Eleven NBA Observations on the NCAA Tournament, Zach Edey, and Draft Sleepers
Purdue’s star center has cemented his draft stock, but a different big man is the tournament’s biggest riser. Plus, Alabama’s Jalen Brunson clone, an early look at the Final Four, and more.
It’s April! We’ve entered the final stretch of the NBA regular season, and both Final Fours tip off this weekend. It’s the best time of the year for basketball, really. For this week’s column, we’ll focus on some of the most intriguing performances in the men’s NCAA tournament and how they could affect this June’s draft. Let’s dive in.
1. Donovan Clingan is the tournament’s biggest riser.
Going back to school can have its benefits. Just look at Clingan, UConn’s 7-foot-2, 280-pound sophomore center, who is the best player on a team that’s winning by an average of 28 points in the tournament. Clingan entered this season ranked no. 9 on my Big Board but slipped into the teens while recovering from a foot injury. He’s trended back up month by month, though, moving to no. 13 in late February, to no. 8 in late March, and now into the top five in my next update coming later this week.
In a draft class without any sure bets, Clingan stands out because of his bankable skills. It’s safe to say he will be a high-level rim protector with a clear path to potential All-Defensive team consideration. He is also an excellent finisher at the rim, has magnetic hands, and is a smart decision-maker who can make savvy passes in the paint. So, at a minimum, the team drafting Clingan can feel confident it’s getting a center who brings foundational skills at a critical position.
It’s not as if Clingan doesn’t have upside, either. At only 20 years old, he’s made dramatic improvements as a sophomore. He has been a far better defender after cutting down his foul rate, too. And on offense, he’s not just a catch-and-finish guy. The Huskies can throw him the ball in the post and ask him to get a bucket, and they trust him to facilitate from inside or from the elbows.
Most important, Clingan is proving he can thrive while playing heavier minutes. Last year, during UConn’s run to a national championship, Clingan excelled off the bench but averaged only 13.1 minutes per game and played more than 20 minutes only twice all season. This season, with a chance to go back-to-back, he’s up to 22.1 minutes per game and has made a significant leap on the court. With a potential matchup against NC State’s DJ Burns or Purdue’s Zach Edey in the title game, Clingan may need to play even more, facing a critical test NBA teams would love to see him pass.
This draft is deep with quality role players who could carve out long careers on successful teams. But it’s lacking a clear-cut top prospect. If Clingan continues on this trajectory, perhaps it could be him.
2. UConn’s entire starting five could get drafted.
Clingan is the best player on UConn, but I currently have his freshman teammate Stephon Castle ranked higher on my Big Board. At 6-foot-6, Castle is arguably the best perimeter defender in the draft class, as he’s shown in the tournament. In the second round, he held Northwestern’s leading scorer, Boo Buie, to zero baskets in the first half. In the Elite Eight, he helped hold Illinois’s Terrence Shannon, a 23-point-per-game scorer, to just 2-for-12. On Saturday, Castle will likely get a chance to contain Mark Sears, Alabama’s star 6-foot-1 point guard, who’s been averaging 24.3 points in the tourney.
Castle’s surefire skill is his defense. But he’s also a strong downhill attacker with a good feel for playmaking. He can get to his spots on the floor, but he needs to improve as a shooter. He has the highest ceiling of any Huskies player but lacks a jumper, making him a raw prospect compared to his teammates, all of whom could be selected in this draft.
Castle’s tag team partner on defense is fifth-year senior Tristen Newton, a stellar defender in his own right who also facilitates reliably (and also needs to improve his 3-point jumper). Castle, Newton, and Clingan are supported by shooters: Fifth-year senior shooting guard Cam Spencer is a career 41.6 percent guy from the 3-point range, and sophomore forward Alex Karaban has made 39.1 percent of his 3s in two years.
In June, if they elect to declare, all five of them could hear their names being called. It’s no wonder the Huskies are blowing everyone out as prohibitive favorites to win it all.
3. Alabama’s Mark Sears is a Jalen Brunson clone.
As a left-handed, 6-foot-1, 185-pound point guard, Mark Sears looks like Jalen Brunson, moves like Jalen Brunson, and plays like Jalen Brunson. Brunson is about an inch taller and was about 10 pounds heavier when he was drafted in 2018, but their games are extremely similar.
Watch any highlight, and it’s easy to see the similarities. Much like Brunson, Sears is a deadeye shooter from 3 both off movement and off the dribble, while he also showcases hard-nosed at-rim finishing skills. He uses crafty moves to create space for his own shot or deliver the ball to his teammates. Brunson was a bit more deceptive when operating from midrange at Villanova, but Sears is asked to play a different style since Alabama emphasizes layups and 3s while ignoring the midrange. Sears had shown more shiftiness at his prior school, Ohio, before his transfer in 2022.
In my 2018 NBA Draft Guide, my summary line for Brunson read: “A classic point guard prospect that’ll fall in the draft because of his age, then play 10-plus years in the NBA.” That prediction has aged well, but even I undersold him. Brunson was selected 33rd and will be in the league for a long time, but he’s also blossomed into an All-Star who’s averaging nearly 30 points per game while leading a contender.
As my Mismatch cohost Chris Vernon said last week, “You’ve gotta think to yourself, Brunson’s immense success helps [Sears].” I think so, too. Sears will skyrocket into the middle of the first round in my next Big Board update, and he might end up even higher if he aces his big test against UConn this weekend. Sears will need to get by Castle and Newton and score over Clingan.
It’ll be a monumental challenge that’ll propel him up draft boards if he succeeds. But it’ll be understandable if he falls short or even struggles, considering he’s one of the only sources of creation for Alabama. I still love his overall game aside from scoring. He can pass. He competes on defense. He’s a leader. And yes, it helps that we’ve seen a player a lot like him blossom into a star. Even if Sears ends up only half as great as Brunson, he could still be “a classic point guard prospect that’ll fall in the draft because of his age, then play 10-plus years in the NBA.”
4. Examining Alabama’s other NBA prospects.
Sears is the star on Bama, but here are three other potential NBA prospects to keep an eye on:
Rylan Griffen, sophomore wing: Griffen has made 39.1 percent of his 3s this season while posting a positive assist-to-turnover ratio and regularly defending opponents’ best players. It’s likely too early for the sophomore to declare for the draft, but another game or two like his 19-point banger against North Carolina could make him think about testing the waters.
Grant Nelson, senior forward: Nelson popped back onto the draft radar last week after an underwhelming senior transfer season. The 6-foot-11 senior scored 24 points against North Carolina, drilled a pair of 3s, blocked five shots, and ripped down 12 rebounds. It was a dominant effort. He hasn’t found any 3-point shooting consistency in college, but he’s shot 75.3 percent from the line in four years (including 80.8 percent this season), so there’s hope that he can find his stroke long term as he did in the Sweet 16.
Jarin Stevenson, freshman forward: It’s way too soon for Stevenson to enter the draft. He played just 16.8 minutes per game off the bench for Alabama this season. However, in the Elite Eight, when Nelson was hampered by foul trouble, it was the 6-foot-11 Stevenson who stepped up by hitting five triples and blocking two shots. There’s a chance he’s actually the best prospect on the team, but he could use more seasoning after turning just 18 in October.
5. Zach Edey cements his stock.
Standing 7-foot-3 with a 7-foot-11 wingspan and weighing 300 pounds, Edey will be the biggest player in the NBA next season. There’s still unfinished business in college, though, with Purdue making its first Final Four since 1980. The Purdue senior center could become the second player in college history to win the Wooden Award in back-to-back years, after Ralph Sampson was named college basketball’s most outstanding player twice in the 1980s. But for NBA fans, the question is whether Edey will be any good at the next level.
Slow-footed big men have been phased out of the league in recent years because of their limitations on defense, and maybe that’ll end up being a fatal flaw for Edey. But he’s improved his mobility a lot at Purdue, and he’s an imposing rim protector. Just look at what he did late in the game against Tennessee on Sunday, coming up with a clutch block against potential lottery pick Dalton Knecht. Photos capture the skill involved with this block more than video:
Edey often doesn’t make strong contests like this because Purdue desperately needs him in position on the other end. They are hopeless without him. He cannot risk falling into foul trouble, either, but his presence alone deters opponents from testing the rim. Playing this way, Purdue had the nation’s 16th-ranked defensive rating, per KenPom, and defensively the team was 11.6 points per 100 possessions better with Edey on the floor than off, per CBB Analytics.
But blocks like the one against Knecht make me wonder whether there’s a chance Edey could follow the trajectory of someone like Brook Lopez, a massive center who began his career as a defensive liability but then transformed into a great defender once he was in the right situation. Lopez is so big and so smart inside that he becomes a high-level player in the right circumstances, as a drop defender when surrounded by lengthy teammates. Edey will in all likelihood be drafted by a team that also tries to put him in the right situation. Otherwise, why take such a specific player? A team will pair him with another big who can defend on the perimeter, as Giannis Antetokounmpo does next to Lopez. Think about pairing him with the Thunder and Chet Holmgren, or with the Heat and Bam Adebayo, or even with the Bucks themselves and Giannis if they want a Lopez apprentice.
Offensively, Edey can’t yet space the floor like Lopez, but he’s a solid free throw shooter, at 70.5 percent in his college career, and has a soft touch on his hook shots. He shoots his 3s well in warm-ups and made one that banked off the glass this season. Perhaps he could tap into a perimeter shot down the line.
But for Purdue, Edey primarily sticks to dunks around the rim. Not just because he’s massive, but because he has the skill to put the ball on the floor for a few dribbles and put a move on a player. He gobbles up rebounds—not even fellow first-round prospect Kel’el Ware stood a chance against him during the Big Ten’s season. He destroys switches on smaller opponents, whether he’s finishing or drawing a foul. Purdue’s Braden Smith has also helped demonstrate Edey’s potential on ball screens, but he could develop into even more of a force with a more spaced-out court and more talented teammates on the perimeter.
After dropping a career-high 40 points on Tennessee, Edey is now averaging 30 points and 16.3 rebounds during Purdue’s tournament run. NC State will challenge him with a beefy interior presence in DJ Burns and a speedy guard in DJ Horne. And if Purdue wins, a loaded UConn team could wait in the final. There’s still more for Edey to prove, but he’s done enough to make himself a first-rounder.
6. DJ Burns vs. Zach Edey will be awesome.
“One Shining Moment” will feature NC State’s DJ Burns no matter what the 11th seed does against Purdue this Saturday:
Burns plays like he went to the Zach Randolph school of post moves. Watching Sunday’s Duke–NC State game was truly a joy. A fun Synergy stat behind these wild touch shots: In two years with NC State, Burns has made 58.6 percent of his floaters and 49.6 percent of his hook shots. So it’s not like he just got hot against Duke, who disrespected him by not even covering him with a double-team in the second half, when NC State kept feeding Burns over and over and over.
It was a tough loss for Duke, but fans win with this Final Four matchup and a Burns-Edey showdown. Burns is listed at 275 pounds, but he looks like he isn’t giving up any weight to Edey. An earthquake might register when these two colossal big men clash in Arizona.
7. Should Duke’s top prospects return to school?
Kyle Filipowski got eaten alive by Burns in the Elite Eight, but he was much better in the Sweet 16, scoring 16 points, creating his own shot off the dribble, and hitting three 3s. If he’s able to find consistency from the perimeter, he could end up being a dynamic offensive presence in the NBA.
With that said, I can’t forget what Burns did to him. He used power to plow through Filipowski repeatedly and speed to spin around him. Filipowski had no answers.
Now, this isn’t to say I have no hope for the Duke big man on defense. In fact, it’s the opposite. Filipowski is coordinated and more than doubled his blocks per game as a sophomore. He brings some scheme versatility, too, which is precisely why I wonder whether he should go back to school another year. Right now, he’s probably a late lottery pick at best. If he returns, Duke will be loaded next season, and he could be surrounded by the types of supporting pieces who could boost his stock.
Filipowski would share a frontcourt with a dominant defensive presence in Cooper Flagg, the type of transformative player who could help enhance Filipowski’s own abilities.
The risk is that Duke is bringing in multiple five-star recruits who play center: Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba. Filipowski would start the year ahead of them on the depth chart, but the Blue Devils would have more frontcourt options. Sharpshooter Kon Knueppel and go-to scorer Isaiah Evans are the other inbound five-star recruits. They’ll need a playmaker to help create opportunities for them, which could make Filipowski’s versatile skill set more valuable than ever.
It’s a different situation in Duke’s backcourt. Jeremy Roach is graduating, so there’s a huge opening at point guard. Could Jared McCain stay another year for the opportunity to lead Duke’s offense? McCain flourished in the tournament, draining 3s in an assortment of ways while making good decisions as a passer. But there’s room for him to grow as an overall playmaker, which could boost his draft stock. Perhaps guards Caleb Foster or Tyrese Proctor could also return? Foster was sidelined by a stress fracture, so he will probably be back. Duke fans might prefer to see Proctor go after his 0-for-9 performance against NC State. All of those shots should have gone to McCain.
But no matter what decisions Duke’s potential returners make, there’s a need for playmaking next to Flagg. Whoever seizes that role could end up leading a favorite to the Final Four and boosting their own draft stock in the process.
8. Harrison Ingram made the right call …
Ingram was one of my favorite players at Stanford in his two years there. At 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds, he often ran point guard for them. Synergy Sports says he ran 8.5 pick-and-rolls per game there, but after he transferred to North Carolina for his junior season, that number plummeted all the way to 0.6. Seriously. The Tar Heels totally transformed his role, turning him into a playmaking hub out of the post and the elbows and a knockdown spot-up shooter who made 38.5 percent of his 3s.
Ingram helped his NBA stock in the closing weeks of the season. He hit five 3s to beat Duke in early February, then made more than half of his attempts in North Carolina’s three tournament games while also distributing the ball, rebounding, and defending multiple positions. Ingram will need to prove that his jump shot is for real in predraft workouts. But it looks like transferring was the right move.
9. … Matas Buzelis likely did not.
The G League Ignite quietly went 2-32 this season before the NBA decided to fold the operation altogether. It’s for the best. Meanwhile, college players are performing on national television in crowded arenas, high-pressure situations where winning matters. This stage can make or break a player, but so can losing horribly in an empty gym.
All of which makes me think about Buzelis, who was seriously considering attending North Carolina before deciding to join the Ignite. I sat courtside next to Tate Frazier, host of One Shining Podcast and a North Carolina alumnus, for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in Los Angeles. Tate mentioned that if Buzelis had chosen North Carolina, the school probably never would have pursued Ingram out of the transfer portal. It’s true. Because Buzelis would have been playing Ingram’s exact role as the floor-spacing forward who could handle the ball.
Maybe Buzelis would have underwhelmed in the role, just as he did for the Ignite when he made under 30 percent of his 3s. Or perhaps he would’ve flourished when playing with superior talent that could’ve put him in a better position to succeed.
The Ignite was a worthy experiment. But the NBA was right to shut it down because it was undeserving of prospects like Buzelis, who could have been suiting up and maybe even thriving in Chapel Hill.
10. Does PJ Hall have potential?
Clemson senior big man PJ Hall stood out in the West regional by impacting the game with defensive energy and by facilitating on offense. Hall set strong screens and spread the ball around (even if it resulted in only two assists).
Hall’s lack of a proven jumper holds me back from falling in love with him as a prospect. He made just 32.6 percent of his 3s in four years at Clemson and went 1-for-5 against Arizona and 1-for-4 against Alabama. But it’s easy to see his potential since he’s a 78 percent shooter from the line with a soft touch on hook shots. There’s an NBA player in there if he can figure out how to shoot.
11. Dalton Knecht makes the case.
Knecht scored 23 in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, 26 in the Sweet 16, and then 37 in the Elite Eight. All were excellent performances to cap off his tremendous season as Tennessee’s go-to scorer (he averaged 21.7 points over the year). But the game that’ll stick in my mind came when he had just 18 points on 18 shots in the win Tennessee eked out over Texas in the second round.
Knecht got bottled up for the majority of that game. Texas has a bunch of long-armed athletes, and they shaded attention toward him throughout both halves. But Knecht came through late in ways that I bet will resemble his NBA role, at least to start his career. He made three particularly tough buckets in the second half: He ran off a screen, then pump-faked a 3-pointer before driving into the lane for a nice layup; he back cut into a dunk; and he hit a nasty 3-pointer off a screen in the corner.
It represented how Knecht doesn’t need touches to make an impact, which is why, as a 6-foot-6 scoring wing, he can fit seamlessly into any NBA offense. This makes him a high-floor player because at worst he’ll be able to drive off a closeout, or run a secondary pick-and-roll, or bring the ball up the floor to make a play. The Grayson Allen comparison is popular for this reason. But if the on-ball stuff develops well beyond Allen’s level, then he could be a primary scorer on a team, maybe more like a Desmond Bane type of guy.
The Volunteers’ journey ended with an Elite Eight loss to Purdue; Knecht stood out as the lone bright spot in a tough game. His unique path from Northeastern Juco through Northern Colorado and then Tennessee has been long and winding. Yet, for Knecht, this is merely the beginning.