The most popular soccer league in the world returns on Friday at the Theatre of Dreams as Fulham visits Manchester United. If it feels like the soccer season is never-ending after the European Championships, Copa América, and Olympic international tournaments all summer, you’re correct.
Just 89 days after Manchester City won a fourth straight Premier League title, the English top flight is back for the first of 38 matchweeks. While many in England remain on summer holiday, the clubs have been busy with preseason tours and final preparations for the grueling marathon season that will go into late May 2025.
To preview the 2024-25 Premier League season, I ranked all 20 teams by posing the biggest question facing each club.
20. Will Southampton’s possession-based system hold up as the Saints don’t have much of the ball?
Southampton finished with 3.9 percent more possessions than every other team in the Championship last year and also finished 14th out of 24 teams in goals conceded. That combination of possession reliance and shaky defense without the ball doesn’t bode well for them, given the massive uptick in opposition talent they are about to face.
We also have two full seasons of poor shot stopping from goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu. The Saints will need to overachieve to stay in the league.
19. Can Ipswich Town do the almost impossible again?
Every team in the Premier League has a Transfermarkt value of at least $220 million for their squad, except one: Ipswich Town sits 20th, at $100 million. Not even Billy Beane could fathom a rise like that of Ipswich Town, which rose from League One to the Premier League with back-to-back promotions for only the third time in history. I’ll be rooting alongside superfan Ed Sheeran for this underdog story, but the rest of the league is too strong to see them competing in it.
If they do manage to pull it off, highly sought-after manager Kieran McKenna should be up for knighthood.
18. Can Jamie Vardy find the fountain of youth for Leicester City?
I have no idea what the result of Leicester City’s profit and sustainability rules breach will be, nor how many points will be deducted. What I do know is that Vardy appeared to be in real decline two years ago when he scored just six goals as Leicester was relegated to the second division. He had a stellar season at 36 with 18 goals last year and now returns to the PL to try to re-create the old magic once again.
Vardy, Patson Daka, and incoming loan Adam Hlozek are the trio expected to produce goals for Leicester. They got rid of their best player in Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and could be truly doomed to relegation if the point deduction reaches the rumored double digits.
17. Can Wolves re-create their giant-killing success, or is relegation a real possibility?
Wolves got a career season from Hwang Hee-chan at striker, beat Manchester City, did the double over Spurs and Chelsea, and still finished 15th in points amassed last year. Now they don’t have Pedro Neto, who was their best player in the limited minutes he did play. Given how much the Wolves limped to the finish line, you have to wonder if relegation is really in the picture for them this season.
The rolling expected goals chart from McLachApp paints an ominous picture for Gary O’Neil’s side. He came in right before the season started, and the Wolves rode the “new-manager bounce” to some great early season results, but the defense relied on excellent goalkeeping from José Sá. No non-relegated team had a worse xG difference than the Wolves last year.
16. Can Fulham replace João Palhinha in midfield?
If 75 percent of the world’s covered by water, then defensive midfielder João Palhinha covered the other 25 percent for the last few seasons at Fulham. He was sent to Bayern Munich, and while he is a limited player in possession, there were few better as pure destroyers of opposition attacks than Palhinha. He had 194 tackles plus interceptions in 2022-23, which was 59 more than every other Fulham player. Last year, Antonee Robinson challenged him for the team lead, but Palhinha’s 198 still ranked first and was more than double Fulham’s third-highest player (Timothy Castagne, 87).
Fulham has a big hole to fill in midfield, and that will put even more pressure on its center backs.
15. Can Nottingham Forest solve its goalkeeper issues?
Nottingham Forest’s goalkeepers were so bad at shot stopping last year that Forest conceded an extra 17.8 goals by the post-shot xG estimates. They tried three different goalkeepers, and none of them were any good; comparing xG allowed to actual goals made a pretty solid defense look quite terrible. Matt Turner appears out of favor with manager Nuno Espírito Santo, Odysseas Vlachodimos was sent to Newcastle, and Matz Sels remains at the club after he was acquired on deadline day.
The Trees obtained Carlos Miguel from Corinthians to compete for the starting job, although Matz Sels may still be the preferred top choice. Keep a close eye on the goalies because, otherwise, Forest could push near the top half with league-average goalkeeper play.
14. How is Everton planning to improve its open-play goal tally?
Everton scored 19 goals from open play and 19 from set plays last year. Only Arsenal scored more from set plays, and no team scored fewer from open play. Relying that much on set pieces isn’t a sustainable strategy given how much more volatile they can be. The Toffees spent over $19 million on Marseille’s Iliman Ndiaye, who scored three goals last year.
It’s true that the Toffees badly underperformed their xG last year from open play, but they also produced a low xG per shot and never quite had a player to get on the ball and make things happen. Sean Dyche will keep the defensive floor high and keep them in the league, but Everton will probably underperform in front of goal again.
13. Will running it back again catch up to Brentford?
The Bees made two notable summer additions in forward Igor Thiago from Club Brugge and attacking midfielder Fabio Carvalho from Fulham. Thiago scored twice in a preseason friendly against AFC Wimbledon but is now injured and will miss the first two to three months of the season. Carvalho has barely played the last couple of seasons and spent last year on loan in the Championship. I’m not one to question Brentford’s business or how they run their club, but no central midfield or defensive additions after the apparent regression downward last season should sound some alarm bells.
Brentford will likely keep Ivan Toney; they still have Thomas Frank as manager, and he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. If you go by xG difference, Brentford should be just fine this year after finishing last year with a roughly even xG difference. However, Brentford’s squad is aging, and they must freshen up before the cliff potentially arrives.
12. As everyone’s favorite dark horse, will Crystal Palace live up to the hype?
No team has better epitomized the mid-table than Crystal Palace in the last decade. Since returning to the Premier League in 2013-14, the Eagles have finished between 10th and 15th every single season. Because of how Palace finished last year under new manager Oliver Glasner, there’s real buzz in South London about the Eagles. Only Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City amassed more points than Palace after Glasner took over in mid-February. The Eagles still have major transfer questions facing their squad, though. They sent Michael Olise to Bayern Munich and may still send out Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi before the transfer window closes. The emergence of Jean-Philippe Mateta and Adam Wharton toward the end of last season has helped shift the Palace hype train into overdrive entering this season.
I’m always skeptical when everyone hitches their wagon to the same buzz team, and Palace is unlikely to take a step forward, but I think they’ll be well safe from the relegation zone.
11. How much will West Ham’s new signings help fix the broken defense?
The Hammers had one of the worst five defenses in the PL last year by expected goals allowed despite a highly passive approach out of possession from David Moyes that prioritized defensive solidity. Moyes is gone, Julen Lopetegui is now the manager, and the Hammers have invested a ton of money to fix the holes in the squad.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka has his limits in possession but is an excellent defensive right back. Max Kilman and Jean-Clair Todibo will help West Ham’s box defense. We know that the front three of Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus, and Lucas Paquetá can create without much help or support, but now they have a target man in Niclas Fullkrug to play off of. West Ham has splashed the cash and has a chance to be much better, even if it doesn’t show up on the table.
10. What will Bournemouth do to replace Dominic Solanke?
Solanke’s best ability for Bournemouth was his relentless availability. He scored 19 league goals last season, and, more importantly, he’s played all but five total league matches over the past three seasons. The Cherries are expected to bring in another striker to fill his role, and the reality of Solanke is that his per-match statistics weren’t all that impressive.
Solanke is the kind of player Bournemouth can successfully re-create in the aggregate. The belief in the wingers to continue to be excellent outlet options is why I remain somewhat bullish on Bournemouth to push for a top-half finish.
9. Will Evan Ferguson or any other Brighton youngsters break out?
Ferguson was your favorite pundit’s favorite breakout player last season, myself included. Ferguson scored six goals in 10 matches worth of minutes as a 17-year-old and emerged late as Brighton surged to a top-six spot and a Europa League berth. There was a lot of hype surrounding the Seagulls last season, and Ferguson was a major reason. He finished last year with … six goals.
Fast-forward a year, and Roberto De Zerbi has departed the club. Brighton has a new manager, Fabian Hurzeler, whom it plucked from relative obscurity (St. Pauli in the German second division). The Seagulls have two new winger prospects in Yankuba Minteh and Ibrahim Osman. Their potential for a bounce back depends on how effective these youngsters can be as they develop.
8. How will Aston Villa balance European obligations?
Unai Emery has proved himself to be a competent navigator of European competitions. Many will identify Aston Villa as a potential Champions League knockout sleeper because of his record at Sevilla and Villarreal. That may be true, but it also might hurt Villa’s performances in the Premier League. Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby left Villa, and while there are plenty of new bodies coming in, Emery’s system is precise and will be relying on younger and more unproven talent for crucial minutes.
The Villans conceded 1.93 xG per match after January 1 last season, which is a sign that opposing teams have started to solve their defensive and out-of-possession approach. Combine that with Ollie Watkins’s attempt to repeat a career season, plus extra minutes on the legs, and you see where things could go awry for Villa.
7. Has Manchester United actually improved its defense ahead of this year?
Manchester United’s defense reached relegation levels of bad by the end of last year. Even Luton Town and Sheffield United conceded fewer xG per match after March 1 last season. The Red Devils got 18-year-old center back Leny Yoro from Lille, but he’ll miss three months due to foot surgery now. Lisandro Martínez will begin the season healthy, but he has a checkered health record. United improved marginally in the final few games by being more passive out of possession and pressing less, as shown in the Manchester City FA Cup final upset.
The midfield pairing of Casemiro and Kobbie Mainoo had major defensive issues last year, and those two are expected to start the opener on Friday. United could still get Manuel Ugarte to improve the defensive ball winning in midfield. Otherwise, Erik ten Hag’s job will likely rest on Martínez’s health and the shot stopping of André Onana in goal.
6. Will Spurs improve on set pieces defensively?
Tottenham conceded 15.2 xG from set pieces last year and 14 goals. Both were among the worst in the Premier League, and teams clearly had Spurs well-scouted by the end of last year. When opponents crowded goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and took advantage of his mediocre cross-claiming abilities, Tottenham had real issues keeping goals out. Manager Ange Postecoglou insisted in the spring that it wasn’t an issue he was concerned about, but the leaky dead-ball defense has continued into the preseason.
Spurs spent big money on Bournemouth striker Dominic Solanke, and the team has some really intriguing youth prospects in Lucas Bergvall and Archie Gray who could grow into real roles this year. Postecoglou immediately fixed the vibes at Spurs, and he’s won over the fan base with a free-flowing play style. But if Postecoglou doesn’t sort out the defense, Spurs fans will grow impatient with him sooner rather than later.
5. Will Chelsea ever have a functioning squad of players with this strategy?
In the time it took you to get to Chelsea on this list, the Blues have obtained two more players. They haven’t, actually, but they have brought in so many players in the past two years that Knicks guard and Chelsea fan Josh Hart even tweeted that he wishes they had a transfer ban again. They’ve added 10 in total this summer, spending more than $235 million, per Sky Sports. That’s after adding 28 in the first two years since Todd Boehly bought the club.
Chelsea played six preseason friendlies, and while results aren’t all that important, it’s not a great look that it won only one of them. Conceding two to Wrexham, four to Celtic, and four to Manchester City has not been the introduction that new manager Enzo Maresca hoped to make to his team and the fan base.
Any attempt to put together an expected starting XI is silly given how much it’s likely to change as Maresca mixes and matches his players. I’m not sure Chelsea has a reliable center back after Levi Colwill, nor am I sure Maresca is ready to manage a club with this many expectations immediately. But even last year, when seemingly everything went wrong, Chelsea did finish sixth with a clear top-six underlying statistical profile. The Blues could look a bit different with more purchases and sales between now and the end of the month, but they sure will be a fascinating story line to follow.
4. Without European obligations, can Newcastle figure out its defense?
Newcastle’s performances fell off a cliff last November and didn’t improve again until the final six weeks of the season. The Magpies defense ranked 12th in expected goals allowed, but there was a noticeable improvement in their numbers toward the end of the season that should provide some optimism for them now that Newcastle is back to playing just one match per week.
The chart below shows the rolling xG data from McLachApp for the Magpies throughout the season.
They’ve now had back-to-back seasons with excellent xG per shot numbers in attack. They finished fourth in goals scored and fourth in xG created. Alexander Isak is a popular pick for the Golden Boot, if anyone can chase down Erling Haaland.
The return of Sandro Tonali in midfield following his gambling suspension and better injury luck with the defense should contribute to a proper top-four challenge.
3. Can Liverpool make this Arne Slot system work with its current midfield?
Liverpool missed out on signing a game-changing defensive midfielder last year when the Reds added the more attack-minded Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister. To fill the gap, the Reds settled on the small acquisition of Wataru Endo, and he was serviceable as a ball stopper in the middle of the park while Liverpool barely patched together a midfield in Jurgen Klopp’s final season.
Endo has struggled to fit the role that new manager Slot has asked him to fill. Klopp had Liverpool trying to exploit transitional moments as much as possible with extremely aggressive forward passing at all costs. Through the preseason, Slot has preached more pragmatism in possession. Endo has struggled as a midfield possession recycler, and the Reds identified Martín Zubimendi as a perfect tactical fit. Now that he’s denied Liverpool, where do the Reds turn? Running back the same midfield with the departure of Klopp feels like it would be a mistake given how fragile Liverpool’s transition defense was for large stretches of last season.
The attack still has a ton of excellent talent, and more positive health outcomes for Andy Robertson and Diogo Jota could make Liverpool even more threatening. The hole in defensive midfield is clear, though, and it’s one of the main reasons the Reds faded out of the title race in the final month.
2. Will Arsenal score enough goals from open play to top the league?
Arsenal had the third-youngest average age in the Premier League last season, behind only Chelsea and Burnley. The Gunners appear to be a team that could continue its ascension and finally win a title for the first time since 2003-04. The betting markets have them +165 to win the league, just a smidge behind the first team on this list. Arsenal was a bit unfortunate to come up short of the title last year after amassing 89 points and posting the best xG difference per 90 minutes in the league. The Gunners had the league’s best defense, conceding just 27.9 xG in 38 matches despite the massive influx of leaguewide goal scoring.
The Gunners have doubled down on their strength this season with the addition of Bologna defender Riccardo Calafiori. Calafiori is a left back or left center back hybrid who is excellent at carrying the ball forward. He’s fantastic in possession, and an upgrade over Oleksandr Zinchenko and other left back options defensively. Arsenal heavily relied on attacks up the right last season, and Calafiori could help balance them more this season.
Arsenal led the Premier League with 20 set piece goals last season. If those goals dry up a bit, will the Gunners get enough from their strikers (Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz) to keep pace at the top? The Gunners had just the sixth-most xG created from open play last year. Without a big attacking add between now and the transfer window’s close, I think Arsenal will come up just short yet again.
1. Will Manchester City have enough depth to withstand a title campaign?
I am once again picking Manchester City to win the Premier League. Its remarkable inevitability in the English top flight is set to continue for at least one more season, at least until the potential departure of Pep Guardiola (and maybe Kevin De Bruyne?) next summer. But this is the least confidence I’ve had in picking City to win the league preseason since Liverpool topped the table in 2019-20. The Cityzens dealt Julián Álvarez to Atlético Madrid, and he’s City’s most versatile forward. Even if Álvarez may not have been a starter in City’s best XI, his ability to play striker, wide forward, and attacking midfield led him to cover many positions and play 36 league matches with 19 goal contributions last year. His loss is also underrated on the defensive side, as he was often the spear of City’s press out of possession. Erling Haaland has had only one season in his career in which he’s started 30-plus league matches.
The key summer addition is Girona winger Sávio, who gives Guardiola multiple true, dribbly winger options with Jeremy Doku’s emergence and Jack Grealish’s return. The midfield, as currently constructed, is still heavily reliant on 33-year-old Kevin De Bruyne, and there’s no clear understudy for Rodri if he were to go down with an injury in defensive midfield. The lack of depth can still be addressed between now and the closing of the transfer window on August 30, but City’s seen a decline in its pressing intensity and has a youthful challenger nipping at its heels.
