We’re now exactly one year away from the biggest sporting event in the world descending on North America. But before a single ball is kicked at the 2026 World Cup next summer, there remains more than 200 nations competing in hundreds of matches to try to qualify for the tournament. It’s a bit easier to qualify now, thanks to the first expansion of the competition since 1998. That year’s World Cup saw the number of teams increase from 24 to 32; now, 48 teams will compete for the trophy in 2026. Even with the extra space, we’ve seen plenty of historically successful soccer nations miss the World Cup before (I’m looking at you, Italy), and there are bound to be a few surprises along the way.
Here are the continental breakdowns for qualifying, which is already well underway. Thirteen teams have clinched their qualification so far, including the three host nations of Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
Forty-six teams will qualify directly for the tournament, and the remaining six teams will head to a playoff for the final two spots. To create the most accurate power rankings, I’ve tried to best project the remainder of the qualifying process. (Fair warning: This is borderline impossible, but it’s a fun thought exercise.) As a result, the rankings are reflective of both form and talent, and they’re forward-looking to the best prospects of qualifying. The bottom six are the teams I think could end up in the playoff, hence why there are 52 teams included instead of 48. The most notable omission is Nigeria, who is currently on the outside looking in as far as qualifying in Africa.
Without further ado, here are the 52 potential World Cup teams, ranked.
Exactly One Year to Go Until the 2026 World Cup
52. New Caledonia
Star man: César Zeoula (Chauvigny)
Fact to know: New Caledonia is ranked 151st in the FIFA World Rankings, 65 spots lower than any other team on this list
New Caledonia lost comfortably to New Zealand in the Oceanic playoff for the lone guaranteed World Cup spot. Now, the island nation of 290,000 people will head to two rounds of playoffs for one of the final few spots in the tournament. They’ll be heavy underdogs to reach the final 48, but that’s why we play the game. The majority of their roster plays domestically in the New Caledonian league, and a handful play in the French lower leagues.
51. El Salvador
Star man: Darwin Cerén (Águila)
Fact to know: El Salvador has qualified for the World Cup twice (1970, 1982) but has lost all six of its group-stage matches
The fact that CONCACAF, a fairly weak confederation, could get eight teams in the 2026 World Cup is probably the biggest argument against expanding the World Cup field. That being said, CONCACAF will send two teams to the inter-confederation playoff in addition to its six auto qualifiers. El Salvador is in the glob of teams who could well end up in the playoff. El Salvador was placed into the most interesting Gold Cup group—with Canada, Honduras, and Curacao—this summer, which will give us a good look at how they stack up when the competition kicks off on June 14.
50. Honduras
Star man: Anthony Lozano (Santos Laguna)
Fact to know: Honduras has qualified for three World Cups in its history, most recently in 2014
Honduras couldn’t hold on to their lead in the second leg of the Nations League quarterfinals against Mexico in November, but their 2-0 win in the first leg caught my eye. The Hondurans will have a shot to qualify directly into the field of 48, given that there’s not much of a gap between teams they’re competing with in the region. The Hondurans have never won a World Cup match before, and while they’re ultimately unlikely to qualify, CONCACAF is the land of opportunity in this World Cup cycle.
49. Iraq
Star man: Al Al-Hamadi (Ipswich Town)
Fact to know: Iraq has made one World Cup appearance, in 1986
The ninth and final team from Asia will have to go through the inter-confederation playoffs. Given the depth of opposition in South America and Africa, odds are this ninth Asian team will not actually make it into the final 48. Iraq was beaten twice by South Korea during qualifying, but they did pull off an upset against Japan during the Asian Cup last year, which led to them winning their group during group play.
48. DR Congo
Star man: Yoane Wissa (Brentford)
Fact to know: Then known as Zaire, DR Congo was the first sub-Saharan team to ever qualify for the World Cup in 1974
They’re currently in a tough battle with Senegal for first place in their qualifying group, but DR Congo will be one of the favorites to claim the last African spot if they do fall out of the top spot. They’ve been defensively stout in qualifying thus far, conceding just two goals in six matches. DR Congo is fresh off a solid showing in the last African Cup of Nations (AFCON), where they knocked out Egypt and Guinea before losing to eventual champion Ivory Coast in the semifinal.
47. Venezuela
Star man: Salomón Rondón (Pachuca)
Fact to know: Venezuela is the only CONMEBOL side to never qualify for the World Cup
Whichever South American team ends up in the playoff will instantly become a clear favorite to make the field of 48. Venezuela is most likely to be that team, and they’re coming off an impressive showing at the Copa Ámerica last summer. They won all three matches in their group against Ecuador, Mexico, and Jamaica—all teams likely to qualify for this World Cup. We reserved the bottom six teams in these rankings for the likely playoff spots, but Venezuela is actually talented enough to potentially reach the knockouts of the World Cup proper, depending on their group.
46. New Zealand (Q)
Star man: Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest)
Fact to know: New Zealand finished ahead of Italy in their group at the 2010 World Cup in their last tournament appearance, but still failed to advance to the knockout round
New Zealand confirmed its place in the World Cup with a 3-0 win against New Caledonia. You could argue that no nation has benefited more from the expanded field than New Zealand, who is consistently the best team in OFC but will be one of the lowest FIFA-ranked teams in the tournament. Club-wise, New Zealand has players scattered across the globe, but none are more renowned than Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood. He has 44 career goals for the Kiwis and scored an impressive 20 goals in the Premier League this past season.
45. Costa Rica
Star man: Francisco Calvo (Hatayspor)
Fact to know: Costa Rica is the last CONCACAF team to advance past the round of 16 in a World Cup, as they were quarterfinalists in 2014
This is not your older brother’s Costa Rica squad. They always seem to be in the mix in these international tournaments—they beat Japan in the group of death at Qatar 2022 and tied Brazil at the Copa Ámerica last summer. Unfortunately, Costa Rica’s overall talent level is headed in the wrong direction following a golden generation that brought so much success at the international level.
They have had a strong start in CONCACAF qualifying thus far, but trying to figure out which teams will qualify behind the clear top four in the confederation (Panama and the three hosts) is a difficult task right now. Goalkeeper Keylor Navas, 38, once of Real Madrid and PSG fame, captained the side in a qualifying win against the Bahamas last week.
44. Jamaica
Star man: Leon Bailey (Aston Villa)
Fact to know: Former Newcastle manager and Manchester United assistant Steve McClaren is the manager of Jamaica
The Reggae Boyz have made the World Cup once in their history and just missed out on the knockout round in 1998. Leon Bailey had a public feud with the top brass in the Jamaican soccer apparatus, but it appears they’ve moved on and settled their dispute. Jamaica was placed in arguably the most balanced group at Copa Ámerica (Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela) and still lost all three games. They've again been placed in a fairly even group at this summer’s Gold Cup and we’ll get to see if they can advance in a group with Guadeloupe, Panama, and Guatemala.
Leon Bailey and Demarai Gray are two wide forwards that give Jamaica a real threat playing on the break and in transition.
43. United Arab Emirates
Star man: Khalid Eisa (Al Ain)
Fact to know: The United Arab Emirates have qualified for the World Cup once (1990), but lost all three matches
It’s difficult to sort out who will claim the remaining spots in Asian qualifying, with six teams headed to the final round for the final three Asian places in the field of 52 (with the addition of playoffs). I picked UAE along with the next team on this list simply because they have the best goal difference of the likely playoff teams during the current qualifying round. UAE’s run at the Asian Cup last year ended earlier than expected with a round of 16 penalty shootout loss to Tajikistan.
The margins between the Asian teams in this tier are tiny, but UAE do have a higher Transfermarkt squad value than Iran, who is one of the top teams on the continent.
42. Saudi Arabia
Star man: Firas Al-Buraikan (Al Ahli)
Fact to know: Hervé Renard is back as Saudi Arabia manager after leading them at the last World Cup
Saudi Arabia’s win against Argentina in their opening game of the 2022 World Cup is legitimately one of the biggest upsets in world soccer history. Hervé Renard’s leaked halftime speech to the dressing room has become famous worldwide. Renard is a well-respected international manager who has successfully coached throughout Africa as well as the French women’s national team.
Odds are Saudi Arabia won’t top the win against Argentina in this World Cup, and they are still far from assured a qualifying place. Their guest Gold Cup appearance this summer will present real opportunities for Renard to mold the team in his image before the key qualifying playoff matches this fall. Saudi Arabia plays the United States on June 19 in the second group game.
41. Jordan (Q)
Star man: Mousa Tamari (Rennes)
Fact to know: Jordan is making its World Cup debut in 2026
Jordan is in the midst of their best-ever run as a soccer-playing nation right now. Not only will they be World Cup debutants, but they also made a run to the Asian Cup final in 2023. They ultimately lost to host nation Qatar, but not without beating Iraq and South Korea en route to the final. It was one of the most fascinating runs in recent tournament history, as Jordan scored twice in stoppage time to beat Iraq in the round of 16, won on an own goal in the quarterfinal against Tajikistan, but then lost the final by conceding three penalties to Qatar. Jordan will hope to be just as entertaining in North America next summer.
40. Uzbekistan (Q)
Star man: Abdukodir Khusanov (Manchester City)
Fact to know: Uzbekistan is making its World Cup debut in 2026
Roma’s Eldor Shomurodov, who captains the Uzbekistan national team, tallied four goals and four assists for Roma in Serie A this season, and Abdukodir Khusanov earned a big-money move to Manchester City in January. Those are the two key players propping up Uzbekistan and leading their squad into the World Cup. They played Iran to a draw in both qualifying matches, which should provide some optimism for their chances to be competitive in their debutant appearance next summer.
39. South Africa
Star man: Bongokuhle Hlongwane (Minnesota United)
Fact to know: South Africa was the first African nation to host the World Cup. Morocco will cohost with Spain and Portugal in 2030.
South Africa hasn’t been to the World Cup since it hosted the event in 2010. They’ve been to the tournament three times in total (all since 1998) and have never advanced past the group stage. In many ways, they are a surprise contender. When they were paired up with African heavyweight Nigeria in their qualifying group, they started as sizable underdogs to make this list. However, South Africa has a five-point lead over Rwanda and six points over Nigeria with four matches to play.
Mark your calendars: The most important game is in September, when South Africa hosts Nigeria. If the South Africans can manage at least a draw, the math gets nearly impossible for Nigeria to catch them.
38. Panama
Star man: Adalberto Carrasquilla (UNAM)
Fact to know: Panama first qualified for the World Cup in 2018 but lost all three games with a minus-9 goal differential
Fortunately for the United States, and maybe unfortunately for Panama, the Americans cannot be placed in a group with Panama at the World Cup since they hail from the same confederation. The Panamanians played a decisive role in knocking out the U.S. in the Copa Ámerica last year, then followed that up by knocking out the U.S. directly in the semifinal of the Nations League in March. Panama is the clear fourth-strongest team in North America right now, behind the three hosts of 2026 and ahead of challengers Costa Rica and Jamaica. Panama beat Costa Rica 3-2 on aggregate when the two nations matched up in the Nations League quarterfinals.
All that said, Panama’s 5-0 defeat to Colombia in the Copa Àmerica quarterfinal and their 3-1 loss to Uruguay in the group stage shows that there is a sizable gap between Panama and the next tier of competitors in the World Cup.
37. Australia (Q)
Star man: Mathew Ryan (Lens)
Fact to know: Australia advanced from their group in the 2022 World Cup over Denmark and Tunisia before losing to eventual champions Argentina
Australia won the Asian Cup in 2015 under then-manager Ange Postecoglou. They’ve since lost in the quarterfinals in the last two editions in 2019 and 2023. Australia is a difficult team to rank because their Transfermarkt squad values would place them 71st in the world, while FIFA has them 26th in its official rankings. The reality is somewhere in the middle, as they’ve frequently been a competitive World Cup team in past cycles.
36. Ghana
Star man: Mohammed Kudus (West Ham)
Fact to know: Ghana knocked out the United States from the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, but the U.S. got revenge in 2014 on a famous John Brooks header
Ghana’s golden generation from 2006-14 aged out, but after failing to qualify in 2018, Ghana returned to the World Cup in 2022. Now, they have a talented squad with a handful of European regulars ready to challenge again for a place in the knockout stage. The breakout season from Antoine Semenyo at Bournemouth gives Ghana another attacking threat on the opposite flank from star man Mohammed Kudus.
Qualifying rival Mali has underachieved thus far in their group, which leaves Ghana in first place, three points ahead of surprise package Comoros with four matches to play.
35. Canada (Q)
Star man: Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich)
Fact to know: Canadian manager Jesse Marsch is an American, and he often likes to remind the U.S. Soccer Federation of that
You could make a case that Canada is actually the second-most talented North American squad from top to bottom, ahead of Mexico. With attacking fullback Davies and striker Jonathan David, the Canadians have maybe the two best players in the entire confederation. They have a clear playing style and have fully adopted Marsch’s high-intensity tactics, but I’m also not overreacting to Canada’s run to the semifinal of the Copa América last year. It was a successful tournament, but the Canadians really struggled to score goals when it mattered. They lost 2-0 to Mexico in the Nations League semifinal in March, too.
34. Tunisia
Star man: Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley)
Fact to know: Tunisia finished dead last in its AFCON group in 2023 and failed to reach the knockout stage
Tunisia has played six matches in World Cup qualifying and still hasn’t conceded a goal. It hasn’t been a difficult group, with the likes of Namibia and Liberia as opposition, but the Tunisians are on the path to a seamless qualification. Tunisia pulled off a shocking upset against France and tied Denmark at the last World Cup, but it still wasn’t enough to advance because of a loss to Australia. There’s not a ton of goal-scoring firepower in this squad, but it is an organized defensive outfit that has proved difficult to break down on the global stage.
Tunisia will play in the same group as Nigeria in the Africa Cup of Nations this winter. The last AFCON didn’t go as planned, but this match will be a compelling test for them prior to next summer. Their most recent measuring-stick match was a 2-0 friendly defeat to Morocco.
33. Algeria
Star man: Riyad Mahrez (Al-Ahli)
Fact to know: According to oddsmakers, Algeria is tied for second (along with Egypt) to win AFCON in January
After a solid 2023 AFCON showing, Guinea has really underperformed in World Cup qualifying. That has opened the door for Algeria to return to the World Cup for the first time since it took eventual champion Germany to extra time in the 2014 knockout stage. Algeria is in first place with a three-point lead over Mozambique, and the two sides have no more head-to-head matchups left on the qualifying calendar.
With Rayan Ait-Nouri—who’s recently earned a big move to Manchester City—Ramy Bensebaini, and Mahrez, the Algerians will be very dangerous moving the ball up the field in wide areas and creating chances via crossing. They have a handful of Big Five European league regulars and shouldn’t be overlooked.
32. Egypt
Star man: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
Fact to know: Seven players on the current Egyptian squad play domestically for Al Ahly, who are in the Club World Cup this summer
Egypt has made the World Cup only once in Mo Salah’s career, and it lost all three of its games in 2018. The question has always been about the talent surrounding Salah and whether it’s good enough to supplement him. With the breakout season from Manchester City’s Omar Marmoush, Egypt now has a secondary scoring option to add to Salah’s production. The team needs both of its stars to be healthy to have any chance of reaching its potential because the depth otherwise is uninspiring.
As long as Egypt avoids defeat at Burkina Faso in its September match, it should have no issues qualifying. A loss could make their World Cup status a bit more dicey.
31. Cameroon
Star man: Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford)
Fact to know: Since a shock quarterfinal run in 1990, Cameroon has been eliminated in the group stage of the last six World Cups it qualified for
Cameroon still faces a bit of a challenge to qualify for the tournament, as it is one point behind Cape Verde in the standings with four matches to play and has to travel to play at Cape Verde in another head-to-head match. Cameroon won the reverse fixture 4-1 at home, so I am making a bit of an assumption that it’ll surpass the Cape Verdeans in the final matches.
With Mbeumo, Carlos Baleba, and André Onana, Cameroon has regular starters across the pitch in the Premier League. There are no top Champions League regulars in the squad, but they have enough depth to make noise next summer.
30. Ivory Coast
Star man: Simon Adingra (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Fact to know: Ivory Coast has the best goal difference of an African team in qualifying so far
Bona fide legends Yaya Touré and Didier Drogba are no longer lacing their boots for the Ivory Coast, but there’s still a lot of talent on this roster. The team’s run through the AFCON last year was one of the most interesting stories in sports in 2024. They fired their manager mid-tournament for poor performances and went on to win the whole damn thing with the interim coach.
The problem for past Ivorian teams was a reliance on just a couple of stars. This team doesn’t have any major stars, but there are a lot of players at clubs in top-five leagues across Europe. That golden generation of Touré and Drogba never made a World Cup knockout stage, but this group will have a real chance to do that for the first time.
29. Poland
Star man: Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona)
Fact to know: Lewandowski has said he won’t play for Poland as long as Michal Probierz is the manager
Poland has been consistently good at qualifying for major tournaments and consistently bad at achieving much in said tournaments. It finished last in a difficult group at Euro 2024 and last in its group in Euro 2020. The 2022 World Cup was the lone breakthrough for the Poles in recent memory as they advanced to the round of 16 over Mexico and Saudi Arabia before falling to France.
They’ll be battling it out with the Netherlands for the automatic qualifying spot, but they’ll also be one of the favorites to advance through the playoff if necessary. If Lewandowski actually sits out, the team’s chances of qualifying could be dicey. Or they could just fire the manager. It’s safe to say Lewandowski is more critical than Probierz to Poland’s chances of qualifying at this point. A 2-1 loss to Finland on Tuesday won’t help their chances.
28. Paraguay
Star man: Julio Enciso (Ipswich Town)
Fact to know: Paraguay last qualified for the World Cup in 2010 and made the quarterfinal
Paraguay’s collection of talent doesn’t stand out in South America, and it didn’t perform well in its Copa América group last summer, finishing last, behind Costa Rica, Colombia, and Brazil. However, CONMEBOL qualifying is the most grueling of them all, and Paraguay still sits in an automatic qualifying place. Goal scoring has been an issue for them in past cycles, but the emergence of Enciso has given them a primary creator to focus their team around.
27. Iran (Q)
Star man: Mehdi Taremi (Inter Milan)
Fact to know: Iran has consistently been the first- or second-best Asian team in FIFA rankings, but it lost in the semifinals of the last two Asian Cups in 2019 and 2023
Iran came up just short of advancing to the knockout stage in each of the last two World Cups, but it has gone toe-to-toe with the United States, Spain, and Portugal in past matchups. Iran was one of the top contenders to win the 2023 Asian Cup until it lost in an upset (3-2) to host nation Qatar in the semifinals. Now in their fourth consecutive World Cup, the Iranians are still looking for their first trip to the knockout round.
Iran feels like it’s on the precipice of breaking through globally. The expanded format could finally get them a knockout game, but it’s hard to see much more than that.
26. Mexico (Q)
Star man: Edson Álvarez (West Ham)
Fact to know: El Tri has four players in Europe’s top five leagues right now—Álvarez, Raúl Jiménez (Fulham), Santiago Giménez (AC Milan), and Johan Vásquez (Genoa)
Mexico won the CONCACAF Nations League in March, beating Canada and Panama en route to the trophy. It was a much-needed boost to a team that had been in steady decline. Not only did the Mexicans get grouped at the World Cup for the first time in the 21st century in 2022, but they followed it up with a loss to Venezuela that led them to get grouped in the Copa América last summer. The Gold Cup will be an opportunity for a third straight confederation trophy, but the team is still less talented than the United States at the moment.
The home-field advantage is sure to play a part for the Mexicans in the North American summer heat. They’ll be looking to bottle up striker Giménez’s club form for AC Milan and translate it to the national team.
25. South Korea (Q)
Star man: Heung-min Son (Tottenham Hotspur)
Fact to know: Son needs eight goals to break Cha Bum-kun’s all-time South Korean goal-scoring record of 58
South Korea finished the Asian World Cup qualifiers unbeaten in 10 matches and will carry a wealth of talent from Europe’s top five leagues to North America next summer. Son and Bayern’s Kim-min Jae have been well-known European regulars for years now, and they will be looking to build on the late heroics that saw them reach the round of 16 at the last World Cup.
24. United States (Q)
Star man: Christian Pulisic (AC Milan)
Fact to know: The United States conceded four goals in the first half of Tuesday’s friendly against Switzerland for the first time since 1980
The team’s form under Mauricio Pochettino certainly hasn’t been encouraging. The United States has shown clear regression since their quality round of 16 showing at the 2022 World Cup, and it’s not obvious that the Americans have any real solutions for their lack of center back depth or goalkeeper issues. But it’s important to note that the U.S. teams that recently lost to Panama, Canada, Türkiye, and Switzerland didn’t have the United States’ best possible 11 on the roster. The team relies so heavily on fullbacks Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest to create chances and move the ball forward that the absence of both has created real problems in recent matches.
I have so many questions about the state of the USMNT. They’ll be playing games at home, but is that even a huge advantage right now, given the general malaise of the national team? Is it possible for the Americans to gain some momentum between now and next June? Why can’t the United States get Chris Richards, Malik Tillman, and Johnny Cardoso to replicate their quality club performances for the national team? Will goalkeeper Matt Turner be able to land a starting spot at the club level so that he can remain sharp heading into the World Cup? There are lots of questions to ponder.
23. Norway
Star man: Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Fact to know: I’ve officially declared them “everyone’s favorite dark horse that isn’t actually a dark horse”
Norway hasn’t been to the World Cup since the 1998 edition. They are well on their way to qualification following a 3-0 demolition of Italy at home last week. If they take care of business against group minnows Moldova and Estonia, they’ll qualify directly as group winners.
Norway hasn’t even been to the Euros since 2000, but they have a really talented core right now. Haaland is one of the best goal scorers on the planet, and his link-up play with primary creator Martin Ødegaard is as good as that of any one-two attacking combination in the world. It’s not just those two powering the current squad, though. Norway starts four Premier League regulars, plus Borussia Dortmund right back Julian Ryerson and Atlético Madrid super sub Alexander Sørloth. They’ll be a popular dark horse next summer because of their pool of goal scorers and playmakers.
22. Senegal
Star man: Boulaye Dia (Lazio)
Fact to know: Senegal is one of three African countries on this list, along with Morocco and Tunisia, that is expected to qualify for three consecutive World Cups
Goal scoring has been an issue for Senegal throughout World Cup qualifying, as they have tallied just eight goals in six matches. The defense remains an excellent unit—it’s allowed just one goal—but the team has registered a string of draws, putting it a point behind DR Congo in its qualifying group.
This combination of attackers—Sadio Mané, Ismaila Sarr, Boulaye Dia, and Iliman Ndaiye—has goals in them, but there’s a lack of creators to give them chances, which hurt Senegal in 2022 and could now put their chances of qualification in moderate danger.
21. Italy
Star man: Alessandro Bastoni (Inter Milan)
Fact to know: Italy lost to North Macedonia in a 2022 World Cup playoff match and missed the tournament as a result
Italy is one of the toughest teams to rank in the whole field because their World Cup chances are in peril following a 3-0 defeat to Norway in their first qualifying match. The Italians have two games in hand, but they are still nine points behind Norway and 12 goals behind them in goal difference. It will be very difficult for the Italians to qualify directly at this point, so they’ll likely need to go through the playoffs (16 teams for four spots) to make the World Cup.
You’d still want to trust the defensive and midfield talent of Italy if they manage to get into the competition, but they’ve been reliably mediocre since winning the Euros in 2021. Key attacking players Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne aren’t around anymore, and Federico Chiesa is currently not in the squad after a disappointing (and injury-filled) season with Liverpool. Even Italy’s Euro 2024 performance isn’t particularly inspiring. They equalized with Croatia in the final minute of a group stage match but were comfortably outplayed by Spain and knocked out by Switzerland in the round of 16. It seems like Italy should be happy to even just make the World Cup, and if they get in, it’s hard to see them making a real run.
20. Sweden
Star man: Alexander Isak (Newcastle)
Fact to know: Sweden’s Euro 2024 qualifying play was such a disaster that they finished nine points behind Austria and 10 behind Belgium, failing to make the playoff round
Sweden’s Euros qualifying campaign was a calamity, but if you’re simply looking at their squad on paper, they jump off the page as a really talented team. The strike partnership of Viktor Gyokeres and Isak, along with the pair of Tottenham midfielders Lucas Bergvall and Dejan Kulusevski, looks like the core of a really competitive team. The questions are at the other end of the pitch, where there’s considerably less top European talent. In a competitive group with the reliable Swiss and organized Slovenia, Sweden’s path to the final 48 isn’t obvious. But if they do end up in a playoff, in theory they’ll be one of the most capable teams.
After failing to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and 2024 Euros, Sweden now has a lot of in-form club players. Isak in particular stands out, having finished second behind Mohamed Salah in the Premier League Golden Boot race with 23 goals.
19. Türkiye
Star man: Arda Guler (Real Madrid)
Fact to know: Everyone will pick them as their dark horse next June, as is tradition
The next three teams on this list all face real challenges in qualifying for the World Cup because of how difficult the path is in UEFA. Türkiye were paired with Spain in qualifying and will almost certainly finish second in the group as a result. That means they’ll probably go to the playoff, but they do have as much talent as anyone in that pool of competition. We saw the highs and lows of Türkiye in the Euros, where they lost sloppily to Portugal but beat Austria in a thriller. Consecutive dominant Nations League wins against Hungary in March portend well for a potential World Cup playoff.
As always with Türkiye, the question is about defense. But with midfielders Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu and a bunch of intriguing attacking dribblers, they’ll be a difficult team to beat, should they make the field. A true wild card, as always.
18. Austria
Star man: Marcel Sabitzer (Borussia Dortmund)
Fact to know: Austria hasn’t been to the World Cup since 1998
My Euro 2024 dark horse squad is back for another major tournament under manager Ralf Rangnick and his high-intensity pressing tactics. The Austrians ultimately went out in a thriller against Türkiye in the round of 16, but not without beating the Netherlands and Poland first. Their form has been a little less consistent in the Nations League since, but Rangnick generally has them performing above their talent level.
They’ll point to a 5-1 win against Norway in the Nations League to show that they remain a real threat in this second tier of European contenders. Bosnia and Herzegovina is off to a great start in the qualifying group, though, and is currently sitting in first, so there’s work for Austria to do.
17. Croatia
Star man: Joško Gvardiol (Manchester City)
Fact to know: It should come as no surprise that Luka Modric is Croatia’s all-time leader in appearances, with 188
I thought that Croatia’s aging core would be too old to run it back at the 2022 World Cup, and then they made it to the semifinals. Maybe the age of this squad finally caught up to them in the 2024 Euros, where they crashed out in the group stage, but they’ve given a good account of themselves in their Nations League matchups since then. They didn’t advance against France in the quarterfinals, but taking one of the best teams in the world to penalties isn’t a bad result. During the group stage, Croatia beat Poland, drew with Portugal, and were generally competitive in each of their matches.
Croatia thrashed current World Cup qualifying group leaders Czechia on Monday, 5-1, and are now the clear favorite to finish in first place, given that they have two games over the Czechs in hand. The health and fitness of Modric and Mateo Kovacic will be the key to the outcomes of Croatia’s aging midfield in one last dance.
16. Denmark
Star man: Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford)
Fact to know: Christian Eriksen has appeared 143 times for Denmark, the most of any Dane in history
Denmark hasn’t yet begun their World Cup qualifying campaign, but they’ll have to like their chances since they’re in a group with Scotland, Belarus, and Greece. The Danes probably lack the high-profile talent to make a run to the World Cup quarterfinals and beyond, but they are a consistently reliable B-tier European team with an entire lineup of regulars from the big five leagues.
The Danes weren’t particularly impressive at the 2024 Euros, with three draws in three games against Slovenia, England, and Serbia, but they showed that they remain a quality defensive outfit. You should expect them not only to qualify for the World Cup, but also to get out of their group. Keep an eye out for the continued development and emergence of Brentford’s Damsgaard. His creative production took a major leap in the Premier League last season, as he notched 10 assists—tied for fourth most in the league.
15. Japan (Q)
Star man: Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad)
Fact to know: Japan became the first non-hosting team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup when they beat Bahrain in March
Morocco’s run to the semifinals at the 2022 World Cup took up all of the Cinderella oxygen, but Japan was nearly as fascinating in that tournament. They beat Spain and Germany thanks to elite out of possession defending and excellent direct counterattacking. They also lost to Costa Rica, one of the weakest teams in the tournament. Japan still profiles as something of a scrappy, transitional team, but they’ll be a pesky underdog against whichever top favorite they meet.
The Japanese had a very smooth path through the qualifiers in Asia, with just three goals conceded in 10 matches. They just smacked Indonesia 6-0 on Tuesday. With the likes of Kubo, Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, and Liverpool’s Wataru Endō, Japan have more talent on paper than the majority of the Asian teams headed to the World Cup.
14. Ecuador (Q)
Star man: Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea)
Fact to know: This is only the fifth time Ecuador has ever reached the World Cup. They’ve had just one knockout appearance, in 2006.
What is the second-best team in South America? If you went by talent, you’d probably say Brazil. If you went by recent Copa Ámerica results, you could make a case for Colombia. But what if I told you that the second-best team—at least in World Cup qualifying—was actually Ecuador? They have allowed five total goals in 16 matches and have totaled the second-most points, behind Argentina. Ecuador also came the closest to beating Argentina at the Copa Ámerica last year, when they lost to Emiliano Martinez in a penalty shoot-out.
The Ecuadoreans aren’t flashy or particularly impressive on paper. But they have lost only twice in qualifying. Bayer Leverkusen’s Piero Hincapié, PSG’s Willian Pacho, Chelsea’s Caicedo, and Brighton’s Pervis Estupiñán make up a really solid defensive core.
13. Belgium
Star man: Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City, for now, but probably Napoli soon)
Fact to know: Romelu Lukaku has had 89 goals for Belgium in his career, which is more than double any other Belgian in history. Kevin De Bruyne is third with 31.
We’re well past the golden generation of Belgian stars who emerged in the mid-2010s, but that doesn’t mean Belgium is no longer a player on the world stage. De Bruyne’s time as a Premier League star is likely coming to an end, but he’s still one of the most creative and technically gifted passers in the world. His game is well suited to international tournaments. The same is true for box-to-box midfielder Youri Tielemans. There will certainly be questions about how the Belgians will defend next summer—the top-level talent is lacking there—but a team with elite dribbler Jeremy Doku, De Bruyne, Tielemans, and the enigmatic Lukaku (who bagged 24 goal contributions in Serie A for title winner Napoli) will have no issues producing chances.
Belgium was put in a pretty friendly qualifying group with North Macedonia, Wales, Kazakhstan, and Liechtenstein and should have no issues directly qualifying. They’re not a contender to win the whole thing, but a deep underdog run can’t be counted out.
12. Morocco
Star man: Achraf Hakimi (PSG)
Fact to know: Morocco made history by becoming the first African team to reach the semifinals of a World Cup in 2022
The Cinderella darlings of the 2022 World Cup are back with a similarly talented core group of players, as well as the same manager, Walid Regragui. Morocco rode its disciplined defensive structure and quality counterattacking to victories against Belgium, Spain, and Portugal in Qatar. They ultimately lost to France in the semifinal. Then, naturally, they followed that up with a shocking 2-0 loss to South Africa in the round of 16 of AFCON 2023. Still, Morocco’s World Cup run is further proof that you don’t need to dominate possessions to be successful in the international game, and having the ball is often overrated when analyzing team quality.
With five wins in the first five qualifying matches, Morocco is on a path to comfortable qualification for the World Cup. Morocco is hosting AFCON 2025 in December, which will give African teams major preparation for the tournament.
11. Switzerland
Star man: Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen)
Fact to know: I’m still expecting Xherdan Shaqiri to show up and score his usual banger out of nowhere, but he has indeed retired from the national team
Switzerland has been the pinnacle of consistency in past World Cups. It’s lost in the round of 16 in four of the past five tournaments. The main core of players that defined the recent generation has aged a bit, but younger reinforcements helped push the team to the quarterfinals at the 2024 Euros. Switzerland dominated Italy and outplayed England last summer and came within a penalty shoot-out of the semifinal. Emerging winger Dan Ndoye and dynamite forward Breel Embolo provide the Swiss with a decent amount of attacking talent.
They’re not flashy or particularly impressive on paper, but Switzerland has always been a cohesive squad anchored by the still reliable Xhaka and Remo Freuler in midfield. Manchester City centerback Manuel Akanji gives them real pedigree on defense. Switzerland was placed in a competitive qualifying group with Sweden and Slovenia but will back themselves to finish in the top spot.
10. Uruguay
Star man: Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)
Fact to know: Uruguay has roughly the same population as Connecticut and is the smallest—and first!—nation to ever win the World Cup
After losing in the 2021 Copa Ámerica quarterfinals and following it up with a World Cup group stage exit in 2022, Uruguay brought on Marcelo Bielsa to help the proud footballing nation rediscover its identity. They lost a tightly contested Copa semifinal to Colombia last summer, but beating the United States and Brazil in that tournament was a step in the right direction.
Uruguay’s path through CONMEBOL qualifying has been more of a mixed bag. They began well but now have had just two wins in their 11 games since the Copa Ámerica. The reason to bet on Uruguay is the team’s overall talent. They have a ton of midfield quality and depth from Real Madrid’s Valverde, Tottenham’s Rodrigo Bentancur, and Manchester United’s Manuel Ugarte, among others. It’s a hardworking group that presses with relentless energy and defends well. The form of enigmatic attacker Darwin Núñez could be the key to Uruguay’s goal-scoring explosiveness—because right now, it looks like they’ll be playing a lot of low-scoring grinders in the World Cup.
9. Colombia
Star man: Luis Diáz (Liverpool)
Fact to know: James Rodríguez is second of all time in goals for Colombia, with 29, behind only Radamel Falcao
After missing out on Qatar 2022, Colombia has been one of the best teams in international football for three years. They went unbeaten in 28 consecutive matches before losing the Copa Ámerica final to Argentina in extra time last summer. Since that final, they’ve had a significant downturn in form. Colombia has had just one win in eight matches in CONMEBOL qualifying since October, and they’ve dropped to sixth in the table—the final spot for automatic qualification. They’re safe for now, but a loss at Venezuela in the final round of qualifying matches in September could see them fall to the inter-confederation playoff.
It’s been 11 years since Rodríguez broke onto the world scene with his sensational performance at the 2014 World Cup. Rodríguez can’t run like he used to and plays club soccer in the relatively weak Mexican league, but he’s still a superb dead-ball specialist, and he was the best player in the Copa Àmerica last summer.
8. Netherlands
Star man: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Fact to know: The Dutch have lost all three World Cup finals they’ve played in; they’re the only nation to have reached three finals with no wins
The Netherlands made it to the 2024 Euro semifinals even though their first-choice midfielders, Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners, weren’t available. Without those two, the Dutch struggled to control games. With those central midfielders now fit and attacking midfielders Tijjani Reijnders and Xavi Simons joining them in the lineup, the Dutch are a well-balanced team with a ton of defensive experience and enough attacking output to challenge the elite tier of contenders in the World Cup.
Cody Gakpo has been good but not great in his time at Liverpool, but he’s been a major international tournament star for the Dutch. He scored three goals at the 2022 World Cup and three in last year’s Euros—plus, he created the late winner that was ruled an own goal in the quarterfinal against Türkiye.
The Dutch kicked off their qualifying campaign with a comfortable 2-0 win against Finland and are favorites to win their group and qualify directly.
7. Brazil (Q)
Star man: Vinicius Júnior (Real Madrid)
Fact to know: Brazil has made at least the quarterfinals in every World Cup since 1994
Don Carlo Ancelotti will be Brazil’s fourth manager (including caretakers) of this World Cup cycle since Tite’s departure after Qatar. It’s easy to forget just how quickly everything turned for Brazil during and after the 2022 World Cup. When Neymar scored an incredible team goal in extra time against Croatia, that was supposed to set up a historic clash with Argentina in the semifinal. Brazil was the oddsmakers’ favorite to win the World Cup at the time. But then they conceded a late equalizer to Croatia, lost in the penalty shoot-out, and haven’t been the same since.
Neymar’s torn ACL and the team’s managerial uncertainty contributed to a poor showing at the Copa Ámerica. Brazil drew with Costa Rica and Colombia in the group stage before losing to Uruguay in the quarterfinal. Brazil could probably field two different teams of players who’d be competitive in this World Cup, but it’s not clear what the best 11 is. They’ve won just two of their last six in qualifying, and Vinicius Júnior and Raphina are the only locked-down starters among their main attackers.
6. Germany
Star man: Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen)
Fact to know: Former German striker Miroslav Klose holds the record for most goals scored in World Cup tournaments (16)
Germany ultimately lost at home to Spain in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals, but that was the highest-quality match of the tournament. Germany has failed to escape the group stage of the past two World Cups and also lost in the round of 16 at Euro 2021. By the time the World Cup kicks off, we won’t have seen the Germans in the semifinals of a major tournament in a decade (since their Euro 2016 loss to France).
Germany is spearheaded by two attacking midfield superstars, Jamal Musiala and Wirtz. Manager Julian Nagelsmann plays a system that enables both to get on the ball a ton, and the technical quality of the German midfield and attack is sublime. Yet questions about the strikers and the defense that have plagued Germany for a decade will likely still exist entering 2026. The combination of Kai Havertz and Niclas Fullkrug up top was decent but not great last summer. But the emergence and development of Stuttgart forward Nick Woltemade is a major thing to watch between now and next year.
Nagelsmann is an excellent tactician, and Germany has a sky-high ceiling. But the defense just conceded eight goals in four games against Italy (twice), Portugal, and France. They’ll need to shore things up if they want any chance of going deep next year.
5. Portugal
Star man: Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United)
Fact to know: Cristiano Ronaldo is Portugal’s all-time leading goal scorer, with 138 goals. Second place has 47.
Even though they won the Nations League on Sunday in an Iberian clash with Spain, Portugal’s future is uncertain. Will Cristiano Ronaldo be leading the line next summer, when he’s 41? Ronaldo was detrimental to Portugal’s performance in the 2024 Euros, but he’s been productive in recent qualifying matches and scored the crucial equalizer on Sunday. It’s a difficult decision because the squad has a lot of talented attacking players, but on the other hand … it’s Ronaldo.
The other question is about the team’s manager. Rumors have been flying that Roberto Martínez may not lead Portugal next summer, even though he delivered the trophy on Sunday. Could José Mourinho join his native country’s team? Given the squad’s talent, you’d maybe want a more possession-based manager, but you can’t deny Mourinho’s tournament bona fides. Of the top 10 teams in these rankings, Portugal is the most difficult to judge. A new manager and tactical approach could unlock so much in this team, considering the passing range of Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, and Fernandes. They also have the rangy defending of Joao Neves, the left back marauding of Nuno Mendes, and a reliable goalkeeper in Diogo Costa.
Based on its talent level, Portugal underperformed in the 2022 World Cup and 2024 Euros. They’ll be back with one of the most stacked rosters again next summer, but there’s a lot to iron out before then.
4. England
Star man: Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
Fact to know: England didn’t qualify for the World Cup in 1994, when it was last hosted in America
It’s a new era of English football under manager Thomas Tuchel. Or maybe it will just be more of the same. England and Gareth Southgate parted ways after the team lost the final of the 2024 Euros. It was hard to criticize the results Southgate achieved: consecutive Euro finals and a World Cup quarterfinal and semifinal appearance. But it was easy to argue with the team’s performances during his tenure. Few teams were less imaginative in possession and less inspiring at goal scoring (given their talent) than Southgate’s England.
England had issues producing anything from the left side of the pitch in the 2024 Euros. The emergence of Arsenal’s Myles Lewis-Skelly as a hyper-versatile left back could be key to fixing this issue. The next challenge: Can Tuchel solve the fact that England’s key attacking players—Kane, Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, and Phil Foden—so often like to occupy the same spaces? And will super-passer Trent Alexander-Arnold, fresh off a dream move to Real Madrid, now have a place on this team after the departure of Southgate, who never really favored him? There’s a ton of talent and depth on this squad for Tuchel to tinker with, but England is still looking for the right chemistry and mix of attacking dynamism and defensive solidity.
3. France
Star man: Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
Fact to know: France finished third in the 2025 UEFA Nations League, beating Germany on Sunday
France made it to the semifinals at the 2024 Euros but was still one of the most disappointing teams: They scored only four total goals across six games—and three of them were either own goals and penalties. Their recent Nations League performances against Croatia in the first leg of the quarterfinal and Spain in the semifinals won’t do much to alleviate concerns about this team, either. At the moment, it looks as if the whole is less than the sum of its parts under manager Didier Deschamps.
But the sum of the parts is truly an embarrassment of riches. In the Nations League semifinal, France started a front four of Mbappé, Désiré Doué, Michael Olise, and Ousmane Dembélé. Yet France trailed 5-1 at one point in the second half. Les Bleus will enter next year’s World Cup as one of the favorites because, despite their recent struggles, they have an overwhelming amount of talent at both scoring goals and defending. But finding the correct balance has been difficult for France since the end of the 2022 World Cup. They should have no issues qualifying in a UEFA group with Iceland, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan, and it would surprise no one to see them lift the trophy next summer. But there is plenty to watch for between now and next June.
2. Argentina (Q)
Star man: Lionel Messi (Inter Miami)
Fact to know: Emi Martinez has gone 4-0 with Argentina in penalty shoot-outs in the past three international tournaments
The only other team that has a convincing case for the top spot in these rankings is Argentina, the defending world champions. Argentina didn’t just win the 2022 World Cup final against France but bookended that historic triumph with Copa Ámerica titles in both 2021 and 2024. Argentina is currently 10 points clear of second place in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, and they’ve beaten Brazil both home and away en route to a comfortable qualification. South America used to be Brazil, Argentina, and everyone else. Now, it’s just Argentina and everyone else.
The biggest question mark for Argentina between now and next summer is the state of Messi. He hasn’t committed to playing yet (let’s be honest—he’ll be there), but what will his level of performance be if he does? Argentina is one of the better defensive teams in the world, with just nine goals conceded in 16 qualifying matches, but Messi was their most important player in the 2022 World Cup. They won without a ton of contributions from him at the 2024 Copa, but their creative output did suffer as a result.
1. Spain
Star man: Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)
Fact to know: Spain has had seven penalty shoot-outs since the 2018 World Cup and lost four of them, including in Sunday’s Nations League final against Portugal
Spain was inarguably the best team at the 2024 Euros, winning all seven matches and beating heavyweights like Germany, France, England, Italy, and Croatia. Spain also beat France in a 5-4 thriller in the recent Nations League semifinal, and while they ended up losing the final to Portugal in a penalty shoot-out, they remain the top team on this list. The arrow for Spain continues to point upward, boosted by its ever-reliable midfield and dynamic young wingers. Yamal has announced himself as legitimately one of the best players in the world—maybe even the best—at the ripe old age of 17.
The emergence of new Real Madrid signing Dean Huijsen as a reliable center back could be key given the issues Spain has had with consistency at that position in the past few major tournaments. Mikel Oyarzabal isn’t the most traditional striker option, but he’s been a solid goal scorer and creator for Spain, notching three goals and two assists in the final four matches of the Nations League. The return of Ballon d’Or winner Rodri at the base of the midfield won’t hurt, either. It’s a loaded roster with depth and superstar talent that should enter as the favorite.
