
The Philadelphia Eagles went from having one of the NFL’s worst defenses in 2023 to the league’s best by the end of last season, when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy after throttling the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. That type of extreme turnaround might not be common, but we see bad defenses turn into good defenses from one year to the next fairly often in the NFL. The football nerds (a term of endearment!) have told us for a while now that offensive performance is more stable than defensive performance year to year. So much about defensive performance is heavily influenced by the quarterbacks a team faces and how lucky they get with things like turnovers and starters staying healthy. In other words, you have to dig a little deeper to figure out what’s real.
Keeping that in mind, it’s still fun to try to predict who will rise and who will fall. So here are my preseason rankings based on how I think all 32 defenses will perform in 2025.
Statistics from this article are from TruMedia or Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
1
Seattle Seahawks

Jarran Reed and Leonard Williams celebrate during the third quarter of a preseason game against the Raiders
Surprise! The reason I have the Seahawks in the top spot is simple: coaching plus scheme plus talent. All the ingredients are here for a great defense. Seattle came on strong in the second half of last season, and Mike Macdonald’s defenses over the past three seasons (including two in Baltimore) have all finished in the top 10 in efficiency.
Up front, Leonard Williams is coming off a terrific year, while 2024 first-round pick Byron Murphy II is a prime candidate to make the second-year leap. I liked the addition of veteran Demarcus Lawrence. The secondary is talented, and rookie safety Nick Emmanwori should be a fun player for Macdonald to work with. The mix of reliable veterans and young wild cards here has me predicting a high ceiling. I think the Seahawks defense is going to be one of the stories of the 2025 season.
2
Houston Texans

Chuba Hubbard of the Panthers is tackled by Will Anderson Jr. and Tim Settle Jr. in a preseason game
This is an old-school “we want to inflict pain” defense. There have been games where it feels like the Texans are playing with 15 guys on the field—everyone swarming and looking to destroy opposing ballcarriers. What I like most about this unit is that it has shown over the last couple years that it can hold its own against great quarterbacks and great offenses. Remember how the Texans forced Josh Allen into a 9-for-30 performance in Week 5 of last season?
Houston has a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate in edge defender Will Anderson Jr., and as a unit, the Texans, when we include their postseason performance, led the NFL in pressure rate last season. In the secondary, Derek Stingley Jr. has established himself as one of the league’s best corners. The pieces all fit here, and DeMeco Ryans knows how to coach ’em up. This is an elite unit.
3
Philadelphia Eagles

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio before a preseason game against the Cleveland Browns
As mentioned at the top, it’s hard to stay on top defensively from one year to the next. After their Super Bowl win in February, a lot of people ran with the narrative about the Eagles’ investment in their pass rush paying off. Sure, the pass rush showed up in the Super Bowl against Kansas City. But that one game didn’t tell the story of the 2024 defense. Vic Fangio’s group produced suffocating coverage on the back end of the defense most weeks, and that allowed the pass rush to get home. It wasn’t the other way around. Replicating that same type of stifling pass coverage will be a challenge in 2025, with the Eagles searching to find a capable second cornerback to play opposite Quinyon Mitchell and a replacement for safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, with rookie Drew Mukuba potentially filling the latter role.
The concern for the Eagles is not only roster turnover, but also depth. They had the second-best injury luck of any defense in the NFL last season. So given all the concern, why do I still have Philadelphia ranked so high? One, we all saw what Fangio did in year one with the Eagles. I trust him to figure things out. And two, they still have a bunch of guys—Jalen Carter, Zack Baun, Mitchell, Cooper DeJean—who are capable of turning in All-Pro seasons. Yes, the Eagles have concerns. But they are mostly first-world concerns. I still see the potential for a great defense.
4
Minnesota Vikings

Brian Flores greets players during the first quarter of a preseason game against the New England Patriots
Brian Flores continues to be one of the best “more with less” defensive coaches in the NFL. His Vikings unit finished second in defensive efficiency last season. But Minnesota was the only team to blitz over 40 percent of the time, and it often did so on early downs.
But Flores’s formula could change in 2025. The Vikings lost some pieces in the secondary, but they bolstered their pass rush with vets like Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. And they’re hoping that 2024 first-round pick Dallas Turner can give the pass rush a boost. If Flores feels like he can trust a four-man rush to get home, there’s a chance that we see Flores get creative with his calls without blitzing so much on early downs. Unless Minnesota’s situation at cornerback turns out to be a complete disaster, I don’t see a big dropoff coming for the Vikings. I just have too much trust in Flores, and the Vikings are talented—especially up front.
5
Baltimore Ravens

Malaki Starks drops into coverage against the Indianapolis Colts
They started off shaky last year but steadily improved and looked like one of the NFL’s best defenses by season’s end, finishing sixth in efficiency. During the offseason, the Ravens spent early draft picks on safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. They also added a pair of veteran corners in Chidobe Awuzie and Jaire Alexander.
From defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike to linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens have premier talent at all three levels of their defense. If one of their dart throws at cornerback hits, we could be looking at one of the NFL’s best secondaries. Having said that, the Ravens’ depth is likely to be tested more than it was last year when they had the best injury luck of any defense. Overall, though, I trust Baltimore’s infrastructure, and I trust the talent.
6
Denver Broncos

Pat Surtain II and Joshua Pickett during the fourth quarter of the Broncos’ 30-9 win over the San Francisco 49ers
I feel like I’ve heard some version of “the Broncos could have the best defense in the NFL” roughly 417 times this summer. And they could! I just think there’s a bit more uncertainty than people want to admit. Vance Joseph’s aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme lends itself to some volatility. The Broncos were 30th in defensive efficiency in 2023 before vaulting up to no. 4 last season.
Denver’s big offseason additions were linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga, and defensive back Jahdae Barron, who the team drafted in the first round. Greenlaw played a total of 34 snaps last season for San Francisco, as he missed part of the season while recovering from an Achilles injury before suffering a hamstring injury shortly after he returned. Hufanga has played a total of 17 games over the past two seasons. And Barron is a rookie. All I’m saying here is that there’s definitely some boom-or-bust to this group.
Of course, there’s also plenty to like. The corner group, led by 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II, has a chance to be excellent. The Broncos finished third in pressure rate and first in sack rate last year and are bringing back the key pieces of their pass rush. And they have continuity with Joseph’s scheme. Overall, I see a very good group that could be elite if the offseason moves work out.
7
Chicago Bears

Bears head coach Ben Johnson talks with Jaylon Johnson during an offseason workout
Dennis Allen takes over as Chicago’s defensive coordinator, and I think this unit has a chance to really surprise. The Bears defense was trending up in the second half of the 2023 season, and then things fell apart last year under Matt Eberflus. But I still see a defense that has plenty of talent, and Allen had (for the most part!) an impressive run of coaching good defenses in New Orleans.
Led by Montez Sweat, the Bears finished top-10 in both pressure rate and sack rate last season, and they added vets Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett in free agency. They have a very good linebacker duo and young players with upside in the secondary. The big question here is the status of their top corner, Jaylon Johnson. If you guaranteed me that he would be healthy and ready to go in Week 1, I’d bump the Bears up higher. But Johnson has been sidelined with a leg injury, and if he misses time, it will be tough to perform up to this ranking.
8
New York Jets

Chris Brooks of the Packers is tackled by Sauce Gardner and Tony Adams during a preseason game
Aaron Glenn probably didn’t get enough credit for the job he did coaching a depleted Lions defense last year. No group suffered more injuries, and yet Detroit still finished fifth in defensive efficiency. That’s really, really impressive. Now Glenn is in New York with a different set of players—many of whom were part of last season’s disappointing squad. But there’s plenty of reason to think that the Jets can bounce back.
Like Glenn’s Lions, the Jets were also crushed by injuries last season. They were also quite unlucky with turnovers. Only three defenses gained less expected points added (EPA) on takeaways than the Jets. This is a unit that still has plenty of talent. I wish they were a little deeper up front, but defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is still a cornerstone player. I like the Jets linebackers, and even though cornerback Sauce Gardner is coming off of a down season, he’s still one of the NFL’s best defensive backs. I expect this group to play with energy and look closer to the defense we saw in 2023.
9
Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett warms up during mandatory minicamp
If I did this exercise earlier in the offseason, I would have had the Browns ranked even higher. But in recent weeks, they lost cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to season-ending injuries, and linebacker Jordan Hicks retired. Those losses bumped the Browns down from the “potentially great” tier to the “frisky” tier.
On a down-to-down basis last year, the Browns weren’t bad. They finished the season fourth in defensive success rate. The problem? When they got beat, they really got beat, giving up explosive plays at the second highest rate in the NFL. I’m bullish on this group bouncing back in 2025. Because of Myles Garrett, you know the Browns can rush the passer. Even last season, they had the highest regular-season pressure rate in the NFL. I don’t like the cornerback depth, but when Denzel Ward is on (and reports out of Browns camp are that he’s having a great summer, but he did leave practice on Tuesday with an apparent shoulder injury), he is a very good player. And I trust defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to figure things out. Remember, the Browns had the second-best defense in the NFL in 2023. I don’t think they’ll be that good again, but I see an above-average unit.
10
Pittsburgh Steelers

Joey Porter Jr. and Darius Slay before a preseason game against the Jaguars
It went a little bit under the radar, but quarterback wasn’t their only issue down the stretch last season. The Steelers defense seemed to fall apart any time it faced a formidable opponent. They made some changes in the offseason, starting with trading safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for corner Jalen Ramsey. Pittsburgh also signed veteran corner Darius Slay and drafted defensive lineman Derrick Harmon in the first round.
With T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Keeanu Benton, Harmon, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig, this has the potential to be one of the better fronts in the NFL. But it makes me a little nervous that they have so many key starters—Watt, Heyward, Slay, Ramsey—who are on the wrong side of age 30. Overall, I think this is an above-average group that could outperform this ranking if the vets avoid decline and injuries.
11
Detroit Lions

Aidan Hutchinson before the 2025 Pro Football Hall of Fame game against the Chargers
This is one of the hardest units to project. On one hand, what the Lions did last year (fifth in defensive efficiency!) despite being the most injured defense in the NFL was admirable. On the other hand, the architect of that defense, Aaron Glenn, is now with the New York Jets. Stepping in is first-time defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, who was promoted from outside linebackers coach. Maybe Sheppard will be great! But he’s largely an unknown quantity.
The good news is that the Lions will get Aidan Hutchinson back healthy. Their depth up front could be better after they spent a first-round pick on defensive tackle Tyleik Williams. And they replaced corner Carlton Davis III with D.J. Reed. The Lions are strong at safety, but ultimately how well this defense performs could hinge on the development of second-year corner Terrion Arnold, who was up and down as a rookie. If he plays well, the Lions should once again field one of the NFL’s better defenses. But if Arnold struggles, Detroit’s pass defense could be a serious liability.
12
New England Patriots

Milton Williams before the preseason game between the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings
This was a bad group last year (30th in DVOA), and while it felt like the Patriots defense got crushed by injuries, FTN had them with just about league-average injury luck. One area in which New England could get luckier in 2025 is with turnovers. Last year, the Patriots defense finished 31st in EPA gained on takeaways. That’s the type of thing that generally regresses to the mean from one year to the next.
From a personnel perspective, there are a couple of areas that could be real strengths here. The duo of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore at defensive tackle could be highly disruptive. And if healthy, Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III offer a pair of top-level corners. From a coaching perspective, Mike Vrabel’s reputation as a defensive mastermind probably outpaces his actual track record. In six seasons with the Titans, Vrabel produced an above-average defense just once. I expect a jump. But the Patriots probably need one more offseason of talent upgrades to go up another tier.
13
Indianapolis Colts

Julian Hicks of the Packers makes a catch against Charvarius Ward
The Colts made a coaching change, going from defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to Lou Anarumo. The hipsters love Anarumo, but in six seasons with the Bengals, he produced a defense that finished in the top half of the league just once.
Anarumo does have more talent to work with in Indianapolis than he had last year in Cincinnati. The Colts have a solid front, and they added corner Charvarius Ward and safety Cam Bynum in free agency. The mix of crafty veterans and young players with upside is at least somewhat intriguing. This looks like a competent, professional group that should keep the Colts in games if their offense can be competitive (big if!).
14
Buffalo Bills

Montrell Washington of the Giants is tackled by Christian Benford during a preseason game
Bills fans should take notice of how the Chiefs offense performed against Buffalo in the AFC championship game compared to how it performed against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. In the AFC title game, the Chiefs produced a 99th percentile game in terms of offensive success rate. In the Super Bowl against the Eagles, the Chiefs dropped down to a 20th percentile success rate (it was first percentile through the first three quarters before garbage time). To win big in the playoffs, you need a defense that can offer at least some resistance against elite quarterbacks. But the Bills, year in and year out, have been unable to meet that threshold. During the regular season, you can expect a scrappy, overachieving defense. But in the playoffs, the Bills usually get exposed.
Buffalo has invested heavily in its pass rush, and while the Bills have a bunch of good players, they lack that elite difference-maker who can wreck a game. The Bills took a flier on Joey Bosa in free agency, but he’s averaged fewer than 10 games per season over the past three years because of injuries. And they have a big hole at the second corner spot opposite Christian Benford, who has been excellent. There’s still enough here to field a solid defense, but if Buffalo is finally going to get over the hump in the playoffs, it needs this unit to produce different results in January.
15
Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Jones looks on during the Chiefs-Cardinals preseason game
We mostly know what we’re getting with this group. The Chiefs have finished from seventh to 14th in defensive DVOA in each of the past three seasons. And they’re mostly running it back in 2025. Kansas City lost safety Justin Reid, along with a couple of defensive linemen, in free agency. But they’ll still count on defensive tackle Chris Jones to wreck games, and Trent McDuffie remains one of the NFL’s better defensive backs. It seems like a safe bet to count on Steve Spagnuolo to get the most out of the talent he has here.
16
Los Angeles Chargers

Jesse Minter during warmups before a preseason game between the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Chargers
It’s possible that Jesse Minter is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL. That’s what it looked like last year.
Los Angeles did a nice job last season of developing young players like linebacker Daiyan Henley and cornerback Tarheeb Still. It has productive veterans like edge defender Khalil Mack and safety Derwin James. But it lost some role players up front, and overall, this looks like a pretty average group in terms of overall talent. Minter will have to work his magic, and the coaches will have to do an exceptional job of developing their young talent to significantly outperform this ranking.
17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Todd Bowles watches the action on the field during a preseason game between the Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year marked the worst performance (16th in DVOA) for a Bucs defense since Todd Bowles got there in 2019. I don’t suspect we’ll see a major schematic or personnel change in 2025. The team signed veteran Haason Reddick to help with its pass rush. And the Bucs spent a couple of Day 2 draft picks on defensive backs Jacob Parrish and Benjamin Morrison. Overall, though, they’re mostly running it back. We know what we’re getting from a Bowles defense. The Bucs look like a high-floor group, but I would be surprised if they make any kind of serious leap this season.
18
New York Giants

Abdul Carter before a preseason game against the New York Jets
What expectations are fair for Abdul Carter? He’s looked incredible this summer, and many are predicting that he’ll step in and wreck games. I hate being the wet-blanket guy (OK, who are we kidding—I’m perfectly comfortable in this role), but that doesn’t typically happen with rookies. If we look at all the rookie pass rushers who have been drafted in the top five since 2000, the average production is 5.7 sacks across a season. Only five—Julius Peppers, Bradley Chubb, Von Miller, Joey Bosa, and Ndamukong Suh—produced double-digit sacks as rookies. Could Carter join that group? Sure! But it’s not the most likely scenario.
Having said that, there’s obvious upside with this pass rush, given that Carter is joining a group that includes Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns. The Giants will need that group to be dominant because of the questions they have at cornerback. This was a defense that finished 28th in DVOA last season. A leap to competency seems reasonable.
19
Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs participates in drills with Keisean Nixon (left) and Xavier McKinney (right)
I’ll be honest: I don’t fully trust what I saw from them last year. The Packers finished seventh in defensive DVOA, but I always sensed a sort of fragility with them. They were third in the NFL in EPA gained from turnovers. In isolation, there’s nothing wrong with that. Getting takeaways is great! But they also finished 13th in defensive success rate, which measures how consistent a unit is on a down-to-down basis. That should be at least a little concerning. Additionally, Green Bay had the seventh-best injury luck. The Packers’ depth could get tested a bit more in 2025.
From a personnel standpoint, the Packers have invested in their pass rush, but this was mostly an average group last year, finishing 19th in pressure rate. Green Bay has athletic linebackers and a terrific playmaking safety in Xavier McKinney. Overall, this looks like a competent group. I’m just skeptical that it’ll be as good as it was last year.
20
San Francisco 49ers

Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh with the defense in the locker room during halftime of a preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders
What do you got, Robert Saleh? He took a bad Jets defense and helped turn it into a top-quartile unit in 2022 and 2023 before getting fired five games into last season. Now Saleh is back in San Francisco to take over a defense that has a couple of superstars (Fred Warner, Nick Bosa) paired with a bunch of question marks.
We know that Saleh prefers to rely on a dominant four-man pass rush. But aside from Bosa, he just might not have the pieces to play that way. The 49ers will be hoping that some of their rookies—they spent six picks on the defensive side of the ball—can contribute right away, but as we know, that’s far from a given. On the bright side, last year’s 49ers defense probably wasn’t quite as bad as its reputation, finishing 13th in DVOA. And that was even though it had the third-worst injury luck of any defense. I don’t expect it to be great, but hovering around average seems attainable.
21
Dallas Cowboys

Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs talk with John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens before a preseason game
It’s tough to know what to make of this group. The Cowboys (for now!) have one of the most disruptive defensive players in the NFL in Micah Parsons, and they were smart to bring back defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa before he hit free agency. The pass rush was a strength last year, as the Cowboys ranked fourth in pressure rate and second in sack rate in the regular season. But beyond that? There’s not a whole lot to like about this unit.
Matt Eberflus is taking over for Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator, and Zimmer’s units generally performed to the exact level of his talent. And the talent at corner for Dallas is concerning, with Trevon Diggs and rookie Shavon Revel Jr. still recovering from injuries. There’s no reason to think that the Cowboys are prepared to solve their issues stopping the run up front. It’s possible that this group will start to play well once guys get back to being healthy, but going into the season, there’s just a lot of uncertainty.
22
Las Vegas Raiders

Pete Carroll walks the sidelines in the second quarter of a preseason game against the 49ers
Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham probably delivered one of the more underappreciated coaching performances in the NFL last season. The Raiders defense had the second-worst injury luck, and they finished only 27th in EPA gained on takeaways. They had talent deficiencies at all three levels. Yet they still finished a respectable 18th in defensive DVOA. Now Graham will have to do it again.
Pete Carroll is taking over as the Raiders head coach. During his final years in Seattle, Carroll just had a hard time figuring out his defense. He tried to evolve and bring on coordinators with different schemes, but nothing really worked. I love the decision to retain Graham. Not only did he do more with less last year, but he also coached a top-10 defense in 2023.
The talent here is unimpressive (and I’m being kind!). Aside from Maxx Crosby, it’s hard to identify players who will likely perform at an above-average level. The coaching will have to be on point. Graham and Carroll will really need to figure out their strengths and weaknesses and put their players in positions to succeed. The ceiling is limited because of the personnel, but I’ll trust the coaching to get the Raiders to competency.
23
Arizona Cardinals

Wide receiver Key’Shawn Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs and defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson of the Arizona Cardinals dive for a loose football during the first half of a preseason game
Two things can be true:
- The Cardinals outperformed their talent last year.
- They still did not have close to a good defense.
The Cardinals faced one of the hardest schedules of opposing offenses last year. They tried to do more with less, but at the end of the day, Arizona ranked 31st in defensive success rate. What does that mean? It was easier for offenses to produce a positive play against the Cardinals than against any other team except for the Panthers.
Arizona loaded up on veteran defensive linemen in the offseason, adding Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Calais Campbell. It drafted defensive tackle Walter Nolen in the first round and took a flier on corner Will Johnson in the second. This group should be better, but a leap beyond mediocrity would surprise me.
24
Los Angeles Rams

Rams linebacker Jared Verse (right) huddles with teammates at the end of a training camp session
The Rams have one move: pressure the quarterback! And they’re pretty good at it. Los Angeles has invested heavily in its defensive line. Jared Verse had a terrific rookie season, and, if we include the postseason, the Rams produced the fourth-best pressure rate in the NFL last year. But overall, this was not a good defense last season (26th in DVOA). Of course, it didn’t help that this was one of three teams to face a backup quarterback less than 10 percent of the time. The lack of talent at corner will show up against good offenses again this season, and the run defense is below average. We’ll see how far the young pass rush can take the Rams, but results that are similar to those from last season would not surprise me.
25
Tennessee Titans

T’Vondre Sweat returns a fumble and stiff-arms Alex Cappa of the Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee’s defense was surprisingly competitive last year (17th in DVOA), even though its offense was a complete trainwreck. But we have to take its performance with a grain of salt. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell has pointed out, the Titans defense faced backup quarterbacks at the highest rate in the NFL.
The Titans have a couple of disruptive defensive tackles in veteran Jeffery Simmons and second-year player T’Vondre Sweat. But in the secondary, no. 1 corner L’Jarius Sneed only just started to practice this week after recovering from a knee injury. I don’t think that the Titans defense will be that good. But I also don’t think that they’ll be that bad. Everything here just kind of screams mediocrity.
26
Miami Dolphins

Minkah Fitzpatrick catches the ball during Miami Dolphins training camp
Let’s play a game of “How big of an NFL sicko are you?” Quick, without cheating: Can you name any of the Dolphins’ projected starting cornerbacks? I’ll wait.
…
Did anybody say Storm Duck, Kendall Sheffield, or Mike Hilton? Yeah, I didn’t think so.
First-time defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver did an admirable job last season, but the Dolphins lost a bunch of veterans from that unit heading into this season, including corner Jalen Ramsey, safety Jevon Holland, and defensive lineman Calais Campbell. They traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick and used a first-round pick on defensive tackle Kenneth Grant. The Dolphins have some talented players up front in Jaelan Phillips, Zach Sieler, Bradley Chubb, and Chop Robinson. But that pass rush will have to be dominant to make up for the deficiencies on the back end.
27
New Orleans Saints

Brandon Staley on the sideline during the second half of a preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars
Brandon Staley joins the Saints as Kellen Moore’s defensive coordinator. In his three seasons as the Chargers’ head coach, Staley’s defenses ranked from 21st to 26th in DVOA. And that is probably the right range to start with for New Orleans. Staley still needs to prove that he can produce an above-average unit when he’s not working with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, like he did when he was with the Rams.
In terms of personnel, the Saints made marginal moves in the offseason—most notably, adding veteran safety Justin Reid. The pass rush was mediocre (21st in pressure rate) in 2024, and that seems unlikely to change. The secondary has a chance to be decent, but overall, it’s hard to see a high ceiling for this defense.
28
Washington Commanders

Javon Kinlaw (left) drills with Jer’Zhan Newton during day one of training camp
I have a lot of concerns about this group. Last year, the Commanders finished 24th in EPA per drive, and that was even though they faced backup quarterbacks 35 percent of the time (the fourth-highest percentage of any team). The Commanders also had the sixth-best injury luck and faced the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
I’m having a hard time seeing how they could be better this year. Signing defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw was one of the biggest head-scratchers of free agency. Counting on corner Trey Amos to be good as a rookie is risky. And Von Miller is 36 years old. This defense will have to feast on turnovers and negative plays because I don’t think it’ll be sound on a down-to-down basis.
29
Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan talks with Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich during training camp
Scenarios in which they’ll field a good defense this year:
- Opponents fumble a lot, and the Falcons lead the NFL in takeaways.
- Their rookie class is the best in NFL history.
- Jeff Ulbrich turns into Vic Fangio.
I think that’s it? This defense mostly stank last year (29th in DVOA). It finished with the NFL’s second-worst pressure rate and is counting on rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to provide an upgrade. Maybe that will happen, but it’s not likely. Ulbrich will be tasked with doing more with less, and he’ll have to show that he’s up for it. The Falcons have a couple of talented pieces in the secondary in safety Jessie Bates and corner A.J. Terrell. But overall, this defense probably needs another offseason of upgrades before we take it seriously.
30
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Ted Karras, and Orlando Brown Jr. before a preseason 2025 game against the Philadelphia Eagles
I have long made the argument that a team with a great offense and bad defense can usually land a playoff berth. But last year’s Bengals were the exception. When the defense is as bad as Cincinnati’s was in 2024, it’s hard to win close games. Cincinnati made a coaching change in the offseason, replacing coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden, who’s jumping to the NFL from Notre Dame. As mentioned above in the Colts section, Anarumo produced an above-average defense just once in six seasons. Having said that, talent was and continues to be the big issue for this group. The Bengals finished 27th in efficiency last year, and what makes that especially alarming is that they faced backup quarterbacks at the third-highest rate of any team.
There aren’t a whole lot of reasons to feel optimistic about a major improvement. Since 2022, the Bengals have spent 10 picks on defensive players in the first three rounds of the draft, and the bottom line is that they need those young players to be productive. For our purposes, we’ll assume that edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who is unhappy with his contract, won’t miss regular-season games. If first-round pick Shemar Stewart can contribute right away, maybe the Bengals pass rush can have some juice. But ultimately, their success might come down to whether the young defensive backs—Cam Taylor-Britt, DJ Turner II, Dax Hill—can perform. If I were Golden, I’d try to manufacture turnovers and negative plays. That’s a high-variance style of play, but it’s just hard to believe that this will be a sound unit on a down-to-down basis.
31
Carolina Panthers

Tre’von Moehrig in coverage during a preseason game against the Cleveland Browns
The case for the 2025 Panthers defense being better: It can’t get worse. It was legitimately horrible at everything last year: defending the run, defending the pass, coverage, pressuring the quarterback, limiting explosive plays. You name the category, and there’s almost definitely a 30, 31, or 32 next to the Panthers’ name in the rankings.
So why will this year be different? Well, getting defensive tackle Derrick Brown back (he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 last year) should help. And overall, the Panthers had the fifth-worst injury luck of any defense last year, so maybe they’ll stay healthier this season. They added more bodies up front in free agency. None of the veterans they brought in are true difference makers, but now they have more depth. And they paid to add safety Tre’Von Moehrig, who’s coming off a good season. Have I convinced you that they'll be significantly better than last season? Yeah, I didn’t think so. This seems like marginal improvement for a very bad defense.
32
Jacksonville Jaguars

Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks on during a preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers
Because everyone was so focused on Trevor Lawrence’s struggles last year, we probably didn’t spend enough time pointing out how embarrassing the Jaguars’ defensive performance was. There was literally nothing that this group did well. It was bad on early downs and late downs. It couldn’t rush the passer or cover. Opponents could string together long drives or hit explosives against them. Just ugly stuff all around.
Liam Coen is taking over as head coach, and he hired perhaps the least well-known defensive coordinator in the NFL: Anthony Campanile. Campanile previously spent time as a position coach with both the Dolphins and Packers and is coordinating a defense for the first time in his career. Maybe he’ll be good! But we’re talking about a complete unknown here.
The Jaguars signed veteran slot corner Jourdan Lewis, and we’ll see how much defense Travis Hunter plays as a rookie. But for the most part, the Jaguars are running it back with a lot of the same personnel. One area where they could benefit from some natural regression to the mean: turnovers. The Jaguars defense had the lowest EPA from turnovers in the NFL last season. Bottom line: I think they’re going to be very bad again.