Last season, teams like the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers surprised pretty much everyone [raises hand] by producing two of the best offenses in the NFL, and they rode those offenses to playoff berths in the NFC. Meanwhile, teams like the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and New England Patriots produced dreadful offenses, and that led to getting a head start on draft prep.
Offensive efficiency generally leads to team success (notice I said generally, Bengals fans!). So which offenses might surprise us this year? And which teams should be wary of taking a step back? Here are my preseason projections, ranked no. 1 to 32.
Statistics from this article are from TruMedia or Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
1
Buffalo Bills
For the Gen Zers, I’ll keep it brief since I’m sure you have much more important things to do: Josh Allen equals elite offense. Are we good here?
OK, for the rest of you: The Bills have finished top three in offensive efficiency in each of the past three seasons. They have changed receivers, running backs, and offensive coordinators, and it hasn’t mattered that much. We can say pretty definitively that as long as Allen is healthy, the Bills will have a great offense. He is a dual-threat monster and one of the most durable quarterbacks in the NFL.
There are only two things here that make me question whether the Bills can be quite as good as they were last year. One, they turned the ball over on just 4 percent of their offensive drives last season. That’s the lowest rate of any offense in the past 25 years! On one hand, that’s great. On the other, such turnover avoidance is difficult to sustain year to year. The second thing is that the Bills got tremendous injury luck up front. They were one of two teams last season whose offensive line played more than 800 snaps together. Injuries are impossible to predict, but it’s possible that Buffalo’s O-line depth will get tested more in 2025. Now that I’ve said that, we just have too much evidence that Allen is going to figure it out. I think that the Bills will field another juggernaut this year.
2
Baltimore Ravens
On occasion, when I am trying to procrastinate doing actual work, I’ll just go to Lamar Jackson’s Pro Football Reference page and start laughing. He had 41 passing touchdowns and four interceptions and ran for 915 yards last season! It should not be possible to hit all those marks. According to expected points added (EPA) per drive, the Ravens had the NFL’s best offense last year, and they’re pretty much bringing everyone back. Among the 12 players who logged at least 400 offensive snaps for the Ravens in 2024, 11 will return (guard Patrick Mekari is the only exception).
If you think that the Ravens should be ranked first here, I can’t argue with you. But something to keep in mind: They had the best injury luck of any offense in the NFL last season and the best injury luck of any team since 2017, according to FTN’s data. In other words, it seems likely that they’ll face at least a little more adversity and will need their backups to contribute in 2025 in a way they didn’t last season. I’m predicting a slight step back, but this still looks like an elite unit.
3
San Francisco 49ers
Surprise! We can all agree that they had the year from hell last season, right? Star running back Christian McCaffrey played in just four games, and the backup running backs kept getting hurt, too. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk played in just seven games. Left tackle Trent Williams played in 10. First-round pick WR Ricky Pearsall was shot in an alleged armed robbery attempt before the season even started. And quarterback Brock Purdy played through a shoulder injury, missing two total games. Add it all up, and the 49ers had the second-worst injury luck of any offense in the NFL. Yet they still finished … ninth (!) in offensive efficiency. There are organizations that would throw a parade if they finished ninth!
In the 2023 season, the 49ers were first in offensive efficiency, and a year before that, they were fifth. I see enough here to forecast a bounce back. Purdy didn’t get the usual benefits of a Kyle Shanahan offense last year. He had to push the ball downfield and throw into tight windows. The 49ers didn’t rely on play-action or yards after the catch. And guess what? Purdy acquitted himself pretty well. He injured his shoulder in Week 11, but through 10 weeks, he ranked third in EPA per pass play, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think that the 49ers will be getting all the way back to 2023 form (and yes, I have seen their troubling injury reports this summer). And I have concerns about their offensive line and wide receiver depth. But if this unit has just a little more luck than it did last season, I see an offense that can be really good.
4
Green Bay Packers
Does Matt LaFleur get enough credit for being one of the best offensive coaches in the NFL? I say no. Take a look at where the Packers have ranked in offensive efficiency during his six seasons as head coach:
Packers' Offensive Efficiency
Last year, LaFleur completely changed his offense when backup quarterback Malik Willis had to start two games (and the Packers won both contests). He coached Jordan Love through three different injuries. And Green Bay’s pass catchers had the fifth most drops in the NFL. Yet the Packers still finished with a top-five offense. Now, the Packers didn’t change the roster much going into 2025, outside of adding guard Aaron Banks in free agency and drafting wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round. There will always be some boom-or-bust to Love’s game, but even if Green Bay just shows minimal improvement, we’re looking at one of the league’s best offenses.
5
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase runs after catching the ball in a preseason match against the Eagles
Am I worried about their offensive line? OF COURSE I’M WORRIED ABOUT THEIR OFFENSIVE LINE! But the line wasn’t very good last season, and the Bengals finished fifth in efficiency. It wasn’t very good in 2022, and they finished fourth. Let me put this another way: Joe Burrow in his prime plus Ja’Marr Chase in his prime plus Tee Higgins in his prime equals great offense. It really is that simple.
We know how the Bengals will operate. They’ll put the ball in Burrow’s hands and let him cook. No offense passed the ball at a higher rate than the Bengals last season. On early downs, when the score was close, they passed 64.5 percent of the time. The difference between them and the no. 2 Vikings was the same as the difference between the Vikings and the no. 16 Patriots. This is a formula that works when you have a great quarterback and great wide receivers. Burrow can get the ball out quickly, and he’s never been afraid to attack one-on-one matchups with Chase and Higgins. The Bengals didn’t miss the playoffs last season because of their offense, and this group will be a strength once again.
6
Detroit Lions
Roughly 95 percent of all Jared Goff analysis falls into one of two buckets:
- Goff is the product of his surroundings OR
- Goff doesn’t get enough credit for what he does for Detroit’s offense.
Well, the 2025 season should give us a useful data point in determining which argument holds more weight. We know that Goff can quarterback a high-level offense. The Lions have finished third, fifth, and seventh in offensive efficiency over the past three years. The Rams, with Goff as their starting QB, finished eighth in 2017 and second in 2018. That’s right: Goff has quarterbacked a top-quartile offense in five of his past eight seasons. That’s not nothing!
But we can also agree that he has been blessed with two of the better schemers and play callers in the NFL in Sean McVay and Ben Johnson. Johnson is off to Chicago, meaning that the task of keeping the Lions offense rolling now falls to new coordinator John Morton, who came over from the Broncos. (He previously served as a senior assistant in Detroit in 2022.) But it’s not just a coordinator change. Lions center Frank Ragnow retired, and veteran guard Kevin Zeitler left in free agency. That’s a big deal, considering that the offensive line has been Detroit’s superpower in recent years.
Another thing to keep in mind with the Lions is that their offensive depth could be tested. They had the NFL’s second-healthiest offense last season. The way I see it, a drop-off seems inevitable. But the question is: How big of a drop-off are we talking about? They’ve still got great skill position players like Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown and two very good offensive tackles. Some stumbles early in the season would not surprise me, but I’ll choose to believe in the coaching and the infrastructure. Eventually, the Lions will find their footing.
7
Philadelphia Eagles
At this point, we have a pretty good idea of where the Eagles offense will rank based on their recent history:
Eagles' EPA/Drive
Metrics like DVOA that try to account for strength of schedule have rated the Eagles lower (they ranked 13th last season) because they faced the easiest slate (by far) of opposing defenses last season. But we know how this group wants to operate. They’ll run the ball and run the ball and run the ball some more. If opponents really want to load up to stop the run (see: Steve Spagnuolo’s game plan in the Super Bowl), then Jalen Hurts will take his one-on-one shots to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. It is a true “pick your poison” operation.
So what’s different this year? The Eagles will have at least one new offensive lineman, with Tyler Steen replacing Mekhi Becton at right guard. And Pro Bowl left guard Landon Dickerson could miss time or be less effective as he recovers from a knee injury. The Eagles also have a new play caller, with Kevin Patullo replacing Kellen Moore. In terms of regression, the big thing to keep an eye on is turnovers. After a flurry of giveaways early in the season, Hurts prioritized protecting the ball over everything else. As a result, the Eagles saw just 5.6 percent of their drives result in turnovers over the whole season—the second-lowest rate in the NFL and a number that could be hard to sustain in 2025.
The bottom line: There’s just too much talent here for the Eagles offense not to be good, unless they get crushed by injuries. If they can find more consistency in the passing game, they could easily outperform this ranking.
8
Kansas City Chiefs
I believe that we have seen the floor for a Patrick Mahomes–led offense. The Chiefs were tough to watch last year. (Yes, I know that they went 15-2 and made it to the Super Bowl.) It was clear that they had an offensive tackle problem and a wide receiver problem. As a result, Mahomes’s average pass went just 6.4 yards downfield—that ranked 34th out of 35 quarterbacks, ahead of only Gardner Minshew. The Chiefs produced an explosive play rate of just 8.9 percent, which ranked 29th. This was a sad, sad development. Mahomes’s talents used to be on full display every week when he was chucking the ball downfield and making those 1 percent throws. Now, he has been relegated to a checkdown, quick game, run-pass option robot.
This, of course, is not Mahomes’s fault. He is doing what’s asked of him, given the constraints of his supporting cast. The question is: Will 2025 be different? The case for answering yes is that the Chiefs could have an answer at left tackle in first-round pick Josh Simmons, and while wide receiver Rashee Rice will likely be facing a suspension at some point after pleading guilty for his role in a serious car crash in 2024, they should have him for most of the season. It’s also reasonable to expect wide receiver Xavier Worthy to be better in year two.
But those things are not a given. With Simmons, we have to acknowledge that rookie performance is unpredictable, and it’s unwise to declare a draft pick to be a success based on what we see in training camp and the preseason. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs traded away one of their best offensive linemen, Joe Thuney. I’m not convinced that the net result will be an improved offensive line. Meanwhile, the Chiefs got a productive season from Rice in 2023, but even then, they still had many of the same issues with a lack of explosive plays that we saw last year. The Chiefs have ranked eighth in offensive efficiency in back-to-back years, and I’m not sure that their proposed solutions will result in much of a change in 2025.
9
Washington Commanders
There are legitimate reasons to fade the Commanders. Jayden Daniels was incredible last year, but as we saw with C.J. Stroud, young quarterbacks’ development is not linear. Sometimes, they take a step back. Meanwhile, play caller Kliff Kingsbury has to show that he has a plan B now that defenses have had an offseason to study Washington’s scheme. Last season, the Commanders had the highest fourth-down EPA of any offense in the past 25 years. That’s not something you can count on from one year to the next.
Again, those are all valid concerns. But you know what? I watched Daniels pretty much every week last season, and I think he’s incredible. He didn’t have a great offensive line or a great group of pass catchers, and he made it work—both with his arm and with his legs. Maybe he’ll take a step back in his sophomore season. But I won’t overthink things and predict definitively that that’s what we’ll see. The Commanders traded for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and will try first-round pick Josh Conerly at right tackle. The offensive line has a chance to be a top-10 unit. And while new Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Sr.’s best days are most certainly behind him, he at least has a chance to be an upgrade over what the Commanders were working with last year. (For our purposes, we’ll assume that Terry McLaurin is on the field in Week 1.)
Sometimes, you have to ignore reason and trust your eyes. The Commanders had the sixth-ranked offense in the NFL last season. Maybe they’ll get hit with a little regression, but I’ll go ahead and bet that Daniels will carry this unit once again.
10
Dallas Cowboys
When Dak Prescott has been on the field for the Cowboys, they’ve consistently produced above-average offenses. Prescott missed nine games last season and the Cowboys missed the playoffs, but in 2023, the Cowboys offense ranked ninth. In 2022 (when Prescott missed five games), they were 14th. And in 2021, they were fourth. Having said all that, the offense was not good last year in the eight games that Prescott played. From Weeks 1 to 9, he ranked 26th in dropback success rate. It’s entirely possible that those struggles will continue.
But it’s more likely, in my opinion, that Prescott will settle in somewhere between the guy who had a tremendous 2023 and the guy who struggled last year. The Cowboys were absurdly thin at wide receiver last season behind CeeDee Lamb, and while I’m not here to pretend that George Pickens is Randy Moss, I do think that on paper Pickens should provide a nice complement to Lamb on the outside. The offensive line is a question mark, and you won’t find anyone arguing that new head coach Brian Schottenheimer is an offensive savant. But there’s enough here that I like (mostly Prescott and Lamb!) to project an efficient passing game and a top-10 offense.
11
Los Angeles Rams
They might be the hardest team to project right now. Matthew Stafford has been with the Rams for four seasons. He’s started 10-plus games three times. All three of those seasons, the Rams have produced a top-10 offense. This should be simple: Sean McVay plus Stafford plus Puka Nacua plus Davante Adams should equal another top-10 offense. The only problem? Stafford was sidelined for several weeks with a back issue this summer, and he suited up for practice for the first time on Monday.
But it’s not just the back issue. There were some signs of decline for Stafford going back to last season. Remember when McVay rested his starters in Week 18, even though the Rams had playoff seeding on the line? That seemed to be part of a strategic plan to take care of their aging quarterback. And then in the offseason, the Rams gave Stafford permission to seek a trade. I know a big part of that was financial, but would they have been willing to go that far if they were hellbent on bringing Stafford back eventually?
When Stafford was pressured last season, he ranked 28th out of 36 quarterbacks in EPA per pass play. On snaps where the Rams did not use play-action, Stafford ranked 21st in EPA per pass play. In other words, he could be at the stage of his career where he needs specific conditions to be effective. Stafford’s A game is still as good as almost any passer in the NFL. I’m just not sure how often he’s going to be able to deliver that A-game over the course of a 17-game season. By the way, I haven’t even mentioned that the Rams have a shaky offensive tackle situation. I hate to doubt the infrastructure here, and I do see a high ceiling. But in case you can’t tell, I have concerns!
12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We have five examples of Baker Mayfield starting at least 14 games in a season in his career. Here’s a look at how those offenses have performed:
Baker Mayfield's Starts
In all five, his teams have finished somewhere between seventh and 21st. Mayfield offers a high floor, and in the right surroundings, he can get you to a top-quartile offense. The question is: Do the Bucs have the right pieces around Mayfield this season to hit a high ceiling?
That’s where things get a little tricky. The Bucs lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Jaguars, and this was a highly schemed operation last year. What do I mean by that? Mayfield’s average pass traveled just 6.8 yards past the line of scrimmage, which ranked 32nd out of 36 quarterbacks. Mayfield had to throw into tight windows just 10.5 percent of the time, which ranked 35th. This isn’t a knock on Mayfield! We should applaud coaches who make their quarterback’s life easier. But we also need to see if new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s pass game coordinator last year, can keep things rolling.
As for the supporting cast, the Bucs are dealing with injuries to two key players: left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin. The Godwin injury is probably less concerning, considering that the team has Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan and also spent a first-round pick on Emeka Egbuka. But potentially not having Wirfs (an All-Pro and one of the NFL’s best linemen) early in the season would be a big deal. There’s a lot to like here, but just enough uncertainty to scare me off from putting them much higher.
13
Arizona Cardinals
The hipsters are once again predicting a big leap, but I need to see it to believe it. Kyler Murray has been in the NFL for six seasons, and the Cardinals have never had an offense that finished in the top 10 in DVOA (though they came close last year at no. 11). Don’t get me wrong: They had their moments in 2024 where they performed like an above-average, functional unit. Tight end Trey McBride is great. Maybe rocked-up Marvin Harrison Jr. makes the leap. And I like the run game. It would not shock me if in Week 8 we were talking about the Cardinals as one of the NFL’s better offenses. But guess what? That’s happened before, and they can just never sustain it for an entire season. Maybe that changes in 2025, but I won’t be the person predicting it.
14
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud throws a pass during a preseason game against the Carolina Panthers
Let’s not dance around it: Their offense last year was a complete embarrassment. The Texans ranked 31st in success rate, ahead of only the Cleveland Browns. That’s flat-out unacceptable when C.J. Stroud is your quarterback. So will things be different this year? Well, maybe.
The case for improvement is that the Texans made an offensive coordinator change, bringing in Nick Caley from the Rams. Maybe by the end of the season we’ll be looking at Caley as one of the brightest offensive minds in football, and the Texans will be a completely transformed unit. Of course, he’s never been an offensive coordinator before, so any optimism here requires a bit of a leap of faith. Along with the coaching last year, the Texans’ biggest issue was a leaky offensive line. They made a change at offensive line coach, traded away left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and brought in a bunch of vets in free agency. The only problem? Those vets don’t have great track records, so the offensive line very well could stink once again.
But if Caley is good and if the offensive line can be closer to league average, the Texans have a real chance of outperforming this ranking. I will take everybody’s Stroud stock. Last year was a clear case of a young quarterback developing bad habits because he was in a bad situation. Nico Collins is a clear no. 1 wide receiver. Christian Kirk is a nice complement, and the Texans spent a couple of Day 2 draft picks on wide receivers. There are enough pass-catching options to give Stroud a chance at a big bounce-back season—if the protection can hold up.
15
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix’s superpower as a rookie was avoiding negative plays. He was tied for the fifth-lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays, as charted by Pro Football Focus. And he was sacked at the sixth-lowest rate. Sean Payton wanted Nix to give the offense (and the team!) a chance, and Nix did just that, with Denver earning a wild-card berth. Offensively, the Broncos ranked 16th in efficiency—a respectable ranking for any offense that’s starting a rookie quarterback.
But now Payton is telling anyone who wants to listen that the Broncos are ready to take the next step into being an actual contender. Such a leap hinges on how much more Payton is willing to put on Nix’s plate, and how Nix responds. Two areas to keep an eye on: how Nix performs when he’s pressured, and how he performs when the opponent knows the Broncos have to pass. Like I mentioned, Nix did a good job of avoiding negative plays. But when he was pressured, he didn’t make a lot of positive plays either, ranking 29th out of 36 quarterbacks in EPA per pass play. And on third and fourth downs (obvious passing situations), he ranked 26th in EPA per pass play. This offense should have a high floor, and if Nix can improve in a couple of those key areas, the Broncos could really have something.
16
Las Vegas Raiders
The easiest thing to do here is look at how the Seahawks offense performed over the last three years with Geno Smith. They ranked between 12th and 18th all three seasons. That seems like a good starting range for the 2025 Raiders. Smith’s wide receivers won’t be as good in Vegas, but he does have tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty. His offensive line was always an issue in Seattle, and the Raiders group is a question mark going into the season.
I think this offense has a chance. Pete Carroll wants to run the ball, create explosive plays in the passing game, and avoid turnovers. Can new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly deliver a scheme that accomplishes those goals? The last time Kelly was in the NFL was in 2016 as head coach of the 49ers, and there he struggled to find a Plan B after his initial success with the Eagles. I’m not sure that the Raiders offense is going to be good, but I do think they can be interesting.
17
Minnesota Vikings
I trust head coach Kevin O’Connell to put J.J. McCarthy in position to succeed. Having said that, I must point out that this offense wasn’t the juggernaut last year that some perceived it to be. It was solid. And it certainly overachieved with Sam Darnold. But it was 15th in DVOA and 15th in EPA per drive.
What I’m trying to say is this: There’s a chance that this offense actually improves in 2025. That’s not the most likely scenario, but it also wouldn’t be out of nowhere. The Vikings this offseason aggressively addressed the interior of their offensive line, which had been a weakness. O-line guru Brandon Thorn now ranks the Vikings as a top-five offensive line. Between O’Connell, Justin Jefferson, and the line, this should be a nice environment for an inexperienced starting quarterback. Some natural regression to the mean could also benefit Minnesota. Last year, they ranked 25th in EPA lost on turnovers, and the offense had the league’s seventh-worst injury luck. Maybe they’ll get a little luckier in those areas in 2025. McCarthy is a complete wild card, so there’s plenty of variance here. But I’ll be honest: I was tempted to rank the Vikings even higher.
18
Los Angeles Chargers
I struggle to find a legitimate reason why they’ll be better this season after finishing 12th in DVOA last year. They are worse at offensive tackle with Rashawn Slater being out for the season, and once again they have question marks with the interior of their offensive line. At wide receiver, Ladd McConkey had a terrific rookie season, but aside from him, the Chargers are looking at second-round pick Tre Harris and late-career Keenan Allen. The median season for wide receivers taken in the second round over the last 10 years is 485 yards. Allen’s had a great career, but he’s 33 years old. Maybe rookie running back Omarion Hampton will be amazing, but again, do we trust that the offensive line is going to open up holes for him? I do not.
They’re also likely looking at some regression to the mean with giveaways. The Chargers turned the ball over on just 4.4 percent of their possessions last year—the lowest rate in the NFL. It’ll be tough to hit that mark again this season. Justin Herbert gives them a relatively high floor, but it’s hard for me to see the Chargers offense making a real leap.
19
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. throws a pass as Kirk Cousins looks on during Atlanta Falcons training camp
I am usually the person making fun of everyone else for buying into the Falcons. But lean in here, I’ve got a little secret: I think they might be undervalued this year! There were obvious ups and downs last season with Kirk Cousins and then eventually Michael Penix Jr. But when the dust settled at the end of the year, the Falcons had performed like a respectable offense. They were eighth in success rate and sixth in explosive play rate. I’m not saying it was perfect, but I think there are some good pieces here to work with: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and a competent offensive line.
Listen, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I know how Penix is going to perform. But he didn’t look overmatched in a small sample last year. The Falcons can try more things with him than they were able to with a banged-up Cousins. Some examples: Cousins used play-action on a league-low 14.2 percent of his pass plays last year, and he threw deep at a bottom-five rate. It’s hard to build an offense with those limitations, and like I said, the Falcons were still competent. Maybe this will end up looking stupid, but I really think Atlanta’s offense has a chance to be a pleasant surprise.
20
Jacksonville Jaguars
Is this the year that we settle all of the Trevor Lawrence debates? Probably not. I can just see it being 2029 and we’re still talking about his play caller or offensive line or supporting cast. But I do think we will learn a lot this season. Lawrence has a play caller in Liam Coen who maximized the Bucs’ talent last year as Tampa’s offensive coordinator. Lawrence also has a legit no. 1 wide receiver in Brian Thomas Jr. and a no. 2 wide receiver with big upside in rookie Travis Hunter. There’s enough here where Lawrence should play like a competent starter. Here’s a look at how Lawrence has performed statistically over the past three seasons:
Trevor Lawrence's Statistical Performance
One good, one mediocre, and one bad season. It’s possible that Lawrence is trending downward. But it’s equally reasonable to think that he’ll settle somewhere in the middle tier of starting quarterbacks.
So why don’t I have the Jaguars ranked higher? Well, you may have heard of this thing called the offensive line. And Jacksonville’s doesn’t look like it’s going to be very good. In fact, Thorn has them projected to be the second-worst unit in the NFL. That is a huge difference from what Coen was working with in Tampa. If he can scheme around the O-line issues, the Jaguars can outperform this projection.
21
New England Patriots
Let’s start with the good. Among 31 qualifying rookie quarterbacks over the past 10 seasons, Drake Maye ranked fourth in dropback success rate last year. That’s really, really impressive considering how bad the situation was (offensive line, wide receivers, coaching). I’m bullish on Maye. And I like the running back group. After that? Well, it gets dicey.
New offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has had success before in New England, but everyone seems to be forgetting one little thing: HE ALWAYS HAD BILL BELICHICK BY HIS SIDE. McDaniels has coached five offenses outside of the Belichick bubble, and all five finished in the bottom half of the league in terms of offensive efficiency. I would just like to see him succeed once away from Belichick before giving him the benefit of the doubt.
In terms of Maye’s supporting cast, it’s better than last year’s but still loaded with question marks. The offensive line has a chance but still figures to be below average. Stefon Diggs is entering his age-32 season and is coming off an injury. Over the past five seasons, the only wide receivers age 32 or older who have had at least 800 receiving yards are A.J. Green (2021 with the Cardinals) and Adam Thielen (2023 with the Panthers).
Maybe Maye is so good that he makes the coaching and the supporting cast look better than they actually are. We see that with great quarterbacks all the time. But I think the more likely scenario is that this is a stable, competent, improving group that needs one more offseason of upgrades before it makes a bigger leap.
22
Chicago Bears
There’s a chance that this goes great for the Bears. The new additions on the offensive line protect Caleb Williams better. Wide receiver Rome Odunze makes the second-year leap, and rookies Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland look like home-run draft picks. Ben Johnson continues to be the play calling mad scientist that we saw in Detroit, and Chicago’s offense goes up and down the field on opponents. I could legitimately see it.
Then again, it might not be a quick fix. Williams showed flashes of brilliance last season, but overall, he endured the usual rookie growing pains. If we look at 31 qualifying rookie quarterbacks over the past 10 seasons, Williams ranks 21st in EPA per pass play. In other words, slightly below average but far from a disaster. Among the areas that Williams needs to clean up is sack avoidance. According to PFF, 28.2 percent of his pressures turned into sacks last season. That ranked 31st out of 32 quarterbacks, ahead of only Tennessee’s Will Levis. The protection wasn’t good, but Williams struggled to limit the damage.
It’s possible that Williams and the Bears make a huge leap. But I think the more likely scenario is gradual improvement.
23
Miami Dolphins
I don’t understand the Dolphins’ plan. Tua Tagovailoa has missed at least four games in four of his five NFL seasons. It seems like they should make sound investments in a reliable backup. Yet they are going into 2025 with Zach Wilson and seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers. That is not close to good enough! I’m also concerned that the Dolphins could have a bottom-five offensive line. Oh, and Tyreek Hill is coming off one of the lowest yards-per-reception averages (11.8) of his career, and it’s possible that he might not be on this team after the trade deadline. I won’t be shocked if Miami looks good in September when everyone is healthy and happy, but nothing about this operation suggests that it’s built to last.
24
Seattle Seahawks
The signs this preseason have been positive, but the preseason often lies to us. There’s just too much riding on new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and his ability to maximize Sam Darnold’s strengths and his scheme around what projects to be a bottom-five offensive line. Maybe Kubiak will be a revelation as a coordinator, but he’ll need to prove that first.
There are a couple of data points worth considering here. One, the Vikings offense finished 15th in offensive efficiency with Darnold last year. That was with a proven coach in Kevin O’Connell, one of the league’s best receivers in Justin Jefferson, and a better offensive line than what Seattle has now. In other words, 15th seems like the ceiling for this Seahawks team if everything goes right. The Seahawks finished 18th last year. That was with Geno Smith at quarterback, Ryan Grubb at offensive coordinator, and DK Metcalf at wide receiver. Now it’s Darnold, Kubiak, and 32-year-old Cooper Kupp. On the whole, that seems like a downgrade to me.
I’ll fully admit that I was hesitant to believe that what we saw last year with Darnold was real. Maybe it was, maybe Kubiak’s scheme will fit his talents, maybe the offensive line will be better than it’s projected to be, and maybe Kupp will find the fountain of youth. But it seems like the Seahawks are betting on a bunch of exceptions, and the most likely scenario is still that this will be a below-average unit.
25
Carolina Panthers
I really want to see Bryce Young play well this season. I think it would be such a fun story. I just need to see more before I fully buy in. Last year, Young made a full return in Week 8 and started the Panthers’ final 10 games. If we look at his performance over that stretch in terms of EPA per pass play and extend it over the course of the full season, it equates to roughly the 20th-ranked starter. EPA takes everything into account, including high-leverage plays like turnovers, explosive completions, etc.
If we do the same exercise but look at success rate, Young performed like the 33rd-ranked starter (out of 36). Success rate tracks the percentage of positive plays, but a 12-yard completion on third-and-10 is treated the same as a 50-yard completion, in that both are successful. When looking at smaller samples, success rate can be more useful because turnovers and explosive plays don’t carry as much weight. The bottom line here is that the numbers are concerning. While the film and the eye test told us that Young was playing with more confidence and creativity, the Panthers’ passing game was still really bad on a down-to-down basis during Young’s final 10 starts.
The good news for Panthers fans: Young could still improve! Carolina drafted wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the first round and is hoping he can be a force multiplier for its pass catching group. The offensive line should be competent. And head coach/offensive play caller Dave Canales should have a good sense now of where Young succeeds. There are definitely things to build on from how Young finished last season, but I need to see more to believe the offense can be above average.
26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers looks on during a preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars
List of quarterbacks who have started more than 10 games at age 42 or older during the Super Bowl era: Tom Brady. That’s the whole list!
You can probably guess why I’m telling you this. Aaron Rodgers is entering his age-42 season (he turned 41 last December), and the Steelers are counting on him to get them something they have not had since 2016: a playoff win. I am skeptical that this is going to work out. The best-case scenario for the Steelers is that Arthur Smith devises a scheme that works for Rodgers at this point in his career. I don’t know why I should believe that is likely, and I don’t know why I should believe that Rodgers will actually care what Smith has to say. You also have to believe that the Steelers’ young offensive tackles will be very good. (This is a maybe?) And you have to believe that the wide receivers not named DK Metcalf will step up.
If you believe all those things and want to yell at me about having the Steelers too low, by all means, go for it. But I think this will be a boring, uninspiring, below-average offense.
27
Indianapolis Colts
Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks last year, Anthony Richardson ranked 36th in EPA per pass play. Daniel Jones—who started for the Giants, was benched, and was then signed by the Vikings (where he was a backup)—ranked 34th. Colts fans, this is the quarterback competition that has dominated your summer. I’m so sorry.
The truth is, I’m rooting for Richardson. The Colts somehow seemed to be caught off guard by the fact that they needed a plan for a young, inexperienced, first-round quarterback who faced a steep learning curve as he transitioned to the NFL. Their plan now seems to be to simply light a fire under Richardson by making him compete with Daniel freakin’ Jones. This seems like a very misguided plan that has little chance for success. Having said that, Richardson’s highs are very fun, and it’d be a great story if he improved and started to put it all together.
This actually isn’t a terrible environment for a quarterback: a competent offensive line; skill-position players like Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Josh Downs; and exciting rookie tight end Tyler Warren. A highly efficient run game with a passing game focused on attacking one-on-ones could work. Maybe that’s what we’ll see, and the Colts will surprise us. But the downside here is quite low, and I just don’t trust the infrastructure.
28
New York Jets
Aaron Glenn and Tony Adams during a preseason game against the Green Bay Packers
I have heard a lot of arguments about how the Jets offense could be “fun” this year. I have heard zero arguments that the Jets offense will actually be good. New head coach Aaron Glenn is not disguising his team’s priorities: run game and defense. I can buy the idea that this run game will cook. The Steelers never really leaned into that with Justin Fields last season, but we saw during his time in Chicago that Fields could be a special runner, capable of creating explosive plays with his legs. The Jets look like they should have a solid offensive line and running back corps. Leaning into the strength of their run game at this stage of their rebuild makes sense to me.
But at some point, you do have to throw the football. And that’s unlikely to go well for the Jets. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Fields ranks 34th in success rate over the past three seasons. Generally speaking, bad things have happened when he’s had to drop back and pass. My sense is that Glenn will count on the offense to not lose games for the Jets. And that likely means a pretty low ceiling.
29
Cleveland Browns
Everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong for the Browns last year. They started Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Bailey Zappe at quarterback. They were crushed by injuries. And they lost more EPA on turnovers than any other offense in the NFL. In other words, maybe they’ll get a little luckier this season. But also, let’s be real: This offense will stink.
I have no issue with Cleveland taking a bunch of dart throws at quarterback and essentially kicking the can down the road for a year while it tries to dig its way out of the franchise-altering Watson mistake. It looks like it’ll start the season with Joe Flacco. The offensive line should be OK. And I still like Kevin Stefanski as a coach. But c’mon—there’s just not much to get excited about here.
30
New York Giants
One of my favorite nuggets of the offseason: The Giants are returning 10 of 11 of their starters on offense, despite the fact that they finished 29th in EPA per drive last year. I don’t even know how that’s possible, especially considering that the coach and general manager are trying to save their jobs. It doesn’t take much digging to figure out what they’re telling us with their actions: They believe the quarterback was the problem. And now for the solution: Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart. Who’s excited?
The hardest thing to predict in the NFL is whether a rookie quarterback will be good. If the Giants have a season out of nowhere and surprise us, it’ll likely be because Dart gets to play and impresses. Receiver Malik Nabers is terrific, but the Giants’ offensive line is once again a question mark. I just have a hard time seeing much of a difference from last year with this group.
31
Tennessee Titans
Like I just said: The hardest thing to predict in the NFL is whether a rookie quarterback will be good. I like Cam Ward. He’s fun. He’s talented. He should be entertaining. But the baseline I’m working with here is that most rookie quarterbacks struggle. Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud are exceptions, not the norm.
The Titans wisely built up their offensive line in the offseason, and that should give Ward a chance. But the pass catching group behind Calvin Ridley is quite thin. Also: Do we know if Brian Callahan is a good coach? What did we learn about him in his first season in Tennessee, other than that he wanted to rip Will Levis’s head off every week? Ward makes the Titans watchable and relevant. But this group will likely struggle.
32
New Orleans Saints
On paper, this looks like the most dire quarterback situation in the NFL, with an ongoing competition between Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough, and Jake Haener. The offensive line projects to be below average. And even though his Eagles won the Super Bowl last year, I don’t think anyone paying close attention to Philadelphia thinks that Kellen Moore maximized the talent he had to work with.
There’s not a whole lot else to add here. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are fun. But given the quarterback situation, it would be a stunner for this offense to end up as anything but one of the worst in the NFL.
