential super-sub as good as Alexander Sørloth, Norway could be a really popular sleeper pick to make a run next summer.
The Crash Out of the Year Award: Nottingham Forest Chairman Evangelos Marinakis
As spring crept toward summer, seeds of doubt were planted in the relationship between Nottingham Forest chairman Evangelos Marinakis and club manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Marinakis infamously confronted Espirito Santo on the pitch following a 2-2 draw with Leicester City that grew Nottingham Forest’s late-season winless streak to four and dropped them into seventh place. Forest were able to break that streak in the next game, but the season still didn’t end how they would have hoped. Their late-season slide caused them to miss out on the Champions League even though they’d been in the top four for much of the year, and the relationship between Marinakis and Nuno worsened throughout the summer.
Espirito Santo gave a press conference in August in which he acknowledged that his and Marinakis’s relationship had changed for the worse. The two were no longer seeing eye to eye, and he was concerned that he’d be sacked. Sure enough, three matches into the season, Marinakis crashed out and fired the manager, who had brought Forest immense success and a clear winning style.
It’s a shocking choice and could prove to be incredibly shortsighted. Forest’s entire squad—especially the center backs—is built around Espirito Santo’s tactical philosophy of defending deep without the ball and producing chances in transition. Instead of seeking someone who would highlight those qualities, Marinakis has hired former Spurs manager Ange Postecoglou, who loves to press aggressively, defend with a high line, and keep the ball. It would be impossible to find a bigger stylistic mismatch in the Premier League between squad profile and managerial tactics than the one between Espirito Santo and Postecoglou.
The Spoiler Award: The Colombian National Team
Venezuela and Colombia are fierce soccer rivals, and it’s fitting that the two were matched up on the final day of CONMEBOL qualifying on Tuesday. Colombia had already secured its spot with a win against Bolivia on September 4, but that didn’t stop it from playing spoiler and ruining Venezuela’s chances of reaching the World Cup for the first time ever. Venezuela led the match 2-1 after 12 minutes before Colombia’s Luis Suárez—no, not that Luis Suarez—scored four consecutive goals.
Venezuela fired manager Fernando Batista after the loss, and Colombians can boast about being the reason why Venezuela is the only CONMEBOL nation never to reach the World Cup.
Extra Time Notes
- Italy’s 5-4 win against Israel on Tuesday was one of the most exciting matches of the entire qualifying cycle. The Italians had to overcome two own goals and some uninspired goalkeeping by new Manchester City signing Gianluigi Donnarumma, but they managed to steal the win after Sandro Tonali scored in stoppage time from outside the penalty area. It keeps Italy in position to qualify for the UEFA playoff in the spring, even if the performance and shambolic defending don’t encourage much enthusiasm that new manager Gennaro Gattuso has the nation on the right track. I suspect that we’ll have a lot more to say about Italy in future editions of this column.
- Five teams officially clinched a World Cup bid during the September qualifying period: Uruguay, Colombia, and Paraguay in South America, as well as Morocco and Tunisia in Africa. That brings the current total to 18, including the three host nations.
- Qualifying returns during the next international break on October 6, with matches on four different continents. Here are the matches I have circled as the most interesting to watch:
October 9: Czechia vs. Croatia
October 10: Belgium vs. North Macedonia
October 10: Sweden vs. Switzerland
October 11: Serbia vs. Albania
October 13: Northern Ireland vs. Germany
