NBA free agency officially tips off Monday night, but the league’s offseason has been humming for weeks. Have we already seen the biggest fireworks? Or are there some major surprises in store in the summer months to come?
With limited cap space around the league, this won’t be your traditional free-agent bonanza. But the action could still be frantic, as it has been since the Finals when both Desmond Bane and Kevin Durant were traded in separate blockbusters. Since then, we’ve seen a steady drumbeat of other big moves, including the Celtics dealing Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, the Wolves re-signing Naz Reid and Julius Randle, and Kyrie Irving and James Harden inking new deals.
But is there a big one looming? While Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors have circulated for months (if not years), there’s a good chance he will stay put. LeBron James opted in, but Rich Paul indicated his client could request a trade if the Lakers don’t try to win the title next season. And then there’s the one you never see coming. Could Lauri Markkanen, Jaylen Brown, or another All-Star be moved in this summer’s biggest surprise?
To examine the landscape, the Ringer NBA team paneled its writers and asked them the six biggest questions heading into the offseason. Let’s dive in.
What is your favorite move of the offseason so far?
Danny Chau: The Hawks stealing an unprotected 2026 first-rounder from the Pelicans to move down 10 spots in the draft is probably the best value play of the summer thus far (honorable mention to the Cavaliers trading for the ultimate connector in Lonzo Ball for the low, low price of Isaac Okoro), but the answer is still Kevin Durant to the Rockets. For a young team full of bloodthirsty defenders who had no clue how to score at an acceptable level in the postseason, adding a two-time Finals MVP without sacrificing depth or important future assets is a game-changer.
Michael Pina: I loved seeing the Cleveland Cavaliers trade Okoro (someone who can’t help them in the playoffs) for Ball (someone who can definitely help them in the playoffs) in a deal that feels like the sequel to last summer’s Josh Giddey–Alex Caruso swap. Once again, a hopeful contender took advantage of the Chicago Bulls by significantly upgrading its own roster with a cheaper, better player without sacrificing any draft capital. Good job by the Cavs.
Howard Beck: It’s cool that Minnesota retained its two free-agent bigs, but everything else has paled in comparison to the Rockets landing KD. Nothing else has really been that glitzy. Except, well, maybe—if you squint so hard it hurts your eyeballs—the Jazz trading Collin Sexton to the Hornets for Jusuf Nurkic. Does acquiring another ball-dominant, offense-first guard actually improve the Hornets? Eh, probably not. Does acquiring an oft-injured, nearly 31-year-old center make any sense for the young and rebuilding Jazz? Absolutely not. Is this trade a prelude to something more interesting for one or both teams? We can only hope.
Tyler Parker: Desmond Bane to Orlando. It’s not as sexy as KD, but in a depleted East, Bane gives this still-young Magic team another scrapper to help them continue their climb up the conference standings. He fills a massive need for Orlando with the ability to shoot, handle, and initiate for stretches and not eat up too many shots the Magic would rather give to Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner. Plus, he fits into what they like to do on defense down there. His presence will amplify the things Paolo does well, and loosen up opposing defenses that were way too comfy packing the paint last season.
Logan Murdock: Anfernee Simons to Boston is a pretty cool fit. I’m very excited and cautiously optimistic to see how he plays in a contending environment. Then again, the offseason is still young. Hopefully he doesn’t get rerouted in another deal.
What is the most interesting team of this summer?
Beck: Milwaukee Bucks, by far. To review: They’ve won one—ONE—playoff series since raising the trophy in 2021. Giannis Antetokounmpo is 30, and has said he wants to win at least one more title in his career. So far, there’s no indication he will ask out. But how long can that last, given the state of the Milwaukee roster? Here’s a theory: Giannis is sitting on that trade demand until he sees what the front office accomplishes this summer. If the Bucks, with very little to work with, can somehow swing a few deals that make the roster viable again, Giannis will stand down and stay for the foreseeable future. If they fail, Giannis finally will throw the “trade me” card, either by the trade deadline or next summer. Which makes this summer absolutely critical. But hey, it’s just a theory.
Pina: Los Angeles Clippers. They were a legitimate title contender before they fell to the Denver Nuggets in a seven-game first-round series that included some truly absurd crunch-time heroics from the Nuggets. They enter the summer with the non-taxpayer midlevel exception ($14.1 million) and, after trading for Bogdan Bogdanovic at last season’s trade deadline, a big question mark surrounding Norm Powell’s future (he’s coming off his best season but just turned 32 and is extension eligible on an expiring contract). The Clips began free agency by locking in James Harden on a two-year extension. How do they maximize the last couple years of All-NBA Kawhi Leonard? Or, could they turn around, shock the rest of the league, and trade their franchise player?
Chau: New Orleans Pelicans. The front office regime of Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver has made it clear that it won’t be bashful in making moves to plant its flag on this franchise. Where does Zion Williamson—who’s facing a lawsuit in which a woman says he raped her and committed domestic violence against her—fit into the team’s plan? Trey Murphy III had a breakout Year 4 campaign—the only other players as tall as Trey Murphy III to have ever logged a season averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting at least 36 percent from 3 on at least eight attempts per game are Paul George and Jayson Tatum. Might he be on the block? Or maybe Herb Jones, an All-Defensive wing who may have gotten lost in the shuffle due to injury? These are undeniably talented players that would make sense for a New Orleans team trying to win. But it might be a fool’s errand to predict the direction of the Pelicans at this point.
Parker: Detroit Pistons. After pushing the Knicks in the first round, Detroit is primed to take another step forward this season. Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson all have another year of development under their belt, plus Jaden Ivey is back to continue his assault on the league’s rims. Considering the way they acquitted themselves against New York, how ready for the moment they were, and how grimy they were willing to get, if they are able to add some punch this summer they could be very scary—even in a healthy East. Now they’re coming into their own right as their conference is at its most [shrugs shoulders]. With the right moves, the Pistons could be playing deep into May.
Murdock: New Orleans Pelicans. How many more dubious decisions can they make in a two-month span? I feel like there’s a really good chance we’re going to find out.
Who will be the biggest name to change teams this summer?
Parker: LeBron James. I should know better than to buy into these rumors. This is what he does. He puts doubt into the hearts and minds of his front office so they make every attempt to maximize the roster around him. Then, whether there has been meaningful improvement or not, he re-signs. But something in the vibe of the most recent Rich Paul quotes feels different. It’s also possible I just ate something weird. Honestly that’s probably for sure what happened and LeBron will retire a Laker, but look, I’ve already written the paragraph. Let me be.
Beck: There’s a good chance the biggest fireworks are already over. Kevin Durant has been dealt. Giannis probably won’t be this summer. We might not even get another Desmond Bane–level deal this summer. The next best player to change teams might be Jonathan Kuminga. Or Brook Lopez. Or Dennis Schröder. There are no apparent blockbusters looming, unless you buy the idea that the 40-year-old legend in Los Angeles is going to suddenly force his way to a new team, a year after his current team drafted his son, and just months after said franchise traded for a top-three star.
Murdock: Ja Morant? Get Beck on the phoooooooneeee!
Pina: Lauri Markkanen. When Austin Ainge declared earlier this summer that the Utah Jazz weren’t going to tank their way through another season by “resting” players who might or might not have been “injured,” I believed him. That doesn’t mean the Jazz will do everything in their power to make the play-in tournament, though. Now is the time to develop and evaluate a young core that includes Ace Bailey, Walter Clayton Jr., Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Kyle Filipowski—see what’s what and who works where. Markkanen, meanwhile, is 28 years old, smack dab in the middle of his prime, and on a contract that occupies over a quarter of the cap until it expires in 2029. He makes so much more sense on a team that’s ready to win sooner rather than later. If the Jazz let the rest of the league know Markkanen is available now, they’ll get ridiculous offers.
Chau: … LeBron James? Are we buying this latest game of leverage chicken telephone?
Play free agent matchmaker: What's one player-team fit you'd like to see?
Chau: Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the Pistons. It’s a perfect fit, in terms of both rotational needs and culture. Alexander-Walker has shot 38.5 percent from 3 during his past three seasons and has emerged as one of the most reliable point-of-attack defenders in the league. NAW fills a clear void on the roster, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Malik Beasley—who is both an unrestricted free agent and the subject of a federal investigation related to gambling. The Pistons were one of the biggest surprises of 2024-25; carrying that momentum into next season will require making significant gains along the margins. Alexander-Walker fits the bill as an upgrade on both sides of the ball.
Pina: I think Bruce Brown Jr. to the Denver Nuggets for their taxpayer midlevel exception would be a bit of formulaic nostalgia that makes sense and could work out well for both sides. But it could also feel stale and unimaginative—fraught effort from a front office that’s attempting to recapture the championship magic it let walk out the door a couple of years ago. Instead, I’d like to see the Nuggets use that same exception to finally, once and for all, find a reliable backup center for Nikola Jokic. The two best options who may be available at the taxpayer midlevel are Al Horford and Luke Kornet, a couple of Celtics champions with big-game experience and two-way ability. With so many teams out West beefing up their frontcourts to take Jokic down, it’s past time for the Nuggets to supply the world’s best player with some real muscle.
Parker: Ty Jerome to the Pistons. He’s a steady hand who stretches the floor. Detroit needed shooting help even before Beasley allegedly went full Jontay. Doubly so now that Beaz is under investigation and likely not playing next season. You need multiple ball handlers to be a legitimate threat in today’s NBA. Since Dennis Schröder might wind up playing somewhere else, the Pistons need another player (besides Ivey, who will be coming back from injury) who can run the offense, playmake a little bit, scare the defense from deep. Jerome offers them all of that. Jerome would get the ball to Cade if the Pistons want to explore Cunningham’s off-ball powers. I would also like to see Alexander-Walker go to the Hawks, both because he rules and because I think people would get a lotta mileage out of NAW rhyming with CAW.
Beck: Cam Johnson would be a perfect Warrior—he’s a high-character, high-IQ guy who converts 3s at a high rate and can defend multiple positions. (Could Golden State interest Brooklyn in a sign-and-trade deal for Kuminga?) Johnson is 29, is firmly in his prime, and has just one year left on his contract. The Warriors need someone who can provide shooting and perimeter defense alongside Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. The Nets need to lean into their youth movement, highlighted by drafting a record five players in the first round last week. Their rebuild is moving at a glacial pace, and Johnson won’t be there when they’re ready to start winning again.
Murdock: LeBron takes the taxpayer midlevel to go to Denver and plays his last year with Jokic. Hey, I’m down. Are you? Thought so.
Who will be the biggest threat to OKC on opening night?
Chau: Rockets. If Durant maintains his gaudy averages while Amen Thompson fully harnesses his otherworldly gifts on offense in addition to his fearsome defense, the Rockets might just have as much upside as any team in the league.
Pina: Rockets. So much stuff that would change my answer can still happen, but at this moment, it has to be Houston. It added Kevin freaking Durant to an offense that was desperate for elite individual scoring without surrendering any future draft capital or irreplaceable present-day talent. A masterstroke by Rockets GM Rafael Stone.
Parker: Rockets. Part of me wants to say the Knicks, but my heart says Houston. The Durant trade seems like such a home run. To have to give up only Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and a pick … Mat Ishbia, baby, what are you doing? After all you gave up to get him? The people of Phoenix continue to deserve better. I suppose that I have the same questions as everyone else. How is Reed Sheppard not a Sun? Or Jabari Smith Jr.? Or Tari Eason? Or Cam Whitmore? Ishbia knows you’re allowed to ask for multiple picks, right?
Murdock: Nuggets. Even with their paper-thin depth and an inconsistent supporting cast, Jokic and Co. still took the Thunder to seven games. Can Denver find a way to get the Joker some help?
Beck: There really is no clear answer here! And there won’t be until we see how the next few weeks play out. Maybe it’s the Nuggets, if they can find at least one more reliable impact player to support Jokic. Maybe it’s the Lakers, if they can remake the supporting cast to better suit Luka Doncic as the primary driver and LeBron as the costar. Maybe it’s the Warriors, if they can flip Kuminga for a young, spry 3-and-D wing and find one more playmaker to alleviate the burden on Curry. Or maybe it’s the Rockets, if Amen Thompson and Smith make another leap and Durant stays healthy.
Give us one random prediction for the summer.
Chau: Cooper Flagg is on the accelerated Giannis timeline and will look great running point guard at summer league and throughout the offseason. “I want to put him at point guard,” Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd told reporters. “I want to make him uncomfortable and see how he reacts.” Kidd, of course, famously designated Giannis as a full-time point guard during his time with the Milwaukee Bucks a decade ago. Flagg’s success would be a testament to his absurd velocity of skill acquisition for his age and would also give the Mavs a bit of breathing room in acquiring a stopgap facilitator in Kyrie Irving’s absence. Because do the Mavs really need D’Angelo Russell?
Beck: The next blockbuster move, whatever it is and whomever it involves, won’t be anything we could have foreseen in this survey.
Pina: Alexander-Walker will sign an eye-popping contract with the Detroit Pistons.
Murdock: JUST a guess: We’ll get an expansion announcement from the NBA soon. Maybe at summer league?
Parker: After the Knicks hire Mike Brown as their new head coach, Brown will immediately switch to orange glasses exclusively. One game next season, he and Spike will be wearing matching frames.
