Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, Josh Allen led an epic comeback against Lamar Jackson’s Ravens, Aaron Rodgers showed he’s not washed yet, and Daniel Jones and the Colts thoroughly embarrassed the Dolphins. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Loser: Ravens Discourse
Did John Harbaugh watch the same game the rest of us did? The one where Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson looked less like quarterbacks and more like demigods on a football field as they led their teams to a combined 81 points in a thrilling 41-40 win for the Bills on Sunday night? The same one in which Harbaugh decided, with his team holding a two-point lead with 93 seconds to play, to take the ball out of Jackson’s hands on fourth-and-2 and punt it back to the Bills? Allen needed only a few plays to get into the range of Matt Prater, the 41-year-old kicker who just signed with the team days ago.
It’s a bit of a stretch to say that Harbaugh’s decision cost his team the game—Derrick Henry’s fumble was the biggest needle-mover in the Bills’ comeback—but it did decrease Baltimore’s chances of pulling off a key win that could end up deciding home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Based on ESPN’s fourth-down model, it was a clear “go” situation.
Even if Harbaugh ultimately got what he deserved for playing scared, this was still a terribly unlucky game for the Ravens. Henry’s fumble with 3:10 left in the fourth quarter was the big blow, but Buffalo would have already been out of the game if not for this slapstick fourth-down conversion for a touchdown on the preceding drive:
I’m sure this result will spark plenty of debate-show segments this week about whether Baltimore will ever get over the hump. Instead, hopefully we still carve out some time to celebrate the quarterback duel Allen and Jackson just treated us to in Week 1. Jackson had appeared to close out the Bills on two separate occasions in the second half. First, with this throw that DeAndre Hopkins hauled in with one hand:
Then he appeared to break the Bills defense with a winding scramble to move the chains on third-and-10:
Buffalo’s defense did bounce back in a big way when Ed Oliver, who dominated the trenches all night, stripped the ball from Henry to spark the comeback. But overall, this was not a good showing for the Bills defense, which had no consistent answer for the Ravens’ run game. Henry ran for 169 yards and two scores on just 18 carries. Jackson added 70 rushing yards and averaged 11.7 yards on six carries. Baltimore was moving the chains with nearly every run.
It didn’t look as if the Bills would be able to keep up, and they eventually fell behind by 15 points in the fourth quarter. That forced offensive coordinator Joe Brady to abandon the run game, which hadn’t been very efficient, and put the game in Allen’s hands. The reigning MVP delivered, racking up 251 yards on 16-for-21 passing and accounting for three touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone. Many quarterbacks around the league would be happy with those stats for an entire game, when Allen needed just a few drives. Allen is still at his best when he breaks the structure of the Bills offense, but he’s developed into one of the league’s best pocket passers over the last two years. While he used his legs plenty during the late rally, it was mainly powered by his arm. One of the big plays in the comeback came on a pass Allen threw from the pocket, having worked deep into his progression and locating his tight end down the seam on the backside. This completion got Buffalo down to the goal line.
That’s not a play Allen was making with regularity two years ago. Now those plays are all over his tape, to go along with the feats of freakish athleticism and power. Allen has combined high-level pocket passing with unstoppable playmaking; and when he’s on, there are only two other quarterbacks in the league who can keep up with him. Now, Allen beat one of those quarterbacks tonight for a big win in the AFC playoff race and the first leg up in his yearly MVP race with Jackson.
Winner: Aaron Rodgers (and His Old Team)
The Steelers and Jets delivered the first big surprise of the season by playing a highly entertaining football game. I reluctantly included it in my quadbox setup during Sunday’s early slate of games out of morbid curiosity about Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields, who switched teams in the offseason. But within a few drives, I was locked in. Enthralled, even. Pittsburgh won in the end, 34-32, thanks to a 60-yard field goal from Chris Boswell in the final minute, but I’d consider both teams winners. Even if the Jets are 0-1, I’m not dreading having to watch this team play football next week. That’s progress!
What we saw out of the Steelers offense also resembled progress compared to last season. Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt in his Pittsburgh debut. Those numbers oversell how sharp he was, but he showed enough comfort in Arthur Smith’s offense that I remain encouraged about his fit with this team. Rodgers was at his best on Sunday when the Steelers used play-action. On 12 dropbacks with a play fake, he averaged 0.58 EPA per play with a 58-percent success rate, per TruMedia. Three of his touchdown passes came on play-action, and each of those from under center, including this one in the fourth quarter to Calvin Austin:
While under-center play-action has been a staple of Smith’s offenses in the past, Rodgers generally prefers not to turn his back to the defense. That play-action was a major aspect of Pittsburgh’s plan on Sunday shows that the notoriously picky quarterback is willing to fall in line with the offense his coaches have devised—for now, at least. We’ll see if that continues when the Steelers offense hits its first roadblock, which is surely coming if they can’t run the ball more efficiently and keep Rodgers (and his offensive line) out of obvious passing situations more effectively than they did in Week 1. Rodgers was productive against the Jets on play-action and screen passes—concepts that typically work on early downs—but when the Jets’ pass rush could pin its ears back and successfully caved in the pocket, the 41-year-old passer’s age really showed. He averaged just 2.4 yards per play on his nine pressured dropbacks and was sacked on nearly half of those plays, including his first snap of the game. Rodgers doesn’t cope with pressure as well as he did when he was at the peak of his powers in Green Bay. It’s the biggest difference between the version of Rodgers that won back-to-back MVPs not too long ago and this physically limited version we’ve seen over the past few years.
The more Pittsburgh is able to protect him from obvious passing situations and crumbling pockets, the better Rodgers, and the Steelers offense, will look. Maintaining an efficient run game, calling more play-action, and utilizing more screen passes will take the teeth out of opposing pass rushes and keep the pocket clean. If Pittsburgh’s defense can get its act together, another playoff run for the Steelers, and a redemption season for Rodgers, isn’t out of the question.
To be fair to that Steelers defense, it was given a surprisingly stout challenge from Fields and the Jets. New York’s running game was a pain in the ass to defend, and Fields played a significant role in making it so difficult. First-year offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, who followed new head coach Aaron Glenn to New York from Detroit, made good use of his quarterback’s athleticism by calling numerous read-option plays and under-center runs, designed to get Fields running boot-action in order to keep the edge defenders from crashing down on the backside. And after showing that all game, Engstrand dialed up a bootleg keeper for Fields that resulted in a go-ahead touchdown on fourth down:
It was the perfect game plan for Fields, and to the fifth-year quarterback’s credit, he executed at a high level. He didn’t put the ball in harm's way, he found open receivers with a consistency that we’ve never seen from him, and he hit his layups. This wasn’t a masterclass in dropback passing, but it was a professional display of quarterbacking from a player who hasn’t produced many of those throughout his career. He was also highly efficient. Fields led all quarterbacks on Sunday at 0.54 EPA per dropback with a success rate over 64 percent, according to TruMedia. He averaged nearly 9 yards per dropback! A lot of that came against basic passing coverages by the Steelers and loaded boxes, but Fields could be seeing a lot of those if New York’s run game remains productive. And if Engstrand and Fields can keep this up, the former could be interviewing for head coaching jobs next offseason, and the latter won’t be looking for a new job.
The Jets had to settle for a moral victory, but they probably deserved more out of the game. They outgained the Steelers, averaged more EPA per play, finished with more first downs, and even averaged more points per drive. Ultimately, the difference was a fumbled kickoff return by the Jets that gave Pittsburgh an extra possession. The Jets just needed to make one more play to pull out what would have been a perfect start to the Aaron Glenn era. Instead, Rodgers, the quarterback Glenn jettisoned from his locker room as soon as possible, got his storybook start in Pittsburgh and the sweet feeling of revenge.
Seeing Rodgers get the last laugh has to sting Jets fans, but they can look on the bright side: He finally played a watchable game at MetLife Stadium.
Winner: Daniel Jones
We could have a possible Sam Darnold situation brewing in Indianapolis, where Daniel Jones led the Colts to a 33-8 beatdown of the Dolphins on Sunday. Jones completed 22 of 29 passes for 272 yards (an impressive 9.7 yards per attempt) and a touchdown. Jones also ran for 26 yards and looked fast for the first time since his 2022 season with the Giants. The confidence in his deep ball also seemed to be back, as he connected on a handful of downfield throws.
You’ll notice that all of those throws were aimed outside the numbers. Jones avoided the middle of the field almost entirely, which might have been Shane Steichen’s plan to help his quarterback avoid turnover-worthy throws.
If that was by design, the plan worked perfectly. Jones had only one close call in the win over Miami, a short throw over the middle that was nearly picked off. Outside of that mistake and a comical miss on the first drive, Jones was sharp and decisive. He looked confident in the pocket, which we have seen from him in a few seasons. And he was an accurate distributor on Indy’s run-pass option plays. Jones kept the Colts offense on schedule by completing passes and avoiding sacks. He took just one sack while facing pressure on 21.2 percent of his dropbacks, thanks to some slick pocket movement and a 2.41-second average time to throw. These numbers aren’t misleading; this was a high-quality performance from Jones.
Making the day sweeter for Danny Dimes, his old team in New York fell flat in its first Week 1 game without him since 2020. The Giants couldn’t find the end zone in a 21-6 loss to the Commanders, marking the third straight season opener in which they failed to score a touchdown. It was a disheartening performance for the Giants. Russell Wilson looked slow trying to outrun the waves of pressure Washington sent at him. Wilson’s arm isn’t completely cooked, but he can’t make throws on the run like he used to, and his pocket presence is as shaky as ever. It was bad. So bad that Giants coach Brian Daboll didn’t commit to Wilson as his starter going into Week 2. Fans in New York were already calling for Wilson’s job after first-round pick Jaxson Dart lit it up in the preseason. Those calls will only get louder this week after Sunday’s brutal showing. Jones, who also has a young player on the bench pushing for his job, won’t have to worry about such calls this week.
Loser: Mike McDaniel
Getting dunked on by Daniel Jones feels like the beginning of the end for Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, who had entered the season as the betting favorite to be the first coach fired. Those odds will only get shorter after his Dolphins mustered just eight points in their season opener, all of which were scored in garbage time. The game wasn’t nearly as competitive as the final score implies. The Colts scored points on every possession and probably could have put up 50 if they had wanted to.
But as helpless as Miami’s defense was against Jones and Co., the offensive performance was even worse. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa turned it over three times, averaged just 5.0 yards per attempt, and finished with a QBR of just 2.7 (out of 100). And just to put a stamp on it, we even got a sideline shot of a frustrated Tyreek Hill. The run game did produce 6.5 yards per attempt, but it was hardly of any use with Miami chasing the Colts from the very beginning. This is a continuation of a troubling trend for McDaniel, whose offense seems to become easier to defend with each passing season. Perhaps Tagovailoa’s limitations as a passer stop him from advancing McDaniel’s scheme in a meaningful way, but this is the quarterback McDaniel endorsed for a big-money extension last year. Now the coach must be stuck tossing and turning in a bed he made for himself.
Tagovailoa’s two interceptions against the Colts illustrate how stale this Dolphins pass game has become. Indianapolis was in the same coverage on both plays, and the defensive play call was designed to take away the specific thing Miami was attempting to do. The Dolphins like to set up high-low reads for Tua, with a pass catcher running on a short route underneath and another receiver on a deeper in-breaking route. The Colts dropped a defensive lineman, Laiatu Latu, into the underneath area to take away the short route, which allowed the linebacker working behind him to drop deep. On the first pick, Tagovailoa sailed the throw to the deep route, and it was picked by the safety:
On the second pick, Tagovailoa didn’t see Latu dropping in coverage and hit him right in the chest with the football:
Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo anticipated how McDaniel and Tagovailoa would try to attack his defense because the Dolphins have been putting the same concepts on tape for the last three years. McDaniel has to evolve as a play caller, or Tagovailoa has to evolve as a quarterback. Neither has shown any sign of doing so over the past two seasons, and this one’s not off to a great start either.
Losers: NFC North Offenses
The Lions, Vikings, and Bears have Jerry Jones to blame after the Cowboys owner sent Micah Parsons to the Packers for the low cost of just two first-round picks and a solid player (defensive tackle Kenny Clark). Even with Parsons playing a part-time role in Green Bay’s 27-13 win over Detroit on Sunday, he’s already making the trade feel like a bargain for his new team. On just 22 pass rush snaps, Parsons generated three pressures and a sack—to bring his career sack total to 53.5—and his Packers total to one. Green Bay mostly saved Parsons for high-leverage downs in his debut. His first snap (and first pressure) came on the first third down of the game for the Lions. Parsons immediately beat right tackle Penei Sewell with an inside move, flushing Jared Goff from the pocket and wrecking the play for Detroit:
Goff’s life was a lot easier when the Packers’ new star wasn’t on the field. Goff averaged 0.44 EPA per dropback and 6.0 yards per dropback with Parsons on the sideline, per TruMedia. Those numbers dropped to minus-0.24 and 3.3, respectively, on the 22 dropbacks when Parsons was on the field. On-off splits can sometimes be misleading, but in this case, it clearly appears Parsons made quite the impact in his first game for Green Bay.
He certainly made the day easier for Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, who last season had to use creative tactics to generate a consistent pass rush because he didn’t have a game-changing star. That included dialing up a bunch of blitzes and simulated pressures, which worked when the Packers played bad offenses but could be picked apart by better quarterbacks. But Green Bay didn’t have to use the smoke and mirrors to knock Goff off his game in this one. Hafley sent only five blitzes at the Lions quarterback, and they weren’t very effective. Goff averaged 9.2 yards per dropback when the Packers blitzed, while averaging 4.1 yards on the other 38 dropbacks, per TruMedia. Because Green Bay didn’t have to send extra rushers to create pressure, Hafley could commit more defenders to pass coverage. This is a more sound way to play defense, and if it continues, it could lead to more reliable results and this year’s Packers defense won’t be nearly as dependent on turnovers as the 2024 unit was. It’s a small sample, but we have now seen Green Bay’s defense dominate one of the NFL’s great offenses while generating just one takeaway. That didn’t happen often in Green Bay last season, and certainly not against good offenses like Detroit’s.
The Packers offense looked pretty good itself. Quarterback Jordan Love got off to a fast start thanks to stellar pass protection that allowed him to wait for his receivers to separate from Detroit’s man coverage. Green Bay’s run game will have better days, but if the offensive line can provide Love with the type of clean pockets he threw from on Sunday, the offense should continue to churn out points.
This was a thoroughly impressive performance from a team that now has to be considered the favorite in the NFC North after blowing out the reigning division champs. And this should be a scary thought for the rest of the division: The Packers defense will only get stronger as Parsons's snap count increases and his role grows.
Winner: Geno Smith
So far, Geno Smith is winning the breakup with the Seahawks. Smith led the Raiders to a comfortable 20-13 win over the Patriots on Sunday just in time to watch his former team and replacement throw away a game to the 49ers. Well, technically, Sam Darnold fumbled the game away for the Seahawks when he lost his grip after the ball hit his right tackle’s back.
San Francisco recovered the fumble and kneeled on the ball for a 17-13 win. Darnold committed the key turnover and threw for only 150 yards, but it’s probably unfair to solely blame Seattle’s quarterback play for the loss. I’m not sure Smith would have fared better playing behind this Seahawks offensive line, which didn’t protect Darnold well and struggled to create any holes in the run game. It was a total team failure.
Smith didn’t have much more help against the Patriots, but still was productive in his Raiders debut. He didn’t get much help from the ground game, and the Raiders had to fight for every yard against a tough defensive front. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty struggled to find a groove and averaged just 2.0 yards per attempt in his NFL debut. The offensive line surrendered four sacks and looked overwhelmed in obvious passing situations. But Smith’s strong arm and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s heavy use of play-action on early downs helped the Raiders secure the opening-week win. Smith averaged 9.1 yards per dropback, the second-highest mark of the week, and he was the steady hand this young Raiders offense needed—exactly what Las Vegas didn’t have at QB a season ago.
Smith’s veteran savvy helped Las Vegas kick off the scoring. With his team facing a third-and-long deep in Patriots territory, he noticed New England’s defense in a blitz look, changed the protection to pick it up, and then calmly found Tre Tucker for an easy touchdown.
Smith finished the game 24-of-34 for 362 passing yards and a touchdown. He threw an early interception, but that didn’t stop him from pushing the ball downfield for the rest of the afternoon. Outside of the pick, which was the result of a poor throw and not a bad decision, Smith put on an impressive showing with his arm, throwing it all over the field.
It was a thorough performance that showed why the Raiders were excited to send a third-round pick to Seattle for Smith. He operated the offense well, threw the ball accurately, and capitalized whenever New England’s defense made a mistake in coverage. Smith played winning football.
The Seahawks didn’t quite get that from their new quarterback. It’s still far too early to declare a winner here, but Geno is up on the cards after taking the first round convincingly.
Winner: The Evil Spirit Haunting the Falcons Franchise
I’d say the Falcons threw another gut punch at their fans on Sunday, but they’re used to this by now. I’m sure they knew better than to get their hopes up after Michael Penix Jr.’s go-ahead touchdown run with just over two minutes remaining in their game against the Buccaneers. And I’m sure they were ready for what was to come when Younghoe Koo lined up for a 44-yard field goal attempt that could have forced overtime. This is what the Falcons do.
Atlanta nearly won the game two plays before Koo’s missed kick. Penix fired a red zone pass to a seemingly open receiver, only for Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. to appear out of nowhere and break it up. It was the perfect tease from the football gods for Falcons fans.
The Falcons wouldn’t have needed that field goal if the defense had done its job. Penix had already led what should have been the game-winning drive after converting on two fourth-down scrambles in the red zone. But Atlanta held on to that lead for about 70 seconds. Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield cut up the Falcons secondary and marched the Bucs down the field as Atlanta’s defensive backs sat in a soft zone defense. Mayfield put Tampa Bay up for good with a perfectly placed pass to rookie Emeka Egbuka up the seam for a touchdown.
Penix started just three games as a rookie, and he was largely impressive in the 2025 opener. It was an encouraging start to this new era of Falcons football, eventually spoiled by an all-too-familiar feeling for this franchise.
